Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

If an hour is too long to watch Brighter with Herbert interview of Jeff Lutz, consider jumping in at 50:00 for the following slide, or just watch the last 6 mins for the wrap up.
Lots of reasons to feel good about margins staying healthy, or at least recovering from any hit.

Tesla's Cost Advantage From an Expert | Brighter with Jeff Lutz

Outline:1. @Tesla 2019 MSRPs vs Today2. What's in COGS (overview)?3. What's #Tesla told us about COGS? 4. 'COVID economies' - Dramatic Impact on COGS5. Reces...

www.youtube.com

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Tesla Cybertruck castings spotted outside Giga Texas [Video]

The last time we got an update on Cybertruck production, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said production should begin later this summer. Just a few months away from that timeline and Tesla is now producing and [...]

driveteslacanada.ca

TLDR: Cybertruck castings piling up in advance of production start.

Can't wait for my Cyber. Go Tesla!

 

[GhostSkater]

Tesla Cybertruck castings spotted outside Giga Texas [Video]

The last time we got an update on Cybertruck production, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said production should begin later this summer. Just a few months away from that timeline and Tesla is now producing and [...]

driveteslacanada.ca

TLDR: Cybertruck castings piling up in advance of production start.

Can't wait for my Cyber. Go Tesla!

Those are not Cybertruck castings

They are two Model Y front castings stacked

 

[bkp_duke]

Those are not Cybertruck castings

They are two Model Y front castings stacked

Don't think so. Those are much larger than either the front or rear Model Y castings. They are also not the right shape.

 

[mongo]

Nothing funny about it- they're both sedans, so same MSRP limit.

One gets it because the batteries come from Nevada, the other gets half because the batteries come from China (it's slightly more complex than that, sourcing of the materials and such, but that's the short version)

Nevada or Japan.
United States and Japan Sign Critical Minerals Agreement

 

[AndrewZ]

Those are not Cybertruck castings

They are two Model Y front castings stacked

Maybe the CT will be made from two stacked Model Y front castings, imagine the cost efficiency!

 

[WattsHappening]

If an hour is too long to watch Brighter with Herbert interview of Jeff Lutz, consider jumping in at 50:00 for the following slide, or just watch the last 6 mins for the wrap up.
Lots of reasons to feel good about margins staying healthy, or at least recovering from any hit.

View attachment 929338

Tesla's Cost Advantage From an Expert | Brighter with Jeff Lutz

Outline:1. @Tesla 2019 MSRPs vs Today2. What's in COGS (overview)?3. What's #Tesla told us about COGS? 4. 'COVID economies' - Dramatic Impact on COGS5. Reces...

www.youtube.com

I just finished watching this episode.

Jeff Lutz is a great contributor to the TSLA community. As @Carl Raymond mentions, he does a great job in this video of explaining what's happening with COGS and margins. Some things he glossed over (like a question about when and how material he expects input cost decreases to impact gross margins), probably because he doesn't know and doesn't want to hype things of which he is not sure.

My take-away is that Tesla has all the data (input costs, demand curves and the price elasticity of demand, logistics, utilization costs, impact of price changes versus impact of advertising, etc.) and know what they are doing. Will they make mistakes? Of course they will. But I have never seen a company learn so much, iterate so quickly and improve on their execution as well as Tesla. What gives some angst (and becomes fodder for FUD) is that Tesla thinks outside the box and does things so differently than anyone else - first principles thinking versus reasoning by analogy. Eschewing advertising, constant price changes, setting and communicating ridiculously high goals even if it means sometimes falling short, are all practices that are new and unique to the industry. I have little doubt that in time, these practices will pay off. Just like other new practices that Tesla implemented has paid off handsomely. Think gigafactories, direct sales model, castings, setting up Shanghai GF, vertical integration, structural battery packs, etc.

I will continue to trust them to make the right choices unless and until they prove otherwise.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Stretch2727, thank you very much for this link.

I conducted an analysis and came to the conclusion, that in Q2 about 75 % of all tax credits will be spoken for cars from Tesla. …

Great post. This was my takeaway, and for some reason I find this hilarious in a “fate loves irony” kind of way (remembering the Tesla exclusion, i.e. union, strategies that were floated months ago).

 

[Prunesquallor]

Thank you this is super interesting - and - aggravating - so why is a Performance Model 3 getting full tax credit but a Model 3 RWD only gets half.

Funny also that both have an MSRP limit of 55k.

Battery sourcing.

 

[wipster]

Thx, y’all! Ever so often, I imagine what my life would be without you all - no Tesla Tequila, no SpaceX starship torch on order, no mutual support for HODL-ing in spite of MMDs - and my life would be so less extra - thx for being there, or rather here, or wherever the hell u r.

And just wait until the US gets GigaBier... now that's what I call a capital gain!

 

[UncaNed]

Tesla Cybertruck castings spotted outside Giga Texas [Video]

The last time we got an update on Cybertruck production, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said production should begin later this summer. Just a few months away from that timeline and Tesla is now producing and [...]

driveteslacanada.ca

TLDR: Cybertruck castings piling up in advance of production start.

Can't wait for my Cyber. Go Tesla!

Happy there's progress, can't wait to get my Cybertruck.

What do these castings actually DO on the Cybertruck? On other Tesla models, they (and eventually the battery packs) are structural, right?

But that isn't needed on the Cybertruck because according to Elon the folded stainless monocoque is the structure instead, so do the castings basically just serve as mounting points for the other parts like suspension and drive train components?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Thx, y’all! Ever so often, I imagine what my life would be without you all - no Tesla Tequila, no SpaceX starship torch on order, no mutual support for HODL-ing in spite of MMDs - and my life would be so less extra - thx for being there, or rather here, or wherever the hell u r.

Me:

 

[Knightshade]

Nevada or Japan.
United States and Japan Sign Critical Minerals Agreement

Not sure what you mean here? AFAIK Tesla does not get any 3 or Y batteries from Japan (there'd been rumors of Pana making 2170s in japan for years but to my knowledge this never happened). They get S/X 18650 cells from there but those are both above the price cap so no credits for em.

They COULD, but don't... they could get em from lots of other trade-favored nations too, just most of em don't do much battery production.

 

[mongo]

Not sure what you mean here? AFAIK Tesla does not get any 3 or Y batteries from Japan (there'd been rumors of Pana making 2170s in japan for years but to my knowledge this never happened). They get S/X 18650 cells from there but those are both above the price cap so no credits for em.

They COULD, but don't... they could get em from lots of other trade-favored nations too, just most of em don't do much battery production.

It was just a data point the cell from Panasonic in Japan would also qualify (for clean vehicle, not the manufacturing credit).
The 4680 cells from the lines Panasonic are spooling up might be imported for Cybertruck. Would be nice if the X was under $80k though...
Tesla is tapping partners from Asia to boost its 4680 battery ramp: report

 

[AudubonB]

Next time you're on vacation.

 

[Mengy]

One strategy that I'm currently employing is selling some stock (all around the $200 share price cost basis area so won't be hit by taxes from this) and buying the equivalent number of Dec 2025 LEAPS. So sell 500 shares and then by 5 of the LEAPS. If the margins are great, well I have the upside protection from those LEAPS. If the stock tumbles because of weak margins, especially if the margins are due to something I feel confident will ease throughout the year, I'll just wait for the stock to sell off for a bit and use the excess cash on hand to buy stock outright.

I'm a simple man, I just buy shares in good solid growing companies and hold them long for many, many years.

 

[bkp_duke]

It was just a data point the cell from Panasonic in Japan would also qualify (for clean vehicle, not the manufacturing credit).
The 4680 cells from the lines Panasonic are spooling up might be imported for Cybertruck. Would be nice if the X was under $80k though...
Tesla is tapping partners from Asia to boost its 4680 battery ramp: report

An X under 80K would be such a BOSS move by Tesla right now . . .

 

[CyberDutchie]

Yeah, stuff like that just tempers expectations and who wants that?

Well, as a bull we should temper expectations about short term (this quarter) but while keeping the long term growth expectations in tact. Otherwise you’re just a flip-flopper and lose any credibility with the audience.

I never thought of Ross as a strong advocate for Tesla. He is a loud mouth, who loves the media attention which helps his business. He was very disappointing next to Gordo the clown Johnson in a bull vs bear episode not long ago.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm a simple man, I just buy shares in good solid growing companies and hold them long for many, many years.

I probably should have mentioned I'm buying Dec 2025 LEAPS at a strike price around/slightly below the current share price.

If you're cash flow positive on a monthly basis, especially if you're are very cash positive on a monthly basis, or if you have a material amount of money that you're getting in the future from any various reason, the strategy of selling shares at that at are a near break even cost basis is actually a great way of leveraging while also protecting your cash.

If the stock goes up after you execute the strategy, you have the cash + monthly cash you bring in and/or the upcoming large sum of cash to exercise the LEAPS when their strike date is due in 2 and a half years.

If the stock goes down in the short term, take the cash you just freed up and buy outright shares.

Of course if you're not monthly cash flow positive and/or do not have any big upcoming sum of money coming your way, this strategy as obvious risk.

 

[MC3OZ]

According to Supercharge.info, Currently 4993 Supercharger stations in the world, we should reach 5,000 stations sometime in the next day or 2.
But none of the new stations will be in Alaska
Or north of Gympie QLD, where I want them