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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
That reminds me . . . @MrMoo you owe me one TSLA share. I won the bet we made in this thread that AGM would remain > 18%.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
Put your money where your mouth is. I'll bet you a TSLA share that margins didn't drop by even 35%, much less your predicted 67%. So to clarify, you want to do a 1 Tesla share bet that Q1 2023 auto margins went from Q3 28% down to 18% or above? How would we even pay that out ? lol
teslamotorsclub.com
I'll find a charity that you can donate the cash equivalent to.
I am calculating the same. 18.3% GM which is lower than Zach's Q1 estimate. That's 1.7% shortfall over guidance, and translates to $800 in ASP shortfall.
I suppose, the volume guidance for the rest of the year should go up, now that the weakest qtr is behind us. Just seasonally estimating rest of the Qs from Q1 and no organic growth should get us to the guided 1.8 million deliveries. These new round of cuts should arguably give the confidence to raise the target. Also, looking forward to more guidance on storage now that its starting to show gang buster growth and they specifically called out the Lathrop and Shanghai capex.
Taxes line didnt go down as much as expected from the IRA manufacturer credits. Perhaps Pana is keeping them and passing on the lower COGS to Tesla?
Finally, the FCF took a massive hit, and was sort of expected because of the continued increase in Days on hand inventory. Q1 '23 was 15 days compared to 3 days in Q1 '22.
Slight ramp up in capex investments. Over 2B in a qtr I think is a first.
Overall earnings call should be pretty positive, though quite a bit depends on their answer on Auto GM trends, even as they say dont focus on it. If they guide to ~20% after the latest cuts, that would surely be a big one.
According to Rob Maurer:
ASP (ex credits, ex lease vehicles): $47,134 (vs $52,081 a year ago & $51,056 last quarter)
average COGS: $38,505 (vs $36,640 a year ago & $39,561 last quarter)
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With the trailing 12 month Net income & EBITDA lines falling into a downtrend (despite strong unit growth), I’m not surprised the stock price has fallen in after hours trade given the market generally focuses on expected near term performance & margins (which is going to be negative y-o-y earnings given the very tough year ago compares, and Tesla ruthlessness for unit growth at the expense of margins)
I would say the next 6 months will present some good opportunities to build positions for those with the belief that this short term period of declining profits/margins will mask long term gigantic profits from the market position & future product roadmap that Tesla is rapidly growing.
For those that feel like they missed the chance to get into TSLA before the big profits were made in the massive run up of 2020 - the next 6 months maybe your time to act.
ASP (ex credits, ex lease vehicles): $47,134 (vs $52,081 a year ago & $51,056 last quarter)
average COGS: $38,505 (vs $36,640 a year ago & $39,561 last quarter)
==========
With the trailing 12 month Net income & EBITDA lines falling into a downtrend (despite strong unit growth), I’m not surprised the stock price has fallen in after hours trade given the market generally focuses on expected near term performance & margins (which is going to be negative y-o-y earnings given the very tough year ago compares, and Tesla ruthlessness for unit growth at the expense of margins)
I would say the next 6 months will present some good opportunities to build positions for those with the belief that this short term period of declining profits/margins will mask long term gigantic profits from the market position & future product roadmap that Tesla is rapidly growing.
For those that feel like they missed the chance to get into TSLA before the big profits were made in the massive run up of 2020 - the next 6 months maybe your time to act.
Energy generation and storage revenue up 148% yoy, but storage MWh deployed up 360% yoy. Is this the effect of long acceptance cycles between delivery and invoicing? If so, this bodes well for storage revenue growth.
Edit: storage MWh deployed was up 58% qoq!
Edit: storage MWh deployed was up 58% qoq!
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Still digesting these price drops.
Tesla adding the MY AWD to the site then dropping prices makes me more confident about 4680 supply. Anxious to hear if there is any progress on that front.
Tesla adding the MY AWD to the site then dropping prices makes me more confident about 4680 supply. Anxious to hear if there is any progress on that front.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Probably. The customers are industrials and commercial. They can have different payment terms anywhere from Net 15 to Net 60. And probably contract terms that payment clock doesn't start till operational status is cleared by whatever regulatory body (utility, local authorities, etc.). So Tesla can mark it is as "deployed" in the quarterly report, but hasn't been paid.
yes, the interconnection queues are a huge pain. the revenue might take a while to be recognized. Meanwhile this deployed stuff counts as inventory increase, and extends the cash conversion cycle.
The thread below has some hard numbers, and I hope Tesla has been smart enough to sidestep the projects with most uncertainty. A mitigating factor is - Batteries are flexible enough to be deployed wherever there is interconnection capacity, unlike large generation units that cannot be sited wherever one wants them.
Not that I’m saying very many of my observations are insightful, just that the responses I get are sometimes not what I expected.
The average revenue per MWh deployed has collapsed. I guess they have significantly lowered that with the larger Megapacks accounting for most of the deployed amount.
He probably didn't account for 7 price cuts in 3 months from Elon.
Isn't the revenue recognition being done in a weird delayed manner? I wonder if the cost of revenue are also recognized in such fashion or is it front loaded.Got the Energy ramp I've been waiting for......but without the material increase in margin/profit
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Disagree. You have very VERY different payment terms from autos and even residential energy.
The GOP congress has released a Debt-Ceiling bill that includes rolling back IRA credits.
The IRA tax credits are, as some here expected, a political football to be used as a negotiating chip in the looming debt ceiling battle.
The IRA tax credits are, as some here expected, a political football to be used as a negotiating chip in the looming debt ceiling battle.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Informative. But I don't see any IRA credits recognized in today's financial report.
I’m by no means an expert and happy to be corrected, but would not GAAP reporting rules require Tesla to allocate costs alongside any delayed payment terms?
Now we know why Uncle Leo didn’t get his share buyback
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
We won't know this until the 10-Q is released, but we have seen delayed revenue listings for large energy deployments in the past. They have generally been overlooked because they were TEENY TINY compared to everything automotive. A rounding error. They are no longer a rounding error.
details arent out yet as far as I know, but likely would include the consumer facing credits as well
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