Lot of speculation on Tesla's next price hike so I'll add my own...especially as today's charging network announcement (from Washington vs. Tesla no less), makes me think that Tesla already knows they will retain the full $7500 rebate come March (no doubt it "came up" in Musk's discussion with the administration).
If the $7500 rebate is a given for them (minimally for the next several months) then the only hurdle is the $80K price cap. Today, if you fully option a Model Y long range (red, white interior, 20" rims, 7 seat, tow hook and FSD) - the price is like $79,900 or so....a hair beneath the $80K cap. Any raise in price would push it over the top. I am assuming Tesla does not want to torpedo the already small FSD take rate so what do they do. I think they "sacrifice" the 7 seat option and possibly the tow hook. The take rate on the 7 seat has to be pretty low too and it is pricey at $4k. The tow hook ($1k) can be added after-the-fact. In short, I think the next price hike (or perhaps couple of price hikes) is in the $4K to $5K range. Now, they may not get that aggressive, but I think that is the runway. Operating Margin Secured! Oh, and I think we get the IRS announcement early in March (maybe even on the 1st).
One other "wild card" is whether the IRS will cut the Hyundai/Kia/Genesis/etc guys any slack and let them qualify for some of the rebate (making them more price competitive). Given the focus on 'Murica! for the IRA that seems less likely, but it is possible....still, it is in the noise given the relatively low volumes they are able to produce...
We'll see...