Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[NicoV]

Had to LOL at this. How can such blatantly ignorant folks write stories ?

The unnamed EV OEM is most likely Tesla. The main SuperVision customer likely isn’t Tesla. Mobileye didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.​

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How EV pricing can affect self-driving cars is an unexpected, unwelcome surprise for investors.​

​

ps : Just to explain - SuperVision customers of MobilEye are EV competitors of Tesla like Zeekr.

FWIW: I don’t think Zeekr will find many buyers in Flanders, for similar reasons as the Ford Pinto in Brazil.

 

[lafrisbee]

ME WANT NOW!!!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1651635311791808529

I have been calling it "The wedge of cheese." And that was just this ant/rat dream when he first started thinking of living in a Cyber(nota)truck for extended periods. A stainless steel wedge attached over the "vault" which would make the Cyber(nota)truck a Cyber(nota)vanagon.
And when Elon recently mentioned that Tesla has a group within the Cyber Production Team that has designed/engineered add-ons for the vehicle immediately I figured one of the add-ons will be "The Cyber/cheese Wedge."
Some youtuber got good video of the rails of the Cyber(nota)truck vault, and there are 2 inch x 2 inch squares that might be attachment points for such a thing(?).

 

[GOVA]

Our friend - Fred put a post up on Twitter that the price cuts did not work b/c the inventory is high.

Given the rise of the EV revolution, I have been wondering what could any legacy automaker actually do to TRY to ensure their survival (besides go bankrupt and be bailed out by a government entity...only to go bankrupt again)....

Full split - EV and ICE parts of a company. ICE dies, EV survives if done correctly.

With Tesla and its capability due to its strength, it might be very, very tough for many.

 

[WolfHero]

Jerome Powell got pranked by Russian thinking he was talking to Zelensky.
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell pranked by Russians

Sasha on YouTube gave his impression on the content of what Jerome revealed.

 

[Matt Porter]

The price cuts by Tesla deliver a huge blow to Mobileye stock.

Mobileye Stock Tanks After Earnings. Blame Tesla.

Self-driving-technology firm Mobileye reported strong first-quarter earnings. But its disappointing outlook was a problem.

www.marketwatch.com

Don't worry about Mobileye, their crack team of advertisers are on it...not that they sell anything I can buy.

 

[DutchDriver]

4% recovery TSLA

 

[AndrewZ]

Lots of weird, annoying mis-information in this post.

First. Inventory is an inevitable consequence of increased production. Unless you can manage zero logistics, it is going to happen.

Second, the Model Y is not selling for $43k. It is selling for $50k and some people will be able to claim $7,500 off their taxes THIS TIME NEXT YEAR. It is a subtle but significant difference.

Finally, the Model Y was not selling for $66k this time last year, that bump didn’t happen until June. When they increased the price to $66k there was a 6-9 month waiting list for cars, so the majority of cars sold in 2022 were sold at less than that peak price with only a few being sold in December and January at that peak price.

Let that sink in. That $66k price-tag reduced demand so much, it caused a 6+ month waiting list to turn into unsold inventory almost instantly. That price was never sustainable.

Production was essentially flat from 4Q22 to 1Q23 and inventory increased, and production is expected to remain mostly flat throughout the year if the target to hit is 1.8million but will need to increase a decent amount to hit the 2m top end.

The real question around the price hikes might be when orders were being delivered and those revenues realized, because there's a good amount of speculation in various delivery threads here that more recent orders at higher prices were being prioritized over those who had locked in older orders at lower prices.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Had to LOL at this. How can such blatantly ignorant folks write stories ?

The unnamed EV OEM is most likely Tesla. The main SuperVision customer likely isn’t Tesla. Mobileye didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.​

​

How EV pricing can affect self-driving cars is an unexpected, unwelcome surprise for investors.​

​

ps : Just to explain - SuperVision customers of MobilEye are EV competitors of Tesla like Zeekr.

Meanwhile, Intel still owns 94% of Mobile Eye… Ouch.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

AMZN beat, should lift up Nas again tomorrow, lets hope $TSLA follows like today.

 

[jerry33]

Production was essentially flat from 4Q22 to 1Q23 and inventory increased, and production is expected to remain mostly flat throughout the year if the target to hit is 1.8million but will need to increase a decent amount to hit the 2m top end.

Flat makes no sense when Berlin and Austin are still ramping.

 

[Ogre]

Well this is not something I knew.

Apparently South Korea has a trade agreement with India which means Tesla’s produced in South Korea unlocks the Indian market for them. The Indian market is a bit of a tough nut to crack due to high tariffs so if Tesla can use SK to work around that, this would be a massive win.

This being a Gen 3 factory is perfect for Indian markets and large parts of Asia in general.

 

[GhostSkater]

Flat makes no sense when Berlin and Austin are still ramping.

I never understood their 1.8M goal, even 2M is barely any ramp everywhere

Basically means that all the lines that are running on all factories are at or close to max capacity, and that second line for Model Y in Texas and Berlin will not show significantly volume until next year

Cybertruck it's fine and expected to ramp slowly

 

[woodisgood]

Well this is not something I knew.

Apparently South Korea has a trade agreement with India which means Tesla’s produced in South Korea unlocks the Indian market for them. The Indian market is a bit of a tough nut to crack due to high tariffs so if Tesla can use SK to work around that, this would be a massive win.

This being a Gen 3 factory is perfect for Indian markets and large parts of Asia in general.


View attachment 932453

There’s obviously going to be a countermove from India…not sure what would be among their options but the current regime does not wish to allow Tesla to take over their auto market.

 

[Knightshade]

Well this is not something I knew.

Apparently South Korea has a trade agreement with India which means Tesla’s produced in South Korea unlocks the Indian market for them. The Indian market is a bit of a tough nut to crack due to high tariffs so if Tesla can use SK to work around that, this would be a massive win.

This being a Gen 3 factory is perfect for Indian markets and large parts of Asia in general.


View attachment 932453

This was already debunked a couple hours ago in this very thread- see here:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Wait .... I don't have to tell you all this. Tesla clearly said during ER they will cut prices to move the cars. If need be all the way to 0% GM ... Well , what he actually said was it's something they could do, given their unique position to profit from autonomy: Elon Musk Well, I can't...

teslamotorsclub.com

and

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Wait .... I don't have to tell you all this. Tesla clearly said during ER they will cut prices to move the cars. If need be all the way to 0% GM ... Well , what he actually said was it's something they could do, given their unique position to profit from autonomy: Elon Musk Well, I can't...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Hiline]

First. Inventory is an inevitable consequence of increased production. Unless you can manage zero logistics, it is going to happen.

Tesla's business model is direct to customer. As far as I know, they don't plan, and don't have, space to store inventory. The inventory is a result of canceled orders.

Second, the Model Y is not selling for $43k. It is selling for $50k and some people will be able to claim $7,500 off their taxes THIS TIME NEXT YEAR. It is a subtle but significant difference.

I don't think we need to debate semantics here. I agree there's a difference, but most people will be able to claim $7,500 off.

Finally, the Model Y was not selling for $66k this time last year, that bump didn’t happen until June. When they increased the price to $66k there was a 6-9 month waiting list for cars, so the majority of cars sold in 2022 were sold at less than that peak price with only a few being sold in December and January at that peak price.

Let that sink in. That $66k price-tag reduced demand so much, it caused a 6+ month waiting list to turn into unsold inventory almost instantly. That price was never sustainable.

What do you mean by 'almost instantly'? The price wasn't $66k until June, but the price increase was a gradual build-up, and the wait time was a gradual reduction. There was no instant change as you implied. Regardless, you seem to agree that Tesla cut prices because demand at the old prices was too low, so you are not the intended audience of my facetious post.

 

[UkNorthampton]

This was already debunked a couple hours ago in this very thread- see here:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Wait .... I don't have to tell you all this. Tesla clearly said during ER they will cut prices to move the cars. If need be all the way to 0% GM ... Well , what he actually said was it's something they could do, given their unique position to profit from autonomy: Elon Musk Well, I can't...

teslamotorsclub.com

and

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Wait .... I don't have to tell you all this. Tesla clearly said during ER they will cut prices to move the cars. If need be all the way to 0% GM ... Well , what he actually said was it's something they could do, given their unique position to profit from autonomy: Elon Musk Well, I can't...

teslamotorsclub.com

Just in case it's not so simple... Indian media complaining about South Korean automakers avoiding import taxes

South Korea's Hyundai and Kia cost India billions of dollars in trade deficit, says Piyush Goyal

The minister said that a small investment of half a billion or a billion dollars has cost India very dear in terms of billions of dollars of trade deficit.

www.businesstoday.in

"The Korean auto industry, specifically Hyundai and Kia, are clearly two of the laggards. They have enjoyed the benefits of our free-trade agreement with Korea and Japan and continue to import indiscriminately," Goyal said.

He added that the small investment of half a billion or a billion dollars has cost India dearly in terms of billions of dollars of trade deficit they have caused us directly with Korea or other countries.

"We've been talking to Korea about opening up their markets for our products, but look at the stark difference, Korea doesn't stop any export of steel from India to Korea, and neither does Japan, but we can't sell a tonne of steel in both these countries because there is a nationalist spirit, which we unfortunately lack," he said.

He added the production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes could only help the manufacturing sector to a small extent as ultimately they needed to be ‘competitive, stand on their own legs and provide quality products to the consumers’.

Production Linked Incentive schemes in India - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Explained: What is PLI scheme, and which sectors will be under it? (Paywall)

Seems like a mess - Hyundai impersonated? - Hyundai Global pulls out of battery PLI

I don't understand it and have to go now. Goodnight

 

[bkp_duke]

Tesla's business model is direct to customer. As far as I know, they don't plan, and don't have, space to store inventory. The inventory is a result of canceled orders.

So let me get this straight . . . you believe that Tesla is agile enough to produce cars, determine sales patterns, but isn't smart enough to push some cars to sales centers to have on hand for walk-up buyers?

Tesla has a LIMITED number of configurations of cars, they don't produce only when an order is made. They produce in batches (based upon paint color mostly, as that is the hardest "swap" to make). If not all of them are sold up front, they put them on car carriers to high volume sales centers. Here in SoCal, I've seen 3 of these locations, where Tesla rents half or more of 5+ story parking deck. They keep both customer cars pre-sold there, and those not pre-sold.

 

[Hiline]

I never understood their 1.8M goal, even 2M is barely any ramp everywhere

Basically means that all the lines that are running on all factories are at or close to max capacity, and that second line for Model Y in Texas and Berlin will not show significantly volume until next year

Cybertruck it's fine and expected to ramp slowly

I didn't understand then either, but I think I get it now. They're probably slowing down their ramp-up because they forecasted a slowdown in purchases this year due to macroeconomic factors. If their demand forecast ticks up later this year, Tesla will have a more aggressive production growth target for next year.

 

[ZeApelido]

Google trends for 3/Y are showing a big increase over the past month. The big positive is this seems to be a slower, more organic ramp than the instantaneous jump on January price cuts.

Up 69% since Mid March local min, up 147% from Thanksgiving bottom, and up 58% from a year ago. More importantly, recent rise in last month seems more gradual buildup than the sharp rise due to January price cut announcement.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1651688442819141633

 

[khill]

Elon just said on the quarterly call that demand >production.

Do you think he's lying?

He also said that in Q1 earnings call in January. And what happened after that? They had to cut prices again in March to get demand to meet production which is same as Q4 (440K). Elon may have referenced the data for that week and extrapolated. We just need to look at their actions, not their words which are often overly optimistic. Same with Zack - he guided for an ASP above 47K and a gross margin above 20% and what did we get? An ASP of 46K and a gross margin of 18.3%. Doesn’t mean he was lying - it just means they are not very good at predicting what’s going to happen the rest of the quarter. Instead of just listening to the management, we all can use publicly available data. The backlog is zero. Hopefully the recent Q2 price cuts bring a lot more demand to meet production, which one again will probably be same as Q4 and Q1 at around 440K.