Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[30seconds]

Worst part of todays call for me is that these results didn’t seem to be a one time event.

Between Elon talking about selling cars at no profit and Zach not explaining how they are getting margins back to the mid 20s in the next quarter or two I didn’t get much hope for improved profitability vs 2022.

Selling more things for the same total profit is not a growth story that get me excited.

 

[MP3Mike]

IIRC all this is based on OEMs self-reporting if they qualify- guess Rivian and VW were late with the paperwork.

Yep, I think VW said that they were late submitting it because they didn't have the necessary documentation from their supplier to support their claim that the ID.4 made in the US would qualify.

 

[MartinAustin]

Correct me if I'm wrong... not a single question or comment on the Mexico factory or the cheaper car.

No-one here mentioned it either.

Is it all a dream I had?

 

[Krugerrand]

Not one question about IRA. Would have been nice to hear some thoughts about it.

I think it’s safe to assume Tesla will navigate this credit the same way as the last - to the greatest benefit of both Tesla and the customer.

Come on people. Nothing new is going on here. Everything is literally rinse and repeat. Why are we asking the same questions year after year, quarter after quarter?

Tesla wants to sell as many cars as they can at a price that allows them to expand as fast as they can ‘safely’ (to keep the business financially healthy). That’s it. The whole enchilada.

Tesla will simply continue doing what they do, lower costs, improve efficiencies, pass those savings onto customers while trying to keep wait times for cars in a comfortable range. Not rocket science.

 

[Krugerrand]

Worst part of todays call for me is that these results didn’t seem to be a one time event.

Between Elon talking about selling cars at no profit and Zach not explaining how they are getting margins back to the mid 20s in the next quarter or two I didn’t get much hope for improved profitability vs 2022.

Selling more things for the same total profit is not a growth story that get me excited.

Sorry you didn’t understand the plan moving forward. Seemed super clear to me. Still on track for world domination. Don’t understand why that’s not exciting. Tesla is literally bleeding OEMs to death like an insatiable vampire.

 

[AndrewZ]

Correct me if I'm wrong... not a single question or comment on the Mexico factory or the cheaper car.

No-one here mentioned it either.

Is it all a dream I had?

I think they call that a Tijuana Sunrise

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yep, I think VW said that they were late submitting it because they didn't have the necessary documentation from their supplier to support their claim that the ID.4 made in the US would qualify.

How do they qualify for the full credit though? Pretty sure the battery in those are not from North America

 

[InDaClub]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648815783907139588

 

[wipster]

Seriously, what a disappointment in the earnings call. Zero clarity on this.

At least they all sounded like they were having a good time!

Was a bit disappointed that the CyberTruck handoff will be late in Q3, but that's the most concrete date I've heard so far... and from Elon at that.

 

[Singuy]

Worst part of todays call for me is that these results didn’t seem to be a one time event.

Between Elon talking about selling cars at no profit and Zach not explaining how they are getting margins back to the mid 20s in the next quarter or two I didn’t get much hope for improved profitability vs 2022.

Selling more things for the same total profit is not a growth story that get me excited.

I think Elon is getting WAY too cocky with FSD, which is fine but they need to frame this better.

Show us insurance, FSD subscription, take rate, and charging revenue before planning on doing the printer/ink model.

At the end of the day, the team will continue to drive down cost, will continue to improve on gross margins if demand stays intact, and will continue to grow post sale items to improve operating margins. It just seems like all the questions were the same from Q4 conference call about margins and the team took a different approach...which is the "we are working on them but if macro collapses we have x, y and z to fall back on" They just didn't provide analysts with any meaningful metrics to go by.

Anyways, call was pretty disappointing HOWEVER it is one of the most conservative sounding calls I have heard by the team. It seems like they were guiding for WW3 so they can beat expectations.

 

[AndrewZ]

How do they qualify for the full credit though? Pretty sure the battery in those are not from North America

I'm amazed any vehicles qualify for the full credits at full production, the interpretation and implementation seem pretty forgiving.

Wouldn't be surprised if there's quite a bit of credence to the idea of it being used as a political tool

 

[GOVA]

Keep downvoting me haters, first thing Rob said after the call was “Tesla basically said we’re not giving guidance about margins anymore or care about them.”

Followed by “until FSD is actually happening Wall Street isn’t going to believe Elon and it’s going to be ugly.”

Followed by “I’m surprised the stock price is let down more now.”

I mean, I guess it’s those who hold call options who are downvoting me for telling the truth. Disaster of a call, but not mad, more amused! I’m excited for the destruction of competitors over the next two years due to Teslas prices.

I am not downvoting you.

I am just not reading your posts.

 

[Krugerrand]

Correct me if I'm wrong... not a single question or comment on the Mexico factory or the cheaper car.

No-one here mentioned it either.

Is it all a dream I had?

Brief mention of the cheaper car, but just in passing. They’d not have answered any questions about it anyway, just as they wouldn’t talk about CT other than already known info.

ERs are to show the current financial strength of the company. This company is positioned like no other. All the WS, analysts, and media crap have caused Tesla to hold even more cards closer to the chest. I don’t blame them. I’d be revealing just what I had to by law.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Worst part of todays call for me is that these results didn’t seem to be a one time event.

Between Elon talking about selling cars at no profit and Zach not explaining how they are getting margins back to the mid 20s in the next quarter or two I didn’t get much hope for improved profitability vs 2022.

Selling more things for the same total profit is not a growth story that get me excited.

You can pretty much bank on the share price not doing anything for the remainder of 2023. This earnings call pretty much cemented that. Seems be quite a delay between cost of commodities coming down and Tesla recognizing the lower cost of goods. Based on how they’re treating currency FX’s, thats going to be headwind for most of this year.

Btw I do fully agree with their assessment of the Feds impact on demand and that they’re adjusting in real-time whereas legacy auto isn’t. Legacy auto is filling dealership lots right now. Those dealership lots will be filling up the longer rates stay this high. Legacy auto in for a ride awakening in a few months

 

[Thekiwi]

Above graph doesn’t have solar install revenue separated out from the storage revenue, but since solar grew year over year, then that would only make the above graph of rev per deployed MWh of storage show an even bigger drop if solar revenue was removed.

Elon & Zach said they hope for energy to get into 20%+ margins “Aspirationally” at some point. Currently at 11%.

 

[Nathan]

There is no other strategy. Where have you been? This is the path. You don’t like the path, then get off it.

About time people realized this isn’t going to go in any sort of traditional way; FSD or bust. How many times do you need to be told that before you’ll accept it as the reality?

FSD or bust
FSD or bust
FSD or bust
FSD or bust
FSD or bust
FSD or bust
FSD or bust

Gosh some people are slow learners

I think it’s safe to assume Tesla will navigate this credit the same way as the last - to the greatest benefit of both Tesla and the customer.

Come on people. Nothing new is going on here. Everything is literally rinse and repeat. Why are we asking the same questions year after year, quarter after quarter?

Tesla wants to sell as many cars as they can at a price that allows them to expand as fast as they can ‘safely’ (to keep the business financially healthy). That’s it. The whole enchilada.

Tesla will simply continue doing what they do, lower costs, improve efficiencies, pass those savings onto customers while trying to keep wait times for cars in a comfortable range. Not rocket science.

Agree with what you are saying but at the risk of causing a mini-storm and raising the hair on your back . I'm still convinced that Elon's purchase of Twitter and foray into politics has turned off quite a few potential buyers. No way to prove it obviously but it was always my instinctual read and I wouldn't be surprised if its definitely part of the short term problem .

 

[Ogre]

Correct me if I'm wrong... not a single question or comment on the Mexico factory or the cheaper car.

No-one here mentioned it either.

Is it all a dream I had?

I had a similar dream, but in my dream all the interesting bits in Mexico didn’t start until 2024.

 

[MP3Mike]

How do they qualify for the full credit though? Pretty sure the battery in those are not from North America

For the ID.4s made in the US the batteries are made in Georgia: https://www.carsdirect.com/automoti.../volkswagen-id-4-sk-vs-lg-batteries-explained

Both SK and LG are both South Korean companies, but both produce batteries for the ID.4 at a facility in Georgia.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

No. Just no.

It was something CLEARLY laid out when purchase was made (and still is) that is it NOT feature complete. That many buyers are buying in at a lower price point that is it NOT feature completed. And that it won't roll over to another car.

I knew, very VERY well, what I was getting when I bought a car with FSD.

Everyone, including you and Elon, had the expectation it would be feature complete much sooner, but let's move on from that.

Regardless of what's in the fine print, please tell me why you don't think Tesla should grandfather FSD for the early adopters. After all, Tesla is loaded with money now and the early adopters were supporting the mission at a time when it was touch & go for Tesla. Tesla treats early supporters like the Giving Tree. For crying out loud, first day reservation holders never even got the special mystery gift.

 

[Tommy O]

Keep downvoting me haters

You have a peculiar habit of attacking people in the tesla community on this thread while no one else is talking about them. You like to talk about how you’re retired (that’s not a big brag here) and just having fun (trolling). You talk about how Reddit has trash arguments (actually agree with that one) but then post Reddit links as if they have authority.

My dog, who is a rescue and lived as a homeless animal on the shoes of Hawaii for the first few years of his life, is better socialized than you.

If you think the people are downvoting you because they’re haters, consider it’s because your arguments are bad and your tone is worse.

Thanks.