Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Stretch2727]

I have some ideas about how I would structure it which would work, but since it’s the government they will likely pick some other method.

Here’s how I would do it:

• Companies with 97% uptime on their current network get paid on completion.
• Companies with lower uptime or no history get paid 20% on completion, 20% per year after if they demonstrate 97% uptime on those stations until the full amount is paid. (Actually a schedule of 20%, 20%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10% would be ideal)
• If a company demonstrates 97% across their entire network for 3 years running they can qualify to move up to the first program.

… but it’s government so it’ll probably have some weird clause that makes the reliability unenforceable and they’ll just pay the DOT administrator’s cousin to put in crappy ones.

The real challenge is measuring uptime. If a connector is broken the station will say it is up but the reality is you can't charge. A lot of Electrify Americas stations show the station is up but it is unusable. I think the only way around this is to have someone checking them every few days.

 

[jerry33]

The real challenge is measuring uptime. If a connector is broken the station will say it is up but the reality is you can't charge. A lot of Electrify Americas stations show the station is up but it is unusable. I think the only way around this is to have someone checking them every few days.

Because a phone contact is required, when a customer calls in and says the charger is not working, the person on the line adds that to the count. (How to verify that the call centre person actually increments the counter is another story.)

 

[Hasbro1]

Took a while to find, but this appears to be legit. An additional $7500 for lower-income individuals (400% of the federal poverty level):

FAQs | Clean Vehicle Rebate Project

Frequently asked questions about CVRP and the rebate application process. Need help? Contact Us.

cleanvehiclerebate.org

(click on "How often do CVRP program requirements change?" and then scroll down to the "Summary of February 28, 2023 updates"

Tesla sold 1 in 9 cars in Cali in 2022. That's only going to go up, a lot, after this. Currently the program has 370M+ in available funding:

CVRP Overview | Clean Vehicle Rebate Project

cleanvehiclerebate.org

Here is another California EV/hybrid grant program that I recently came across while doing some research for my adult daughter that would explain the $25,000 figure.

Clean Cars 4 All​

The Clean Cars 4 All program (formerly known as the Enhanced Fleet Modernization Plus-Up Program) helps get lower-income consumers into cleaner technology vehicles by retiring their older, higher-polluting vehicle and upgrading to a cleaner vehicle. Participants also have the option to replace their older vehicle for alternative mobility options such as public transit passes or an electric bicycle. The program is limited to vehicle owners residing in participating air districts, and those who meet income and vehicle requirements.

Incentives​

Receive up to $9,500 towards the purchase of a new or used plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV), battery electric (BEV), or fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV); or choose up to $7,500 in incentives to access public, private, and shared mobility options. The highest incentive amount under this program is for participants with the lowest income, living in a disadvantaged community, and that choose the cleanest vehicle technology, such as a fuel cell electric vehicle.

Eligibility​

The Clean Cars 4 All program is implemented through participating air districts. Eligibility and incentive amounts are based on your household income level, where you reside, and the replacement vehicle you choose.
For more information related to program specifics and eligibility, please visit participating air district official program pages:

• South Coast Area (which includes the Los Angeles Area)- Replace Your Ride
• San Joaquin Valley Drive Clean in the San Joaquin
• Bay Area Clean Cars For All
• Sacramento area Clean Cars 4 All

Note, these incentives are stackable with both the Federal Tax Credit and California's Clean Vehicle Rebate Program (CVRP). A buyer who qualifies for all said programs would have an effective cost of under $24K for a Model 3 and even less if they could get the CVRP increased rebate. Pretty wild.

 

[Ogre]

The real challenge is measuring uptime. If a connector is broken the station will say it is up but the reality is you can't charge. A lot of Electrify Americas stations show the station is up but it is unusable. I think the only way around this is to have someone checking them every few days.

Yep. If a stall is downrated to 50 kW, that should be a fail. And uptime per charger not per station. Some apps count 1 station which is down rated to 50 kW at a 4 stall station as “operational”.

Also… bricking cars should be recorded as more than just “downtime”

 

[Prunesquallor]

I have some ideas about how I would structure it which would work, but since it’s the government they will likely pick some other method.

Here’s how I would do it:

• Companies with 97% uptime on their current network get paid on completion.
• Companies with lower uptime or no history get paid 20% on completion, 20% per year after if they demonstrate 97% uptime on those stations until the full amount is paid. (Actually a schedule of 20%, 20%, 10%, 10%, 10%, 10% would be ideal)
• If a company demonstrates 97% across their entire network for 3 years running they can qualify to move up to the first program.

… but it’s government so it’ll probably have some weird clause that makes the reliability unenforceable and they’ll just pay the DOT administrator’s cousin to put in crappy ones.

Yeah, that’s pretty typical of performance-based government contracts I’ve seen. There are specific performance milestones stipulated with payments based on meeting the milestones.

 

[Nocturnal]

Where's SpaceX? Here's their top 10 holdings.

View attachment 907530

I don't care for the other stuff. I'd consider a 60/40 Tesla/SpaceX fund... or just X containing anything Elon does, makes it simple.

I'm surprised nobody has done that. An "X holdings" fund with Tesla, SpaceX, Boring etc. would have extremely high demand.

 

[2daMoon]

My understanding, such as it is, is that before Elon purchased Twitter Elon's companies could mostly be ignored by the WH. Once he acquired Twitter, there was almost an overnight change due to the number of people reached by Twitter. Before Elon purchased Twitter, everything that the WH (or anyone else) didn't like could be chalked up to bots. Now the bots are mostly gone, there is a better verification system, etc. Now correlation does not equal causation, but there is certainly a smoking gun.

Sunlight makes a pretty good disinfectant.

 

[Ogre]

Tom Nash slings numbers around to see if Gary Black's $370 6-12 month price target is reasonable.

TLDW: It seems quite reasonable

Tom Nash concludes thoughtfully: “Yes, it’s possible Tesla will climb to within $50 of the high set when earnings were more than 40% lower….”

How…. Inciteful?


It always cracks me up when people try to justify stock price targets with rational arguments when the share price is clearly irrational. The idea that Tesla can’t revisit the ATH when earnings are so much higher now is just nonsense. Maybe it doesn’t happen in the next 6 months… but if the macros recover seems highly likely it’ll get there by year end.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Just out.

FACT SHEET: Biden-⁠Harris Administration Announces New Standards and Major Progress for a Made-in-America National Network of Electric Vehicle Chargers​

FACT SHEET: Biden-Harris Administration Announces New Standards and Major Progress for a Made-in-America National Network of Electric Vehicle Chargers | The White House

Made in America Policies and New Technical Standards Support the Future of the Electric Vehicle Charging Industry, Public and Private Actions Accelerate Buildout of National Network and Catalyze Manufacturing Boom Today, the Biden-Harris Administration announced its latest set of actions aimed...

www.whitehouse.gov

Includes:

Chargers are working when drivers need them to, by requiring a 97 percent uptime reliability requirement;

EA goes ooof!

Yes, but how will they monitor it and how will they penalize it.

The other side of this is that some charge chains may just decide to throw in the towel.

 

[SOULPEDL]

The real challenge is measuring uptime. If a connector is broken the station will say it is up but the reality is you can't charge. A lot of Electrify Americas stations show the station is up but it is unusable. I think the only way around this is to have someone checking them every few days.

Yes, but how will they monitor it and how will they penalize it.

All good points. FYI, I've had that happen on Tesla Superchargers as well. Specifically in Yuma Az, 115F. Waited ~3 hrs in line because utility power was insufficient (so we were told by Tesla). So very slow charging. Again, nothing was indicated as such in the App. Plus, many times I've tried a charger only to find it quite slow, then got 2X out of the one next to it (even with no other car on A/B branches). Unless they standardize on error codes... but even then you'd have to audit. And what if it's the car's fault... what a mess!

I think it may boil down to word of mouth. I hope they add a water cooler, do some catching up.
Enter Consumer Reports with another BS Survey, lol.

 

[MC3OZ]

Curious about the details of opening superchargers to all EV's:
1) Is Tesla getting incentives for making current stations accessible?
2) Will all chargers at each location be available for all EV's?
3) Will there still be any dedicated Tesla only plugs?

This could potentially be an enormous benefit to all EV's other than Tesla, while being of significant detriment to Tesla owners.

That could be true if Tesla wasn't intending to double the number of chargers.

Initially I expect that the majority of chargers open to other brands will be new builds. Opening existing chargers might be slower?

This partially depends on how generous the scheme is.

Tesla needs to ramp up supercharging anyway to support the ramp up of vechicle production. My perspective is that the US government is funding part of that.

The only car companies cspable of ramping EV production volumes at the same rste as Tesla are the Chinese. The combination of the IRA and tarrifs make the US a more challenging market for the Chinese, export to the EU is much easier.

The IRA means that Tesla is more US focused, doubling the number of chargers is probably only in yhe US for now. But in many other countries good fast chsrging alternatives also exist.

 

[wipster]

Same here. BPTRX has a minimum buy-in of $2000, whereas BPTIX is $1,000,000.

Thanks for that! Was driving me nuts!

 

[Dreadnought]

The real challenge is measuring uptime. If a connector is broken the station will say it is up but the reality is you can't charge. A lot of Electrify Americas stations show the station is up but it is unusable. I think the only way around this is to have someone checking them every few days.

If a tree falls in a forest and there's no one around to hear, does it make a sound?
Zen aside, if x% of all chargers are down, on average charging will also fail at x%.

 

[Ogre]

This announcement from the Biden administration feels like a shift in policy. Originally, the money was to be funneled through the states. Now the Biden admin is announcing what seems to be a National agreement between Tesla and the government.

I get the impression Tesla told the administration they wouldn’t play ball unless there was a single guideline to deal with. Seems pretty clear jumping through different hoops in each state and increasingly ridiculous requirements in some states would be hugely frustrating. The fact that some state administrations seem downright hostile towards Tesla doesn’t help. The recent deal in California where Tesla walked away from millions in state incentives because of the requirements being the big obvious example.

Adding their magic doc to a Supercharger probably costs Tesla $5,000 or less per stall. This gives the administration a huge win here and Tesla clearly pockets a lot of cash for doing it. Hopefully we’ll see the network expanding faster than the number of stalls getting converted to new vehicles so existing owners aren’t impacted as much.

@Gigapress pointed out my #1 biggest hope for accepting government cash which is getting stations into more and more remote locations. I like to travel and often enjoy Out-of-the-way spaces. There are big parts of my state which are nearly inaccessible to me right now I’d like opened up. Doubly so when I get my Cybertruck and can get even further off the beaten track.

Hopefully Tesla promise of doubling the Supercharger network plays out because otherwise we’re going to end up fighting slow charging vehicles every road trip.

It’s really good seeing the administration and Tesla coming together on this. It makes me think this the Biden administration is doing more than just lip service here. Also good (for the mission) to see Tesla opening their network up. It seems like a good, healthy agreement all around.

 

[2daMoon]

My apologies if this has been posted already, but wow... go Elon!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1625642913760972800

That is sooooo last year...

 

[Ogre]

The mystery of what exactly Joey 2000 was handling is solved and it wasn’t a Cybertruck

Spoiler: Not a Cybertruck

This is a Model X sled. Very clearly this is what we saw, complete with the side rails. I’m a bit bummed but not exactly surprised.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Seems pretty sneaky to leave out about 8% of the fund holdings. Notice there were only 9 listed in the top 10. Check it out. Intentional?

Not sure where you pulled those figures from, but I bet they only show the public holdings of other funds too. Not likely a conspiracy.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Not sure where you pulled those figures from, but I bet they only show the public holdings of other funds too. Not likely a conspiracy.

Looks like I don't understand public vs private. The fund had the same name on TD Amer. Over my head...
Possibly outdated? Was "as of 12/31/22" anyway... thanks.

 

[15Peter20]

$200 seems to come with built-in tractor beam.

 

[MikeC]

Berlin battery factory is operating:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1625938003121119233