Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Master Plan part 3 presented on March 1st as well: Link to Tweet

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Cross posting from the Elon/Twitter thread because this has come up before here and is important for investors to know.

TL;DW - Elon's antics did not do brand damage to Tesla in 2022, and in Q4 specifically. Cars are selling in increasing % and number, despite "political ramifications".

Gordo's looking a little under the weather lately

 

[capster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623152067547394050

Exciting! Master Plan 3 should be most interesting.

I hope they’ll also announce that a number, say 3 to 12, Optimus prototypes are engaged in productive work at a Tesla factory—even if it’s "just" unpacking parts and putting them out for assembly.

 

[MrMoo]

Master Plan part 3 presented on March 1st as well: Link to Tweet

View attachment 904562

Master Plan part 3:
Sell all my Tesla shares to buy some seriously crazy energy companies.

 

[Big Time]

Pretty exciting tweet. March 1st can’t come soon enough!

 

[Krugerrand]

Thank The Almighty! Another complaint by some that can be removed from the menu.

 

[CanadaEV]

“Master Plan 3, the path to a fully sustainable energy
future for Earth will be presented on March 1.”

All aboard!!!!!

 

[Ogre]

Thank The Almighty! Another complaint by some that can be removed from the menu.

It’s just a pause in the complaining. A regroup even. Cease complaining about the lack of MP3, shift to complaining about why launch MP3 when MP2 isn’t even finished. At the same time, secondary lines of complaining start. MP3 isn’t fleshed out enough. Each bullet item becomes a complaint fork: Bullet item 2 isn’t very specific, Bullet point 3 is anatomically impossible and illegal in most states, There is no bullet point #1. Then the subtle shift to “Where is MP4?”

 

[Artful Dodger]

I hope they’ll also demonstrate announce that a number, say 3 to 12, Optimus prototypes are engaged in productive work at a Tesla factory

FTFY.

Cheers!

 

[betstarship]

Did a little digging:

Tesla Unveil to 1st Delivery timeline (in years)

Model S - 2009 to 2012 (3 years)
Model X - 2012 to 2015 (3 years)
Model 3 - 2016 to 2017 (1 year)
Model Y - 2019 to 2020 (1 year)
Model Semi - 2017 to 2022 (5 years)
Model R - 2017 to 2023 (?) (6 years?)
Model C - 2019 to 2023 (4 years)
Robotaxi - ?? to ??

Other known products

Powerwall - 2015 to 2017 (2 years)
Solar Roof - 2016 to 2017 (1 year)
Megapack - 2019 to 2019 (0-1 year)
Dojo - 2021 to 2023 (?) (2 years?)
Optimus - 2022 to ??

Software (for sale)

Autopilot - 2014 to 2015 (1 year)
FSD - 2016 to 2016 (0-1 year)
Track Mode - 2018 (??)
Autobidder - 2020 (0-1 year)

This entire exercise makes me believe that whatever products Tesla unleashes on the next gen platform that's taking into account Cybertruck and Roadster are going to be a lot faster to develop and incredibly scalable. It's just like how the Model S and X informed the 3 and Y.

Also, Tesla is building a moat in hardware and waiting to unleash some fantastic software products in the future that'll no doubt create great margins.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Eff-Ess-Dee-11 Anthem:

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[MC3OZ]

Model Semi - 2017 to 2022 (5 years)

Roadster - 2017 to 3017 (1,000 years, but worth the wait ....)

 

[insaneoctane]

FSD - 2016 to 2016 (0-1 year)

Really?

 

[chrsk]

Don't get me wrong, I'm too are really looking forward to master plan 3 and investor day. However, don't these types of events almost every time end up with being something the broader marked does not understand? So a short term negative?

 

[MC3OZ]

Don't get me wrong, I'm too are really looking forward to master plan 3 and investor day. However, don't these types of events almost every time end up with being something the broader marked does not understand? So a short term negative?

This is my earlier post on that topic:- Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

 

[Cobbler]

.... So a short term negative?

Moody's will watch the event and say:

"Ooohh... Tesla just announced a new vehicle. This means we can't use the excuse anymore that Tesla's revenue is based on too few models. Geeez...we'll have to upgrade Tesla's credit rating to A- now"
Boom!! Stock Rockets to $420 before this summer

 

[Dutchie]

Stock has recovered a bit and now suddenly it seems that almost everyone is more jubelent than ever. I see this now in over hyping the event of March 1, as we have not gone through enough last year.

My advise is to keep your feet firmly on the ground and just see where it goes the coming months. Just see what Elon has to say on March 1 and don't get hyped-up by people posting here. Before you know it you will be thrown into the deep again, with investing your emergency fund (I am guilty of doing that last year) or even getting into margin.

 

[MartinAustin]

Tesla is this close to Toyota without:

• Large SUV that can actually go off road
• Pickup truck
• Minivan
• Sport coupe

Tesla is already almost past Toyota, and in Q4 Tesla probably did pass Toyota but we don’t have data so granular in this report. This happened despite Tesla not even having vehicles for segments that make up about one third of Toyota’s sales and despite much higher prices for the 3&Y than Toyota has for the Corolla, Camry and RAV-4. The Model 3 by itself is almost outselling the Corolla and Camry combined even though the Corolla is half the price.

If Tesla can extend their dominance to trucks, minivans and big SUVs, Tesla will sell far more vehicles than Toyota ever did in California. Globally, Toyota peaked at about 11 million cars sold in their best year. If California with its 17% EV adoption in 2022 is representative of where the whole world is going…

Illustrated nicely by Rob Maurer in his latest video today. I would expect Tesla and Toyota to be locked in a battle for #1 sales in California in 2023, based on what he shows

 

[Big Time]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623234148440887297

 

[chrsk]

Stock has recovered a bit and now suddenly it seems that almost everyone is more jubelent than ever. I see this now in over hyping the event of March 1, as we have not gone through enough last year.

My advise is to keep your feet firmly on the ground and just see where it goes the coming months. Just see what Elon has to say on March 1 and don't get hyped-up by people posting here. Before you know it you will be thrown into the deep again, with investing your emergency fund (I am guilty of doing that last year) or even getting into margin.

Combine that with a Master plan 3 that goes "over the head" of Wall street it might end up with a classic buy the rumor and sell the fact situation.