Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Max Plaid]

Thanks for those useful replies!

I'm on the Jag I-Pace forum (owning one) and recently there was a poster who has sold his I-Pace and bought a Model Y (built Berlin - 02/23). He is very happy with it but commented:-

"It is a brand new model, produced in Berlin/Brandenburg in calender week 02/2023. The quality is definitely improved compared to Shanghai models but there is enough room for further improvement." and also complained about the delivery experience (he has previously owned a Tesla a few years ago).

The delivery is disappointing but may be patchy and is a one-off experience but I'm disappointed to see that Berlin is also producing 'below par' cars - I thought the German cars would be Porsche/Audi-esque.

Is this a product of the factory, the design or the personnel making the cars?

Or maybe not generally true?

Can your friend be more specific of the issues? GF3 cars seem to be pretty good to me, my wife's M3P is close to perfect with just a minor rattle coming from the driver-side mirror/speaker area - never can find what that is. All the GF4 cars I've seen recently in the showroom look flawless, but didn't drive one yet - will know better next week when my wife gets her Quicksilver MYLR

On the other hand, Fremont cars still not great judging my my October build MX Plaid, but could be the other models are better, MX has always been the worst built of the lot

 

[Sunlight]

Can your friend be more specific of the issues? GF3 cars seem to be pretty good to me, my wife's M3P is close to perfect with just a minor rattle coming from the driver-side mirror/speaker area - never can find what that is. All the GF4 cars I've seen recently in the showroom look flawless, but didn't drive one yet - will know better next week when my wife gets her Quicksilver MYLR

On the other hand, Fremont cars still not great judging my my October build MX Plaid, but could be the other models are better, MX has always been the worst built of the lot

Better change your moniker lest you get tarred with the same brush!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I saw it - definitely did run twice in Austin. Reminded me of a poorly made anti-some-local-ordinance ad. Hurried and badly cut, really looked shoddy next to all the overproduced ads, and sounded as one sided as all those local issue ads. Even admitted NHTSA approves FSD. Will reinforce haters, will change few minds, IMO.

Unintended consequence for Dan O'Dowd: his expensive commericial will raise awareness of Tesla self-driving tech:

Farzad Mesbahi on Twitter: "Tesla FSD commercial: ELON MUSK IS TRYING TO KILL YOU WITH A SELF DRIVING CAR! Viewer: Wait Tesla has a car that can drive itself already?! $TSLA" / Twitter

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@farzyness Exactly. This will greatly increase public awareness that a Tesla can drive itself (supervised for now)." / Twitter​

 

[Favguy]

We switched from a Fremont-made Model X to a Shanghai-made Model Y LR to a Berlin-made P and with every vehicle the quality got a lot better.

My Made in Germany MYP from Oct 22 is extremely well built. Everything feels sturdy, no rattles or squeaking parts. Quality is easily comparible with BMW, Benz, etc.

Only issue I found over the last 10,000km is that the hood is slightly misaligned. That's it. It's crazy how good the car is.

I think your friend was just unlucky. My cousin also has a MYP from Berlin, also from October, and his car also has no issues so far.

I think people misunderstand the difference between quality and a "premium, opulent, feel", especially with regard to interiors. Many German cars have a very premium feeling cabin compared with the more Spartan Tesla interiors. This doesn't mean the quality is better, but it is what many perceive to be quality.

I personally test drove a Model Y, the quality was excellent all around, but I didn't like the interior at all, it feels "cheap" to me, but that's a perception and not related to actual quality of build but the extreme minimalism of the cabin. I much prefer the older S interiors to all the current Tesla models for the same reason.

 

[CYBRTRK420]

I think people misunderstand the difference between quality and a "premium, opulent, feel", especially with regard to interiors. Many German cars have a very premium feeling cabin compared with the more Spartan Tesla interiors. This doesn't mean the quality is better, but it is what many perceive to be quality.

I personally test drove a Model Y, the quality was excellent all around, but I didn't like the interior at all, it feels "cheap" to me, but that's a perception and not related to actual quality of build but the extreme minimalism of the cabin. I much prefer the older S interiors to all the current Tesla models for the same reason.

Yes, I am talking purely about build quality here. Whatever one sees as premium is completely subjective... Some like the "classic luxury" more, I like Tesla's modern luxury apporach but have to say that the Plaid S Interior is simply stunning. For me the best car interior i've seen. It's a nice combination of premium materials. interesting design and modern luxury.

 

[jw934]

Beautiful graphical Income statement comparison between Tesla and Toyota for the latest reported quarter,

https://i.redd.it/37cch9hzanha1.png

Link to the Reddit post, posted by the guy who wrote the software and made the tool available on his web site.


edit: another nice one, also from Reddit. Simpler to explain why is Tesla valued higher than Toyota to the lay.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1625069099586920448

https://twitter.com/x/status/1625070393496072193

Berlin subsidies:

 

[UkNorthampton]

EV discounts & demand/supply indicator for UK EVs (implications for Tesla as benchmark for EVs). Discounts from dealers across UK. Also shows ICE car supply problems much reduced or largely solved.

EVs with high discounts - Leaf (15.5%), iPace (9.5%), Zoe (9%) - these are older designs with limitations.

Otherwise, VW EV discounts lower than ICE VW discounts.

However this image captures two other VW Group brands - Audi & Cupra, ICE vs EV (highlighted). This shows how much larger the ICE discounts are. Therefore my view is that demand for all EVs is high (and therefore, by implication, Teslas). It also has big implications for UK dealers and ICE-dominated brands including VW Group.

Edit - added Toyota (big discounts compared to what I remembered before - up to 18%, often NOT in discount list until recently) & VW (ICE vs EV). VW is interesting as my impression is that ID models have had bad press about reliability, software & buttons.

Spoiler: Image-Discounts

 

[scaesare]

Did you guys see the funny but disingenuous Ram EV ad? Their truck isn’t expected to come out until fall 2024, so they run an ad talking about Premature Electrification as if it were a male performance issue. It was actually a funny ad, but I’m a bit annoyed at it since it was an anti-EV ad.

It reminded me a bit of the EV-1 "anticommercial":

 

[Mengy]

My entire watchlist is green this morning, EXCEPT for TSLA which is down 0.5% right now. I'd like to see that turn around please!

 

[NicoV]

The European Commission doesn’t expect a recession anymore in the Eurozone countries:

België en eurozone vermijden gevreesde recessie

Zowel België als de landen van de eurozone vermijden dit en volgend jaar de gevreesde economische krimp, voorspelt nu ook de Europese Commissie. Maar dat is alleen als de oorlog in Oekraïne niet escaleert.

www.standaard.be

The Eurozone is expected to grow 0.9% this year, with inflation coming down to 5.6%

So Elon was wrong in his recession prediction (at least for the Eurozone).

 

[UncaNed]

Thanks for those useful replies!

I'm on the Jag I-Pace forum (owning one) and recently there was a poster who has sold his I-Pace and bought a Model Y (built Berlin - 02/23). He is very happy with it but commented:-

"It is a brand new model, produced in Berlin/Brandenburg in calender week 02/2023. The quality is definitely improved compared to Shanghai models but there is enough room for further improvement." and also complained about the delivery experience (he has previously owned a Tesla a few years ago).

The delivery is disappointing but may be patchy and is a one-off experience but I'm disappointed to see that Berlin is also producing 'below par' cars - I thought the German cars would be Porsche/Audi-esque.

Is this a product of the factory, the design or the personnel making the cars?

Or maybe not generally true?

Your vague post sounds like you're spreading FUD to me. Photos of the bad stuff, please???

Edit- In other words... what are you talking about?? I'm not trying to be neurotic; not trying to be anything. I didn't mean to come across like a wise guy, sorry if I did.

 

[AndrewZ]

The European Commission doesn’t expect a recession anymore in the Eurozone countries:

België en eurozone vermijden gevreesde recessie

Zowel België als de landen van de eurozone vermijden dit en volgend jaar de gevreesde economische krimp, voorspelt nu ook de Europese Commissie. Maar dat is alleen als de oorlog in Oekraïne niet escaleert.

www.standaard.be

The Eurozone is expected to grow 0.9% this year, with inflation coming down to 5.6%

So Elon was wrong in his recession prediction (at least for the Eurozone).

Gazprom's energy weaponization strategy foiled by mother nature, you love to see it

 

[lascavarian]

Looking at todays Max Pain graphics, wow a drop from 197 to 165 for today is reflective of the approach (perhaps) of 3/1. Anticipation of both optimism and disappointment reflected in dramatic trading activity.

I wonder how the public reaction to stack integration in FSD will be received if it appears before 3/1?

My watch focus for 3/1 will be about the balance of HW vs SW discussion. To bump valuation I see focus on SW as the more likely valuation multiplier. Love to see Super Dojo plans, improved integration with StarLink and reveal of orbital data cloud development (again with StarLink ) with loads of new application possibilities (like global banking). YMMV

 

[Sunlight]

Your vague post sounds like you're spreading FUD to me. Photos of the bad stuff, please???

Please give it a break!

I only have an I-Pace because Tesla aren’t here

I‘ve been deep in Tesla shares since 2014 and am a HODLer

I’m trying to get useful information - you’re being neurotic!

 

[2daMoon]

Looking at todays Max Pain graphics, wow a drop from 197 to 165 for today is reflective of the approach (perhaps) of 3/1. Anticipation of both optimism and disappointment reflected in dramatic trading activity.

I wonder how the public reaction to stack integration in FSD will be received if it appears before 3/1?

My watch focus for 3/1 will be about the balance of HW vs SW discussion. To bump valuation I see focus on SW as the more likely valuation multiplier. Love to see Super Dojo plans, improved integration with StarLink and reveal of orbital data cloud development (again with StarLink ) with loads of new application possibilities (like global banking). YMMV

Has there ever been a direct correlation between Tesla software development and the SP? I really don't see the market even noticing these things. Granted, milestones like these are glaringly obvious to those like us who keep Tesla under a microscope, but taking this perspective to holding an expectation that most of those actually making buying decisions are aware of these details is hopeful, at best.

Now, if Tesla acquired Starlink, or Boring Company, that might move the ticker, but which way is anyone's guess.

I think that those actually doing the buying are spread thin by having to analyze a number of stocks and make their decisions based upon parameters common to every one of them. Much of what Tesla is doing to grow won't fall into the scope of those comparisons.

Investor Day won't be watched or reviewed by the lion's share of these decision makers. The impact will come over time as a few of those decision makers who were able to put the pieces together begin reporting upon the company and purchasing stocks. Eventually, this new normal trickles down to others who trust the judgement of those few. At that point they may be hearing about it from their Uber drivers and Baristas too, and only then will they take a moment to see what the fuss is about.

That is how the snowball rolls, isn't it?

 

[FreqFlyer]

After two years of raising prices, Tesla lowered them to about the point where they used to be. Now they're adjusting them in small increments every other week until equilibrium between production and demand has been reached. Looking at this pattern, would I hold out as a prospective buyer? Certainly not.
Will prices come down again? Quite possible. Zach stated that they're managing their operating margins and that implies that they will pass on cost savings to the customers. But that's not what recent price moves suggest.

It matters not the reason, the customer does not car about margins. When the media goes on about Tesla starting a "price war" the market learns quick. Sit on the sideline for the next "lever to pulled" to use a Tesla term.

I have bought enough cars over my lifetime to know to wait. Tesla is slowly training its customers to do the same.

 

[JRP3]

I have bought enough cars over my lifetime to know to wait. Tesla is slowly training its customers to do the same.

Most people won't want to wait very long once they've made the decision to purchase.

 

[ZeApelido]

"Honey, can you go to the auto store and pickup a Cybertruck winshield wiper?"


"Sure, but how do I know which wiper it uses?"

 

[lascavarian]

Now, if Tesla acquired Starlink, or Boring Company, that might move the ticker, but which way is anyone's guess.

Thought about that.

Love to see a discussion of 10B stock buyback vs 10B StarLink/SpaceX investment.