Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Agree that timing seems kinda 'planned', but even if this had any truth to it, would Elon really respond with 'Yes'?

Elon doesn't comment on every news, so it's either "No" or nothing most of the time.

 

[Mengy]

While my long term shares are totally in tact, I sold off my more recent dip buying shares today at $144 based on my macro outlook and my expectations on the tone Elon will set on this call. ::ducks::

View attachment 899722

I have three accounts where I'm simply holding my TSLA until sometime past 2030, possibly longer, BUT I have one account where I buy TSLA low and sell higher in a day/swing trading style. It's a "fun" account for me but I enjoy the challenge of it, plus I've paid for many frivolous stuff due to that account!

 

[Singuy]

While my long term shares are totally in tact, I sold off my more recent dip buying shares today at $144 based on my macro outlook and my expectations on the tone Elon will set on this call. ::ducks::

View attachment 899722

Lots of fear out there for this earnings call considering how difficult it was to hold Tsla the last 3 months. People are used to Tsla falling off a cliff no matter the news or report.

So I guess the contrarian take is that when everyone thinks Tsla will tank, it'll do the opposite.

 

[traxila]

Seems like EM is teasing a Buy Back with his Bee Bee tweets? Today would be a good time to announce it.

and 69 others - formerly known as captkerosene. (Tired of people thinking I work in the oil industry ... not that that's bad!)

I thought you loved the smell of kerosene in the morning.

Nothing like it.

 

[Ogre]

I'm not sure how selling additional shares of Twitter would have any negative impact on TSLA... So I'm not sure what gain the news would have tried to get...

Doesn’t need to make sense. People are super gun shy about Musk, Twitter, and Tesla stock sales. Just having Elon Musk in the same headline as “Stock Sales” almost certainly had hundreds of haters penning their next “Musk is a liar” Tweets again.

The first headline in particular doesn’t mention Musk is talking about selling Twitter shares, just that he’s looking to raise $3b. How has Musk raised money over the past year? By selling Tesla.

 

[jkirkwood001]

In advance of the Q4 earnings call (no video link yet?), and further to my PPM in late 2021, here is the best available summary of global auto sales through 2022:

My take-aways:

• By one measure, the Tesla Model Y (851 K) is now the top selling vehicle in the world.
  ...or is it? If you combine the new SUV-style "Corolla Cross" sales (383 K) with those of the well-known Corolla sedan (842 K), and Chevy Silverado (574 K) with the near identical GMC Sierra (296 K), both outsold the Model Y. Each of these pairs is sometimes listed together and sometimes separate, which messes with the ranking. Marklines doesn't even include the Corolla Cross in the same vehicle category as the Corolla. Excluding the Cross, Corolla sales are down 43% since 2019!
• As before, I care much more about EV sales crushing ICEs sales than I care about Tesla crushing other EVs. The mission demands that sales of all EVs grow faster.
• The Top 10 now legitimately includes 3 EVs:
  • #1 (3?) Tesla Model Y
  • #7 Tesla Model 3
  • #9 Wuling Hong Guang MINI EV
• The Ford F-150's (5th @ 771 K) sales are down 20% since 2018 (1.1 M)
• The dominance of EVs is inevitable. It's going more slowly than we'd all like, but ALL OEMs are seeing declines in sales of their ICEs, and (slow) growth of most of their EVs. For example, the following have dropped out of the Top 10:
  • Ford Focus (99 K) is down 85% since 2017 (672 K)
  • Honda HR-V (221 K) is down 64% since 2019 (622 K)
  • Honda Civic (386 K) is down 54% since 2018 (834 K)
  • Nissan Rogue (207 K) is down 54% since 2018 (453 K)
  • VW Tiguan (418 K) is down 48% since 2018 (804 K)

Sources:

• Marklines.com, the leading global automotive database
• focus2move.com, another global automotive database. Used as validation only, as their most recent articles ranking global 2022 sales were posted in November?!?
• The Marklines' data was supported by spot checks with other early-January vendor and industry posts. But posts I've seen are invariably country-limited (e.g. USA only) or brand totals, not by individual model. So Marklines was the most comprehensive and consistent.

Caveats:

• The data is not 100% complete. Marklines has data for all the manufacturers for all the large markets. But as of today, there are gaps, such as no Denmark sales figures for Toyota. But comparing to full data from previous years, I'd estimate this represents 98% of actual 2022 global sales.
• BYD does not appear in this filter (the top 10 model sales plus significant EVs), but I do have the BYD Song as 13th top seller (478 K). BYD does not separate its BEVs sales from its PHEV, HV, or even ICE sales, so it's hard to tell how many BEVs BYD sells.

 

[MartinAustin]

I've got some cash ready to buy TSLA. Should I wait until tomorrow? (i.e. the stock fell) or buy it today before the close?

 

[ZsoZso]

Agree that timing seems kinda 'planned', but even if this had any truth to it, would Elon really respond with 'Yes'?

Also note, that the story claimed he is raising "upto $3B" and the question was whether it is "accurate" to which he replied No.
So, if he is actually raising say $4B, then the story is not accurate yet the effect is even worse and the negation gives false hope.
I am not claiming there is any substance to the story as opposed to being pure FUD, just pointing out that his "denial" is much more nuanced than stating the whole thing is just hot air made up by some journalist.

 

[Nocturnal]

Seems like EM is teasing a Buy Back with his Bee Bee tweets? Today would be a good time to announce it.

and 69 others - formerly known as captkerosene. (Tired of people thinking I work in the oil industry ... not that that's bad!)

Playing off "To be or not to be"?

If something is half a B, then necessarily the other half isn't a B.

Lots of fear out there for this earnings call considering how difficult it was to hold Tsla the last 3 months. People are used to Tsla falling off a cliff no matter the news or report.

So I guess the contrarian take is that when everyone thinks Tsla will tank, it'll do the opposite.

I didn't want to post it, but this is the first time in quite a while where everyone isn't falling all over themselves expecting blowouts etc.

 

[phantasms]

I've got some cash ready to buy TSLA. Should I wait until tomorrow? (i.e. the stock fell) or buy it today before the close?

Half now. Half later?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I've got some cash ready to buy TSLA. Should I wait until tomorrow? (i.e. the stock fell) or buy it today before the close?

Depends on the timeframe you intend to hold those shares

 

[MartinAustin]

In advance of the Q4 earnings call (no video link yet?), and further to my PPM in late 2021, here is the best available summary of global auto sales for 2022:

View attachment 899729

My take-aways:

• By one measure, the Tesla Model Y (851 K) is now the top selling vehicle in the world.
  ...or is it? If you combine the new SUV-style "Corolla Cross" sales (383 K) with those of the well-known Corolla sedan (842 K), and Chevy Silverado (574 K) with the near identical GMC Sierra (296 K), both outsold the Model Y. Each of these pairs is sometimes listed together and sometimes separate, which messes with the ranking. Marklines doesn't even include the Corolla Cross in the same vehicle category as the Corolla. Excluding the Cross, Corolla sales are down 43% since 2019!
• As before, I care much more about EV sales crushing ICEs sales than I care about Tesla crushing other EVs. The mission demands that sales of all EVs grow faster.
• The Top 10 now legitimately includes 3 EVs:
  • #1 (3?) Tesla Model Y
  • #8 Tesla Model 3
  • #10 Wuling Hong Guang MINI EV
• The dominance of EVs is inevitable. It's going more slowly than we'd all like, but ALL OEMs are seeing declines in sales of their ICEs, and (slow) growth of most of their EVs. For example, the following have dropped out of the Top 10:
  • Ford Focus (99 K) is down 85% since 2017 (672 K)
  • Honda HR-V (221 K) is down 64% since 2019 (622 K)
  • Honda Civic (386 K) is down 54% since 2018 (834 K)
  • Nissan Rogue (207 K) is down 54% since 2018 (453 K)
  • VW Tiguan (418 K) is down 48% since 2018 (804 K)

Sources:

• Marklines.com, the leading global automotive database
• focus2move.com, another global automotive database. Used as validation only, as their most recent articles ranking global 2022 sales were posted in November?!?
• The Marklines' data was supported by spot checks with other early-January vendor and industry posts. But posts I've seen are invariably country-limited (e.g. USA only) or brand totals, not by individual model. So Marklines was the most comprehensive and consistent.

Caveats:

• The data is not 100% complete. Marklines has data for all the manufacturers for all the large markets. But as of today, there are gaps, such as no Denmark sales figures for Toyota. But comparing to full data from previous years, I'd estimate this represents 98% of actual 2022 global sales.
• BYD does not appear in this filter (the top 10 model sales plus significant EVs), but I do have the BYD Song as 13th top seller (478 K). BYD does not separate its BEVs sales from its PHEV, HV, or even ICE sales, so it's hard to tell how many BEVs BYD sells.

Those "SKU combining" practices are subjective. One could argue that we can combine Tesla Models 3+Y, too.

We're just in an interim time period before the Model Y is the best-selling vehicle no matter how you look at it.

It's already the world's best-selling vehicle by revenue, I think.

 

[Ogre]

I've got some cash ready to buy TSLA. Should I wait until tomorrow? (i.e. the stock fell) or buy it today before the close?

Should have bought this AM if you were buying today.

I like @phantasms strategy at this point.

 

[Knightshade]

Those "SKU combining" practices are subjective. One could argue that we can combine Tesla Models 3+Y, too.

We're just in an interim time period before the Model Y is the best-selling vehicle no matter how you look at it.

I think if they come off the same exact line and the differences are largely cosmetic stuff like badging or color dash trim or offering a given option or not, they should properly be lumped together. It's possible to order a trim of either one that is mechanically the same vehicle.

The Sierra/Silverado seems to fit that... the 3/Y does not as the body casting is different for one thing, weight, suspension, etc.

As you note the Y likely passes all these others even using the combo method pretty soon (sometime this year if Austin and Berlin ramp reasonably)

It's already the world's best-selling vehicle by revenue, I think.

By profit certainly, possibly not total revenue yet as those trucks can be pretty pricey,

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I didn't realize the cost was that high but a 5-20 outlet will also accept a standard 15 amp plug.

We use a tesla 5-20 adapter in campgrounds that have 5-20 receptacles. The tesla gets 16 amps at 120 instead of 12 amps at 120. Cuts the charge time down buy a quarter.

The other cord is our trailer.

 

[WolfHero]

Half now. Half later?

Tomorrow stock jumps: damn, I should've bought all yesterday.
Tomorrow stock tanks: damn, I should've waited until now.

 

[phantasms]

Tomorrow stock jumps: damn, I should've bought all yesterday.
Tomorrow stock tanks: damn, I should've waited until now.

That mindset is why most people lose at trading.

 

[2daMoon]

Half now. Half later?

Is that what they call a spread?

 

[Motor Mouth]

Tomorrow stock jumps: damn, I should've bought all yesterday.
Tomorrow stock tanks: damn, I should've waited until now.

5 years from now: "Honey, I'm a freaking genius investor!"

 

[Singuy]

Tomorrow stock jumps: damn, I should've bought all yesterday.
Tomorrow stock tanks: damn, I should've waited until now.

Also too often stock tanks AH and then makes a run for 2 weeks straight, or stock spikes AH and then tanks the next few days.