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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Probably online and working too. There seems to be a new dot release every week, 11.3.6 going out to employers right now.
Clearly all the reports cannot be correct. Daimler, for example does not exist any more so zero would be correct. Otherwise they exclude Mercedes Benz. It’s hard to imagine there is anything accurate when there are errors so basic. MBUSA does not make quarterly reports quickly but here are the 2022 yearly results:I'm not sure if this US data is correct for Q1. We can probably add up Europe and China and do the math, I just haven't bothered to do it yet.
But if the numbers are correct, hard for me correlate Q1 2023 only being 7,000 more deliveries than Q1 2022 when you have Austin hitting 4k/week during Q1. Yes that 4k/week wasn't averaged over all of Q1. The average was likely something like 2,500/week, maybe 3,000/week. But even at 2,000/week, that should have equated to roughly 26,000 more deliveries in Q1 2023 verses Q1 2022 if Fremont production stayed the same. Now S/X are being shipped overseas so subtract out 7-8k and we're still left with 18k-19k.
Q1 US sales really were rather disappointing considering the combination of first quarter of the EV tax credits and the massive price cuts by Tesla.
The flip side is this could be Tesla's way of ending the wave and essentially not caring about whether a delivery happens in the last 5 days of the quarter or the first 5 days of the next quarter. But even still, the price cuts (though rather small on 3/Y) will surely be treated as imbalance between supply and demand.
I'm not turning bearish by any means and if we get a notice of Austin hitting 5k/week within the next couple of weeks, then you can chalk it up to the ramp of US production but this earnings call is going to be incredibly insightful into what exactly are the dynamics at play. I'm probably going to go into this earnings report with a more defensive position because if margins to compress significantly, it's gonna get ugly for the stock for a while
EDIT: Disregard....the Q1 2022 number can't possibly be correct.
Mercedes-Benz reports 21% growth in Q4; 2022 total sales of 350,949 vehicles +6.5% versus 2021
Mercedes-Benz USA (MBUSA) today reported 21% growth in sales of its luxury passenger car portfolio in Q4 2022 over the comparable quarter in 2021.
media.mbusa.com
It is tempting to believe favorable data. However when somebody purports to display full market data and excludes a major player all the rest becomes questionable.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
That's mostly already solved with self checkout.
philw1776
Member
Self checkout is a job that many customers do not want
Cult Member
Born on the 4th of July
Actually cashier is one of the best jobs at a grocery store. Mostly you can sit and chat we the customers. The most unwanted and worse payed job is restoring shelves. This can hurt your back extremely and would be ideal for a robot. But often this has to happen during opening hours. The safety aspect could be the main reason why robots are not used for this job today.
Too much trouble and it puts a person out of a job. Many retirees depend on this type of job for income.
Agreed... it's not for the faint of heart.
Similar to going into the Elon Twitter forums.
Proceed cautiously. Like walking into the pits of despair...
Most would agree that Tesla will be the subject of many business school case studies for years to come, as will TSLA be the subject of many investment case studies.
I would posit that TeslaMotorsClub.com itself may (and certainly should) be the subject of many psychology case studies as well, exploring the effects of no / some / heavy moderation on anonymous internet discussion forums. In particular, there might be enough overlap in topic / userbase / content, et al, between various sub-threads on TMC to begin drawing test-able conjectures on human behavior for future study. For myself, at least, TMC has allowed me to draw the actionable conclusion to personally only visit at least moderately-moderated anonymous internet forums / subthreads.
I have never owned a Model X. I have driven two pf them on long distance drives. One from San Francisco to Vancouver and back, the other From Milan to Croatia and other places. Both times there was only my spouse and myself with modest luggage.
I echo your points. The viability is so excellent that Model X is easier to maneuver in tight spaces than even the Model 3. I have posted a photo of me in a Model X in Bergamo passing through a very, very tight ancient wall passage with a few cm on either side. That really was not difficult, bizarrely, because of the visibility. The Falcon doors I found useful for the ease of entry and egress for delicate porcelain luggage, for example.
I have owned and or operated every Tesla model since the original Model S40 (upgraded to 60). Every one had strong positive points, and I've ended out owning three of those types.
None have ever matched the visibility and ease of driving tight spaces that the Model X affords. I never bought one because it is just too big for me. OTOH I currently have a Model S Plaid, so I'll plead to inconsistency when I face some astounding technological advance.
I hope Tesla makes at least one type smaller than the X that retains those amazing features. People who live in tight spaces would buy a smaller, much smaller, equally appealing vehicle.
Now that Tesla is approaching high volumes it seems time to offer at least a couple high specification small, mini X and Minivan types oriented towards urban buyers. Obviously the lower priced ones are evolving rapidly. The high spec variants have a lucrative market waiting.
I'd buy two!
I have a hard time trusting myself...
Yes, but this is the issue with society and economics that forces some retirees to work. Nothing to do with robots. Robots will replace many jobs weather we like it or not.
Nobody's crying over telephone switchboard operators from the past.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I find it's usually much faster and has no line. Plus the suggestion of using robots would also put people out of a job.
Was Li Quang previously the mayor of Shanghai and a main supporter of Tesla factory there? He and Elon probably have talked a few times before.
And he might be using now the success of Tesla in China as a proof of his pro-western business stance to attract more foreign investments.
FSDtester#1
Craves Electrolytes
Especially not fully dressed in front of a mirror
Relevant so far as Tesla energy is concerned-
www.cnbc.com
Wind and solar power generators wait in yearslong lines to put clean electricity on the grid, then face huge interconnection fees they can't afford
Interconnection applications and fees make it slow and expensive for clean energy providers to connect to the electrical grid.
Yeah he was previously high up in Shanghai politics.
I don’t remember if I posted here about it or just talked in private chat, but the Shanghai clique was elevated last year by Xi’s will. I don’t know how positive it is for tesla, but certainly seems like it’s a good thing for the business.
I was thinking about what how Tesla changed the way they discount.
Anyone has a good explanation on why Tesla decides to discount at the beginning of Q vs end of Q like they have always done? In fact Q1 is the quarter where they discounted beginning of Q and prices creeped up by end of Q, totally opposite of what they usually do. Q2 may be the same again.
Anyone has a good explanation on why Tesla decides to discount at the beginning of Q vs end of Q like they have always done? In fact Q1 is the quarter where they discounted beginning of Q and prices creeped up by end of Q, totally opposite of what they usually do. Q2 may be the same again.
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