Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

And yet the analysts continue to discount this and fsd. I have spent quite too much time at Walter reed so yeah. A bit fixated on working hands. If Tesla can solve this than there are tens of thousands of amputees that will gain ...so much.

Analysts discount anything that isn't a shipping product, they have no insight nor vision. Making a robot hand function for a robot is an easier prospect than making one that correctly interfaces with a person. I expect some crossover eventually but it's really a separate problem.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Did people notice how most of the presenters started off saying how many long years they’ve been working at Tesla? That narrative about Elon burning out top talent … busted.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What did people expect? Was never going to be a car reveal.

Yeah @DaveT nailed this one: ( thanks for the clip @farzyness )

Dave Lee on Tesla Investor Day (Super Cut PART 1) | Farzad Mesbahi

 

[2101Guy]

And yet the analysts continue to discount this and fsd. I have spent quite too much time at Walter reed so yeah. A bit fixated on working hands. If Tesla can solve this than there are tens of thousands of amputees that will gain ...so much.

The reason Analysts are not giving much credence to FSD, is most likely due to the reality of Tesla/Elon's prior promises about what FSD can do, when, and how much additional revenue that would bring, and when. Add to that the recent multiple lawsuits, investigations, the recall, and well, not hard to see why analysts are skeptical about seeing any significant/bottom line changing FSD related revenue over the next quarter or two (minimum)

With wall street, setting expectations unrealistically high, and not delivering on those expectations, typically not a good thing.

 

[JRP3]

Yeah, I wished I could have used mine more on my Signature S, but I wonder if that was a lot of people's experiences. Living in Manitoba with almost 6 months of cold weather reduced my usage for sure. I'd love to see their numbers - it's a MASSIVE edge for Tesla to get real life data and not have to rely on polls or "common sense" about features.

This is the correct take. A sunroof is a bunch of extra parts and failure points in the roof of a vehicle that fleet wide gets little use. Anecdotal experiences to the contrary can't be taken into account by a company intent on streamlining production and driving down costs.

 

[larmor]

No need to V2H since in the near future, the most time efficient use of charging would be at work, with solar covered parking lots. Solar at home to fill battery for night use, car is not at home.

 

[Singuy]

Tesla plan part 1

How can we make EVs so enticing to help transition the world to sustainable transport? The world must see EVs has the demand and can be profitable so the world can jump on board.

Tesla Plan part 2

How can we make investments to a sustainable future so enticing that they will stop investing into fossil fuels? We must show the world the demand for a sustainable future while showing mass return on investment by reducing cost and capex for the world to copy in our foot steps.

First they moved products, now they move tonnage.

 

[JRP3]

No need to V2H since in the near future, the most time efficient use of charging would be at work, with solar covered parking lots. Solar at home to fill battery for night use, car is not at home.

V2H is for power backup as well. Plus with more remote work many cars are at home for much of the day, especially after Optimus takes over all jobs.

 

[zannman]

Wait a minute…people touting V2G/V2H are saying it’s cheaper and more storage than a Powerwall, so they want it instead of paying up for permanent storage. So no, that is not the use case being discussed.

Again, in an emergency, yes, it would be useful. So would simply having a converter from the 12v out to 120v to power essential appliances (refrigerator). The notion of driving back and forth during a blackout to a working supercharger to keep your house going is about as practical as using your ICE car as a generator during an outage to power your house from the 12v plug and refueling at the gas station as needed.

V2G might be great in a rare emergency, but the right infrastructure is not there for general use and the right infrastructure is not to enable the car to be a primary backup source, but to have permanent stationary storage. With or without solar. I wouldn’t want to risk not being able to leave the area if necessary because I was running my fridge, TV or whatever instead.

I'm not sure you have the right idea about what problem V2G is trying to solve.

V2G will need to work hand-in-hand with utility programs to help peak-shave load to be useful. Deployed and used in a fleet, it could substantially help the grid if there are incentives built-in for consumers to take advantage. This will require fundamental change on the utility side as well as the consumer side.

I don't believe it was ever intended to be emergency power. That would be V2L.

 

[Max Plaid]

I should disagree with this because it fails to understand what they told us Gen 3 was;
It is a platform, with at least two specific vehicles based on the platform coming soon.
Those will have a 50% cost reduction compared with Model 3 IIRC. Once we all digest the information that was disclosed the significance of gen 3 becomes evident. That platform, they did not say, probably will have something akin to a single large pressing and a single additional structural battery that will carry the interior with it. That process could be high automated and vastly scalable. New versions on the platform could be quite varied with modest cost differences.

Bluntly, I am convinced this is the fruition of the old promised Mattel model Elon talked about a decade or so ago.

Of course I understand that Gen 3 is the production method, not the car, but OP stated that Tesla could derive the MQ by taking the M3, chopping off the bonnet and trunk, reduce the battery pack - this I disagreed with

 

[Rarity]

This really had a ton of detail, so like @unk45, it will need to stew a bit for me.

The breaking ground to commissioning in less than a year on the lithium refinery, and the detail that the refinery will accept varied feedstock, demonstrates that lithium will not be a limiting factor. This is a factory in the United States.

 

[X Fan]

A WSJ article in the spirit of days gone past whereas their assigned writer was a clear EV/TESLA troll.

Highlights:
don’t buy the stock since it is volatile
product line is aging
EV competition is there and coming
demand may not track to burgeoning supply.

No News Is Bad News at Tesla

The investor day featured much discussion of the efficiency of Tesla’s next-generation production platform, but no hint of what it might actually build on it.

www.wsj.com

 

[Featsbeyond50]

No need to V2H since in the near future, the most time efficient use of charging would be at work, with solar covered parking lots. Solar at home to fill battery for night use, car is not at home.

I agree but, virtually everyone would like V2H. Another subtle reminder, Tesla prioritizes the mission over the customer.

 

[insaneoctane]

The $25k car will not be announced until it is nearly production ready. It will cut demand for other Tesla products. People "Tesla stretch" now, a would be Prius owner spends $10k more than budget to get a Tesla. Those buyers will get the $25k car. Tesla will not be able to keep it a total secret... but we probably won't see the look and price until 3 months before if Tesla is masterful. The disruption could make a lower quarter or two. Announcing it now would be very bad.

I agree. As evidence, do we have another example where Tesla announced the factory before unveiling the product?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

This is the correct take. A sunroof is a bunch of extra parts and failure points in the roof of a vehicle that fleet wide gets little use. Anecdotal experiences to the contrary can't be taken into account by a company intent on streamlining production and driving down costs.

My pano roof on my 2013 S had endless problems of leakage into my cabin. Countless visits to the SC yielded no results. Thank goodness i live in an area with minimal rain, although washing the car had to take extra caution

 

[betstarship]

I agree. As evidence, do we have another example where Tesla announced the factory before unveiling the product?

Excuse me, sir. The factory is the product.

 

[GOVA]

Elon said again that Tesla Automotive will eventually be a minority among other things they do. People seem to miss that a lot.

Now, "the competition" still aims to compete with Tesla from years ago and fails miserably. The non-auto Tesla products have no competition as it has been hardly noticed.

People still have no idea what a monster of a company Tesla will be. People discuss sun roofs now.

 

[NicoV]

And I liked it, it reduces the key man risk since yesterday showed Tesla is full of people that know what they're doing and have a +10year roadmap to get there.

And each those people made clear that they are already 10+ years at Tesla, they have the track record they know what they’re doing.

 

[electracity]

No need to V2H since in the near future, the most time efficient use of charging would be at work, with solar covered parking lots. Solar at home to fill battery for night use, car is not at home.

It depends where you live. Wind and nuclear usually have lowest prices overnight.

 

[saniflash]

Did people notice how most of the presenters started off saying how many long years they’ve been working at Tesla? That narrative about Elon burning out top talent … busted.

Survivorship bias. Of course a few survive and make it to the top.

Not saying what you're stating must necessarily be false. Just saying that this observation is not overwhelming proof.