Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

The white house announcement (see below) is good news on several fronts. It APPEARS Tesla MAY HAVE avoided the whole need to install credit card readers for payment as the article references the need for CCS plugs but has an "app" for payment. If true, that was undoubtedly part of the "discussion " Musk had while in Washington.

Yep, no credit card reader required. But you do have to have an automated toll-free number for people to use to make payment. (SMS for payment is an option as well.) So the app can't be the only method.

Tesla currently has around 17.5k Supercharger stalls (at 1.7k US locations), so doubling that is around 35k chargers. So roughly 10% of Superchargers will be open to non-Teslas. Does this suggest that Tesla can access billions of government funding by providing 1 CCS adapter for every 10 Supercharger stalls? Supercharger V3 are built in sets of 4 stalls, so maybe having a CCS adapter in each set could have federal funding cover a lot of general Supercharger buildout costs that are still all providing value to Tesla owners?

No current Tesla Supercharger infrastructure qualifies for funding. It required that every funded port be capable of providing 150kW anytime a vehicle asks for it. (Power sharing is only allowed above 150kW.) V3 Superchargers generally have ~90kW available per port when all are in use. To meet the requirement Tesla would have to get a larger grid connection/transformer and double the number of charging cabinets. (Only 2 stalls per cabinet.)

They could pull "tricks" like having only 4 NEVI funded ports per site, but that would cripple the other Supercharger stalls at the site. (For example, a typical 12 stall V3 site has a ~1000kW transformer, if you dedicated 600kW of that for 4 NEVI funded stalls that would only leave 400kW for the other 8 stalls, or 50kW per stall if they were all in use at the same time.)

What they could do is up the grid feed/transformer to 1500kW and add an additional V3 cabinet, to make 4 NEVI stalls, at 150kW minimum, and use the remaining 900kW for the 8 NACS only stalls. But I am sure that non-Tesla drivers would be very upset if they arrive, and the 4 NEVI/CCS stalls were in use by Tesla vehicles, and they couldn't use any of the open 8 NACS stalls. (I guess Telsa could put CCS connectors on all of them, even if they weren't funded by NEVI so wouldn't require the minimum 150kW output.)

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

[insaneoctane]

As EV costs come down and everyone has multiple friends and family members talking up their EVs, the last remaining concern for EV holdouts is charging on road trips.

Todays WH announcement is the best of all worlds for Tesla on that score. It sends a strong message that many more superchargers are coming, while maintaining the lion’s share of Tesla’s superchargers as exclusive to Tesla.

For those concerned about road trips, the best EV to buy is still Tesla, hands down.

And it will conveniently allow for the media to write new EV "comparison" articles that select road trips where those superchargers are open to the public to conclude that Tesla no longer has any charging advantage anymore

 

[carterm2]

I wonder if the electricity from solar panels that I store in my powerwalls could be sold to non-Tesla SuperCharging customers....

at a fair (but higher than PGE) rate? This would help support solar installs, sustainable transportation and take a load off PG$E.

 

[2daMoon]

And it will conveniently allow for the media to write new EV "comparison" articles that select road trips where those superchargers are open to the public to conclude that Tesla no longer has any charging advantage anymore

No mention by the media will be made regarding Tesla's advertising advantage on those road trips...

 

[SOULPEDL]

I know many have reported the addition of CCS facilities to some superchargers but thought I would put the link to the Washington post article.

Keep in mind that this is only in the US. Canada and Mexico will continue as per normal.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/02/15/tesla-supercharger-network-locked/?fbclid=IwAR2ZS9eCsXynGAgwI9OJ7cNzVOiKEGjQvYLSjosXEhp-ZAfIfD3xbBEqyAk

Beat me to it, Reuters was pay-walled. Here's another version from the briefing room. Biden taking credit of course for the massive growth in EVs through "Leadership." It includes Hydrogen?

" The Department of Energy today announced $7.4 million in funding for seven projects to develop innovative medium-and heavy-duty EV charging and hydrogen corridor infrastructure plans serving millions of Americans across 23 states;"

Grants offered for this: "schools, grocery stores, parks, libraries, apartment complexes, and everywhere else Americans live and work;"

"Union" is written all over the post.

FACT SHEET: Biden-Harris Administration Announces New Standards and Major Progress for a Made-in-America National Network of Electric Vehicle Chargers | The White House

Made in America Policies and New Technical Standards Support the Future of the Electric Vehicle Charging Industry, Public and Private Actions Accelerate Buildout of National Network and Catalyze Manufacturing Boom Today, the Biden-Harris Administration announced its latest set of actions aimed...

www.whitehouse.gov

 

[JoRoMo]

Hertz ended 2022 with about 50k Telsas in their 428.7k fleet, and fell short of the 100k Teslas by 2022 goal they headlined in Oct 2021. So by saying 25% of their fleet will be EVs by EOY 2024, it seems they are simply reiterating 100k Teslas, but 2 years late.

Those are US numbers, are you sure the 100.000-order was for US only? There are Hertz locations with Teslas all over the world, it seems…

 

[mongo]

What they could do is up the grid feed/transformer to 1500kW and add an additional V3 cabinet, to make 4 NEVI stalls, at 150kW minimum, and use the remaining 900kW for the 8 NACS only stalls. But I am sure that non-Tesla drivers would be very upset if they arrive, and the 4 NEVI/CCS stalls were in use by Tesla vehicles, and they couldn't use any of the open 8 NACS stalls. (I guess Telsa could put CCS connectors on all of them, even if they weren't funded by NEVI so wouldn't require the minimum 150kW output.)

Agree with your post, but this situation (charge points saturated by Teslas) can happen regardless. Higher guaranteed charge rate locations will always attract vehicles.

 

[Stretch2727]

One other "wild card" is whether the IRS will cut the Hyundai/Kia/Genesis/etc guys any slack and let them qualify for some of the rebate (making them more price competitive). Given the focus on 'Murica! for the IRA that seems less likely, but it is possible....still, it is in the noise given the relatively low volumes they are able to produce...

We'll see...

For the purchase tax credit the law would need to be rewritten as it is pretty clear this applies to vehicles made in North America. The law left a lot ambiguity on the battery and battery minerals but the vehicle manufacturing portion is pretty clear.

They were pretty generous to allow the tax credit through leasing as a commercial vehicle. I am pretty sure the auto companies that don't manufacture in North America will start to give very attractive leases through use of the tax credit.

 

[FireMedic]

Shocking I know. But the Subaru solterra…they’re only ev offering; that looks strikingly similar (read:identical) to the buzzforks (BZ4X) and now we find out. It’s recalled for the same reason. That’s embarrassing.

Subaru recalls select 2023 Solterras for issue that could cause wheels to fall off the cars

"Improperly tightened hub bolts" can loosen and result in wheel detachment. The 2023 Solterra and the Toyota bZ4X were previously recalled in June.

www.usatoday.com

 

[UkNorthampton]

I can't verify if this is true - $25,000 Tesla for low income in California (USA)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1625881192711987202

 

[UncaNed]

Pandering to union supporters is not the same as having it in for Tesla, not even close. Actual legislation has benefited Tesla.

I suppose they did pander to unions to unions, they Pandered to Mary-do-nothing to GM, and perhaps they pandered to Elon to Elon... so that makes pandering to unions a little less bad IMHO.

 

[Ogre]

Elon Musk agrees to open Tesla’s charging network to non-Tesla drivers - The Washington Post (30 min ago)

I'm pretty sure the headline should read: "Biden Administration agrees to pay Tesla ?? Billion Dollars to allow other EVs on their charger network".

 

[SOULPEDL]

I can't verify if this is true - $25,000 Tesla for low income in California (USA)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1625881192711987202

Saw this coming but not the low income part. Wow! Different from Highlander? My argument last year (or before) was that if they keep the volume going up on Model 3, Wrights law will make it happen. Maybe it's happening, we'll see.

 

[Gigapress]

Supercharger opening

• Already piloted in other markets before committing in U.S.
  • especially important that it’s working fine in Europe where Tesla has a lower EV market share

• Doubling the network in 18 months would actually be just a modest increase in the exponential-ish growth rate of the charging network
  • Global chargers and station count has been on average growing at 35% CAGR and doubling every nine quarters

Spoiler: “Supercharger growth table”

Quarter	Supercharger stations		Supercharger connectors
	Total	YoY Growth	Total	YoY Growth
Q1 2018	1205		9372
Q2 2018	1308		10800
Q3 2018	1352		11128
Q4 2018	1421		12002
Q1 2019	1490	24%	12767	36%
Q2 2019	1587	21%	13881	29%
Q3 2019	1653	22%	14658	32%
Q4 2019	1821	28%	16104	34%
Q1 2020	1917	29%	17007	33%
Q2 2020	2035	28%	18100	30%
Q3 2020	2181	32%	19437	33%
Q4 2020	2564	41%	23277	45%
Q1 2021	2699	41%	24515	44%
Q2 2021	2966	46%	26900	49%
Q3 2021	3254	49%	29281	51%
Q4 2021	3476	36%	31,498	35%
Q1 2022	3724	38%	33,657	37%
Q2 2022	3971	34%	36,165	34%
Q3 2022	4283	32%	38,883	33%
Q4 2022	4678	35%	42,419	35%

Source: Tesla investor relations

• Tesla has been planning for this for a long time and has access to better charger usage statistics than we do and they’ve probably done a lot of analysis on this. In fact Tesla always said they wanted to partner with other companies on the charging business and reiterated this in the Nov ‘21 announcement of the pilot program, “It’s always been our ambition to open the Supercharger network to non-Tesla EVs, and by doing so, encourage more drivers to go electric.” So if Tesla’s moving forward with this then it’s pretty safe to assume their modeling shows that opening the network won’t cause major problems and ultimately that it will accelerate mission completion

• “More customers using the Supercharger network enables faster expansion” was also on the previous announcement. The main limitation of the supercharger network now isn’t waiting in line at busy chargers; it’s station coverage of the map. This is especially true in the US with such a big landmass and long distances. If you stick to the interstate highways then Tesla has you covered pretty much nationwide except Alaska; off the interstates, much less coverage. Increasing the pool of customers using the network makes it viable to add more chargers faster without being wasteful about making underutilized stations, and this greater scale will benefit everyone involved. This is an example of network effects working to Tesla’s advantage by making the bigger network even bigger in a positive feedback loop.

• Tesla vehicles make up ~ 2/3 of the entire EV fleet in the US. Opening the network to everyone would at most increase demand for charging by about 50%, or perhaps a little more if we account for non-Tesla EVs charging more slowly. Tesla’s own vehicle fleet growth rate is a much bigger factor straining future supercharger capacity than opening up the network. In reality it wouldn’t be anywhere close to even 50% impact because not all other EV owners will use this option and the rate will be limited by how fast Tesla actually installs CCS hardware and opens up stations. It won’t be an overnight transition and there’s plenty of opportunity to slow down or limit the program if needed

• Non-Tesla drivers will still:
  • Get repeated Tesla brand exposure to the cars, charging, app and actual drivers who use these products daily
  • Download the Tesla app and make a Tesla profile
  • See the quicker and more convenient user experience the Tesla drivers get including faster charging times
  • Pay higher prices if this program follows what Tesla did elsewhere in the pilots

• Tesla will look and be less anti-competitively monopolistic in their vertical integration of charging and vehicles if it’s not exclusive

 

[Ogre]

It is rather funny though that we(or some), pay high fees to mutual fund managers who almost never beat the market.

Trying to figure out how to get into a mutual fund myself. A little bit for "Diversifying", but it's 1/3 Tesla.

Barons has a fund which is the only way for a non "Accredited" investor to invest in SpaceX. It's 30% Tesla and 10% SpaceX. Unfortunately I can't seem to buy it from my IRA account so either have to split the account or Open a new IRA. Frustrating.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Speculation that someone did a 10x typo on the SEC filing....

French investment bank Natixis reported it bought a MASSIVE $19 Billion+ of $TSLA in Q4. This is equal to a 6% stake, now valued at $39.7 billion, and up from the 18,779,612 shares they owned at the end of Q3. It would also make the firm a top 5 holder of Tesla in the world.

Follow up:

Apparently, it's such a massive increase that there is speculation that someone added an extra "zero" to the stake by mistake and that the 13F filing is wrong lol. I guess we'll see.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1625887275153297409

 

[Ogre]

“More customers using the Supercharger network enables faster expansion” was also on the previous announcement. The main limitation of the supercharger network now isn’t waiting in line at busy chargers; it’s station coverage of the map. This is especially true in the US with such a big landmass and long distances. Increasing the pool of customers using the network makes it viable to add more chargers faster without being wasteful about making underutilized stations, and this greater scale will benefit everyone involved. If you stick to the interstate highways then Tesla has you covered pretty much nationwide except Alaska. Off the interstates, much less coverage.

This is why I've been excited about this part of the infrastructure bill for some time. I just hope it plays out this way. Oregon posted a map and they had identified they would be subsidizing a bunch of expansion along fairly well covered routes and zero coverage along 2-3 fairly busy side corridors.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Supercharger opening

• Already piloted in other markets before committing in U.S.
  • especially important that it’s working fine in Europe where Tesla has a lower EV market share

• Doubling the network in 18 months would actually be just a modest increase in the exponential-ish growth rate of the charging network
  • Global chargers and station count has been on average growing at 35% CAGR and doubling every nine quarters

Spoiler: “Supercharger growth table”

Quarter	Supercharger stations	Supercharger connectors
	Total	YoY Growth	Total	YoY Growth
Q1 2018	1205		9372
Q2 2018	1308		10800
Q3 2018	1352		11128
Q4 2018	1421		12002
Q1 2019	1490	24%	12767	36%
Q2 2019	1587	21%	13881	29%
Q3 2019	1653	22%	14658	32%
Q4 2019	1821	28%	16104	34%
Q1 2020	1917	29%	17007	33%
Q2 2020	2035	28%	18100	30%
Q3 2020	2181	32%	19437	33%
Q4 2020	2564	41%	23277	45%
Q1 2021	2699	41%	24515	44%
Q2 2021	2966	46%	26900	49%
Q3 2021	3254	49%	29281	51%
Q4 2021	3476	36%	31,498	35%
Q1 2022	3724	38%	33,657	37%
Q2 2022	3971	34%	36,165	34%
Q3 2022	4283	32%	38,883	33%
Q4 2022	4678	35%	42,419	35%

Source: Tesla investor relations

• Tesla has been planning for this for a long time and has access to better charger usage statistics than we do and they’ve probably done a lot of analysis on this. In fact Tesla always said they wanted to partner with other companies on the charging business and reiterated this in the Nov ‘21 announcement of the pilot program, “It’s always been our ambition to open the Supercharger network to non-Tesla EVs, and by doing so, encourage more drivers to go electric.” So if Tesla’s moving forward with this then it’s pretty safe to assume their modeling shows that opening the network won’t cause major problems and ultimately that it will accelerate mission completion

• “More customers using the Supercharger network enables faster expansion” was also on the previous announcement. The main limitation of the supercharger network now isn’t waiting in line at busy chargers; it’s station coverage of the map. This is especially true in the US with such a big landmass and long distances. Increasing the pool of customers using the network makes it viable to add more chargers faster without being wasteful about making underutilized stations, and this greater scale will benefit everyone involved. If you stick to the interstate highways then Tesla has you covered pretty much nationwide except Alaska. Off the interstates, much less coverage.

• Tesla vehicles account for about 2/3 of the entire EV fleet in the US. Opening the network to everyone would at most increase demand for charging by about 50%. Tesla’s own vehicle fleet growth rate is a bigger factor straining supercharger capacity than opening up the network. In reality it wouldn’t be anywhere close to even 50% impact because not all other EV owners will use this option and the rate will be limited by how fast Tesla actually installs CCS hardware and opens up stations. It won’t be an overnight transition and there’s plenty of opportunity to slow down or limit the program if needed

• Non-Tesla drivers will still
  • Get Tesla brand exposure
  • Download the Tesla app
  • See the quicker and more convenient user experience the Tesla drivers get including faster charging times
  • Pay higher prices if this program follows what Tesla did elsewhere in the pilots

• Tesla will look and be less monopolistic in their vertical integration of charging and vehicles if it’s not exclusive

For many places, eg UK, it's land access, permitting & getting electricity providers to provide (we also have ransom strips to contend with - makes it harder to get power). I wonder if any of these are assisted by this announcement & policies in USA as well.

 

[jerry33]

Pandering to union supporters is not the same as having it in for Tesla, not even close. Actual legislation has benefited Tesla.

I might be wrong, but I thought Congress made the legislation, not the WH? Of course, the President had to sign it into law, but he didn't start it or submit the legislation. And yes, the WH certainly pandered to unions and legacy auto.

 

[J727]

Not sure if anyone's already posted this:

Natixis' 'very large' Tesla buy may be for sovereign fund, says Gordon Haskett 09:42 TSLA Gordon Haskett's head of event-driven research, Don Bilson, called the 13F that was filed by Natixis "the strangest filing of the week," noting that the bank "evidently had a VERY large Tesla buyer during Q4," as Natixis late Monday filed a report that included a 190M share position in Tesla. While stating "maybe this will turn out to be a clerical error," Bilson said: "That isn't the prop desk. Or some hedge fund! More likely, it's a sovereign wealth fund." In assessing which fund now owns a new six percent stake in Tesla, Bilson added: "We have no clue. But we are entitled to a guess, and we'll start by noting Elon Musk was in Qatar right before Christmas."

Read more at:

Natixis' 'very large' Tesla buy may be for sovereign fund, says Gordon Haskett

Gordon Haskett's hea... TSLA

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