Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

I just watched a video that commented on the potential of Model 3 Highland to Osborne other Model 3 sales.

This is a prime example of muddled thinking, Highland will not Osborne other Model 3 sales, simply because it will not initially be priced low enough to do that.

Higher margins on Highland Model 3 will offset the Highland ramp and partially offset the Cybertruck ramp.

Model Y should also get the Highland treatment ideally before Gen3 cars are shipping.

Gen3 cars will not Osborne Model 3 & Y, because 3 & Y will have some room to cut prices due to higher margins and Gen3 will initially be the right price, with higher initial prices offsetting the ramp.

In simple terms Model 3 & Y are "a bit more car" the price delta will reflect what customers are prepared to pay for that and can be adjusted at both ends.

Model 3 & Y inventory building and Gen3 flying out of the delivery centres, raise Gen3 prices and cut 3 & Y prices.

Tesla generally has enough demand and enough margin to match production and deliveries.

 

[Artful Dodger]

@farzyness lays down the smack on Big Auto Dealerships.

This Competitive Edge Saves TESLA Billions - CLIP #TSLA

 

[Max Plaid]

My skis, my climbing partners, my business partners, my boats, my cars, my bank balance, all are very clear where I am on the risk/reward line; oh and the ex's [*]

If you want to bring your super-dooper ding-dang rich-mobile over to the lanes here, we can see how you feel about some not-so-micro-scratches in your clear coat. It'd be a blast. On your dime. There is already a charger in the driveway, waiting and running off the solar, on my dime.

So far there ain't been nothing better for these lanes than either the old Delta HF or the 205GTi or 1.9DTi. And in some hands the Golf GTI and (big memories) the final evolution of the Alfa 33 1.7 16vi of which I had the final estate that came to the UK (great engine, less brakes, so all about judging the gap size). All of which are pocket rockets. It will be great when (if) a Tesla 2/Z arrives and can take the knocks and squeeze into the same tight corners and rather abrasive hedges and in time become another numero sacre.

More seriously, only half is not much. Size does matter, and bigger is not always better. Depreciation curves on a Tesla have yet to experience our hedges as most are still living a life of pampered luxury around here, which is not at all my intention.

But the same size constraints that make for a good fit in the lanes, also make for a good fit in a very constrained parking environment. That is the real issue to be faced in accessing a very significant market that is second only in size to the SUV segment. ("Medium" car C-segment is 12m worldwide. The next segment down is the "small" B-segment, typified by Clio at 7m worldwide. Sum them and you have 19m/yr which is almost as significant as the SUV segment of 25m that the Y targets.) This is a big market opportunity waiting for Tesla when the time is right.


* that is, the surviving ones.

Sorry, totally OT, but my favourite cars in my youth were Alfas, we had a 33 Permanent 4, which was fun, then I got one of the first new GTV's was the 2.0TS - that thing was a blast, also had a 164 V6 Super-Lusso, that was quite a beast - drove that down to the Amalfi Coast in 1997, my first foray to the continent. Of course they put the V6 into the GTV after a few years, which I would have loved, but I'd already moved to Belgium and was getting company cars, still managed to get a 156 1.9JTD as a company car

Great cars to drive, also great for the garages on the regular, but unexpected maintenance costs...

 

[Ogre]

Just some additional thoughts on this idea.

I just watched a video that commented on the potential of Model 3 Highland to Osborne other Model 3 sales.

Tesla would have to promote the next revision in order for anything to be "Osborned". They never do so it won't be an issue. Those of us in the community know the name "Highland". Even fewer seem to really understand what it means. The assumption seems to be "Newer is better", but the reality is Tesla's primary goal is trying to reduce costs, not make a snazzier vehicle. Sometimes (Radar, USS, seat lumbar support) that means reducing features or complexity with little to no benefit to the end user aside from that lower price.

A few people got all excited about the 4680 Model Y and it turned out to be a giant nothing burger as far as buyers are concerned. It's likely it'll be a huge win for Tesla in the long run, but very few people who bought the new structural pack Model Y are turning cartwheels over their slightly shorter range, slightly less expensive Model Y.

In the legacy auto world, "New" always means they pile on features and new styling. In Tesla's world, sometimes it means the reverse, along with better pricing.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If you want to bring your super-dooper ding-dang rich-mobile over to the lanes here, we can see how you feel about some not-so-micro-scratches in your clear coat.

Lol! Get it wrapped. It's bloody cheap.

https://www.3m.co.uk/3M/en_GB/graphics-and-signage-uk/paint-protection-films/

 

[borland]

Tesla Megafactory... Per Tesla 2 hours ago...

At $1.2M USD per Megapack, that's $12B USD per year.

Megafactory

 

[Gigapress]

Tesla Megafactory... Per Tesla 2 hours ago...
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At $1.2M USD per Megapack, that's $12B per year.

Much more than $1.2M per Megapack XL. It’s a minimum of $1.6M each for bulk orders of the 4-hour MXLs delivered to California and up to $2.0M for 2-hour elsewhere.

That’s also not including any revenue for installation, maintenance, and software services.

Order Megapack | Tesla

Massive Energy Storage

www.tesla.com

 

[petit_bateau]

Sorry, totally OT, but my favourite cars in my youth were Alfas, we had a 33 Permanent 4, which was fun, then I got one of the first new GTV's was the 2.0TS - that thing was a blast, also had a 164 V6 Super-Lusso, that was quite a beast - drove that down to the Amalfi Coast in 1997, my first foray to the continent. Of course they put the V6 into the GTV after a few years, which I would have loved, but I'd already moved to Belgium and was getting company cars, still managed to get a 156 1.9JTD as a company car

Great cars to drive, also great for the garages on the regular, but unexpected maintenance costs...

Yeah, I recognise all of that on the Alfas, and this was after they'd started dipping the bodies.

The flat 4 in the 33 was crackling, far more than the body-shell or the brakes could handle. Especially in my final 1.7 IE 16V evolution. I could feel the body warping in the lanes, and after the first few bends the brakes were toast. All in all that was a sign that Alfa (and FIAT) were two model cycles behind VW by that time due to lack of investment. Terminal.

Which again is to come back to a serious point. The legacy auto companies simply cannot stand the pace any more in terms of R&D and product development. They are goner's in the new world. Either the bank-of-taxpayer will prop them up for political reasons or they will go under. This cycle is well known in the capital goods market - most especially in automotive - but this time around the switch to the BEV paradigm - and the new minimum scale point that comes with it - is making it even more painful for the losers as their old playbook is now worthless : dealers, spares, distribution, brand are all literally of negative value.

 

[Gigapress]

Ellie in Space video on Boxabl.

You may have read some of my previous posts on this company. Elon bought one of the initial prototypes and has it in his backyard as a guest unit in Starbase. I still believe Tesla should install their home energy products (solar, powerwall, chargers, HVAC someday) in a factory on an assembly line, which obviously requires someone to solve the problem of building houses in a factory. I think Boxabl has that solution. This shift would radically improve Tesla’s gross margin and scalability.

Boxabl in this video announced they’re already about to lease a third factory with a fourth very big one planned probably for Texas.

Also they’re showing Tesla Powerwall and car charger on one of the new multistory home prototypes. First time I’ve seen that.

 

[ZeApelido]

Musk won.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621643571227918337

 

[jerry33]

Musk won.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621643571227918337

At least the lawyers made money Zero sympathy for those who brought the lawsuit.

 

[Prunesquallor]

"Funding secured" has gone to the jury.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621547465546801156

THAT didn’t take long!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621644196703604737

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

Musk won.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621643571227918337

years ago.
too many US lawsuits are garbage. and Tax uses

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Musk won.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621643571227918337

Well that sure was fast jury deliberation

 

[Huskyf]

Now

Musk won.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621643571227918337

Musk need to attack the SEC and tell to give back is money !

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Gotta love how tens of millions of dollars was spent on this only for the jury to go into the back for an hour and come to the conclusion that this is dumb as hell

 

[Rarity]

Gotta love how tens of millions of dollars was spent on this only for the jury to go into the back for an hour and come to the conclusion that this is dumb as hell

Millions for defense, not a penny in tribute!

 

[wipster]

68 minutes per unit all year is 7.7k, but they call out 10k/ yr (53 minutes) so maybe total includes GF1?
However, that volume increase is offset by pricing base MP:
10k units per year * $1.8M (average of 2 and 4 hour units without installation at 100 qty) = $18B
From there, add on installation at a different margin.

Before they pulled the public estimator:

Can't they make more than one unit at a time? Think assembly line. Just cause it takes 68 minutes to build a single unit doesn't mean it's their actual rate or throughput does it?

 

[Ogre]

I've wondered how they were going to pursue this since there was no argument of "Fiduciary Duty" but haven't been following the trial too much. They tried to push for fraud, but that's a tough line to tow. The definition of fraud typically means the perpetrator does it to make a profit. Musk was essentially mouthing off and since he didn't dump any shares in the aftermath made no profits from his comments.

I do find it funny that his lawyers also said essentially "People don't believe everything Musk says" as a defense. "Your honor, my client can't be guilty, he has no credibility!"

Anyhow... hopefully this is behind us now.

Perhaps his lawyers used this tweet in his defense. After all, who in their right mind would invest based on the words a man speaks while on the crapper?

 

[MXWing]

Musk won.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621643571227918337

What would have happened had he lost?

Haven't seen an answer to that so quite curious on what would have been the consequence.