Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

When did they ever say that Austin will make the Semi? (Hard to change something that was never said.)

In the Q3 shareholder deck they only said the Semi would be made in Nevada:

View attachment 899408

In the Q2 deck the location for the Semi production was still listed as TBD.

Was going to respond with the same thing. I believe the only time the Semi and Austin have been mentioned in the same sentence was a very old comment from Elon. Since then, there's been tons of anecdotal evidence that Semi will be made in Nevada.

 

[Rarity]

OK, that's two politicians confirming the investment (Nevada Gov. and White House). Can't wait to hear what Tesla has to say about it! I wonder if the Nevada Gov. got his days mixed up and Tesla was set to announce Wednesday at the earnings call rather than today. I mean, Tesla is in a quiet period??

Could also be that the announcement is today. Apparently, Elon just got off the stand in San Francisco at about noon Pacific time.

 

[navguy12]

That may be because of more difficult to refine tar sands. EIA.gov should have the numbers for the US.

Fair enough.

I did a simple Google search and found this re Texas:

I won’t belabour the point beyond this; our opinions differ on how much electricity is used by the refinery industry to make each litre/gallon of gasoline/diesel.

The eight year old YouTube video claimed that the true figures were kept public (by the UN) until 2005.

Texas/Alberta both consume a gross amount of electricity out of proportion to their respective populations.

 

[MC3OZ]

That was partly my question - and thanks for your response. I am not doubting Tesla's manufacturing prowess, ability to sell cars at industry leading margins, or ability to continue to grow. I'm more concerned about how achievable it is to go from 1.3M vehicles to 20M vehicles in 8 years with the current line up, factories, etc given what happened in December with cars at the higher price points. I also believe that other car companies (whomever survives) will likely stick around because they've made Tesla-like improvements to manufacturing, etc.

The question was more regarding those who do a DCF on Tesla and are possibly reconsidering the number of vehicle sold several years out given recent inputs. If you think Q4 or 2022 was an outlier, then the goal maybe moves back a year. If you think the s-curve starts levelling off, then the entry point into the stock becomes more important. Again - this is more for the valuation argument given there's a contingent of folks here who are probably still up a ton with the stock in the low $100s, and others who could be down 50% or more.

From here the majoity of the production capacity expansion will be for cheaper Gen3 models.

These will be new factories, but in some cases located at existing factory sites.

The lower price unlocks additional demand.

For 20M per year 12-15M are these Gen3 models.

In relation to timing, that can be speeded up by constructing factories in parallel. I have also concluded that Gen3 is likely to be capex efficient, with easier, faster, to build factories.

What I expect is 3-4 Gen3 models, with each model being bult in 4-8 factories.

Why Gen3 is happening now, and can be done as a rapid ramp, is 4680 cell production.

 

[Ogre]

When did they ever say that Austin will make the Semi? (Hard to change something that was never said.)

In the Q3 shareholder deck they only said the Semi would be made in Nevada:

View attachment 899408

In the Q2 deck the location for the Semi production was still listed as TBD.

I was under the impression semi production would be in Texas as well and swear it came from Tesla management. I am too lazy/ don‘t care to try and chase it down though. Likely some vlogger made an assumption and some of us picked up on it.

Only thing which is a little bit of a bummer is I’d assumed they had been making progress on the Semi facility for the past year but they hadn’t even broken ground. Self own I guess.

 

[Mengy]

When did they ever say that Austin will make the Semi? (Hard to change something that was never said.)

In the Q3 shareholder deck they only said the Semi would be made in Nevada:

View attachment 899408

In the Q2 deck the location for the Semi production was still listed as TBD.

I could have sworn Elon or someone else at Tesla stated the Semi would be made in Austin?

Looking back over the quarter reports though it's always been officially listed as either TBD or United States.

 

[Max Plaid]

Yes, but that just begs the question, why didn't he follow through and actually use his SpaceX shares to buy Tesla? My memory is fuzzy on the sequence of events, but the Saudi deal fell through quickly, and then what happened? Did Elon spend some time trying to pull together another consortium of investors?

He told me on Twitter that one of the main reasons he didn't go ahead with it was because they didn't realise that most investors would be excluded - all overseas would be out, most retail out, etc.

 

[JRP3]

I won’t belabour the point beyond this; our opinions differ on how much electricity is used by the refinery industry to make each litre/gallon of gasoline/diesel.

The eight year old YouTube video claimed that the true figures were kept public (by the UN) until 2005.

Texas/Alberta both consume a gross amount of electricity out of proportion to their respective populations.

The only relevant data is electricity consumed vs amount of oil refined. I found this EPA paper from 2007 on refinery energy consumption that shows between 4-5% of energy input for refining as electricity. Charts on page 6 and 10

https://archive.epa.gov/sectors/web/pdf/ch3-11.pdf

 

[Artful Dodger]

Is there a source, that anyone can point to, that talks about when and where the Joe and Elon Giga Semi announcement will be made?

Tesla to unveil plans for $3.5 billion Tesla Semi plant in Northern Nevada: Governor | teslarati.com

Tesla to announce $3.5 billion Tesla Semi plant in Northern NV: Governor

The governor referenced Tesla's reported plans for a $3.5 billion Northern Nevada, which will be used for the production of the Tesla Semi.

www.teslarati.com

 

[MP3Mike]

I was under the impression semi production would be in Texas as well and swear it came from Tesla management.

I could have sworn Elon or someone else at Tesla stated the Semi would be made in Austin?

I think at some point they said something along the lines of "The location for Semi production hasn't been decided yet but it could possibly be at Giga Nevada or Giga Texas."

Only thing which is a little bit of a bummer is I’d assumed they had been making progress on the Semi facility for the past year but they hadn’t even broken ground.

I think that the best guidance we have gotten for that was on the Q3 call:

As I think everyone knows at this point, it takes about a year to ramp up production. So, we expect to see significant -- we're tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America.

So 2023 will probably be low volume. But probably not anywhere near as low as Troy is claiming, he is saying to expect no more than 200 in 2023. (And as usual he states it as fact, not as his opinion.)

 

[space_s3x]

I could have sworn Elon or someone else at Tesla stated the Semi would be made in Austin?

Looking back over the quarter reports though it's always been officially listed as either TBD or United States.

Yes, Q2 2020:

we're going to be doing a major factory there, and it's also where we'll be doing Cybertruck there, the Tesla Semi, and we'll be doing Model 3 and Y for the eastern half of North America.

 

[Ogre]

I think at some point they said something along the lines of "The location for Semi production hasn't been decided yet but it could possibly be at Giga Nevada or Giga Texas."

Could be, doesn’t really matter too much. EDIT: Thank you @space_s3x

As I think everyone knows at this point, it takes about a year to ramp up production. So, we expect to see significant -- we're tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America.

This is actually where the bummer part is. When they said that, I was under the impression they were already partly done with the facility and that goal seemed reasonable. Knowing they haven’t broken ground, 50k units in 2024 seems unrealistic. Getting the factory built by next year seems possible, but ramping up enough volume to produce 50k in FY 2024? Does that mean planned capacity is more than 50k? Or they plan on building the factory in less than a year and have it ramping up before the beginning of the year?

I’m a lot more cynical of that goal at this point.

 

[MP3Mike]

This is actually where the bummer part is. When they said that, I was under the impression they were already partly done with the facility and that goal seemed reasonable. Knowing they haven’t broken ground, 50k units in 2024 seems unrealistic. Getting the factory built by next year seems possible, but ramping up enough volume to produce 50k in FY 2024? Does that mean planned capacity is more than 50k? Or they plan on building the factory in less than a year and have it ramping up before the beginning of the year?

I think we will have a better idea in the next ~24 hours. If they announce they are using an existing building shell, 50k is probably reasonable for 2024. Of course, they could be shooting for an annual rate of ~100k, in which case ~50k for 2024 still seems reasonable.

 

[Ogre]

I think we will have a better idea in the next ~24 hours. If they announce they are using an existing building shell, 50k is probably reasonable for 2024. Of course, they could be shooting for an annual rate of ~100k, in which case ~50k for 2024 still seems reasonable.

Another possibility is they were planning on building it in Texas (see the comment above from @space_s3x) and sometime in the past few months they decided to move production to Nevada to eliminate shipping cells. We‘ve long thought they planned on using 4680s for the semi, very possible the shift to 2170s was a recent decision.

Very curious to hear if they bring up the Semi on the Q4 call.

 

[DarkandStormy]

When did they ever say that Austin will make the Semi? (Hard to change something that was never said.)

Tesla will build Cybertruck factory in Austin, Texas

Construction has already begun.

www.theverge.com

Tesla Semi shows up at its future home of Gigafactory Texas with more Model Ys and possible new colors spotted

A new drone flyover of Tesla Gigafactory Texas shows a lot of activity, including a Tesla Semi, a lot more...

electrek.co

Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2020 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

TSLA earnings call for the period ending June 30, 2020.

www.fool.com

2020 Q2 Earnings Call
Elon Musk: So if anyone is interested in looking at a Giga Texas with engineering, production, whatever the case may be, please let us know. This is -- we're going to be doing a major factory there, and it's also where we'll be doing Cybertruck there, the Tesla Semi. And we'll be doing Model 3 and Y for the eastern half of North America. Now at the same time, I want to say, we will continue to grow in California, but we expect California to do Model S and X for worldwide consumption and 3 and Y for the western half of North America.

And then we think probably also the Tesla Roadster, a future program, would also make sense in California. So I think this is a nice split between Texas and California. And just to emphasize, we'll continue to grow in California, but we'll be creating a massive factory and Cybertruck and Semi programs in Texas. And I also want to just do a shout-out to Tesla and just say thank you very much for the Tulsa team, the economic development team and the governor.

Gee, I don't know, only when they announced the Giga Texas location and on the subsequent Earnings Call.

 

[zach_]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618016066504118272

 

[Singuy]

Could be, doesn’t really matter too much. EDIT: Thank you @space_s3x

This is actually where the bummer part is. When they said that, I was under the impression they were already partly done with the facility and that goal seemed reasonable. Knowing they haven’t broken ground, 50k units in 2024 seems unrealistic. Getting the factory built by next year seems possible, but ramping up enough volume to produce 50k in FY 2024? Does that mean planned capacity is more than 50k? Or they plan on building the factory in less than a year and have it ramping up before the beginning of the year?

I’m a lot more cynical of that goal at this point.

Pretty sure their goal is to hit 50k which is the capacity planned for Giga Nevada. The new facility will be additive.

 

[Madmolecule]

Again, given that I said nothing about Tesla holding patents, I'm unsure why you are asking me if that's what I'm claiming.

You seem also to be ignorant of the history on how the gigapress is a Tesla inspired innovation that they approached half a dozen manufacturers on, and only LK/IDRA responded... and that they built it together. So you may be of the opinion IDRA was the prime mover on this, but no evidence I've seen supports that.

But, speaking of patents, are you aware of the one that Tesla filed nearly 4 years ago? While I was at it, I also did some of your homework on alloy patents.

Are we done with this?

Thanks for doing my homework, the article clearly says just because they filed one that does not mean they received one. Obviously, I’m not as educated as you, and actually ignorant, as you pointed out on the history of the gigapress. Obviously, you are ignorant of IDRA history in the making presses, I would imagine you believe they were pressing pizzas until Elon came along. But thank you for educating me. I’m always willing to learn.

are we done with this? I figured I’d collect a few more down votes, there so painful.

 

[Ogre]

(From Tesla Twitter)
Today, we’re announcing $3.6B of new investment in Giga Nevada. - 4M sq ft of new manufacturing footprint - 3k additional team members - 2 new manufacturing facilities: a 100 GWh 4680 cell factory & our first high-volume Semi factory

(From Tesla Twitter)
BREAKING: @Tesla has officially announced it will spend $3.6B to expand Gigafactory Nevada, adding 3,000 new team members & two new factories. Included in the plans is new 100 GWh 4680 cell factory with capacity to produce enough batteries for 2M light duty vehicles annually)

OOooo. More than just the semi, 100 GWh of 4680 production to feed Fremont.

That’s pretty big. And if this is coming out now… what are they saving for March 1st???

Edit: Maybe this also means they have the kinks worked out of 4680 production and we’ll see the ramp in Texas take off.

 

[MP3Mike]

Knowing they haven’t broken ground, 50k units in 2024 seems unrealistic. Getting the factory built by next year seems possible, but ramping up enough volume to produce 50k in FY 2024? Does that mean planned capacity is more than 50k? Or they plan on building the factory in less than a year and have it ramping up before the beginning of the year?

Well that was quick: Continuing Our Investment in Nevada | Tesla

$3.6 Billion of New Investment

We will be investing over $3.6 billion more to continue growing Gigafactory Nevada, adding 3,000 new team members and two new factories: a 100 GWh 4680 cell factory (with capacity to produce enough batteries for 2 million light duty vehicles annually), as well as our first high-volume Semi factory. Semi is our fully electric combination truck, with 500 miles of range and energy consumption of less than 2 KWh per mile.

Since the ground has already been prepped, and utilities in place, it probably won't take too long to expand the existing Giga Nevada building. (Especially since they already have the plans ready from building out the 4680 cell factory at Giga Texas.) Maybe this will finally complete the building.

Has anybody tracked how long it takes them to add a module each time they expand?