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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Surprised average loan was that low. Just using average new car price of $48K, average new car loan rate of 6% and average new car down payment of 10%....

Monthly Pay: $935.71​

Total Loan Amount
$48,400.00​
Sale Tax
$2,400.00​
Upfront Payment
$4,800.00​
Total of 60 Loan Payments

$56,142.46​
Total Loan Interest
$7,742.46​
Total Cost (price, interest, tax, fees)
$60,942.46​

I guessed 5% sales tax (closer to 10% in California!), and rolled fees into loan for this calculation...
I assume they are including existing loans. I got 3% without even shopping 2 years ago. Likely anyone with decent credit got similar.
 
I guess the guy selling the M3P couldn't connect the dots that it doesn't matter what he *wants* to sell his used car for, fact is no one is going to pay more than the price of a new car for a used one. How does that not compute?

Also, be sure to pay attention to what you are paying for the used M3 base since even on Tesla's web site, used prices are really stupid and much too high compared to new inventory, if not even higher.
Yep, I ended up buying a Used 2022 Base model 3 with EAP for 38.4K. Hopefully there are no surprises when I take delivery.
 
For context she had similar stratospheric price forecasts for basically all the dozens of stocks she added to her funds, and many of them bombed. Getting one out of 10 or 20 or 50 stocks right does not make her a genius - that makes her extremely mediocre. Compare that to many here who essentially got 1 out of 1 stock right and didn’t feel the need to look at any other stocks - 100% winning record. We don’t need to be posting estimates from mediocre shitco pumpers here - we got plenty of OG mofos here with far better track records.
Thanks, to boot her analysis is just plain off the wall. There is no hard work, no rigorous thought process.
 
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I’m afraid the reality is that Tesla doesn’t have all the data, and this is the core of the very heated debate going on these recent months between the pro advert and the no advert camps.
Yes they have the best data on production and orders vs price, but are missing the very critical piece of info of how much orders can be affected by things like advertising (word used very broadly here, but you get the point).
They are giving up 1 real variable of the equation, just claiming that’s not important.
By refusing to give it a try and generate this data, nobody will never know for sure how important this is and if there could be a more effective way to shift the demand curve compared to cutting prices for a given production level.
Without this critical piece of the puzzle, the debate will never be settled and there can be only opinions.
But, despite what the management claim, they don’t have the data to convince the skeptics… and sadly (for the agnostic and moderate investor) they don’t seem to care to find out.
The real problem is that those ‘skeptics’ and ‘agnostics’ persist in forming opinions on subjects they know nothing about. The Tesla relevant data on every Marketing subject is plentiful. Factually breakfast cereal and beer are entirely different than are cars and storage batteries.
Those categories require distinct approaches. The two most common basic errors in this thread are about advertising and assuming there is a precise price elasticity to demand fir any consumer durable.

These two are topics with copious data, but subject to factors unrelated to the data collected.
Commercial reality is not quite so simple. Regardless many people demand certainty. I’m reminded of Meryl Streep in “doubt” saying ” but I have my certainty”.

These posts are equivalent to ones opining on the best battery chemistry for a given situation by people who do not know anything of the relevant physics and chemistry that is relevant to a qualified opinion. I read about that myself but I’m not qualified so I read but do not opine.
on this subject, though, everyone seems to pretend to know. FWIW, teaching Marketing 101 was always a chore since the first few sessions must be devoted to teaching people to learn before they think they have the answer.

Sorry for becoming strident. This is getting old.
 
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Thanks, to boot her analysis is just plain off the wall. There is no hard work, no rigorous thought process.
If one reads online business sites for more than a few minutes, one encounters articles quoting Cathie Wood, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett and Jamie Dimon about some economic nonsense. It seems that their very name functions as effective clickbait.
 
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Looked at my bank statement today and saw a fairly peculiar amount due. Could this be an omen from the spankmachine god of war? Get rekt care bears.
 
Well worth watching Larry, makes some very good points.

One of those points (4 minute mark) is the non linearity of the transition. He asks us to recall the day flip phones stopped selling. We’re heading for that point in the history of ICE cars. Not cool, not economical, not logical to buy new from a value proposition, not legal in places.
Lately it has seemed that the big day for TSLA will come not from some single action by Tesla, but from the crash of ICE. Positioning on that day is all important. Sacrificing margins for growth is absolutely the right strategy.
 
Can't wait for the 1st Police chase caught on video of a Tesla Cop car closing on some Dodge Hemi like it's standing still.
Teslas make great cop cars , especially with normal routine policing. But you will be disappointed if you think a Y would do well against a top Dodge hemi in a police chase. The plaid S would do well, but a Y LR would lag , and easily be outrun If road was open. Does not matter much while fleets are mixed, it is hard to outrun radio. The money savings with a 75% electric fleet would be amazing.
 
Teslas make great cop cars , especially with normal routine policing. But you will be disappointed if you think a Y would do well against a top Dodge hemi in a police chase. The plaid S would do well, but a Y LR would lag , and easily be outrun If road was open. Does not matter much while fleets are mixed, it is hard to outrun radio. The money savings with a 75% electric fleet would be amazing.
Agreed, the Plaid S would be a better option. With Carbon Ceramic brakes it will outrun the helicopters... but nothing outruns the radio 📻!!
 
interesting thread on price cuts vs advertising...

Frustrating how this topic is so decisive 🥴.

Should Tesla do the traditional advertising of dumb auto commercials that I see during my NBA playoffs? The ones where there’s practically zero useful information in the add…..just tugging on stereotypes and feelings? Absolutely not. Would be a waste of time.

Should Tesla figure out how to educate the masses about how cheap their EV’s have gotten, how large their supercharger network is, etc..? Absolutely. And sorry to say but that’s going to require some form of traditional advertising.

We’re quickly approaching a price point for the 3/Y that put them at the ASP for their ICE counterpart segment. And I’m not talking about their luxury counterparts. A couple more price cuts and it becomes absolutely obvious that some form of educational advertising needs to happen to inform the masses.

This is only going to grow more obvious as Tesla grows in 2024 and 2025 and we’re talking 3-4 million a year. Yes the Cybertruck will be amazing advertising in itself once it ships. But the average consumer that’s looking at an Accord or a RAV4 needs to know just how much they would be saving on a 3/Y along with the other benefits of owning a Tesla. My family back East still repeat the typical stereotyping of Tesla including that their cars for rich people. Tesla’s gotta actually put in the work to change this.


Essentially put it this way. My parents only got their smartphone a few years ago. Like 17 years after the IPhone came out. It takes a long time for the masses to inform themselves on new technology. It seems to me that Tesla’s growth is simply outpacing the natural word of mouth/education growth for EV’s and for Tesla’s especially
 
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For context she had similar stratospheric price forecasts for basically all the dozens of stocks she added to her funds, and many of them bombed. Getting one out of 10 or 20 or 50 stocks right does not make her a genius - that makes her extremely mediocre.
Not neccesarily. In fact Peter Thiel describes this as the best strategy in hs book. His theory is to never bother investing anything in any company you do not think will grow to insane levels. Almost all of the time, you are flat wrong, but if you pick correctly, that one correct pick makes everything else irrelevant.
I think its a totally legit strategy.
When you think long term, everything changes. Maybe cathie I wrong about biotech, wrong about fintech, wrong about roku, and only right about Tesla. Maybe she is wrong about Tesla, but right about biotech, but its just too early.

FWIW I think she is totally wrong about fintech/crypto, even laughably so, but right about biotech and Tesla. I do not think she picks randomly, or fails to do any research. There are plenty of dumb-as-a-rock backwards-baseball-cap-wearing loudmouths on youtube shilling for crypto. No need to put ARK in the same category.
 
Frustrating how this topic is so decisive 🥴.

Should Tesla do the traditional advertising of dumb auto commercials that I see during my NBA playoffs? The ones where there’s practically zero useful information in the add…..just tugging on stereotypes and feelings? Absolutely not. Would be a waste of time.

Should Tesla figure out how to educate the masses about how cheap their EV’s have gotten, how large their supercharger network is, etc..? Absolutely. And sorry to say but that’s going to require some form of traditional advertising.

We’re quickly approaching a price point for the 3/Y that put them at the ASP for their ICE counterpart segment. And I’m not talking about their luxury counterparts. A couple more price cuts and it becomes absolutely obvious that some form of educational advertising needs to happen to inform the masses.

This is only going to grow more obvious as Tesla grows in 2024 and 2025 and we’re talking 3-4 million a year. Yes the Cybertruck will be amazing advertising in itself once it ships. But the average consumer that’s looking at an Accord or a RAV4 needs to know just how much they would be saving on a 3/Y along with the other benefits of owning a Tesla. My family back East still repeat the typical stereotyping of Tesla including that their cars for rich people. Tesla’s gotta actually put in the work to change this.


Essentially put it this way. My parents only got their smartphone a few years ago. Like 17 years after the IPhone came out. It takes a long time for the masses to inform themselves on new technology. It seems to me that Tesla’s growth is simply outpacing the natural word of mouth/education growth for EV’s and for Tesla’s especially
Exactly. I don’t understand why this is so hard to understand for a lot of people on this forum. The people buying cars are not in Twitter like we are. They watch TV and they consume mainstream media. There is not much we can do to change that - Tesla has to go to where they are.
 
Divisive, too.

Tesla and Elon seem unnecessarily stubborn about this. The way to run a successful company is rarely to come up with the most brilliant plan and then execute on that, but rather you use thousands of small trial and error processes and continue doing what works and drop what doesn't. In this case, try advertising in a small market, see if it works and is worth the investment, and then decide.
 
First announcement on twitter:



Then media follows (an example):


Best "not-an-advertisement" for Tesla!