Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

Oddly neutral article on the Cybertruck from BI. Apparently they left the interns running the shop. Or perhaps they are trying to entice some Tesla advertising money.

The long-awaited Cybertruck, which was revealed to much fanfare and with a shattered window in 2019, is finally heading to production this year. The Cybertruck's arrival is expected to shake up the electric-pickup-truck market — and the entire stalwart truck market — with its arresting design and high-tech features.

Tesla's Cybertruck is finally coming. It's going to rattle rivals and transform the EV market as we know it.

The Tesla Cybertruck won't look like anything else on the road when it hits driveways this year. It's poised to be the Hummer of the 2020s.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[insaneoctane]

Re: 4680 production...
I do feel that progress has been on the slow side of Tesla's optimistic goals. But, they accept the challenge of accelerating EV adoption in ways that others will not. Especially when it comes to scale. I have no doubt all disappointments with 4680 schedule are 100% related to scalability. Tesla has 3x 4680 battery factories at various stages (that I'm aware of) and getting the results at scale that they need are hugely impacted by the fact that they've been trying to stand up multiple 4680 factories while they develop the cell and manufacturing equipment. It's a moving target where changes have enormous wag/ impact to the very factories that they're trying to build. My point is scale and as stockholders, I'm glad they're sensitive to the wasted capex if they mistime this. Not to mention warranty liability. I guess that's what Tesla gets for taking on seemingly impossible problems while making it seem easy/doable. I also think that because of the mission, many other companies will significantly benefit from the 4680 cell having never lifted a finger or spent a penny to do so.

 

[Singuy]

Just did a calculation for someone looking at a Toyota Rav 4 and comparing that to a SR Model Y. Basically she makes like 40k/year and is extremely far from the 7500 tax credit. We calculated her credit to be around 2500. She drives 600 miles a week and a Tesla will probably even beat a 28k car just in long term savings, however the price is out of reach. The minute she stops driving that many miles, the gas car will probably win out in savings.

It's daunting for people who can't afford it to have a 700+ monthly payment. Even if her gas savings + monthly payment is the same as a 30k car, the minute she can't afford those payments they can repo the car vs having a lower monthly payment and just car pool if needed to save on gas. Gas is more optional than the monthly payment you are stuck with.

 

[Words of HABIT]

TSLA is up 8x vs. the QQQs, well in excess of its Beta. Those other tickers are practically 'penny-stocks' compared to Tesla valuation. Wanna have some fun? Add up the delta in Mkt Cap for all the tickers you listed, and compare it to TSLA, which is up intraday +$17.5B atm.

Excellent point.
TSLA today at the close +$27.67B

NIO +$1.21B
LCID +$0.86B
RIVN +$0.73B
FSR + $0.16B
NKLA +$0.04B
RIDE +$0.01B (rounding up to two decimal points which is generous)
WKHS +$0.00B
Total of all EV startups noted above (excl. TSLA) today at the close +$3.01B, or less than 1/12 that of TSLA's gain.

Also applies to OEMs such as GM and F which have less than 1/10th the market capitalization than that of TSLA. TSLA is in a league by itself.

 

[aubreymcfato]

You ha

You haven’t? 20% fewer bank branches now than 10 years ago: Number of U.S. FDIC-insured commercial bank branches 2022 | Statista

View attachment 939753

ATM were not invented ten years ago though. And from 2000 to2009 you had a sharp increase. The hidden variable here is the economic crisis.

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla has 3x 4680 battery factories at various stages (that I'm aware of)

I think there are 4:

• Fremont
• GigaTexas
• GigaBerlin
• GigaNevada (very early stage)

 

[joh01652]

Why is it that every time TSLA has a good day, LCID's gotta have a good day too?

I mean JEEEBUS people (aka Wall Street investors), can't you see a difference in the quality of the two businesses? Nope. All EV companies in the same bucket for some reason...

Not sure why everyone's ecstatic here. TSLA ain't up because Tesla's a good business. Hell LCID is up MORE than TSLA today.

If it’s any consolation, LCID is down roughly -86% from it’s all-time-high in 2021 when the markets started dumping compared to TSLA at about -53%. The same goes for the other “EV competitors” from their 2021 ATHs (these are just rough approximations taken from my Apple stock app, but you get the point):

RIVN: -89%
WKHS: -97%
NIO: -85%
NKLA: -99%
GOEV (Canoo): -97%

I didn’t include GM or F because their stocks have been trading basically flat for over a decade. I know people who have bought all these stocks but not TSLA because legacy media told them TSLA was overpriced and that the competition was coming. Imagine how they feel. Anyway, it could be worse, hang in there.

 

[Nocturnal]

Just did a calculation for someone looking at a Toyota Rav 4 and comparing that to a SR Model Y. Basically she makes like 40k/year and is extremely far from the 7500 tax credit. We calculated her credit to be around 2500. She drives 600 miles a week and a Tesla will probably even beat a 28k car just in long term savings, however the price is out of reach. The minute she stops driving that many miles, the gas car will probably win out in savings.

It's daunting for people who can't afford it to have a 700+ monthly payment. Even if her gas savings + monthly payment is the same as a 30k car, the minute she can't afford those payments they can repo the car vs having a lower monthly payment and just car pool if needed to save on gas. Gas is more optional than the monthly payment you are stuck with.

As far as tax liability? Some have had success generating extra liability by doing things like 401k/IRA to Roth conversions. Just in case she hadn't considered something like that.

 

[Singuy]

As far as tax liability? Some have had success generating extra liability by doing things like 401k/IRA to Roth conversions. Just in case she hadn't considered something like that.

Lets just say she doesn't have any retirement savings and doesn't make good financial decisions. The best advice I can give her is to wait at least 6 months so lots can be stocked with cars which means she can buy one for less than MSRP without any market adjustment. There are like 5 rav 4s in the area all in transit..that's about it.

 

[JustSaying]

On Friday, TSLA closed slightly above its 50-day SMA (simple moving average), and shot well above today, moving it halfway to its 200-day SMA. A welcome technical sign.

The "Tesla Fibonacci chart guy" seems to agree;

(I am neophyte.chart guy but this stuff makes my head hurt)

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1660760569152937985

95% - does that make Elon popular in some small way?

 

[Singuy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1660760569152937985

95% - does that make Elon popular in some small way?

Ross Gerber is one of those 5 percenters huh.

 

[GhostSkater]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1660760569152937985

95% - does that make Elon popular in some small way?

So good to have that number

I got in an argument (on Reddit obviously) that the vast majority of investors wanted Elon on the board (and being the CEO)

It's not the vast majority, it's everybody for all practical purposes

And how come the child labor proposition has zero in favor votes? Not even the nun voted for her own proposal?

 

[TrendTrader007]

TSLA up "only" 53.33% YTD compared to NVDA up 113.37% and META up 106%
clearly, Elon is not working hard enough, at least not as hard as Mark
also, i am afraid Tesla is not half as innovative as facebook/meta/whatever
Optimus, FSD are mere distractions to hide lagging demand for EVs
super innovative companies like RIVN, NKLA, LCID etc and stalwarts of ICE F,GM will soon overtake TSLA
time to sell all my TSLA and buy NKLA (unless it is delisted?)
Gordon was right, Burry was right and Chanos was right
even Einhorn and i forgot the guy who ran a little fund shorting TSLA (i hope he is still around-Mark something)
not financial advice
most definitely not financial advice

 

[2daMoon]

Just a reminder here. Not for you Buck…


Tesla previously exported a huge chunk of Shanghai production to Europe. For those (apparently Troy) who might have been snoozing, Giga Berlin’s production is now producing 7,000 5,000+ cars per week.

Apparently Troy-logic is that China should be absorbing all of that Shanghai production that formerly went to Europe?

Canada is not about lack of demand in China, idle capacity, or US production it is simply Shanghai redirecting their existing export stream from Europe to Canada.

EDIT: Fixed the cars/ week because… not sure where that original number came from.

Maybe if you had posted that 7K number in, say, two weeks you would have been right.

 

[TrendTrader007]

on a serious note:
watch TSLA hit $350to $400 or so before 2023 is over
not financial advice

 

[2daMoon]

Just got a Burnt Hair update from Boring Co. Now, shipping in June.

Who among us doesn't think that the timing of the release is being held off to coincide with a pop on the Tesla SP?

I'm happy to wait as long as it takes.

HODL - this is the way

 

[Tronguy]

Something new and different. For me, anyway.

Just received an email from Tesla. Out of the blue. A satisfaction survey. Subject: "Share Your Tesla Experience". From "Tesla <[email protected]>".

I happen to use Thunderbird and am naturally suspicious. So, did the <CTRL>-U gambit and took a very close look at the source code. Dkim signatures match, it was sent from a Tesla server, and the code in the email sure didn't seem malicious. The antivirus didn't find anything, either. The email wanted me to click a link labeled, "Take the Survey". Careful inspection revealed that the web page it pointed at was hosted on Tesla.com, with no funny alternate characters, either. The email address it was sent to is the address over at Tesla.

Took my life in my hands and clicked on the link. Up popped a web page. Careful checking of the https stuff revealed it really was a Tesla.com address; all the certs matched up. Wow. Not a scammer. How unusual.

Not much of a survey, in some respects. I should have taken a capture. There were, I think, five questions, with the usual n/a, don't-like-to-outstanding buttons to press for each. The below is my rough memory of them:

1. How do you like your Tesla?
2. How do you like the stuff for sale on the web site?
3. Would you buy a Tesla for your next car?
4. Would you recommend a Tesla to somebody else?
5. How could the Tesla experience be improved?

I gave it legit answers. But, for #5, I complained about Musk and his antics. As it happens, I have brother and sister-in-law that are in the market for a BEV and who refuse to consider having anything to do with Tesla, primarily because of Musk's anti-social behavior.

Finished it off and sent it in.

However: The S.O. and I have had Teslas since 2018 and have never received any communique from Tesla like this. the occasional recall notice, sure, but that's government-mandated. We've gotten similar.. marketing? emails from other car companies over the decades, but never from Tesla.

Wonder if this has anything to do with Musk's pledge to begin doing a little advertising. I suppose that if one is actually starting up a marketing department, it makes some sense to find out where one is with one's customers and this survey might be one a sign of that.

 

[totoro722]

Watch out! Mary is leading!!

Chevy Silverado EV's Huge Range Puts Teslas and Ford F-150 Lightning to Shame

Even the cheapest Silverado EV delivers more range than the priciest Lightnings.

www.motortrend.com

View attachment 940110

So...you can't buy it till 2024 and you're comparing a Silverado to a Tesla car?
View attachment 940111
So what he's saying is GM doesn't even know how they did it but a contributing factor is a massive battery pack

They clearly did not do it by efficiency of design. Talk about a brick on wheels!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

on a serious note:
watch TSLA hit $350to $400 or so before 2023 is over
not financial advice

Like how serious on a scale of 1-10