Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Really? How many vehicles does Rivian deliver in a quarter? IMO Tesla's "low-volume" launch, hopefully later this year, will quickly out-produce Rivian. I expect no later than q1 '24 more CTs will be built than Rivians. Maybe wishful thinking on my part though, but Rivian has had great difficulty scaling in any meaningful way.

The question regarded whether CT would affect Rivian deliveries. My response was based on the fact that Rivian's production pales in comparison to Tesla.

CT won't affect Rivian deliveries for years. This has nothing at all to do with either company's ability to scale. In fact, Rivian's inability to scale logically supports the premise that CT will not affect their "deliveries" until after the CT backlog is quenched.

Rivian's "orders" on the other hand may see some headwinds if potential buyers are willing to wait years for a CT delivery.

This too will not affect Rivian's deliveries, as long as they have their own backlog.

Rivian is insignificant in comparison to Tesla to the point that they are a niche brand.

Ford, GM, and Ram (ICE &EV models) are who need to be concerned. Though, they too will enjoy the same reprieve while Tesla works through the CT order backlog.

 

[Usain]

And when it comes to SAAS, it's actually BETTER to start with a lower price. It's called stickiness. You get the consumers attached to the service of the software and as the software improves and/or more features are offered with the service, you can raise the monthly price.

There is absolutely a period of time that it will take to transition consumers who are not used to SAAS in this area (car consumers) to the idea of paying a monthly subscription on top of their up front purchase. Good luck trying to out of the blue charge a huge monthly subscription when FSD does finally reach full autonomy.

Stickiness works when you have a product that the consumer tries and then realizes he can't live without. FSD is not there yet. FSD does not save you time or money.

But once you can sleep or work during your commute, then FSD becomes extremely valuable.

Tesla may eventually offer introductory pricing, like $99 for the first month. After that, it goes to $499 a month. That's how Tesla could do stickiness. But that's only after FSD is good enough to take away the drudgery of the daily commute.

I tend to agree with Elon that something close to full autonomy is not that far away.

 

[PlaidCPA]

Something is wrong with Tesla and its def not the price of their cars. Demand is lacking due to other reasons.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1649063267069833216

 

[betstarship]

Something is wrong with Tesla and its def not the price of their cars. Demand is lacking due to other reasons.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1649063267069833216

I've said this yesterday or two days ago. the interest rate hikes are screwing up a lot and adding a lot more complexity to the system everywhere for everything all at once.

There's so much uncertainty.

 

[jabloomf1230]

Bought more shares this AM at 178.

WS will soon figure out that Energy is now on the S-curve, and auto margins are still > 20% with ramping volume.

Bought another 150 @ $162 but I wouldn't be surprised if TSLA goes lower in the short term.

 

[EVMeister]

Could only afford 60 more shares, but bought at $162. Why not?

 

[EVNow]

Something is wrong with Tesla and its def not the price of their cars. Demand is lacking due to other reasons.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1649063267069833216

What would be funny is if the "New Car Prices" went up because of higher Tesla sales in March

 

[betstarship]

A good question begging for an answer.

I look at over a million pre-orders and compare this to other Tesla model ramps.

Being very optimistic, if that historical pace of ramping tracks, there should be at least a year, maybe two, before the backlog can be pared down via deliveries. Plus, any cancelations when time to buy comes for those not ready.

Tesla executives said it themselves during the last Investor Day talking through how the Cybertruck was designed as a manufacturing-first product. If that's true, then the ramp should be cheaper and faster than any other.

 

[MP3Mike]

CT may be eating into Rivian's "orders." Probably have been all along.

Until Rivian have unsold inventory piling up, their deliveries are at peak for their production rate.

But they do have inventory piling up. (They have only delivered more than they produced in one quarter.)

Days of supply is currently up to 74.

 

[GhostSkater]

Nice paper on the state of Solid State Batteries

If it's too much, skip to page 16 which is the summary, which says that most if not all of the touted benefits of SS haven't been fully achieved even at lab scale

And adding my analysis, even on energy density (that is the thing that always gets people salivating about SS) the companies that do have higher energy density than comercial lithium ion with liquid electrolytes, it isn't by much compared to 4680

4680 V2 that is in production at Texas right now should be around 100 Wh, which means 281 Wh/kg

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/62920f070cf3ea2c2f00af46/t/643fffc28b3ec8664733b4ab/1681915848132/Navigating+the+Solid-State+Battery+Hype.pdf

 

[2daMoon]

Tesla executives said it themselves during the last Investor Day talking through how the Cybertruck was designed as a manufacturing-first product. If that's true, then the ramp should be cheaper and faster than any other.

What does that have to do with any affect on Rivian deliveries?

Let's consider 500k/yr after a two year ramp as a baseline.

Let's say CT doubles that. 1M/yr rate achieved after 2 years.

How long will it take to work through a backlog of 1M existing orders?

A casual guestimation would be 2.5 years. This quickly, only if CT ramps at twice the rate of a Y production line.

So, two or three years down the road, if Rivian is still viable, CT may then have an impact on their deliveries.

 

[bkp_duke]

Something is wrong with Tesla and its def not the price of their cars. Demand is lacking due to other reasons.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1649063267069833216

Are those sales to consumers, or "sales" to dealers? Around here, dealer lots have gone from being pretty bare to PACKED.

 

[2daMoon]

But they do have inventory piling up. (They have only delivered more than they produced in one quarter.)

Days of supply is currently up to 74.

View attachment 930323

Yes, but that is not due to any effect from CT deliveries. Rivian certainly has its own problems to overcome. I hope they do manage to survive.

Essentially, this has been an exercise in logic to highlight the absurdity of consideration over the effects of CT upon Rivian deliveries in the immediate future.

 

[Hiline]

Are those sales to consumers, or "sales" to dealers? Around here, dealer lots have gone from being pretty bare to PACKED.

Note that the figure isn't 'sales'. It is SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate), so it is probably projected from previous quarters based on seasonality and doesn't reflect most recent macroeconomic trends.

 

[Singuy]

Are those sales to consumers, or "sales" to dealers? Around here, dealer lots have gone from being pretty bare to PACKED.

Pretty sure it's what customers paid. Car manufactures did not sell their cars at an ASP that high or else it'll show up in their financials.

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:
Elon & Twitter Legacy blue checkmarks are gone!
Near-future quarterly financial projections Q2 results won't be pretty but the speculation starts now
Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot Never forget about your next best friend
SpaceX Starship - Orbital Test Flight - Starbase TX
FSD discussion Time to believe? I mean, what choice do you have...
Need for Tesla Advertising / PR Well you do have this alternative I suppose
Tesla Litigation Department New leader recruited
The demise of the OEMs Put them out of their misery already!
4680 cell design, chassis integration & factory discussion for investors 25% fewer cogs in the battery gearbox must mean something to someone

 

[Zero CO2]

I agree. I expect the CT launch to be like Model Y. Mostly painless. Tesla is a very sophisticated manufacturer now.

Rivian did a fantastic job considering they are a startup. But Tesla is massively more experienced. The R1T weighs 7300 pounds. Tesla would design a similar vehicle closer to 6000 lbs.

Rivian is hardly a startup .... not very good at manufacturing ... but not a startup ...

Rivian Automotive, Inc., is an American electric vehicle manufacturer and automotive technology company founded in 2009.

 

[WattsHappening]

To me, this thought process is a complete disconnect from reality.

It doesn't have to be all or nothing. I think there are plenty of Tesla owners(especially new Tesla owners) that can't/won't pony up $15,000 up front for FSD no matter what state it's in and who also think $199/month is not worth it but would jump at the features you do get with TODAY'S FSD at $99/month or even $129/month. Hell people spend $500 a month on coffee today due to today' inflation environment. I can't believe that some of you actually think a monthly subscription at a price of $99-129/month wouldn't significantly increase adoption rate of FSD today even with FSD's current state clearly not being close to fully autonomous

And when it comes to SAAS, it's actually BETTER to start with a lower price. It's called stickiness. You get the consumers attached to the service of the software and as the software improves and/or more features are offered with the service, you can raise the monthly price.

There is absolutely a period of time that it will take to transition consumers who are not used to SAAS in this area (car consumers) to the idea of paying a monthly subscription on top of their up front purchase. Good luck trying to out of the blue charge a huge monthly subscription when FSD does finally reach full autonomy.

I'm having difficulty with comparing the $15K up front versus $99 or $129 per month. At $99 per month, that is 150 months or 12.5 years of payments before it equates to the $15K up front price. Add in time value of money, and one could argue it's the equivalent of 15 years or more of payments before they are equal.

As Elon has repeatedly stated that the value of FSD is going to keep increasing and we should expect the price to keep rising, I just don't see $99 or $129 per month as an appropriate subscription cost that we should expect. Given the choice, who in their right mind would choose to pay $15K over $99/$129 per month. Maybe $199 or $249 per month is a better comparison.

Even at $199 per month, to me that would be an easy choice over $15K up front. Especially if Tesla sticks to their guns about FSD not being transferrable. I just can't see subscription cost being less than that.

 

[Hock1]

...yeah, about that. That's why there are so many TSLA "Options market makers" (28 last time I heard). The SEC specifically allows them to continue selling shares short w/o first locating them ('cuz LIQUIDITY!).

Key Points About Regulation SHO - SEC.gov https://www.sec.gov › investor › pubs › regsho

All that does is break the law of supply and demand in the market by providing an inexhausible supply of "pay-me-first, I'll-buy-later" phantom shares. Long shares, however, must be paid first, so that money always runs out.

It's how and why the hedge funds have overrun the Market since the uptick run was first abandoned in 2001. @Hock1 knows much more than I from the trenches.

Just for the record, the Uptick rule was first implemented in the SEC Act of 1938 ( to protect investors from short-sale manipulation ). It was abandoned in 2007 when the SEC determined it wasn't necessary anymore! It was circa 2001-02 that Madoff suggested the no-need-to- borrow for market makers; just sell shares that don't exist and then actually deliver these shares when they get around to it. (Actually, Madoff himself, frequently sold these fake shares and never covered, i.e, stayed naked-short).

 

[hobbes]

Great Visual of the earnings. The Energy bucket will/can surpass Auto in how many years?

View attachment 930208

The graphical fill levels are not proportional to the numbers, good idea but horrible execution on this visual