Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cosmacelf]

And at some point the high water mark 50% growth goal becomes less and less likely.

Everyone is focused on vehicle unit volume, but the thing that really matters is revenue growth. And the thing that really, really matters is earnings growth, with the IRA and FSD revenue affecting that last one a fair bit.

For example, last year’s (2022) YoY vehicle unit volume grew 43%, while revenue grew 50% and earnings grew 130%. It’s the earnings that juices EPS. Unit vehicle volume is just one number that goes into calculating the earnings.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I can understand 2-3k in transit. But 9k in transit when you’re entire production for the quarter is 19k is just bad logistics planning.

Yeah, turns out that "9k in transit" is just one shipload of S/X to each of Europe and China, plus S/X inventory similar to end-of-Q4 in N.America. Batching production w. 1 ship/qtr is the only reasonable way to deliver low-volume, high-priced cars in foreign markets w/o incurring high expedite costs. But that also means these cars can't always be delivered in the same qtr they were built.

In fact, end-of-year S/X inventory was probably closer to 4.5K when only N.America was open for sales, so if there's only 3k remaining in U.S. inventory after Q1, that implies stronger deliveries for S/X in N.America this quarter (with less logistics pressure due to batch shipping).

the big miss on S/X is not all that important... But it will be a material hit on margins...

I don't think this is the case. I believe GAAP says that finished goods remain on the Balance Sheet until the revenue is recognized, at which time they move to the Income Statement together with their COGS, which I also believe also includes factory labor for assembly.

The larger point is that Telsa no longer needs to sacrifice gross margins for the sake of early deliveries on it's high-end vehicles. They will all get delivered to the highest paying customer before year-end, and that's what matters for FY2023.

Cheers!

 

[dhanson865]

From our friend James Stephenson (I cannot underscore enough)

source tweet

 

[Artful Dodger]

People will criticize Tesla despite being a record quarter over Q4 in garbage economic conditions... but once other auto companies come out with their numbers, it's going to be sweet sweet syrup.

Sweet'n'sour.

Cheers to the Dogs!

 

[Singuy]

Im not arguing that the big miss on S/X is all that important. It’s not important.

But it will be a material hit on margins and there will be plenty of cars bear narratives around S/X until we get Q2’s numbers

It's a hit to free cash flow but not a hit to margins. Margins are calculated once revenue is recognized. If you don't know the revenue obtained for the product, you don't know what the margins are.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I am not a fan or critic of Troy but Interestingly, if you average his 10 forecasts, the number comes in at 422,600 - indeed very close to actuals.

So ur sayin "Once you've shoveled enuf *sugar*, you knowlonger need to flush"?

As usual, Tesla is hitting home runs while the others are picking their noses rounding turd.

FTFY.

Cheers!

 

[petit_bateau]

Inventory at end of Q4-2022 was 70,249 being 13d of deliveries (i.e. sales, at 75d/qtr)

Q1-2023 increased inventory by 17,933 bringing it to 88,182.

88,182 / (422,875 / 75) = 88,182/5,638 = 15.6 days of sales, i.e. rounds to 16d

So overall this is not a particularly significant growth in inventory. Especially when considering that includes stock in transit on ships as well as rail and road transport, plus show rooms, plus holding centres. For example that would be only (say) 8-10 shiploads in total. So 4 ships at sea; 2 shiploads in factory parking lots awaiting loading; 2 shiploads at unloading sites; and 2 shiploads spread around (750+) showrooms and delivery centres. The point being pretty quickly you can very reasonably account for 88k units.

It looks to me like the inventory changes are beginning to stabilise as the wave has significantly unwound. At least that is how I (cautiously) interpret the data, and provided that nothing slips.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Maybe THAT is the power of Twitter and why Elon bought the platform.

DING DING DING DING! Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

You Sir have won the Internet for Sunday, April 2nd, 2023.

Please leave the keys under the mat before 11:59 pm. Thank-you kindly.

Cheers!

 

[insaneoctane]

They have yet to change the headline of the article they linked in the new tweet.

It serves a purpose.

 

[CitizenKane]

4,683 Tesla's registered in Sweden during Q1, a rise of 49.5% compared to Q1 2022. Tesla is the fifth largest car brand in Q1 and the only of those five that grows. Volvo keeps first spot with about double as many registered cars as Tesla. Model Y was the best selling car in March, while there are very few Model S and Model X being registered in Q1. We who are in line need to wait a bit longer...

Privatmarknaden för personbilar dök kraftigt under årets första kvartal

mobilitysweden.se

 

[Ogre]

Well that settles that. Cybervault is a locker for your charging station. Lot of hype for not a lot of anything.

I think most of us here figured it was something along these lines but I’ve seen people making a big deal over it elsewhere.

Tesla China shares image 'Cybervault' product, but there are still lots of questions

On Friday Tesla China teased a new product unveiling set for April 3 with a mysterious ‘Cybervault’ post on social media showing something covered in a black cloth. On Saturday that cloth was removed, but […]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[EVMeister]

Well that settles that. Cybervault is a locker for your charging station. Lot of hype for not a lot of anything.

I think most of us here figured it was something along these lines but I’ve seen people making a big deal over it elsewhere.

Tesla China shares image 'Cybervault' product, but there are still lots of questions

On Friday Tesla China teased a new product unveiling set for April 3 with a mysterious ‘Cybervault’ post on social media showing something covered in a black cloth. On Saturday that cloth was removed, but […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Wrong link? Seems to settle nothing and was posted a few days ago. Assume this Tweet should've been linked (and it does link to the original article, but there are no updates in the article itself):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1642733580874047488

 

[15Peter20]

Aaaand down we go in pre-market. You couldn’t make this shizzle up.

 

[Ogre]

Wrong link? Seems to settle nothing and was posted a few days ago. Assume this Tweet should've been linked (and it does link to the original article, but there are no updates in the article itself):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1642733580874047488

Thanks. I like to link the article rather than a tweet if it’s available. I just assumed they updated it with… something. My bad.

 

[CorneliusXX]

And thats how you should compare. (But 4% isnt "clearly dead"). I see YoY is much used in here, as it looks better than QoQ...But:
Last year Tesla could not deliver enough cars, and cannot be compared to this quarter. Also, Tesla is priced as a growth company on Nasdaq (and then some), (and Tesla also says that themselves).

YoY is better if there is seasonality in the numbers. As an extreme example, retailers usually make over half their annual sales over the Christmas period - if we compared QoQ they would look like they were having disasters every Q1. This metric is not helpful to get an understanding of the retailing business.

We know that with autos there tends to be some seasonality as people are less likely to purchase a new vehicle in the winter and there are 2 fewer days for production in Q1 vs Q4, along with a few other seasonal factors.

 

[Brn2Run]

YoY is better if there is seasonality in the numbers. As an extreme example, retailers usually make over half their annual sales over the Christmas period - if we compared QoQ they would look like they were having disasters every Q1. This metric is not helpful to get an understanding of the retailing business.

We know that with autos there tends to be some seasonality as people are less likely to purchase a new vehicle in the winter and there are 2 fewer days for production in Q1 vs Q4, along with a few other seasonal factors.

Of course. But not with growth companies. First and foremost Tesla ia a growth compny, not a cyclical one.
Last year Tesla could not produce enough cars to cover the demand. This year they produced more than they sold. But its no big deal for me.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Of course. But not with growth companies. First and foremost Tesla ia a growth compny, not a cyclical one.
Last year Tesla could not produce enough cars to cover the demand. This year they produced more than they sold. But its no big deal for me.

That is an offsetting factor but it depends on the quantum of both. If seasonality expects a ~10% decline QoQ and growth is expected to be ~10% QoQ then a flat result QoQ in total is about right. Of course we should also expect a >10% increase when seasonality works in our favour (e.g. Q3 for Tesla)

 

[oldTAVguy]

Let us also remember that the interest rate increases must have put a damper on sales. We will know this when we see what the OEMs do.

 

[Favguy]

No, I am not buying that. There is a ton of inventory S/X cars in the US.
Having said that, S/X is less than 2% of the revenues for the company. At this point, if they ditch them, they may be better off...

Ditch them? I really hope not, the 3&Y are just horrible looking, everyman cars. Of course as a shareholder I'm pleased about thier success and long may it continue and expand, but I certainly don't want to have to drive around in one of them!

 

[EVMeister]

Ditch them? I really hope not, the 3&Y are just horrible looking, everyman cars. Of course as a shareholder I'm pleased about thier success and long may it continue and expand, but I certainly don't want to have to drive around in one of them!

I love the look of the Model S (X has also grown on me over the years) and would be upset if they went away as well. Though I wouldn't call the Model 3 or Y "horrible looking". Far more appealing to my eyes than most cars on the road.