Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Pezpunk]

Tesla never gives the market what it wants. Oh... except money every three months.

i know Tesla uber-bulls are used to complaining about Wall Street being too short-sighted, because that's a valid complaint most of the time, but the reaction to this presentation isn't that.

The technical meat of this presentation was all stuff we'd seen before in previous presentations. The only new content was Elon going "wouldn't it be cool if we powered everything by electricity?" and then making some WAGs about how many robots could exist someday.

As a long-term investor, I found nothing new of substance here. Trust me, I could not care less about next quarter's delivery numbers. And I don't need to see a powerpoint slide showing a rendering of another concept car that is 3-5 years from production. But this presentation only gave us two things -- recycled (albeit impressive and important) content, and vague speculative fluff.

I agree with Elon that using electricity instead of fossil fuels for most of our energy needs would be wildly more efficient and is probably feasible. But that assertion is not a plan.

 

[Singuy]

Ok... Where is Master Plan Part 3? Did I miss it?

Is the joke in this master plan that there is no written plan?

Is the plan just "Electrify all the things"?

I mean it seems pretty clear the Tesla team is focused on a common goal. Looking around the edges of this presentation, it seems clear that the plan is to keep aggressively pushing the world towards sustainable energy, but... is there an actual clear written plan the way there is with part 1 and part 2? Can I link to Tesla's Master Plan Part 3?

Maybe something along the lines of turning this: "Earth can and will move to a sustainable energy economy, and will do so in your lifetime." into an action statement?

Just seems odd to me that there was no detailed plan laid out the way the previous 2 were.

Master Plan part 3.

Step 1. Relentlessly reduce cost
Step 2. Strategically deploy capex in larger scale
Step 3. Beef up supply chain, vertically integrate where deficit exist to help decrease the barrier for others to join in
Step 4. Simplify manufacturing of Gen 3 platform. Gen 3 platform seems to be the "car printing" platform, not a specific to any model.

So basically Tesla is not ready for the Gen 3 platform because it's the platform with a 20M/year demand, and Tesla cannot meet that demand without implementing the first 3 steps first.

Pretty sure lots of people were confused at what Tesla was getting at because they were waiting for the gen 3 car picture. The presentation is about talking people through what they are doing gearing up for Gen 3 by showing you the progress they made from Gen 1->gen 2, and what is still required for gen 3.

I think people don't appreciate that total world car production didn't reach 20M until 1965 from all car manufactures. Tesla wants to do it in a decade of a completely new platform being EVs by themselves. So showing a picture of a gen 3 car doesn't really mean anything besides osbourning current sales. They did not reveal a product replicator or a wishing well today, therefore they must stick to their plan methodically or it can all crumble down with many parts of the supply chain idling due to some other places being the limiting factor.

 

[ripper88]

This is extremely important. And with the potential for V2G I think people will reconsider the value of their aging Tesla vehicles if they can repurpose them. I have followed the discussions here regarding the falling prices of used Tesla vehicles with interest, particularly the discussions around a 2017 Tesla Model X. We also have a 2017 Model X 100kWh, and we have a handful of Powerwalls to connect it to. And as we approach the time we might receive our Cybertruck later this year, I was debating whether or not to trade in our Model X.

The trade-in value by that time might only be half of the value of the 100 kWh battery in our Model X if V2G is enabled without limits (if we viewed it as the equivalent of 7.4 additional installed Powerwalls):

100 kWh/13.5 kWh per Powerwall = 7.4 Powerwalls. 7.4 x $13,500/Powerwall = $100,000

And if Tesla enables V2G with a limit of only using 60% of the vehicles battery capacity as was once discussed, then our 2017 Model X parked in our garage simply acting as 4.44 Powerwalls may still worth more than the trade in value when the Cybertruck rolls out....and we can take the old Model X for beer runs. Try doing that with a Powerwall.

Now consider the value of that vehicle when VPP comes to public utility near you. You will want every bit of storage that will successfully connect with your Gateways. $$$$ coming in while displacing natural gas peaker power at the same time. Obviously we are leaning towards keeping the Model X and using it for additional storage V2G with the hopes of VPP near us soon. This will get interesting IMO, as even wrecked Tesla vehicles may demand a huge premium for anyone with a Powerwall that wants more storage and/or wants to sell more to their grid operator.

How is your X going to supply power to your home? Unless Tesla makes a hardware change to your X that allows this, it's not going to be possible. We have an X and it would be great if this was possible but I just don't see it happening.

 

[jerry33]

?? I've had sunroofs in my last several cars and virtually never opened them. Too noisy, and too much sun load. Much prefer glass roof, with more daylight, more head room and no rattles.

I used mine a lot to reduce the interior temperature when parked, but not while driving so I suppose they didn't capture that I used it.

 

[growler23]

That's funny, because I heard for the first time how they will cut $1000 in cost on the next gen platform just in drivetrain improvements.

I heard for the first time that the next gen motor will not have any rare-earth metals.

I heard stats about labor-time and labor-space reductions for the next gen model.

These notes alone gave me (and institutional investors) more insight into how Tesla is going to reduce costs for the next gen vehicles and make a lot of money. They give specific for why we can be confident Tesla will maintain an insurmountable lead.

"These notes alone" - indeed. All the presentations were singing from the same songbook:
- we are looking holistically at how we operate
- we are cutting cost, cutting part count, cutting complexity, and/or cutting labor hours
- we are increasing flexibility (programmability) and automation

... and they ALREADY lead in all of these areas! Relentless focus on OPEX reduction as promised: check!

They can sing that song all day as far as I am concerned.

Also, Master Plan 3 clear engineering path to a sustainable future: proud to be a human today. Let's get 'er done!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Huh, TSLA down 11+ after hours. If you didn't know about today, you'd think they just announced record earnings and deliveries.

 

[growler23]

Ok finally something new. Being an electric reseller. Of course that is only possible in TX currently. (unsure about other nations)

The rest of this has been good, but it's mostly "Tesla is still doing the same things, but 10% more efficiently." I wanted to see a real plan for scaling and I'm not seeing that.

And not even all of Texas - only areas with competition in the utility market. Here in Austin, we are locked in to Austin Energy, so I cannot participate with my Powerwall in this vaunted "making of money". Saving my butt during power outages and storing a little of my solar will have to suffice for my Powerwall.

 

[GSP]

Yes, people have lots to learn on this new energy model. Recommend 2 PW and whole home backup, or you wont have AC in case of an outage. Az speak anyway.

“ If you unplug your car, you dont have any lights” nice.

I don’t get the concern about unpluging your car. First, it only applies during power outages, not for daily usage to avoid using the grid during peak hours. Second, most households in the US have multiple cars, so no big deal to leave one of them plugged in when the grid power is out.

GSP

 

[jerry33]

Charging as a subscription is very cool. I wish I could do that here.

$30/month per car (I assume per car) is more than I'm paying for charging the X and the Leaf. A good deal in California though.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Tesla AI training will increase 100x within 2 years. Elon: "People aren't appreciating how big a deal this is". UH, yes, yes I do appreciate it! This alone should bring FSD into line with reality. That and V4 hardware of course (especially a newer FSD in car computer).

Also, bi-directional charging to all vehicles within 2 years. Frankly, I don't care about V2G which is what Elon keeps going on about. Much more interesting is V2L to power things while camping, on a job site, or as temporary backup power during a storm.

There is hope we will see Model 2 before the Mexican factory is built consider Elon didn't even answer that part of that question. Poor guy, none of his questions were answered!

Also, I would have loved to hear Elon answer the specific question of whether ChatGPT technology will help with the Teslabot, but the guy asking that question didn't know what he was asking and completely mangled the question which allowed Elon to answer a different question, which was his standard doom and gloom AI is going to screw us over royally. Sigh.

 

[Ogre]

Lifecycle of a Tesla event. Maybe pin this to your wall for the next event so you can reference it. Right now we’re somewhere between the pessimism and capitulation phase. Might take a few days to get through the post-event hangover. By then there will be a couple of good videos from The Limiting Factor and maybe Munro talking about the impact of all of this.

I’m pretty sure Munro is going to be absolutely floored about the assembly line stuff that was presented.


EDIT: I am going to post this prior to every event because it seems like we hear the same complaints after every Tesla event.

 

[gabeincal]

Lifecycle of a Tesla event. Maybe pin this to your wall for the next event so you can reference it. Right now we’re somewhere between the pessimism and capitulation phase. Might take a few days to get through the post-event hangover. By then there will be a couple of good videos from The Limiting Factor and maybe Munro talking about the impact of all of this.

View attachment 912810

I’m pretty sure Munro is going to be absolutely floored about the assembly line stuff that was presented.

Works every time…

 

[Xepa777]

Bidirectional power to all vehicles within ~next 2 years....Elon then cuts in to add he still doesn't think it's super useful and go buy powerwalls

There's a great debate for the vision of the future.

Vision #1: Everyone has electric cars that can charge homes during emergency events. During an emergency event, no one's gonna get pissed that power goes out when the car drives out because the car's going to stay there and provide emergency power for grandma / the newborn / keep freezer alive. And a Cybertruck's worth of batteries can keep a house powered for long enough for the grid to go back online.

Vision #2: Every home has a dedicated Power Wall and becomes a virtual power plant, which disintermediates utility companies (when combined with backup megapack energy storage) and effectively enables Tesla to BE the utility, as it manages the software and takes a % cut of power re-direction. Cars can't do this because it will mess up their batteries if it's used this often.

Elon WANTS vision #2, the problem is...I don't believe costs will lower enough in the next 4-6 years for that future to occur. And if that doesn't occur, then other car makers with far less ambition will provide this functionality and have a genuine, meaningful Pro vs. buying a Tesla car. Tesla Powerwalls are prohibitively expensive for most, even if you reduce the price by 50% it's still expensive on an absolute basis (vs. grid-powered energy) and STILL more expensive than batteries from China (and don't give me that BS about the "brand" of Tesla Powerwalls, everyone buys cheap stuff from China at Walmart and Amazon and price ultimately rules mostly everything).

 

[wtlloyd]

Still struggling with the DBE but making progress.

Some comfort in that while they weren't specific about yields or problems encountered, what they did describe was the sort of issues encountered by volume ramping and not the inherent process itself - that is, no deal breaker barriers hit, just a steady march on volume and yield. They did say that while they are perfectionists, at some point they would be satisfied enough to warrant production lines being replicated in quantity

 

[wipster]

What is a cross top?

Speed (old school)

 

[Xepa777]

This event builds anticipation but honestly was not needed. They could have used one of their fantastic quarterly earnings or sustainability documents to outline it. I love this company but this is going to be a self inflicted wound in the short term until March/April. IMO best case we trade around 200 for months. Tesla needs to get better at keeping things close to the vest till they are ready to show it.

With that said I loved the animations showing how they are going to build new cars....but we are going to have to wait 2 years or more to have anyone tear it apart. Tesla is the best because they are fearless in attempting to solve problems even if it seems too slow for us die hards. Most people are not like "us" and that will continue to propel Tesla as more and more people buy them because they are great, not because they have 48v wiring, or insane cash generating abilities. I do legitimately believe Elon when he says Tesla's have infinite demand and it's all based on price and value.

I was really, really hoping for a new model 3 as a reason to justify to my wife going into debt for a car. But looks like I will continue driving our paid off cars till the Cybertruck ships. All is well, carry on, enjoy the ride.

This event was a giant bait-and-switch for instituional investors. "Oh, you think we're going to give you roadmaps, projections, and details you can put in your spreadsheet in a nifty 1.5 hours? Guess what dummy, we're LOCKING YOU in this room for 4+ hours and FORCING you to listen to all this stuff we've said in Battery Day, AI Day, etc. that you've ignored/passed off to your analyst underlinings and you're going to see in depth why we're the absolute best!" lol

Then again this event was announced on the eve of a bad earnings report when the stock price was low $100s. Imagine if the share price was $85 during the time of this event, everyone would riot. They'd probably give some of those juicy details. But with the shareprice at $200 they could be a little more lax with throwing out the red meat.

 

[jerry33]

I would not be surprised to see the PW gateway box be a critical part of this.

Perhaps if you want V2H/G you have to have at least one PW?

Having one PW with the car backing it up means the cost of PW is effectively halved as there would be no need to purchase two.

 

[EVNow]

Az speak anyway.

Yes - very location dependent. In the PNW ... the idea is not all that "hot". I mean ... few even have AC here !

 

[mickle]

As a long-term investor, I found nothing new of substance here. Trust me, I could not care less about next quarter's delivery numbers. And I don't need to see a powerpoint slide showing a rendering of another concept car that is 3-5 years from production.

I think we have a pretty good timeline for the next-gen vehicle. They said it will be made in Mexico. If they start building the factory in a few months and its done mid-2024, then we should see cars coming out around the end of 2024. I don't think they'll start building unless they have a production timeline, so we'll have a better idea once they start breaking ground.

 

[EVNow]

Having one PW with the car backing it up means the cost of PW is effectively halved as there would be no need to purchase two.

Yes - not having V2G is a bummer. Why pay $30k for a 26 kWh storage system when the car has > 75 kWh already ...