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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Interesting thread about 2023 auto sales in China and the current price war there. There is a strong preference for EVs, but the ICE price cuts may eat into those sales nonetheless.
IMHO not enough time for Elon to get his ducks in a row. Some Big Bank will jump in to grab the market SVB was serving. Thinking back, for example, to the 2008 crash when WFC bought Wachovia for a song. WFC had been gradually pushing Eastward, and Wachovia was largely an east coast bank. So even though WFC execs took a lot of flack for buying it, and having to dig out of a lot of bad Wachovia debt, it accelerated their expansion plans by years.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
No, not a chance. Elon has most of the skills but this is a harshly difficult situation that will take huge manpower and resources that make that implausible. The technical issue is that numerous equity investments have deposit relationships too and many fo those are threatened now. That makes this solution more analogous to, say, a venture capital investor with deposits attached than to a traditional bank. One needs to think 2008-style approaches, and those were not ever very public in detail despite huge headlines. This has much that character coupled with dicy real estate exposure in some horrible commercial markets.
I'm glad I'm retired!
JP Morgan was once a fortress. Now they're just another brand in the JPMC conglomerate of Chase Manhattan, Chemical, Many Hanny..but of course it began in 1799 with a water company, thus Bank of the Manhattan Company.
As a 1972 international banking trainee i had to memorize the history and be trained in etiquette around the world. Back then you actually had to learn things to be a banker.
IT soon died./
It seems pretty clear that Musk wants to get into the banking business on his personal book. But it doesn't appear that he's set up to absorb SVB. Not that SVB would be a bad asset to have. Quite the contrary.
He can start with a much smaller bank and work his way up.
He can start with a much smaller bank and work his way up.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Accurate, I did go all in on TSLA before the end of 2016 but I kept buying in and I didn't have much to start with.
No issues with stop losses, I've never sold a share for any reason.
My accounts with TSLA are up or down:
Rollover 758% (cost basis is 5 figures)
Retail -24% (cost basis is 5 figures)
Current 401k self directed -31% (cost basis is 5 figures)
Roth -22% (cost basis is 5 figures)
averaged out it's a gain of 211% but I'd need a 10x from here to retire. Maybe if I hadn't dollar cost averaged even at the highest points I'd have double what I have now (I could have bought more shares a lower cost basis) but I'd still not have enough to retire.
If I had a larger egg to start with that 2013/2016 cost basis pile was up 20x at one point, and could have paid for a retirement. I just didn't have enough to start with.
Tes La Ferrari
Active Member
Though I have my baseline amount of TSLA, I do get tempted to add some LEAPS or chairs if an even more amazing opportunity presents itself.
In light of Elon’s recent options exercise, does he usually sell a bit right away upon exercise to cover taxes ?
In light of Elon’s recent options exercise, does he usually sell a bit right away upon exercise to cover taxes ?
Nice to hope. Despite Elon's tweet he's not stupid enough to take this one on. Everything he wants to do in any financial service he does know how to do. Buying a 'not very good' operational base is useless for him, especially because his goals depend on having excellent operating controls, high efficiency and tight control. "ain't nothin' like that in any broken, high expense, PR driven, outfit like SVB'. The sales technique you're suggesting has caused more claims on delist insurance than you'd imagine. At its best commercial banking should look boring. If the parties are good the bank's not.
Elon has a long history, back to zip2, of being conservative financially. 'course he did total that million dollar McLaren. Otherwise he has has been consistently conservative financially., although he's bet the bank couple times in the early days. He'll not avid all the financial stuff but he'll continue learning step by step. From product financing to insurance to supplier support Tesla and SpaceX do make immense effort to avoid the risks they can, and mitigate the ones they cannot. In these fields they're conservative.
That's why they don't pay dividends or do buybacks, although they pretend to consider them to placate important parties. That is why Tesla is among the least leveraged large companies in existence. That is why a relentless insistence on efficiency keeps margins high and prices low.
So a longwinded way to say buying failed banks out of FDIC is a highly specialized business. Some are just enough to be liquidated soon after, and some should never have been acquired at all.
When in doubt, go LONG TSLA!
Dikkie Dik
If gets hard, use hammer
Midnight Cherry Red is shipping in Europe 
So if @unk45 goes dark on TMC, we will know that you are the architect and puppet master behind Elon’s take over of SVB. Good luck!
I don’t think he could stomach the regulation, nor would the regulators tolerate his style.
Tes La Ferrari
Active Member
Though he hasn’t been afraid of the authorities before, I can’t imagine they including the SEC are big Elon fans.
One of my favorite Elon moments was when he described what the SEC acronym stood for, with the middle letter standing for “Elon’s”
Brandenburg's Minister President Dietmar Woidke is backing phase 2 expansion of 
Giga Berlin which will up Giga Berlin’s capacity to 1 million vehicles per year. Goes on to predict GB will have capacity for 2m vehicles per year down the line.
While Woidke doesn’t have any insight into Tesla’s GB plans, he does know how much space they have and how much expansion the site is capable of supporting.
Giga Texas is much bigger than Giga Berlin and Mexico bigger yet. So possibly capacity of 3 million+ in each of those locations. Brings the potential capacity beyond 10m per year total capacity without any new locations.
Gen 3 might will likely push that number higher.
PS: These are meant as conservative numbers. A good case could be made from each of the above numbers to be 30-50% higher.
Giga Berlin which will up Giga Berlin’s capacity to 1 million vehicles per year. Goes on to predict GB will have capacity for 2m vehicles per year down the line.While Woidke doesn’t have any insight into Tesla’s GB plans, he does know how much space they have and how much expansion the site is capable of supporting.
Giga Texas is much bigger than Giga Berlin and Mexico bigger yet. So possibly capacity of 3 million+ in each of those locations. Brings the potential capacity beyond 10m per year total capacity without any new locations.
Gen 3 might will likely push that number higher.
PS: These are meant as conservative numbers. A good case could be made from each of the above numbers to be 30-50% higher.
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Captkerosene
Member
You make good points.
Just to play a little Devil's Advocate:
- Elon has maybe 150B? in unencumbered assets that have low debt themselves. He has the firepower to get this done.
- Govt needs a deal done before Monday.
- Govt could guarantee value of assets to get the deal done. Govt could also take 49% of shares through warrants to make it a fair deal for taxpayers.
- I won't speak for Elon but it may be that he thinks that he's been abused by bankers ... would love a little payback.
- What better place to innovate at than a bank that pushes innovation.
- Bankers have a lot of power. Elon needs power to play in the bigs ... and that's where he's playing.
- Tesla is an innovation machine. Being loosely connected to hundreds of early stage tech companies might uncover some tremendous synergies. (Hard to imagine Tesla needing more good ideas to pursue, but one of these businesses may have the next Trillion dollar idea that only Tesla can execute on.) How many next-gen battery startups are at least partly funded by SVB?
- It'll be terrible for the country if SVB gets absorbed by another big "boring" bank - even worse if the Govt runs them. (Remember that they bankrupted the Mustang Ranch!) They won't know what to do with the assets and many good ventures will get shut down.
Just to be clear, I don't expect it to happen but I like to think ahead on what could happen.
Another question if you have time: What are the chances of contagion on Monday (or Tuesday) ... with a market crash of say 20%? I put it at somewhere between unlikely and almost impossible but the odds are not zero. If rumors of Elon trying to get into this deal surface then won't the "Elon selling more shares" narrative start again? Long-term investor here so I view these events as possible opportunities. Not much cash sitting around for me right now but at the right (highly discounted) price I could find a little.
Because the space, auto, insurance, and electrical industries are light on regulation?
You confuse what Musk says with what he is capable of dealing with. Or at least capable of relegating. Musk is already hip deep in lots of regulation heavy industries. He will complain about it a bunch, but it’s part of doing business.
I was surprised that I paid $17 to charge 40 kWh yesterday in Aberdeen, WA Supercharger. That was .425 per kWh! I have not been using supercharger for a year (or so), but this seems pretty high. Has Tesla been raising the price?I do have a little problem with their data that says it costs $13.44 to charge a Tesla Model Y for 100 miles of range. My Model Y Dual Motor uses .245 kWh per mile, so 24.5 kWh for 100 miles. That works out to 55 cents per mile @ $13.44! Does anyone charge that much, or are they using some "worst case" example from California? The highest I have ever paid was 35 cents in Jacksonville. And, of course, their figure for home charging works out to about 18 cents per kWh, far above the national average. Maybe the whole article is based on California costs.
TWTR must be profitable already so hes probably paying taxes with that profit. /pray
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