Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Gigapress]

Today it occurred to me that one advantage of opening the supercharger network in the US could be reducing the likelihood that the IRA clean energy subsidies are modified in the future.

These subsidies will be heavily concentrated towards Tesla because of Tesla’s coming production growth and likely continual grip on the majority of the EV and battery market here. This still leaves an opportunity for lawmakers to change the scheme to cap the benefits one company can receive. For example, they could add back the cap on vehicles eligible for the $7500 credit but set the limit to 5 million vehicles or some other number only Tesla would hit. Maybe welcoming all EVs to the superchargers will help protect these future subsidies by making Tesla more appealing to a broader section of voters.

If so, this would probably outweigh all other financial implications of supercharger inclusivity combined. The $45/kWh subsidy alone is worth $45 BILLION annually ($13/share!!) directly to net income if Tesla can make 1 TWh/year of eligible batteries by 2030, and that’s roughly the goal. As Elon said on the Q4 call, it’s a “very significant” amount of money. As we look towards the latter years of this clean energy subsidy program before it starts to sunset in the early 30s, Tesla will be benefiting on the order of $1B+ per week. That can buy a lot of supercharger stations.

Thoughts?

 

[advocate8]

I don't think it is cybertruck. in elon's tweet he said:

"EV-1 -> Tzero -> Roadster -> S3XY -> Semi -> Cybertruck …"

So I'm guessing it's not Cybertruck that comes after the "..." Also, he also mentioned on the latest earnings call that meaningful production of cybertruck happens later, so I don't see how delivery of a few early cybertrucks would be that significant to Elon.

Also, I've found Teslascope to be pretty reliable and measured in their public tweets. They are not hyperbolic and careful not to get their sources in trouble for revealing information.

Teslascope's latest tweet is intriguing to me. I've been racking my brains trying to guess what it means, but I don't know. My guess is that it has something to do with the tweet where he said:

"By this, we mean the broadest definition of investor, as in the people & life of Earth. It will be a message of good hope & positivity for the future."


So perhaps announcements of gigafactories, energy storage, a new mass market low cost vehicle, or some change in ownership/leadership of Tesla. The latter I don't think happens because I don't think Elon wants to give up control of anything.

Gigafactories on at least two continents dedicated to building a new Model 2ish vehicle.

 

[willow_hiller]

Can’t help but think this would be a super-fun car to drive.

Just did a little bit of scaling and measuring; unfortunately the blue car pictured might be unreasonably short.

If those are 18" Aero wheels, then the car in this sketch is about 112 inches long. That's about 6 feet shorter than a Model 3 (at 184.8 inches long), or just about as long as a Smart Fortwo.

 

[ZeApelido]

unfortunately the blue car pictured might be unreasonably short.

Funny that's what my wife says about me.

 

[JRP3]

I can also see Tesla releasing a Performance version of this with Plaid Motors and nickel cells that would just completely blow away the low-end pocket rocket class of vehicles.

They could but I think Plaid is going to stay in the S/X line. Elon has already said no Plaid 3/Y, I doubt he'd move plaid even further down market.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Today it occurred to me that one advantage of opening the supercharger network in the US could be reducing the likelihood that the IRA clean energy subsidies are modified in the future.

These subsidies will be heavily concentrated towards Tesla because of Tesla’s coming production growth and likely continual grip on the majority of the EV and battery market here. This still leaves an opportunity for lawmakers to change the scheme to cap the benefits one company can receive. For example, they could add back the cap on vehicles eligible for the $7500 credit but set the limit to 5 million vehicles or some other number only Tesla would hit. Maybe welcoming all EVs to the superchargers will help protect these future subsidies by making Tesla more appealing to a broader section of voters.

If so, this would probably outweigh all other financial implications of supercharger inclusivity combined. The $45/kWh subsidy alone is worth $45 BILLION annually ($13/share!!) directly to net income if Tesla can make 1 TWh/year of eligible batteries by 2030, and that’s roughly the goal. As Elon said on the Q4 call, it’s a “very significant” amount of money. As we look towards the latter years of this clean energy subsidy program before it starts to sunset in the early 30s, Tesla will be benefiting on the order of $1B+ per week. That can buy a lot of supercharger stations.

Thoughts?

I think the main advantage of opening the Supercharger stations is that it advances Tesla's stated mission of accelerating the advent of sustainable transport. All the better if it also casts the company in a better light, but that seems like an ancillary benefit.

 

[Etna]

• Giga Montreal rumors on linked in (1/2/2023) @Etna on TMC

So, the Province of Quebec seems to be in no particular hurry, but they have excellent natural resources, as well as a location close to Ontario minerals and manufacturing base, and would undoubtedly qualify for I.R.A. energy manufacturing benefits.

Cheers!

The LinkedIn contacts I was referring to were all in the US, this was not a Quebec pulse.

Quebec is a non-starter for a Gigafactory location for several reasons. Ontario making a lot more sense, being one. The killing factor is that it is nearly impossible to hire anyone here. There is full employment and small businesses are even closing down for lack of workers, as crazy as it sounds. The local aerospace industry is pretty desperate about the current situation.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Just did a little bit of scaling and measuring; unfortunately the blue car pictured might be unreasonably short.

If those are 18" Aero wheels, then the car in this sketch is about 112 inches long. That's about 6 feet shorter than a Model 3 (at 184.8 inches long), or just about as long as a Smart Fortwo.

Another way to approximate the car's max. size is by the estimating the limit on dimensions that would fit in a 9000-ton Gigapress (assuming there will be only a single casting for the entire chassis).

@mongo dug out those maximum die dimensions a while back. IIRC the max. size vehicle chassis that could be produced as a single part is somewhat shorter than a VW Golf, but still longer than a VW Polo.

To me, this is the perfect size for a Eurocar. Perhaps a 3-door sedan (w. hatchback), and a square-back CUV sharing the same platform?

Cheers!

 

[Nocturnal]

First sighting of the magic dock in the wild I believe.

 

[Ogre]

Today it occurred to me that one advantage of opening the supercharger network in the US could be reducing the likelihood that the IRA clean energy subsidies are modified in the future.

These subsidies will be heavily concentrated towards Tesla because of Tesla’s coming production growth and likely continual grip on the majority of the EV and battery market here. This still leaves an opportunity for lawmakers to change the scheme to cap the benefits one company can receive. For example, they could add back the cap on vehicles eligible for the $7500 credit but set the limit to 5 million vehicles or some other number only Tesla would hit. Maybe welcoming all EVs to the superchargers will help protect these future subsidies by making Tesla more appealing to a broader section of voters.

If so, this would probably outweigh all other financial implications of supercharger inclusivity combined. The $45/kWh subsidy alone is worth $45 BILLION annually ($13/share!!) directly to net income if Tesla can make 1 TWh/year of eligible batteries by 2030, and that’s roughly the goal. As Elon said on the Q4 call, it’s a “very significant” amount of money. As we look towards the latter years of this clean energy subsidy program before it starts to sunset in the early 30s, Tesla will be benefiting on the order of $1B+ per week. That can buy a lot of supercharger stations.

Thoughts?

My thought on the IRA is that it is will be unsustainable within 2-3 years or less. As we go further and further down this path, It will become clear that the subsidy faucet needs to be turned off. Hopefully they will do this in an equitable way. For example, scaling back the amount of the incentive each quarter based on prior quarter’s EV sales.

Regardless, I strongly suspect well before the government is paying $100b+ per year to Tesla this will get neutered. Hopefully the parts which encourage manufacturing cells in the US are retained for a long time even if they are reduced.

Which circles back to your comment. I don’t think it’s a good idea to consider potentially ephemeral incentives as a business plan or to use them in long term models. Certainly they belong in plans for the next 2 years or so, but after that, big questions arise.

 

[Ogre]

Just did a little bit of scaling and measuring; unfortunately the blue car pictured might be unreasonably short.

If those are 18" Aero wheels, then the car in this sketch is about 112 inches long. That's about 6 feet shorter than a Model 3 (at 184.8 inches long), or just about as long as a Smart Fortwo.

Maybe those are 24” wheels… LOL

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Hate to break it to y'all but the competition is definitely coming and they mean it this time!!

 

[Gigapress]

Pulled the colors out a bit and got rid of the background.

Can’t help but think this would be a super-fun car to drive. I can also see Tesla releasing a Performance version of this with Plaid Motors and nickel cells that would just completely blow away the low-end pocket rocket class of vehicles.

View attachment 910527

This looks like a concept car sketch more than a real vehicle.

Such sketches almost always have weird proportions that make aesthetics look better but aren’t practical, especially oversized wheels that are all rim and barely any tire, tiny windows, no mirrors, low roofline, little room for suspension travel. This image has all of that. Even the wheelbase is too short to make sense, unless this car is a 2-door coupe, and that’s very unlikely because that’s a tiny segment of the car market these days and Tesla has much higher priorities.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Pulled the colors out a bit and got rid of the background.

Can’t help but think this would be a super-fun car to drive. I can also see Tesla releasing a Performance version of this with Plaid Motors and nickel cells that would just completely blow away the low-end pocket rocket class of vehicles.

View attachment 910527

Great job, please don't eat your crayons again

 

[Artful Dodger]

Regardless, I strongly suspect well before the government is paying $100b+ per year to Tesla this will get neutered. Hopefully the parts which encourage manufacturing cells in the US are retained for a long time even if they are reduced.

The intent of the IRA is to pay for battery subsidies with a new corporate minimum tax. So in essense, it could be giving with one hand and taking with the other. There does appear to be some provision for battery manufacturers to be exempt from some of these new taxes, which may actually encourage production, though in a typically convoluted D.C. way. It would be far easier to just drop the carbon subsidies, and let the market figure it out...

 

[DarthPierce]

It would be far easier to just drop the carbon subsidies

HOW DARE YOU!

 

[mongo]

I'm surprised they wrote a whole article and didn't bother to correct the perspective. Here's my best stab off a screenshot of the YouTube 4K upload:

View attachment 910493View attachment 910494

White looks like a 4 door. Panel gap just visible at window.
Very 3 (or Y) like, but shorter...

Another way to approximate the car's max. size is by the estimating the limit on dimensions that would fit in a 9000-ton Gigapress (assuming there will be only a single casting for the entire chassis).

@mongo dug out those maximum die dimensions a while back. IIRC the max. size vehicle chassis that could be produced as a single part is somewhat shorter than a VW Golf, but still longer than a VW Polo.

To me, this is the perfect size for a Eurocar. Perhaps a 3-door sedan (w. hatchback), and a square-back CUV on the same platform?

Cheers!

Max die height (thickness) is 2.6m
Max opening stroke and tie rod spacing are also 2.6m
The platen itself is 4.1m square.
So (I think) the largest casting dimension is limited to 2.6m, unless it can be rotated to remove it.

Max listed shot weight is 284 kg at 65% cylinder fill and 95% injection stroke.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

First sighting of the magic dock in the wild I believe.
View attachment 910549

Was someone trying to be funny? Two cars parked sideways?

 

[Ogre]

First day the Supercharger is online and Rivian owners are already blocking multiple stalls so they can charge.

In some states it’s legal to put a brick through their window….

 

[Skryll]

First day the Supercharger is online and Rivian owners are already blocking multiple stalls so they can charge.

In some states it’s legal to put a brick through their window….

View attachment 910563

Disagree, it got to be a steel ball.