Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Just a reminder here. Not for you Buck…


Tesla previously exported a huge chunk of Shanghai production to Europe. For those (apparently Troy) who might have been snoozing, Giga Berlin’s production is now producing 7,000 cars per week.

Apparently Troy-logic is that China should be absorbing all of that Shanghai production that formerly went to Europe?

Canada is not about lack of demand in China, idle capacity, or US production it is simply Shanghai redirecting their existing export stream from Europe to Canada.

When did Berlins production rate hit 7k/week? We’re they at 5k/week about a month a half to two months ago?

 

[Todd Burch]

TSLA is up 8x vs. the QQQs, well in excess of its Beta. Those other tickers are practically 'penny-stocks' compared to Tesla valuation. Wanna have some fun? Add up the delta in Mkt Cap for all the tickers you listed, and compare it to TSLA, which is up intraday +$17.5B atm.

Only problem is--the value of my TSLA portfolio doesn't increase based on market cap.

 

[Ogre]

When did Berlins production rate hit 7k/week? We’re they at 5k/week about a month a half to two months ago?

For some reason I had that number in my head… 10 seconds of searching have failed to deliver validation of my remembrance so I updated it to a number I know is good. Thanks.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

For some reason I had that number in my head… 10 seconds of searching have failed to deliver validation of my remembrance so I updated it to a number I know is good. Thanks.

5k/week is still very good and it doesn't invalidate what you were saying. It was always going to be assumed that when Berlin hit and sustained mass volume 5k/week and above, that Shanghai exports patterns and logistics would shift to other markets.

 

[mongo]

For some reason I had that number in my head… 10 seconds of searching have failed to deliver validation of my remembrance so I updated it to a number I know is good. Thanks.

Q1 slide deck lists Berlin Model Y capacity at >350,000; Divide that by 50 uptime weeks and you get your 7k.

 

[Optimeer]

Q1 slide deck lists Berlin Model Y capacity at >350,000; Divide that by 50 uptime weeks and you get your 7k.
View attachment 940094

5k/week is still very good and it doesn't invalidate what you were saying. It was always going to be assumed that when Berlin hit and sustained mass volume 5k/week and above, that Shanghai exports patterns and logistics would shift to other markets.

Statstesla on Twitter is estimating the Berlin production according to the VIN Numbers which show up in Norway. Today new higher VIN‘s were observed which indicate a production rate of almost 5000 / week. The old estimation rate with this method was 3700 / week. There is a lag of probably a few weeks in this observation method, so it is possible that todays production rate is a bit higher, we just don‘t know.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1660695967165759488

Edit: This estimation method might only be accurate as long as there is no build up of inventory in Norways provided Tesla is applying First in - First out. Since the cars are likely delivered by batches (e.g. ship or train), a temporary build up of inventory is to be expected in a balanced prodcution vs. demand scenario.

 

[Todd Burch]

Q1 slide deck lists Berlin Model Y capacity at >350,000; Divide that by 50 uptime weeks and you get your 7k.
View attachment 940094

That's installed capacity though, not current production capacity.

 

[navguy12]

Funny you should mention this query as I was pondering it earlier as well.

What I came up with is that Wall Street is really just a whole bunch of people. Most of whom have dedicated themselves to taking the path of least resistance, much like people do everywhere.

When their collective semi-consciousness begins noticing more frequent mention of Tesla and Elon in a positive light they jump on the bandwagon. More so because that appears to be what the crowd is doing. This stems from the fact that their analytical skills are finely honed for planning where to eat lunch and what to do next weekend, more than they are for sorting out facts and figures and all that hard stuff their job title might allude to.

Likely, they have also gotten some negative reinforcement over their careers in regard to past attempts at decision-making based upon their own skills (or lack thereof) and have migrated to the safer "follow the herd" strategy. This way, even if the herd is wrong, there is someone else to blame and they keep their jobs.

Or, maybe it is something else entirely. That is the way it goes with complex dynamic systems, particularly when people have a hand in them.

Where shall we have lunch?
Might I suggest Milliways?

View attachment 940058​

You seem to be describing some sort of non-communist economic system (with full respect to our mods).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

That's installed capacity though, not current production capacity.

It does however give a clear insight into where Tesla is planning on Berlin production rates being in the next 1-2 quarters. They're clearly not stopping the ramp at 5k/week.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

For those that thought $TSLA was rising because it was oversold, under valued, not a leader, we now know whey it is rising:

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Watch out! Mary is leading!!

Chevy Silverado EV's Huge Range Puts Teslas and Ford F-150 Lightning to Shame

Even the cheapest Silverado EV delivers more range than the priciest Lightnings.

www.motortrend.com

So...you can't buy it till 2024 and you're comparing a Silverado to a Tesla car?

So what he's saying is GM doesn't even know how they did it but a contributing factor is a massive battery pack

 

[Ogre]

5k/week is still very good and it doesn't invalidate what you were saying. It was always going to be assumed that when Berlin hit and sustained mass volume 5k/week and above, that Shanghai exports patterns and logistics would shift to other markets.

Yeah, I saw your similar sentiment a few posts above mine.

The weird mental gymnastics Troy goes through sometimes to try and reverse-justify his previous comments is almost comical.

 

[Ogre]

Watch out! Mary is leading!!

Chevy Silverado EV's Huge Range Puts Teslas and Ford F-150 Lightning to Shame

Even the cheapest Silverado EV delivers more range than the priciest Lightnings.

www.motortrend.com

View attachment 940110

So...you can't buy it till 2024 and you're comparing a Silverado to a Tesla car?
View attachment 940111
So what he's saying is GM doesn't even know how they did it but a contributing factor is a massive battery pack

Weird that he compares next year's truck to this year's Tesla's. Maybe he didn't know that Tesla also has a truck coming between now and then?

I guess comparing the truck Tesla has slated to be on sale (before) the Silverado with bigger range doesn't make for as exciting a headline?

Even the bit comparing the Ford to the Silverado is almost certainly wrong.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Weird that he compares next year's truck to this year's Tesla's. Maybe he didn't know that Tesla also has a truck coming between now and then?

I guess comparing the truck Tesla has slated to be on sale (before) the Silverado with bigger range doesn't make for as exciting a headline?

Even the bit comparing the Ford to the Silverado is almost certainly wrong.

MSM at its finest, just fishing for clicks.

 

[Curt Renz]

On Friday, TSLA closed slightly above its 50-day SMA (simple moving average), and shot well above today, moving it halfway to its 200-day SMA. A welcome technical sign.

 

[Electroman]

Even the bit comparing the Ford to the Silverado is almost certainly wrong.

How so? Not challenging, just asking ..

 

[M|S|M MYP]

How so? Not challenging, just asking ..

Because one exists and the other doesn't?

 

[TN Mtn Man]

I think part of the advantage of going to 48v, which requires less copper, is that it make it possible for Tesla to use the flexible printed PCB/harness, which make installation easier to automate. (At least I think that is one of the things they said.)

Interesting thought and should be a big cost savings! Especially if they can use zero insertion force (push in) connectors and avoid terminations on the end of the FPC. Makes design a lot more challenging, but manufacturing might be greatly simplified. Wonder if there are any real size limits and what the current limits are on them these days-been decades since I've worked with them.

 

[Ogre]

How so? Not challenging, just asking ..

What this article claims: “Even the cheapest Silverado has more range than the more expensive Lightning”

What GM actually said: The 2024 Silverado EV work truck will be offered in two range specifications. At launch, it’ll have an EPA-estimated range of 450 miles on a full charge, Harvey said, and "then we’ll have other variants that start to be introduced and we will have an option in terms of different configurations in terms of mileage.”

It is at the moment unclear what the range of the cheapest Silverado will be. Nor is it clear what the range on the Lightning will be when the Silverado is launched. With the Hummer GM made a big deal of it having a 350 mile Range only to walk that number down to 320 after launch.

Because one exists and the other doesn't?

BINGO!

The cheapest Silverado might not be out until well into 2025 when it is entirely possible the next Gen Lightning will be introduced. The author is stating as fact some future state which is unlikely to ever exist.

 

[mongo]

Interesting thought and should be a big cost savings! Especially if they can use zero insertion force (push in) connectors and avoid terminations on the end of the FPC. Makes design a lot more challenging, but manufacturing might be greatly simplified. Wonder if there are any real size limits and what the current limits are on them these days-been decades since I've worked with them.

There are a few patents (or applications) on their approach. It's fancier than the normal flat flex with exposed pins. 'Cable' has internal twisted pairs and ends in a connection block/ plate (in one embodiment) .
US20190217794A1 - Wiring system architecture - Google Patents

But that's enough for this thread.
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