Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Max Plaid]

As an investor since at least 2015, I have to agree with the posts on trading vs investing.
I've seen enough awesome tesla news that fails to move the stock AND enough random inconsequential nonsense that catapults it into the skies...to know that I cannot predict the monthly moves of the SP. I think I CAN predict the long term direction of the stock.
We have all spent a VERY long time discussing FSD and Robotaxis, until we have done very micro topic around it to absolute death. Its actually starting to happen RIGHT NOW with V12, and people are wondering why they should hold the stock?

I think Q2 will be better than expected, due to CT ramp, megapack ramp, FSD subscriptions, and a lack of crazy stuff like terrorism and houthi stuff. Tesla only needs one decent quarter for the talking heads to suddenly spin on a sixpence and start writing the exact opposite view.

Also you NEVER know whats imminent. Will Elon announce a multi billion dollar agreement with BYD to license FSD in the next 10 minutes? I doubt it, but I cannot rule it out either. Ditto FSD release in China, Ditto share buyback, Ditto Indian factory.

I hope Q2 improves, but the numbers we see to date are not looking good, especially as Tesla were supposed to have 50k vehicles 'in transit" for being sold, you would have expected them top show up, but doesn't appear to be the case

Everything right now is pointing to Q2 being lower than Q1, but still time to turn it around, but how they can achieve that, I don't know, and if Q2 does come in like Q1 then Elon's 2024 guidance will be looking pretty optimistic

Europe numbers: Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats

2023 for comparison: Tesla Europe Registration Stats - Google Drive

 

[thx1139]

Democrats are likely to lose control of the Senate but are more than likely to regain control of the House. Can't eliminate the IRA with an executive order. Biggest issue with the IRA is what qualifies as far as battery materials are concerned.

They've never finalized the rules (The legislation gave whatever administration that was in control wiggle room), and I'm sure Trump will change those rules to make it hard for any battery to qualify as far as tax credits are concerned.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788541185407033675

Trump promises oil execs to end EVs once and for all in exchange for $1 billion in campaign donations, Washington Post reports

The presidential candidate vowed to kneecap the already beleaguered EV sector in a meeting with oil execs.

fortune.com

 

[MP3Mike]

They and Ford each purchased Tesla equipment (and service contracts?) for re-branding around the same time.

Are you sure on that? I don't recall Ford ever announcing that they were installing DC fast chargers, nevertheless buying Tesla Superchargers. (There is an outfit in the UK that bought Tesla Superchargers and actually has installed them at one site already. Which, as far as I know, bp has yet to get any in the ground.)

 

[ggr]

Where might I find the best thread for the transition from TDA to Schwab?

Is there a checklist somewhere so I’m not overlooking anything?

Are multiple accounts (Traditional IRA, Roth, and taxed) accounts all showing up in Schwab? TIA

I'm not sure there is such a thread. I do have one piece of advice though. If you ask the "from" broker (TDA) to transfer your assets to the "to" broker (Schwab in your example) they will almost certainly want to charge you money and delay. So go to the "to" broker, open your account, and ask them to pull all the assets from the other account. It will be free and they'll keep pushing until it happens, because the "from" broker can't stop it.

 

[2daMoon]

Are you sure on that? I don't recall Ford ever announcing that they were installing DC fast chargers, nevertheless buying Tesla Superchargers. (There is an outfit in the UK that bought Tesla Superchargers and actually has installed them at one site already. Which, as far as I know, bp has yet to get any in the ground.)

You may be right. I just had pictures in my mind of both the BP and Ford logos on Superchargers.

Nothing turns up in a search. It might have been some graphic art along with speculation after the Ford NACS announcement.

 

[growler23]

FSD is such a crazy bet-the-company moment that's really under appreciated or, at least, isn't said out loud enough.

It's not just about cars, its about the robotics and services its going to enable and deliver not only so much operating expense savings (i.e. robotics) and huge profit margins (i.e. software services). Though, for it to happen, you have to sink in just a spaceships amount of money into training + compute to get there.

I've been watching more of the Brighter with Herbert Youtube videos lately. A lot of discussion about how exciting this moment is.
I think some of us, including myself these last few years, saw the world in 2030 as about the same as now, but with a ton more EVs and enough charging around to make it convenient. EV's would swap right in for gasmobiles and the world as we know it would run about the same, albeit way cleaner / less carbon / less JiffyLubes (oil change businesses).
I think what Tesla envisions is slowly starting to take shape ... and it looks really rather different from that. This very difference in future vision is the source of our unease these days, what with big changes in car announcements, factory announcements, layoffs...
But what if: what Tesla envisions for the world in 2030 is as different from the world of 2024 as Cybertruck is different from an F-150 diesel? And what if a number of nonsensically optimistic early bets (car as data collector, Dojo training tile development, energy efficient inference chip, Supercharger network, Megapacks, FSD, bots) are all converging at a point to radically reshape the world as we know it?
In short, the future may be so bright, gotta wear

 

[UkNorthampton]

Elon doesn't want Tesla to run convenience stores, restaurants, maintain toilets etc.

Even franchise is a hassle, direct employment a nightmare.

EV charging has greater dwell time, more opportunity for shopping, food etc. Proper meals instead of fast food, bigger shopping and more bought.

BP Pulse North America previously announced they were buying $100 million of Tesla V4+ chargers.

BP Pulse, franchisees and others can handle the retail, BP can add Tesla V4 chargers to their existing locations, new Gigahubs and thus supercharging the Supercharger rollout.

We end up with the Norwegian problem in West Oslo. Hard to find petrol stations as everything moves to EV charging over time (more money from EV customer retail purchases)

 

[Zero CO2]

This is not how the CT will play out. It will remain a niche vehicle, not an F-150-seller. By the time the problems with political tribalism are finally overcome by EVs and the march of history, and BEV become the dominant form of pickups, the CT will have been replaced or augmented by something in the Tesla lineup with broader appeal, if only a less-polarizing design and normal bodywork and glass.

i think people are still underestimating the CT as more people see it there understanding increases and at some point they will realize it is the future ... box shaped pickups will be viewed as antiquated ... i will let you know soon picking up mine on 5/17 ...

 

[Stretch2727]

I'm ont sure there is such a thread. I do have one piece of advice though. If you ask the "from" broker (TDA) to transfer your assets to the "to" broker (Schwab in your example) they will almost certainly want to charge you money and delay. So go to the "to" broker, open your account, and ask them to pull all the assets from the other account. It will be free and they'll keep pushing until it happens, because the "from" broker can't stop it.

This is different. Schwab bought TD Ameritrade a while back and the accounts are being transferred to Schwab. I had one account move last September, I understand the last transition of accounts is this weekend. I have 2 more moving this weekend.

My advice is to set up a Schwab login, which you can do before the transfer. There is a preview of the TD accounts transferring in the Schwab account. Last move went fine for me other than some confusing login issues as you needed to have a login for each account for TD, but under Schwab there is just one login for all accounts.

TD Ameritrade & Charles Schwab: What to Know | TD Ameritrade

TD Ameritrade & Charles Schwab are working together to build an integrated, best-in-class investing and trading experience.

www.tdameritrade.com

 

[Zero CO2]

I said it before and I'll say it again. A bullet-proof pickup truck is the most desirable American vehicle you could possibly make.

As long as Tesla commits to ramping and driving down the cost, the CT will destroy F-150, Silverado, and Ram.

SUV also ... my use case is SUV and it meets my case with tonneau cover

 

[ggr]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788541185407033675

Trump promises oil execs to end EVs once and for all in exchange for $1 billion in campaign donations, Washington Post reports

The presidential candidate vowed to kneecap the already beleaguered EV sector in a meeting with oil execs.

fortune.com

It seems to me that this is very close to "soliciting a bribe".

 

[ggr]

This is different. Schwab bought TD Ameritrade a while back and the accounts are being transferred to Schwab. I had one account move last September, I understand the last transition of accounts is this weekend. I have 2 more moving this weekend.

My advice is to set up a Schwab login, which you can do before the transfer. There is a preview of the TD accounts transferring in the Schwab account. Last move went fine for me other than some confusing login issues as you needed to have a login for each account for TD, but under Schwab there is just one login for all accounts.

TD Ameritrade & Charles Schwab: What to Know | TD Ameritrade

TD Ameritrade & Charles Schwab are working together to build an integrated, best-in-class investing and trading experience.

www.tdameritrade.com

Ah, OK. I don't use either, didn't realize they are the same company. Same situation with ETrade and Morgan Stanley now... I have accounts with both, but got the same voting emails from them

 

[sunwarriors]

What's a realistic upside from here for TSLA?

My hunch is we stay mostly flat for 2024, finally beat our ATH of $415 in late 2025, and begin to skyrocket in 2026 once RT's are driving and earning and RT production is well underway. Somewhere around 2027 or 2028 Optimus production and sales will likely start, just doing basic work at first but bringing in revenues nonetheless. Once that starts TSLA should easily climb over $1000 per share, maybe by like 2029/2030? And that is with conservative numbers, the revenue potential of both RT's and Optimus ramping at the same time is ludicrous. My opinion is Tesla will keep margins low on both of them in order to aggressively increase adoption and sales. Still, even with aggressively reducing margins, both RT's and Optimus are immense revenue streams. Tesla today is just a startup compared to where it is headed for a few years from now, unless things go completely off the rails.

The timing of it is completely unpredictable, but this stuff is happening, so trying to "time the market" on this is like playing in a bonfire. There likely won't be any magical "now is the time to buy" moment, it will probably happen gradually and before anyone knows it TSLA is well over $1000/share.

I'm not saying anyone should time the market so if you/anyone believes this will be a massive game changer, then holding makes sense.

Obviously, no one knows what's the realistic upside. Cathie Wood thinks Tesla ca be worth $2000/share (or $4000 super bullish). Your numbers of $415 -> $1.3 trillion, $1000 -> $2.6 trillion, $2000 -> $5 trillion.

Tesla is having trouble simply due to the law of large numbers. Folks here like to tout 2019, but the stock was only $13-$20 bucks and market cap was $10 billion. That is not now.


I clearly don't think it will be that big though, but I'm a random person on here far less well off than the lot of you. My concern still stems from whether FSD/RT is really that big of a deal. A RT to me, is simply a taxi that, in and by itself, just takes you from point A to point B. It doesn't matter (IMO) to the consumer if that's a poorly paid/no benefits Uber driver or a RT. That's all. Taxi's only work in certain heavy dense/low parking areas with poor public transportation. This is again, heavily my belief and I feel the RT will go the way of the Segway when, and if even Tesla figures it out. The Segway was initially touted as revolutionary, would change humankind/etc (if folks remember that), but didn't ever amount to much.


I feel the normal Tesla EV (or any EV) is a bigger game changer for people/folks since not having to ever get gas, charge for free on solar, are far bigger life benefits than something I feel is just a Taxi. FSD is "nice" if it works, but I don't think people would pay a ton for it (some folks here state $299/month) when the majority of people are simply poor/stretched thin (maybe too many rich folks here really knows how us poor folks think). Governments can pay Tesla for RT vouchers, but I doubt governments will do this at a large enough scale to matter and it kills their public transport plans.

 

[cab]

Your post needs more love. I've been processing this possibility ever since you posted, thanks.

One question I'm still pondering was whether the ideal Charging Hub isn't a different design and layout, and including the Robotaxi battery type in terms of charging rate and voltages. It's a whole new use case and old design may no longer apply. First off, the slab layout could be useless in favor of a more drive-through layout. Need some IEs on this one. The charging/cleaning will be part of the Factory.

And to answer my own question on taxes, the Fed might find it more challenging to tax a private company. So the Charging Hubs could be self funded, private RT use only, maybe new tech or batteries, different design for max throughput, uninhibited by slow-charging vehicles.

I think Elon said on the last call that Tesla would own and operate the RoboTaxi network. I assume the factory would make the cars and these "operational hubs" would handle all day-to-day operations of the cars. Your comments on charging are probably right on the money - maybe this is where we see wireless charging so the cars can literally park themselves over those charge pads and charge w/o human intervention. The Optimus robots will, of course, handle cleaning the inside of the cars.

 

[sunwarriors]

not sure it is a good thing to let oil interests run SuC network .. will the SuC uptime be compromised ? think VW Electrify America

I thought about this when someone posted that $1 billion SuC buy. $1 billion is nothing to a company like BP (or any large oil/gas company).

BP had like $213 billion in revenue in a year alone (2023) and profits of $25 billion? What's to stop them to buy them, shut them all down (other than the government not letting them?) and tell people to go buy gas cars again?

If a Republican is in office, I don't think it'd be a shock with what we've seen in TX/FL on how laws can change. Trump also said he wanted to gut the IRA for EVs if elected.

 

[advocate8]

i think people are still underestimating the CT as more people see it there understanding increases and at some point they will realize it is the future ... box shaped pickups will be viewed as antiquated ... i will let you know soon picking up mine on 5/17 ...

It’s possible. Pickup designed has evolved, albeit slowly, and with major setbacks like the dodge ram. Bot honestly, vehicle design needs to be more rounded and aero and the Darwinian nature of range will dictate movement toward something softer. It’s also extremely unlikely stainless is going to catch on in a big way. It’s neither practical in terms of repair and maintenance or expense. Elon def forced some advances that have brought it into a more affordable and practical realm for manufacturing, but conventional materials are always going to be cheaper and less costly to repair.

I don’t think Tesla or the car repair industry have come to terms yet with the S, X, Y or 3 and CT will be trickier. The cost and length of time it takes to repair even the most basic accident damage to a Y is just flat BS. 2 months and $16K for a minor front ender with an almost identical amount of damage that six months earlier cost $900 plus 10 hours of my labor on a Honda Fit.

 

[sunwarriors]

I hope Q2 improves, but the numbers we see to date are not looking good, especially as Tesla were supposed to have 50k vehicles 'in transit" for being sold, you would have expected them top show up, but doesn't appear to be the case

Everything right now is pointing to Q2 being lower than Q1, but still time to turn it around, but how they can achieve that, I don't know, and if Q2 does come in like Q1 then Elon's 2024 guidance will be looking pretty optimistic

Europe numbers: Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats

2023 for comparison: Tesla Europe Registration Stats - Google Drive

April was pretty bad across the board. They'd need large numbers in May/June to make up the shortfall if they hope to have a good Q2. 1/3 of the quarter is already over.

 

[Mengy]

I feel the normal Tesla EV (or any EV) is a bigger game changer for people/folks since not having to ever get gas, charge for free on solar, are far bigger life benefits than something I feel is just a Taxi. FSD is "nice" if it works, but I don't think people would pay a ton for it (some folks here state $299/month) when the majority of people are simply poor/stretched thin (maybe too many rich folks here really knows how us poor folks think). Governments can pay Tesla for RT vouchers, but I doubt governments will do this at a large enough scale to matter and it kills their public transport plans.

This is common, most people have a hard time comprehending the disruptive impact autonomy will have on the world. To be short, you are thinking too small.

FSD isn't just about robotic taxis, its about TaaS (Transportation as a Service). People using robotaxis for ALL mobility, not just what we today think of as "taxis". The economics of robotaxis coupled with EV's and smartphone apps will enable most people to use RT's full time rather than own a car themselves, because eventually it will be cheaper for the consumer to do so.

Doesn't matter if you just use the RT to commute to work every day, or use the RT to travel cross country, financially it should one day be cheaper to do so rather than own and drive your own car. And sure some of us old coots who grew up owning cars will never make the shift, but you can bet the young will do it instantly if its cheaper and more convenient.

Lots of math has been done on this by lots of analysts and its nearly inevitable once autonomy is solved thanks to the EV. The economics of it virtually guarantee it.

Now whether Tesla is the one to corner this massive new market first is unknown, but seeing how great FSD v12.3 is and how fast its now improving, coupled with the RT being revealed in three months and entering production next year, well.....

 

[willow_hiller]

Elon doesn't want Tesla to run convenience stores, restaurants, maintain toilets etc.

Even franchise is a hassle, direct employment a nightmare.

I think this is largely what's happening with Tesla's residential energy; especially Solar Roof. Commercial installations are still worth doing first-party, but fighting with local governments and HOAs over permits and paint must be an absolute nightmare.

 

[2daMoon]

FSD is "nice" if it works, but I don't think people would pay a ton for it (some folks here state $299/month) when the majority of people are simply poor/stretched thin (maybe too many rich folks here really knows how us poor folks think).

I see the only way grand FSD adoption works is if a reduction in insurance costs offsets the cost of an FSD subscription. Otherwise, I agree that people will vote with their wallets and those with less in the wallet won't see the advantage.

A person will have their priorities. That's and money after all.

Taking a Robotaxi instead of owning a car could be an easy choice for many people if it is convenient for their needs. And, if that leaves more beer and bacon money in their wallet it will be a slam-dunk.