Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TesslaBull]

Just did a calculation for someone looking at a Toyota Rav 4 and comparing that to a SR Model Y. Basically she makes like 40k/year and is extremely far from the 7500 tax credit. We calculated her credit to be around 2500. She drives 600 miles a week and a Tesla will probably even beat a 28k car just in long term savings, however the price is out of reach. The minute she stops driving that many miles, the gas car will probably win out in savings.

It's daunting for people who can't afford it to have a 700+ monthly payment. Even if her gas savings + monthly payment is the same as a 30k car, the minute she can't afford those payments they can repo the car vs having a lower monthly payment and just car pool if needed to save on gas. Gas is more optional than the monthly payment you are stuck with.

Ya, pretty much impossible to beat the value proposition for her scenario of say, a used Hyundai Ioniq PHEV. My 19 y.o. daughter just bought such a car. $24k, certified so full factory warranty until 1/2025, powertrain until 1/2030, 30 miles all electric range, 55-60 mpg in hybrid mode. Her commute is 15 miles/day so she never uses gas.

$4k federal tax credit($2500 for lady in your post).
$1500 state rebate for PA.

A person making $40k/year should not be look at ANY $40k car. Also, I know this isn't you, but I'm at a loss for words why someone would commute 600 miles for a $40k job? Those jobs are a dime a dozen today. My daughter makes $48k at Starbucks and they are on every corner. My son works part time at Jersey Mikes and makes $30k with no commute. She'd make more money doing that!

Wife and I both had long commutes at one time, about 100 miles round trip/day each. With no car payments, good, inexpensive, reliable paid off cars(not giant gas hog clown SUVS or pickups), we paid $10,000 to drive in one year. Add $5-$600 car payments per car of the typical American.......we would have spent over $20k in a year just to drive.

Tesla's next gen vehicle will indeed be a game changer if they are able to keep the price under $30k for a brand new electric car.

 

[Ogre]

Haha. If Tesla is at 800 dollars a share right now, shareholders would be like "Yeah Elon, you go get a swastika tattoo and have a few baby pandas for dinner, we support and love you!"

$800 nothing. If the past 12 months looked like the 12 months preceeding the 2020 vote, TSLA would be at $2,200/ share.

The crazy thing about the 2020 vote is that ANYONE at all voted against Musk.

 

[Singuy]

Ya, pretty much impossible to beat the value proposition for her scenario of say, a used Hyundai Ioniq PHEV. My 19 y.o. daughter just bought such a car. $24k, certified so full factory warranty until 1/2025, powertrain until 1/2030, 30 miles all electric range, 55-60 mpg in hybrid mode.

$4k federal tax credit($2500 for lady in your post).
$1500 state rebate for PA.

A person making $40k/year buying a $40k car would be beyond asinine! I hope they don't plan to! Also, why in the world would someone drive 600 miles/week for a $40k job? She's spending 1/3 or more of her take home pay to drive to work. She'd be better off taking a $25k job she can walk or bike to!

It's the result of the housing market in central FL. See this person and her BF who doesn't make a lot with debt wants a NEW house, and a NEW car. I asked her why not used?...And her response was...it doesn't come with warranty. I explained to her that's not the case, well she's not interested. Some people stay poor forever and ends up in bankruptcy court. She is one of them in the making. The kicker is, she's not the only person I know who wants the same things with negative money. I especially like my wife's friend who after buying a new house ended up buying 2 new cars all at the same time and now has problem paying a 7k tax bill.

 

[bkp_duke]

For those seeking insight into how Elon's public persona has or hasn't affected product demand, here a bit of data that, like all other data sets, can't really answer the question but may nevertheless provide some insight.

The latest shareholder vote results are out. They can be compared with the results from 2020, the last time Elon was up for reelection to the board of directors. For the votes I assume that Elon voted all of his shares in favor of himself, and those self-votes provide no insight into the public perception of him. This is reasonable because the number of abstained votes in each case was far less than the number of voting shares owned by Elon (2023 = 715022706 shares and 2020 = 38658670 shares) and the total votes cast demonstrably include all the shares owned by Elon.

In 2020, just 0.831% (less than 1 %) of non-Elon-owned shares were voted against him remaining on the board. This was after the 420 tweet in 2018 and resulting SEC fiasco. The for-Elon/against-Elon (excluding Elon's own vote) ratio was 75.8:1. The brokerage held stock who's owners couldn't bother to vote was 36.3% of the non-Elon owned shares.

In 2023, 5.05% of the non-Elon owned shares were voted against him remaining on the board. This was after the Twitter purchase and much additional Elon tweeting. The for-Elon/against-Elon (excluding Elon's own vote) ratio dropped about a factor of 6 to 12.7:1. The brokerage held stock who's owners couldn't bother to vote was 30.9% indicating a little over 5% of non-Elon owned shares that didn't care previously now cared enough to vote this time.

Now there are a lot of factors to muddy the waters including that TSLA shareholders are generally strongly pro-Elon, and those who totally lost faith likely sold their shares and wouldn't show up in these votes. Also the number of people voting is far different from the number of votes because the voting is of course share-ownership weighted. Many other factors make interpreting this data difficult.

My take away is that the change in perception of Elon has been net-negative and not been negligible.

Markets were WAY different in 2020 as well. Tesla was going on a run, not had just had 50+% of it's value lobbed off by the idiots at the FED.

People ALSO vote with their pocketbooks. I would argue more so than politically.

 

[Hiline]

I would love for TSLA to run that high by the end of 2023, but unless the PE Ratio runs up over the 100+ range I don't see how it can. And I don't see the PE going that high again, at least not until the Fed starts lowering rates which likely won't be until mid to late next year (2024).

I'm still banking on TSLA taking another dive by the end of the year due to high interest rates and eroded margins, so I'm saving some cash to buy on the dip. But next year TSLA should be golden with Cybertruck sales and ads. If FSD makes significant advancements in the next 12 months, that'd be the cherry on top. By end of next year TSLA may well hit the 300's.

That said, I did pick up some shares right after the ad announcement, so I'm also ok with TSLA being on the up and up to eternity.

 

[bkp_duke]

Apparently Tesla is doing some "advertising" to their existing customer base. I got this text no less than 5 minutes ago.

Hey this is Cam from Tesla. I hope you have been enjoying your Tesla!

I am reaching out to see if you would be interested in exploring Tesla Solar to reduce your Electric Bill, OR if you already have solar and would like to expand!

We are offering Solar Energy at the lowest pricing in America, Guaranteed. The Current Federal Incentive is 30% on all Residential Solar systems installed before 2032*

Please Respond YES if you are interested and I would be glad to chat with you more. If not, please respond NO. All the best,
Cam

 

[Singuy]

In other news, TT007 is back to his old self again . This feels like a reunion



Yet, Elon is the most popular political figure in the USA. It's a pity the US constitution discriminates against people not born in the USA.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1660484601335382016

Well looks like Vladimir Putin has zero chance winning the US presidential election. That's good I guess. Mexico and Canada can sleep a little better tonight since invasion is off the table.

 

[spacerfc]

For those seeking insight into how Elon's public persona has or hasn't affected product demand, here a bit of data that, like all other data sets, can't really answer the question but may nevertheless provide some insight.

The latest shareholder vote results are out. They can be compared with the results from 2020, the last time Elon was up for reelection to the board of directors. For the votes I assume that Elon voted all of his shares in favor of himself, and those self-votes provide no insight into the public perception of him. This is reasonable because the number of abstained votes in each case was far less than the number of voting shares owned by Elon (2023 = 715022706 shares and 2020 = 38658670 shares) and the total votes cast demonstrably include all the shares owned by Elon.

In 2020, just 0.831% (less than 1 %) of non-Elon-owned shares were voted against him remaining on the board. This was after the 420 tweet in 2018 and resulting SEC fiasco. The for-Elon/against-Elon (excluding Elon's own vote) ratio was 75.8:1. The brokerage held stock who's owners couldn't bother to vote was 36.3% of the non-Elon owned shares.

In 2023, 5.05% of the non-Elon owned shares were voted against him remaining on the board. This was after the Twitter purchase and much additional Elon tweeting. The for-Elon/against-Elon (excluding Elon's own vote) ratio dropped about a factor of 6 to 12.7:1. The brokerage held stock who's owners couldn't bother to vote was 30.9% indicating a little over 5% of non-Elon owned shares that didn't care previously now cared enough to vote this time.

Now there are a lot of factors to muddy the waters including that TSLA shareholders are generally strongly pro-Elon, and those who totally lost faith likely sold their shares and wouldn't show up in these votes. Also the number of people voting is far different from the number of votes because the voting is of course share-ownership weighted. Many other factors make interpreting this data difficult.

My take away is that the change in perception of Elon has been net-negative and not been negligible.

Doesn't this include institutional investors too, in which case someone in the fund management made the decision to vote? If that's the case, that's hardly reflecting the public perception of Elon. Your numbers would be more convincing if it's from retail investors.

 

[TesslaBull]

It's the result of the housing market in central FL. See this person and her BF who doesn't make a lot with debt wants a NEW house, and a NEW car. I asked her why not used?...And her response was...it doesn't come with warranty. I explained to her that's not the case, well she's not interested. Some people stay poor forever and ends up in bankruptcy court. She is one of them in the making. The kicker is, she's not the only person I know who wants the same things with negative money. I especially like my wife's friend who after buying a new house ended up buying 2 new cars all at the same time and now has problem paying a 7k tax bill.

Ah,.....yeah it's sad to see people like this...there are SOO many..almost the rule rather than the exception. People literally choose to be broke their whole lives.

 

[Snerruc]

Apparently Tesla is doing some "advertising" to their existing customer base. I got this text no less than 5 minutes ago.

Hey this is Cam from Tesla. I hope you have been enjoying your Tesla!

I am reaching out to see if you would be interested in exploring Tesla Solar to reduce your Electric Bill, OR if you already have solar and would like to expand!

We are offering Solar Energy at the lowest pricing in America, Guaranteed. The Current Federal Incentive is 30% on all Residential Solar systems installed before 2032*

Please Respond YES if you are interested and I would be glad to chat with you more. If not, please respond NO. All the best,
Cam

Yeah, I got one of those ,also. I don’t know anyone who clicks on anything on email or text anymore even from known sources. Tesla might rethink that one.

 

[bkp_duke]

Yeah, I got one of those ,also. I don’t know anyone who clicks on anything on email or text anymore even from known sources. Tesla might rethink that one.

I still had the text history from delivery for our Model Y, so I was sure this was legit and from Tesla. I just don't need any more solar.

Now . . . if he had said Plaid Model 3, I would have been all over it (wishful thinking).

 

[FastEddieB]

(I am neophyte.chart guy but this stuff makes my head hurt)

Technical Analysis and reading charts of past performance to predict future performance are doomed to fail.

I think your head hurts by trying to makes sense out of nonsense. The remedy is simple.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Note at trading close today, TSLA is up 74.72% YTD.

TSLA close as of December 30,2022 $123.18
TSLA close today 5-22-2023 $188.87
$188.87divided by $123.18 = 1.5332 or 53.32%

TSLA open on 1-3-2023 $118.47
that is 59.42% as of today's close

TSLA all time low between November, 2021 through today was $101.81 on 1-6-2023
that is 85.51% as of today's close

TSLA has tremendous volatility. if i had zero emotions, like chatGPT-4, i could trade it on a probabilistic basis but that is easier said than done. i am sure there are far superior traders than i who make an absolute killing trading TSLA. i am just not very good at it. my biggest success has come mainly from buy and hold with concentrated, leveraged bets. interestingly, my TSLA position is not very leveraged at all compared to olden days. the way i look at it, unless see an extremely obvious trading opportunity, why should i even risk losing my position attempting to time this crazy stock in this crazy market. suppose i time everything to near perfection and one fine evening while i am 100% cash, out of blue Elon announces FSD robotaxis or finished Optimus or some positive CT or sub- $25k vehicle or energy product revenues or stock buyback or another split or Warren B buying stake in TSLA and stock is up 30% to 50% gap up next morning. that would require a very fine anti-depressant in high doses! i am simply unwilling to take that risk. as far as i am concerned, TSLA will someday trade at $2000 and someday at $10,000 after several more splits and give me minimum CAGR 30 to 60% over very long time frame. so i am not about to lose that huge upside.
and to tell you the truth, TSLA is sitting right beneath 19 month long trendline. when, and not if, TSLA breaks that trendline to upside, well, that is when games begin. we are at very incipient stages of a spectacular bull market. TSLA could 10X to 20X in less than 3 to 5 years time frame.
no guarantees, of course. all educated guess on my part.
as always, not financial advice

PS: I have a strong feeling that FSD robotaxi or some other major positive announcement that gaps up TSLA big time in a single day might very well come suddenly and unexpectedly, when everyone least expect it. sometime in 023 or 024 or 2025
Elon himself stated TSLA goes through long periods of sideways movement and then runs up like crazy. that is TSLA. i have learned to live with it

 

[Knightshade]

Apparently Tesla is doing some "advertising" to their existing customer base. I got this text no less than 5 minutes ago.

I've gotten several marketing ads via email from Tesla over the years about solar offerings.

Weirdly, every time I went to the link in the email (yes yes first making sure it's a safe link) to see what it's about they tell me they don't offer anything where I live.

I mean, it's not like Tesla doesn't have my address on file, you'd think somebody would filter the mailing list to be properly targeted but guess not.

Yet, Elon is the most popular political figure in the USA. It's a pity the US constitution discriminates against people not born in the USA.

The thing I hate about that poll is how bad everyones numbers are. Like, nobody on that list, even the top scorer Elon, has even a 50% approval rating. How insanely divided is a nation where NOBODY is liked by even half the people?

 

[hacer]

Not “Muddy” at all. This is an investment security. Performance is almost always the #1 factor influencing shareholder voting. You didn’t even mention this in your post.

Your argument might be remotely interesting/ relevant if the shareholder vote had been contrary to performance, but it wasn’t.

The other vote for comparison is from June 2014 where they used slightly different methodology where votes not for Elon were not broken out in "against" and "abstained". But we can combine those in the more recent years and it doesn't significantly alter the numbers.

The shareholder meeting on June 3, 2014 saw 3.1% of non-Elon-owned shares voted against him being on the board and a for/against ratio of 18.1. At the time TSLA stock price had gained over 121% from the year-ago period which itself was shortly after the one-day 31% price surge after their first reported quartly profit and was 1,200% higher than the IPO price just 4 years earlier. In other words, at a point of astounding stock performance - even better than the 4 years preceding the 2020 board election where TSLA gained only 980%. And yet the negative vote against Elon was more than 3 times greater in 2014 than it was in 2020 despite fantastic performance and an obviously bright future.

So maybe voting for/against board membership based on preceding stock performance (I guess that's how you vote, macros or not) doesn't always govern how most stockholder vote.

 

[bkp_duke]

The other vote for comparison is from June 2014 where they used slightly different methodology where votes not for Elon were not broken out in "against" and "abstained". But we can combine those in the more recent years and it doesn't significantly alter the numbers.

The shareholder meeting on June 3, 2014 saw 3.1% of non-Elon-owned shares voted against him being on the board and a for/against ratio of 18.1. At the time TSLA stock price had gained over 121% from the year-ago period which itself was shortly after the one-day 31% price surge after their first reported quartly profit and was 1,200% higher than the IPO price just 4 years earlier. In other words, at a point of astounding stock performance - even better than the 4 years preceding the 2020 board election where TSLA gained only 980%. And yet the negative vote against Elon was more than 3 times greater in 2014 than it was in 2020 despite fantastic performance and an obviously bright future.

So maybe voting for/against board membership based on preceding stock performance (I guess that's how you vote, macros or not) doesn't always govern how most stockholder vote.

As is typical, 3%, 5%. It's a VERY small but VERY VOCAL minority that wants us to believe that is how we all should think . . . but we don't.

Nuff said, Elon's the boss, and the overwhelming majority of shareholders want him right where he is.

 

[hacer]

Doesn't this include institutional investors too, in which case someone in the fund management made the decision to vote? If that's the case, that's hardly reflecting the public perception of Elon. Your numbers would be more convincing if it's from retail investors.

I agree, the share weighting makes it hard to see the size of retail investors voting against Elon. The didn't-bother-to-vote count is however certainly retail investors. They definitely became more engaged but we can't be certain if that engagement was positive or negative. But the law of averages suggests it would follow the trend of the other voters, meaning most approving but a growing group of those disapproving.

It's also more likely that a fund manager that disapproves of Elon (especially if they believe it will hurt company performance) simply sells the shares and then is not voting. Many funds did exit/reduce their positions in the last year but of course we don't know for sure what the reasons were and there can be many reasons that have nothing to do with their perception of Elon, and they are a small group of persons anyway. But I think they are less likely to stick around for a vote against Elon than to just exit the position so this would tend to reduce the weighting of fund managers in the group voting against Elon.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

I would love for TSLA to run that high by the end of 2023, but unless the PE Ratio runs up over the 100+ range I don't see how it can. And I don't see the PE going that high again, at least not until the Fed starts lowering rates which likely won't be until mid to late next year (2024).

AMD, Amazon, Nbidia? 150-500
Tesla should have a higher PE than any of them

 

[Mengy]

AMD, Amazon, Nbidia?
Tesla should have a higher PR than any of them

I agree. It should, but unfortunately it doesn't, and probably won't for a very long time, if ever again. Too many forces trying to keep TSLA suppressed in the name of profits and manipulation.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

I agree. It should, but unfortunately it doesn't, and probably won't for a very long time, if ever again. Too many forces trying to keep TSLA suppressed in the name of profits and manipulation.

Until they can’t. Then it’s gonna be stupid again, based on the silly past imo