Toyota will at best be a small shell of its current size, if it survives at all. I say this as a former long time Toyota fan.Thank you! A very good (short) read. One of the upshots, scary and yet exhilarating:
I still keep my eye on Toyota, the behemoth and (pre-Tesla) the one who once set the standard in manufacturing innovation. Year after year (even going back to my Prius days) I watched them stutter and obfuscate against EVs, when they could have leveraged their high-power electronics and battery experience from the Prius to define and dominate this new market. Hydrogen Forever indeed
Will Toyota survive? Can Japan allow them to fail? Could it even afford to keep them afloat? This one company's fate has global economic implications (as do the other big ones, but Toyota is massive).
By contrast, per the article, Tesla remains exceedingly well positioned in terms of eating the lunches of former bullies.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Optimeer
Member
Another method to estimate the deliveries in certain markets is comparing the number of ships with the spreadshet which is linked on the TeslaCarriers Website. Below my summary:
I didn‘t find any ships from Europe to Taiwan, possibly these ships are missing in the list.
The number of cars shipped to Europe remained roughly constant compared to the past quarter which was a record quarter. Since the production output at Giga Berlin was increased this quarter, i expect record deliveries in Europe. From the number of Ships we can also expect record deliveries in Asia excl. China.
Since we could read from datapoints which indicate record deliveries in the US and in China, I expect record deliveries overall in Q1/2023 and record deliveries in most countries. I expect that the deliveries will be higher than expected by Wallstreet. I do not expect the shareprice taking off after a beat in Productions and Deliveries since the margins are the big question mark. However, the EPS expectations are difficult to beat after the significantly reduced selling prices.
I still expect lower profits compared to last quarters but still a profit due to economies of scale, further improved efficiencies, lower raw material costs (e.g. lithium) and IRA credits to the producer of batteries and batteries packs. I expect the contribution of the ramping megapack production still to be very limited and Semi deliveries will be insignificant for this quarter.
But it is equally important that Tesla put a lot of pressure on its competitiors in this quarter and Tesla will benefit in the long term from this.
I didn‘t find any ships from Europe to Taiwan, possibly these ships are missing in the list.
The number of cars shipped to Europe remained roughly constant compared to the past quarter which was a record quarter. Since the production output at Giga Berlin was increased this quarter, i expect record deliveries in Europe. From the number of Ships we can also expect record deliveries in Asia excl. China.
Since we could read from datapoints which indicate record deliveries in the US and in China, I expect record deliveries overall in Q1/2023 and record deliveries in most countries. I expect that the deliveries will be higher than expected by Wallstreet. I do not expect the shareprice taking off after a beat in Productions and Deliveries since the margins are the big question mark. However, the EPS expectations are difficult to beat after the significantly reduced selling prices.
I still expect lower profits compared to last quarters but still a profit due to economies of scale, further improved efficiencies, lower raw material costs (e.g. lithium) and IRA credits to the producer of batteries and batteries packs. I expect the contribution of the ramping megapack production still to be very limited and Semi deliveries will be insignificant for this quarter.
But it is equally important that Tesla put a lot of pressure on its competitiors in this quarter and Tesla will benefit in the long term from this.
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Regardless of how impossible the statutes are to implement, treasury is on thin ICE interpreting the legislation in a manner that is arguably materially different than what was voted.
Olle
Active Member
Sure, in the long term it may not matter who's first with FSD because of said manufacturing advantage.Other carmakers catching up to FSD eventually is really not a valid concern. Elon told us literally years ago that all carmakers eventually would have self-driving technology. Tesla's long-term advantage will be in manufacturing:
Elon Musk: "Tesla's Long-Term Competitive Advantage will be in Manufacturing" | Cleantechnica (2020-08-21)
1 week later, he sent this tweet:
'Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury, I present the "unboxed plant" w. Tesla 'bots' (Mar 01, 2023)
[drops mic]
From an intermediate time perspective perspective I think it's concerning if Tesla is not first with FSD.
FSD however, as a hard AI problem, must also be put in the perspective of AGI, which might very will come at the same time (i.e. per definition an AI that is general, can also drive).
Once there is AGI available to the auto industry, one could argue that there cannot be any manufacturing advantages, because AGI will figure out the most optimal production system and thus commoditize all finished products so that their cost will tend toward the input materials. The owner of the land, mines and raw material cycle would make all the money.
Competitive advantages depend largely on the time horizon.
The legislature is the branch of government that will (has?) codify Treasury's (executive branch) guidance. Judicial branch would be the ones to determine if there was an issue (after a suit is filed).
Though I agree, the whole not-a-deadline part irks me (but is not unprecedented in the the history of Congress).
I believe they accounted for 10-12% of Toyota's U.S. sales during those years. That was exceptional for a rather radical car. For the BEVs, I'm pretty sure their thought was that batteries were so heavy a practical car could never be made. Toyota called their RAV4-EV "the battery carrier".
navguy12
Active Member
One caveat: even Tesla recommends lubricating the brake calipers/caliper sliding pins once a year if the car is used in snow conditions.Gheghe nice thread, Tesla
In fact, I’m doing mine tomorrow when I change my snow tires back to the all seasons…
I think a step was missed. Having the capital to rebuild the factories to be more efficient and still make a profit during the transition. This is similar to what they said about nuclear power. It would be so cheap once running that prices would drop to almost nothing. However, the cost and time of building the plants (and decommissioning them at EOL) made them not as cheap as initially thought.
Captkerosene
Member
An alternative would be to spin out the FSD division. Our competition might be happy to use the Tesla FSD hardware and software package as long as it isn't part of Tesla. Once we get into their cars it will be hard to get us back out. Otherwise, It's us against the world ... and we may not win that fight.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
I really enjoyed Lora's follow up. "Why didn't you stop me from lying before I was caught in it?"
Did "Journalist" missed journalism 101? Can't confirm your numbers, you don't publish it.
She asked a fair question. Tesla didn't respond because they dont have a PR dept. This story is front page on PV Mag and many other eco friendly press center pubs. The consulting company should have been shot down before publication. Regardless of what the real number is it's free press for Teslas competitors. Which all brings back a great question...why are these things so so expensive and hard to get into the market. This is a market that is literally there for the taking. Where the powerwall has been the gold standard of retail home battery storage.
A consulting company published those, why didn't Tesla react? Tesla has no PR dept. I didn't read about that on network news but on PV-Magazine site. Tesla needs a PR dept.
Because Elon is dead set on making MSM dig their own grave. Tesla draws in clicks on views, however it's full of misinformation and a land mine when the owner of Twitter with over 130M followers loving to call you out. This is the chess Elon decided to play. MSM keeps falling for the trap, making themselves less and less credible to the point that people no longer trust them. It's what they get for prioritizing click traffic for real Journalism.
Journalists are not just looking for information, they are looking for information which supports their narrative.
Providing no information means they run their narrative with incorrect information and destroy their credibility.
There are a handful of fringe media outfits prepared to provide objective bias free coverage of Tesla.
When in doubt, don't feed the Chickens.
No you have it backwards. Treasury executes the legislature’s statutes. (Yes, the executive branch also provides guidance prior to a law being passed, but what is passed by the legislature IS the law, and the executive branch is supposed to follow it.)
Yup, MSM is playing lawyer, only presenting information that supports their narrative.Journalists are not just looking for information, they are looking for information which supports their narrative.
Providing no information means they run their narrative with incorrect information and destroy their credibility.
There are a handful of fringe media outfits prepared to provide objective bias free coverage of Tesla.
When in doubt, don't feed the Chickens.
Sales sure, but at what margin? For most of the post 2008 period, oil prices were low and the Priuses were priced accordingly.
In the case on the IRA, congress gave Treasury the authority to set the guidance on eligibility.
That is separate from implementing said guidance.
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