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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Let's look at the linked REUTERS article:

Exclusive: Tesla readies export of Model Y to Canada from China | Reuters (Apr 24, 2023)


In their article today, REUTERS tried to rewrite history on their false claims:

Reuters reported in November that Tesla had considered plans for exporting made-in-China vehicles to North America. After the Reuters report was published, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, in a Twitter post, had said "False," without elaborating.

So let's read what REUTERS actually tweeted back on Nov 11, 2022:


Notice how REUTERS has switched the way they describe their own claim? On Nov 11, 2022 REUTERS said Tesla will export China-made cars to the U.S." But now on Apr 24, 2023 REUTERS claims they said "Tesla will export made-in-China vehicles to North America". Like Canada is the U.S. roto-REUTERS? Revisionist history, to make themselves look correct by lying? Very informative in one way, but NOT about Tesla.

Even more dishonest today, instead of linking to their original article (or the REUTERS tweet that Elon replied to), instead they linked to a followup article from Nov 12, 2022 (the day after Elon told them the story was "false"). They included Canada AND the U.S. This is the worst kind of yellow journalism, practised repeatedly by this gang at REUTERS (lets watch in the future):

Reporting by Zhang Yan in Shanghai and Hyunjoo Jin in San Francisco; Writing by Kevin Krolicki; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman

We're dealing with dishonest media here folks. Be aware.
 
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This weekend I went to my local barber, a self-identified "petrol head". Likes loud engines and motorcycles because they go vroom.

He doesn't know I drive a Tesla (I don't share too much when I can avoid it), and we got talking about the topic of the transition to BEV's.

His opinion was that the transition will "never happen". I asked why he thought so and the reply was "the purchase price of BEV's is not coming down like they intended to, and will never come down enough." (reason: can't scale batteries, rare materials etc etc)

I don't argue against a blank wall so I didn't explain Tesla's next generation platform to him. I will do so in a few years when they are actually driving around and are available for purchase.

Some people cannot extrapolate at all. They are truly fixed upon what exists now and how things happen now. These are the same people that thought personal computers would never find their way into everybody's homes, that mobile phones were forever a toy for the rich, and that smartphones were useless because of touchscreen and because everyone has internet on their PC at home.

Just wanted to share this observation since on TMC we generally overestimate the knowledge of the general public regarding BEV's/the transition/the collapse of ICE sales/ etcetera.

As long as BEV's don't make up for 50% of new car sales, a large group of people will not accept the fact that we will in fact transition to BEV's, never to return. With gasoline versus diesel versus liquid natural gas there has been a push/pull transition in the last few decades depending on what fuel is cheaper in certain countries/states and the resale value this brings to said vehicles. Only in the last five years has the value of diesel cars truly plummetted since now gasoline is seen as "better for the environment" than diesel.

Don't forget this when making investing decisions. To most people Tesla is merely a blip on the radar right now. A small company with novelty cars they don't want because "never heard of them".

This will change rapidly but we're not as close as many here think we are.

So even if we leave FSD out of the picture, the Tesla brand still has lots of room to grow. Again I'm imagining the next generation platform to be the biggest driver in getting Tesla from being seen as a "niche" car maker to an established car maker (in the eyes of the masses), like how right now Toyota or Volkswagen is perceived.

I stay very bullish.

P.S.: even though FSD timelines are polarizing, the above is applicable to FSD also. Most people cannot extrapolate: "FSD is terrible now, so will never work." Only when FSD is recognized/allowed by some state government will these people start considering full autonomy exists and can possibly play a role in their daily lives. Looking at the (r)evolution of the internet since the 1990's until now, a mere thirty years, I cannot with a straight face support the claims that FSD is something that will (only) happen in the far future (+10years away).

My personal FSD timeline is it will be achieved within three years from now. (December 2025) Seems a long time compared to Elons predictions but in the grand scheme of things that is nothing.
Who will achieve autonomy first? "Oh Tesla's going to win level 5." - George Hotz. Jim Keller seems to agree.

And I'm equally optimistic regarding Optimus. Possibly even more so. This company can change the world. (and already has, actually)

TL;DR: #bullish
You summed up man’s perpetual ignorance right there. A friend of a friend of a friend on social media made a comment about how Elon doesn’t put batteries in his rockets; so he was a fraud and his rockets are poking holes in the ozone and he needs to be stopped.

Naturally, I explained batteries don’t work for rockets or he’d use them, etc., etc…. Went on to compare a couple rockets a month vs millions and millions of cars each day dumping emissions for decades, and hundreds of thousands of premature deaths. Finished with, I drive electric, how about you?

Thus followed strawman, have you seen lithium mines, double edged sword blather, then I can’t afford an EV and I don’t want one anyway. 🙄

I further explained potential options of different brands, leasing, used, price differences of fuels, maintenance etc…. And then I shut the conversation down with; if you’re not willing to try then you probably should not comment on Elon’s rockets lest you be labeled a hypocrite.

I continue to be entirely disgusted with people.
 
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People who critizize Elon for political statements on Twitter usually still appreciate all he is doing for Tesla and SpaceX (obviously, as there would be no SpaceX or Tesla without him).
No, I don’t believe they do. A person who feels a need to judge and criticize another, particularly publicly on the Internet, doesn’t truly appreciate the person, their uniqueness, or their achievements, otherwise they wouldn’t do it in the first place. It’s atrocious, unnecessary behavior.
 
No, I don’t believe they do. A person who feels a need to judge and criticize another, particularly publicly on the Internet, doesn’t truly appreciate the person, their uniqueness, or their achievements, otherwise they wouldn’t do it in the first place. It’s atrocious, unnecessary behavior.

From my perspective, those folks are regurgitating what they read in the news and aren't applying critical reasoning skills when it comes to Elon.

e.g. anyone know, off-hand, who invented the microwave?
 
It was a really good focus group that convinced Hewlett Packard there was no future for hand held calculators because slide rules were cheaper, faster and more capable. The focus group was made up of engineers. This one really did happen! Luckily it was just before I landed in the place that did it. Had I been I'd probably have made the mistake. By the time I arrived I already had my Bowmore Brain.

How did you find out about the Bowmore Brain? Ans: advertising.

My father was in the marketing research field when I was growing up. His company had a product called "day after recall." They'd run ads in test markets and then call 1,000 people (or enough to get a good sample size) to see what they remembered about the ad that they saw. That was 60 years ago. You don't spend a billion dollars splashing ads around hoping that some of it sticks. Advertising is a science. Tesla will know within hours if a small number of ads in a test market are working or not.

I know what many of you are thinking: if we run even a few test ads then we won't be able to boast that we don't advertise. Advertising is not a dirty business as many here seem too think. Imagine how off-putting it is to all the people in the world who are in sales or marketing to have Tesla boasting that they don't lower themselves to participate in these industries. Time to lose the superior attitude.

For me, it wasn't the Bowmore Brain (never heard of it before this), it was the TI-30.

And, I found out about it from classmates, not advertising. 🤷‍♂️
 
A friend of a friend of a friend on social media made a comment about how Elon doesn’t put batteries in his rockets; so he was a fraud

Lol. Starship uses 200 KWh Tesla batteries and Model 3 motors for its flap actuators:

SpaceX Starship outfitted with Tesla battery packs and motors | Apr 02, 2020

And Starlink satellites use solar-powered electric thrusters. So there's that too. ;)

Ooh, and Elon donated $100M to the Carbon Xprize w. $50M of that going directly to carbon offsets:


Fair to say that your "friend's friend" is uninformed, as INTENDED, by the Corporate Media.

Cheers!
 
anyone know, off-hand, who invented the microwave [oven]?

Yup. It was a Gunner in an Artillery Locating Battery's Radar Troop. They used to heat up their boil-in-foil rations by putting them on the antenna. He retired after the Korean War. Had a daughter name of "Amana" c.irca 1967. True story. ;)
 
Let's look at the linked REUTERS article:

Exclusive: Tesla readies export of Model Y to Canada from China | Reuters (Apr 24, 2023)


In their article today, REUTERS tried to rewrite history on their false claims:



So let's read what REUTERS actually tweeted back on Nov 11, 2022:


Notice how REUTERS has switched the way they describe their own claim? On Nov 11, 2022 REUTERS said Tesla will export China-made cars to the U.S." But now on Apr 24, 2023 REUTERS claims they said "Tesla will export made-in-China vehicles to North America". Like Canada is the U.S. roto-REUTERS? Revisionist history, to make themselves look correct by lying? Very informative in one way, but NOT about Tesla.

Even more dishonest today, instead of linking to their original article (or the REUTERS tweet that Elon replied to), instead they linked to a followup article from Nov 12, 2022 (the day after Elon told them the story was "false"). They included Canada AND the U.S. This is the worst kind of yellow journalism, practised repeatedly by this gang at REUTERS (lets watch in the future):



We're dealing with dishonest media here folks. Be aware.
Routers is dishonest = impissible
 
Lol. Starship uses 200 KWh Tesla batteries and Model 3 motors for its flap actuators:

SpaceX Starship outfitted with Tesla battery packs and motors | Apr 02, 2020

And Starlink satellites use solar-powered electric thrusters. So there's that too. ;)

Ooh, and Elon donated $100M to the Carbon Xprize w. $50M of that going directly to carbon offsets:


Fair to say that your "friend's friend" is uninformed, as INTENDED, by the Corporate Media.

Cheers!
Yes, of course there’s batteries but clearly they were talking for propulsion. Thanks for reminding me of his donation - had forgotten his evilness had done that.
 
Yes, of course there’s batteries but clearly they were talking for propulsion. Thanks for reminding me of his donation - had forgotten his evilness had done that.

Xenon or Krypton thrusters for Starlink IS propulsion. And it's solar powered, to boot. ;)

FWIW, the Kiwi "Electron" rocket uses battery-electric fuel pumps for its main engines (so kinda "hybrid")

Circling back to Tesla, the larger point is the technology is trending green, and that means electric. Soon enough, the methalox propellant used by Starship/Superheavy will be produced via the Sabatier process from renewable electricity and will be carbon neutral.

This matters.
 
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For those feeling a little blue:

Can I suggest you give the following a chance. Adopt the super bull methodology. It's easy, you don't need to worry about share price, earnings or FUD. You just need to believe that FSD will be coming soon and that the price will be >~$40k per vehicle. Some super bulls not only believe in the Tesla Network, but believe it will happen soon and will provide both owner & Tesla huge income as it inevitably eats Uber's lunch.

I will leave the hyper bull club for another time. You're not feeling that blue after all.
 
I deal with this all the time, "Its not a completed project today, therefore it can never be" . I mean when I first got AOL, the concept of streaming HD video to nearly every home int he world seemed insane. 30 years later we would be a broken society without this feature. Just because it's not perfect today, doesnt mean there isn't relentless incremental improvement.
"Never show a job half done to fools or children".
 
I started driving Uber a couple of weekends ago. So far after giving about 45 rides (probably 60 passengers), no one has had a good understanding of Tesla, electric cars, charging, or the current state of battery technology.
I used Uber today; the driver said he will be replacing his 377,000 km Toyota Corrola with an EV next year.

I told him about the price cuts to the Model Y (here in Canada), he was pleasantly surprised.
 
For those feeling a little blue:

Can I suggest you give the following a chance. Adopt the super bull methodology. It's easy, you don't need to worry about share price, earnings or FUD. You just need to believe that FSD will be coming soon and that the price will be >~$40k per vehicle. Some super bulls not only believe in the Tesla Network, but believe it will happen soon and will provide both owner & Tesla huge income as it inevitably eats Uber's lunch.

I will leave the hyper bull club for another time. You're not feeling that blue after all.
ARK's Regular Bull case is an ASP of $26k within four short years, 1/2 of the actual 2022 ASP

$613billion in autonomous ride-hail revenue also in those four years


Has anyone been keeping up with the politics around the debt ceiling and Inflation Reduction Act? Specifically whether there is an actual risk of the EV incentives being repealed?
 
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ARK's Regular Bull case is an ASP of $26k within four short years, 1/2 of the actual 2022 ASP

$613billion in autonomous ride-hail revenue also in those four years


Has anyone been keeping up with the politics around the debt ceiling and Inflation Reduction Act? Specifically whether there is an actual risk of the EV incentives being repealed?
I have not seen any risk of that. Yes, Republicans want some spending cuts, but there is plenty of other places to cut spending.

Edit, this article lays out proposed spending cuts: What's in House Republicans' bill to lift the debt ceiling and cut spending?
 
No! I found out about it through a placement at Columbia University.

As for the recall questions and much else. Until the advent of large scale Internet search much of the advertising industry ignored 'direct marketing', as it was known then because it was labor intensive, processing intensive and...above all...cheap. Advertising agencies made maoneyy creating advertising and placing ads. They did print ads, even aided local newpaspaer placements and billboards, but those were much less lucrative.

I learned most of my craft in those advertising days and they were wondrous. Big budgets, fancy locations and focus groups plus all kinds of metrics to justify all that.

Tomes change, now very precise internet placements are the huge money spinners.
Companies like Tesla manage to capture social media and search as well as anyone can.

Your father and I were of a different world. To be sure, the big budgets still exist as well as carefully designed metrics that measure everything other than direct sales results, because advertising actually cannot quite manage to tie cause and effect so precisely.

internet, social media, and direct targeting can and does have those metrics. Their weakness is that people who do not understand them mostly don't realize they're happening and often don't actually believe them. That is the dilemma that makes people want advertising, so they can see their own pitch themselves on TV. Sadly, that wastes money.

I come from the marketing attribution world, and one of my former clients is an auto manufacturer with a global marketing budget in the billions of dollars. With the more recent theoretical developments in this field such as market response model and hierarchical Bayes, and with the availability of internet data, both marketing consulting shops and in-house marketing teams have been developing marketing mix models and multi-touch attribution models with increasing accuracy and business impact.

To make the story short, advertising in the auto industry accounts for around 15% of sales in the US market, with ROAS in the single digits. Some marketing channels are more efficient than others. I remember that spot TV was actually the most efficient marketing channel, for both dealership-driven advertising and brand-driven advertising. Paid Search was up there too. The numbers are a bit misleading from a financial point of view because return on ad spend was measured on unit sales and revenue rather than profit because the marketing department's job was to increase sales, not profit, an example of how a big company often has teams that don't align on the same goals. That said, with some extrapolation from the financial reports, I estimated that advertising was a net positive for their bottom line, at least in the US market. ROAS was trending down, however, as the auto market was becoming more and more saturated in the years before Covid.

Unfortunately, I left that world before Tesla exploded, so I never had a chance to study the impact of advertising on EV sales, even though my team started preparing for an EV model launch for our client. Their production numbers were small anyway, and we'd have to use number of orders to approximate sales.

I suspect that traditional paid advertising is still relevant, though it needs to be more data-driven. The average US adult still spends hours a day on TV, on average. People use mental shortcuts more often than they should. When it comes to buying a new vehicle, they often think of what they have been regularly and recently exposed to. An ad campaign that is well pulsed will stay on the audience's mind longer and influences the top-of-mind consideration. They know that the local Toyota is running a financing deal or that Ford has this 2023 vehicle with powerful features, and they know how much these vehicles cost. They may have seen Teslas in their neighborhood but they assume the vehicles are out of reach for them price-wise, not being aware of the recent price reductions. There are people who make purchases based on the ads they are frequently exposed to. Younger demographics trust their Instagram influencers, and older demographics trust the TV ads they see.

I don't know how effective advertising for EVs would be, but the only way to know is to experiment. I don't know why Tesla has never experimented with paid advertising, and I don't think any poster on this forum knows either - all we can do is speculate. My guess is that Tesla is going to start experimenting with paid advertising this year amidst the slowdown in demand and the quick ramp-up in production. They have the scale to make advertising work, and if it doesn't, cut the losses and move on. From a business standpoint, reducing prices is the last-resort option to drive sales. Constantly cutting prices is a much worrisome sign of lack of financial discipline than experimenting with paid advertising.
 
No, I don’t believe they do. A person who feels a need to judge and criticize another, particularly publicly on the Internet, doesn’t truly appreciate the person, their uniqueness, or their achievements, otherwise they wouldn’t do it in the first place. It’s atrocious, unnecessary behavior.
Largely agree, especially likely most true for those most vocal on (pseudo-) anonymous forums. I also think it works both ways, for those heaping praise.

If we are being intellectually honest with ourselves, each of us should be able to find some good and some bad, something they agree with and something they disagree with, about virtually everyone and everything. I, for one, am a person who finds some of both in Mr. Musk, as well as some of both in myself, etc. For anyone who can only find the good or only find the bad in someone / something, I feel sorry for them for they are likely blinded by something that is not letting them see that person / thing in its entirety.

Anecdotally, at a TMC in-person meet up, I asked one individual if they could name a single thing that Mr. Musk had ever said or done that they disagreed with. Even when pressed, that individual could not name a single thing, and in fact emphatically stated that they agreed with 100% of everything Mr. Musk has ever said and done. (Note: I do not believe even Mr. Musk himself currently agrees with every past statement / action of his, as he is smart enough to recognize that in himself, a noble quality I wish more had.) This is likely little better than someone who can only see the bad in Mr. Musk (or virtually anyone / anything else), because it means the person is only understanding a simple *imaginary* abstraction they’ve created in their own mind, and are missing out on understanding the complexities of a *real* person.

TLDR: Loud voices that only should one sided views are likely atrocious, and do likely represent a lack of appreciation for and full understanding of what they’re shouting about. I wonder if cats and dogs are, on average, more able to be balanced in how they view people / things than humans are…
 
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