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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Watched CNBC earlier just before Apple's report. All they cared about were the banks and they said the banks want a stop to shorting of their stock to manipulate it. Can you imagine that? People manipulating a stock by shorting it. Fascinating, simply fascinating that that happens in today's markets.
 


2014 style oil price war is coming soon. Basically, Saudis - when they see the North American producers gaining market share, they start panicking and flood the market with oil supply to crush prices. Now situation is even more complex than 2014, there are fears of recession and exponential adoption of EVs as high oil prices are pushing consumers to EVs and Saudis know that once consumers get taste of EV, they are never coming back to gas vehicles. So, we can expect a price war by Saudis with the sole goal to destroy as much North American oil producers as possible and slow down EV adoption.

The next round of this fight for Tesla will not be with US fed, it will be with OPEC and Saudi. I think we have right weapons in the arsenal - mainly FSD but other factors like the $25k model which will dramatically alter peoples expectation such as stopping purchase of new gas cars and wait for the $25k EV.

Tesla selling 1.8 to 2 millions cars this year will also be sending shivers through the oil supply chains.

No wonder Tesla has boldly declared that this is the year they will destroy ICE forever.

Grab a popcorn... you have front seat on one of the humanity's defining fights.
So if the oil supply increases and the price falls, the global macroeconomy will probably improve in the short term, but we’ve also seen that demand for EVs and Teslas in particular has been very sensitive to gas price spikes. I wonder if we’d see the opposite happen if gas prices plummet.
 
Watched CNBC earlier just before Apple's report. All they cared about were the banks and they said the banks want a stop to shorting of their stock to manipulate it. Can you imagine that? People manipulating a stock by shorting it. Fascinating, simply fascinating that that happens in today's markets.
Quick someone call the sec so we can protect the short sellers right to manipulate the price with false information.
 
So if the oil supply increases and the price falls, the global macroeconomy will probably improve in the short term, but we’ve also seen that demand for EVs and Teslas in particular has been very sensitive to gas price spikes. I wonder if we’d see the opposite happen if gas prices plummet.
My guess is that gas prices need a sustained to 50% point of sale price reduction. If the price per barrel is reduced by 50% some wells close permanently. But I doubt that even a significant reduction in production will be enough to increase prices back to previous levels.

At the same time, the cost of EVs and electricity will continue to fall.

Eventually there isn't enough margin and volume on gas for some sectors of the industry to survive, they either raise prices, or they shutdown.

Eventually the Saudis are the only ones shipping oil and their political influence will start to wane. Increased import duties on oil, will be a very easy and largely popular policy decision in many countries.

I always expected ICE driving will end up like horse riding, an expensive hobby with some level of inconvenience.
 
The ICE in decline videos keep coming. This is one of Farzad’s best, detailing where Ford, GM and Stellantis are at, then discusses their additional troubles with UAW and dealerships.

Don’t miss the tweet discussed at 28:00, a dealer refuses to stock Ford because of Ford planning to cut him out with a direct sales model. Check mate.

 
Just a thought: why not include FSD with all new car sales (where approved)? Use the same dynamic pricing model.

Seems to me like this will happen eventually any ways. Maybe separate out full autonomy for an added charge (when available).
This maybe a cliched statement - repeated many times by Elon FSD is not just a feature for a car, it’s a fundamental change in meaning of car as we know now.

Selling FSD would mean taking liability of all accidents the software gets into ( whenever the software is approved). Why will Tesla such a liability for mere $15k?

Car with FSD will probably be used Tesla themselves to run tax rides where $40k Model Y will eventually earn $300k to $500k throughout its life. This value will come down as fleet increases and I think eventually will come down to 10 cents a mile.
 
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May the Fourth be with you! ;)

(had to get that in at some point today...)
Celebrating Star Wars Day you are...
giphy BB8.gif
 
My guess is that gas prices need a sustained to 50% point of sale price reduction. If the price per barrel is reduced by 50% some wells close permanently. But I doubt that even a significant reduction in production will be enough to increase prices back to previous levels.

At the same time, the cost of EVs and electricity will continue to fall.

Eventually there isn't enough margin and volume on gas for some sectors of the industry to survive, they either raise prices, or they shutdown.

Eventually the Saudis are the only ones shipping oil and their political influence will start to wane. Increased import duties on oil, will be a very easy and largely popular policy decision in many countries.

I always expected ICE driving will end up like horse riding, an expensive hobby with some level of inconvenience.
Petrol only available as mail order!
 
Price bump S&X Asia



Also in Belgium, so I think it is EU-wide. The price increase is linked to 3 years of unlimited free supercharging.
It’s interesting that (at least on the Belgian page) the offer for the 3 years free supercharging excludes company buyers. I would guess that close to 100% of the Model S’es sold in Belgium are company buys, so I doubt that this will result in a lot of extra sales. Probably just the opposite. I’m certainly going to wait for the 6years free supercharging in return for removing free supercharging on the old S now.
 
Also in Belgium, so I think it is EU-wide. The price increase is linked to 3 years of unlimited free supercharging.
It’s interesting that (at least on the Belgian page) the offer for the 3 years free supercharging excludes company buyers. I would guess that close to 100% of the Model S’es sold in Belgium are company buys, so I doubt that this will result in a lot of extra sales. Probably just the opposite. I’m certainly going to wait for the 6years free supercharging in return for removing free supercharging on the old S now.
German page also shows the free supercharging offer, but can´t say anything about the price as I didn´t follow that - cheapest version is 105,490 EUR for the S.