Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MartinAustin]

goodbye shorts. it was nice knowing you. RIP

It was already at $263 earlier this morning. I wonder if that will be our cap for the day

(a day where microsoft, google, apple, Amazon & netflix are all down)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

And like clockwork...

You've been pretty spot on for pretty much all of last year @StarFoxisDown!. Hoping your predictions for the future (which gave gotten rosier in the last month) come true!

The next 6-8 months could be quite choppy for TSLA and the market in general. Not because I think the bear case for interest rates, the economic damage, and a recession are legit. But because I think Wall St will run with whatever narrative they can to achieve as much volatility on the up and downside as possible until it's crystal clear that we're exiting this Fed rate hike cycle and we're entering a new bull market.

As for Tesla specifically, the compression on margin is only going to last until the Fed pivots and start reducing rates. The affordability of a 3/Y greatly increases when auto loan rates aren't in the 7-8%. In the meantime, I feel Tesla is going to use this year to be a lean as possible, so I expect margins and profits to recover strongly at the end of this year and into 2024. There's also the fact that the EV credit changes into a point of sale beginning on Jan 1st 2024. That will have major implications. Not just because consumers always care more about up front savings over waiting for their tax return, but it also immediately lowers monthly payments since the loan amount is less from the start.

Then obviously we have the Cybertruck, Energy, and Gen 3 catalysts for end of year and for 2024. Also a sleeping giant that no one is really talking about is Tesla insurance. As US production keeps increasing thanks to Austin and as Tesla gets more states approved, Insurance can actually become something material in 2024.

But I've been vocal over the past couple of months because I'm becoming increasingly more and more bullish on FSD since they merged into single stack and my bullishness in TSLA's performance over the next 2 years has correspondingly increased. There's been a material increase in frequency of updates and there's been some big jumps in how good it's gotten. Not perfect at all. I'm sure the usual people here that for whatever reason, operate FSD in a area where it has many issues and will say FSD/Robotaxi is still many years away. I don't think it's the case. And I don't think FSD = Robotaxi's just to have major high margin revenue.

Wall St just needs to see Tesla as a SAAS business and once the recurring revenue starts to show up in earnings...even if it's small, Wall St will be foaming at the mouth. Just remember how highly AWS was valued for Amazon while it only made a small amount of revenue/profit in relation to Amazon's overall business. It took many, many years for AWS to grow enough to where it had big impacts into Amazon's earning and yet Amazon stock was handsomely rewarded for AWS SAAS revenue very early on.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It was already at $263 earlier this morning. I wonder if that will be our cap for the day

(a day where microsoft, google, apple, Amazon & netflix are all down)

You have to remember that pretty much all of the morning trading action is MM's either dropping the stock or capping in hopes to get as many of those 260 and above call owners to close out those calls

 

[ripper88]

Tesla Powerwall installations double in 18 months to 500,000 worldwide

Tesla’s Energy division, one of the most underrated and often overlooked segments of the company, has been growing rapidly over the last few years. One piece of the Energy division is the Powerwall, Tesla’s home […]

driveteslacanada.ca

The last update on the number of installations came six months later in November 2021 when it was announced that figure had reached 250,000. In the eighteen or so months since then, that number has doubled yet again, with Tesla announcing this week there are now 500,000 Powerwall installations around the world. Interestingly the tweet has since been deleted, but here’s what it said before it was taken down.

Tesla is expected launch the next iteration of its Powerwall very soon. Called Powerwall 3, the new unit is expected to house Prismatic lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells. This will make Powerwall 3 cheaper to produce, and follows the same change Tesla made with their utility-scale Megapack system last year (and the Model 3 RWD before that). Tesla has already applying to have Powerwall 3 approved and certified with some utility companies in the US, with some of those utility companies already certifying it.

 

[Krugerrand]

Someone should award him a medal for enduring such inhumane suffering.

Someone should warn you about heckling The Cat. It bites.

 

[cliff harris]

I'll believe in progress regarding FSD when we have an update here in the UK. Right now, even fi you have paid for FSD, its only traffic light recognition, and you are stuck with TeslaVision for stuff like parking, auto dim headlights and wipers.
Does anyone know if the FSD beta improves headlights/wipers?
Here in the UK, it seems like unless I clean the windshield every morning, the wiper-recognition can be SO BAD, that it basically renders even basic cxruise control unusable. Tesla have made the dumb decision of forcing auto wipers on if cruise control is active. Given that they trigegr randomly, it makes using cruise control look like your car is malfunctioning.

Case in point: We have had no rain in a MONTH here, and today my 2022 model Y wouldnt drive on cruise control without constantly triggering the wipers. My wifes 12 year old Lexus handles this way better at half the purchase price.

So expect a lot of people outside the US, without FSDBeta to basically discount its value to zero until they fix super basic stuff like this. Its embarrasing to hear elon talk about achieving FSD this year when a new Tesla cannot see a brick wall a foot in front of it, or know when to turn wipers on...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Guess interns got booted for the last hour of trading

 

[WolfHero]

Elon interview today with VIVA Technology (edited with a different video link)

 

[AndrewZ]

I'll believe in progress regarding FSD when we have an update here in the UK. Right now, even fi you have paid for FSD, its only traffic light recognition, and you are stuck with TeslaVision for stuff like parking, auto dim headlights and wipers.
Does anyone know if the FSD beta improves headlights/wipers?
Here in the UK, it seems like unless I clean the windshield every morning, the wiper-recognition can be SO BAD, that it basically renders even basic cxruise control unusable. Tesla have made the dumb decision of forcing auto wipers on if cruise control is active. Given that they trigegr randomly, it makes using cruise control look like your car is malfunctioning.

Case in point: We have had no rain in a MONTH here, and today my 2022 model Y wouldnt drive on cruise control without constantly triggering the wipers. My wifes 12 year old Lexus handles this way better at half the purchase price.

So expect a lot of people outside the US, without FSDBeta to basically discount its value to zero until they fix super basic stuff like this. Its embarrasing to hear elon talk about achieving FSD this year when a new Tesla cannot see a brick wall a foot in front of it, or know when to turn wipers on...

There is no way Elon believes generalized Level 4-5 autonomy is happening this year, "achieving FSD" or "solving FSD" clearly means something different.

 

[powertoold]

There is no way Elon believes generalized Level 4-5 autonomy is happening this year, "achieving FSD" or "solving FSD" clearly means something different.

I don't think he said that though. In his most recent statement at shareholder meeting(?), he said he believes Tesla will achieve 2x human safety performance (if driver didn't disengage / intervene) by the end of this year. He didn't say anywhere in the world or any weather condition. I take that to mean that for a theoretical geofenced area, 2x human safety FSDb performance. This doesn't mean it's ready for L4+.

 

[wipster]

The next 6-8 months could be quite choppy for TSLA and the market in general. Not because I think the bear case for interest rates, the economic damage, and a recession are legit. But because I think Wall St will run with whatever narrative they can to achieve as much volatility on the up and downside as possible until it's crystal clear that we're exiting this Fed rate hike cycle and we're entering a new bull market.

As for Tesla specifically, the compression on margin is only going to last until the Fed pivots and start reducing rates. The affordability of a 3/Y greatly increases when auto loan rates aren't in the 7-8%. In the meantime, I feel Tesla is going to use this year to be a lean as possible, so I expect margins and profits to recover strongly at the end of this year and into 2024. There's also the fact that the EV credit changes into a point of sale beginning on Jan 1st 2024. That will have major implications. Not just because consumers always care more about up front savings over waiting for their tax return, but it also immediately lowers monthly payments since the loan amount is less from the start.

Then obviously we have the Cybertruck, Energy, and Gen 3 catalysts for end of year and for 2024. Also a sleeping giant that no one is really talking about is Tesla insurance. As US production keeps increasing thanks to Austin and as Tesla gets more states approved, Insurance can actually become something material in 2024.

But I've been vocal over the past couple of months because I'm becoming increasingly more and more bullish on FSD since they merged into single stack and my bullishness in TSLA's performance over the next 2 years has correspondingly increased. There's been a material increase in frequency of updates and there's been some big jumps in how good it's gotten. Not perfect at all. I'm sure the usual people here that for whatever reason, operate FSD in a area where it has many issues and will say FSD/Robotaxi is still many years away. I don't think it's the case. And I don't think FSD = Robotaxi's just to have major high margin revenue.

Wall St just needs to see Tesla as a SAAS business and once the recurring revenue starts to show up in earnings...even if it's small, Wall St will be foaming at the mouth. Just remember how highly AWS was valued for Amazon while it only made a small amount of revenue/profit in relation to Amazon's overall business. It took many, many years for AWS to grow enough to where it had big impacts into Amazon's earning and yet Amazon stock was handsomely rewarded for AWS SAAS revenue very early on.

Thanks for your outlook my friend... not quite as rosy as I hoped, but a bit more optimistic than your thoughts earlier in the year. I personally think we'll be above 300 this time next month if deliveries are again record setting (while reducing the wave) and if margin is at least over 20... fingers and other appendages crossed.

Now refresh my memory, While the $7,500 is available immediately starting next year, is it still a tax credit or is it a true cash rebate ala Colorado? Tax credits actually penalize those of us that pay little or no Federal Tax. A very poorly written part of the IRA IMHO.

 

[Knightshade]

Now refresh my memory, While the $7,500 is available immediately starting next year, is it still a tax credit or is it a true cash rebate ala Colorado?

The credit works exactly the same way as far as qualifications, the only change is you can transfer it to the dealer to apply toward the vehicle at time of sale.

If it turns out when you file your taxes you didn't actually qualify for that credit you took you'll be writing the IRS a check.

Tax credits actually penalize those of us that pay little or no Federal Tax. A very poorly written part of the IRA IMHO.

Given it's a non-refundable credit, that means it's not "giving" buyers any money at all, it's simply letting them keep more of their own money by reducing their tax burden.

This addresses the objections (well, all valid ones anyway) about other people "subsidizing" EV buyers- they're not.

But it's also why if you HAVE no tax burden there's nothing to reduce.

Most folks buying a new car will have one though (and many others can create one in various ways like a roth conversion, recognizing some cap gains in profitable investments, etc)

 

[Curt Renz]

This Interstate Commerce matter really needs to go to SCOTUS.

From my trading platform's newsfeed - 15:43 EDT:
Tesla loses bid to overturn Louisiana's ban on direct car sales.

 

[JustSaying]

Weekend off topic
I used to think that aTesla jet powered roadster was too far out to be feasible but after watching this you tube guy I get it now...

 

[H Mak]

Just a story that reminded me that despite all you losers, there is still the odd human being who gets an open invitation.

After yesterday’s work on The Mountain, I chatted with my self-proclaimed redneck general contractor for what turned into 4 hours.

Topics were wide and varied, but included Tesla, Elon, Cybertruck, EV transition, electric grid, GM, Ford, government bailouts, media/journalism, AI, Optimus, Neuralink, Boring Co., Vegas Loop, SpaceX, Starlink, Mars, coming Zombie Apocalypse etc…. He’s definitely been Googling since becoming by GC. Way more up on topics than I’d imagined.

- mad respect for Elon geared quite specifically toward the fact he’s a big thinker, a ‘doer’ rather than a talker, and doesn’t back down
- bring on EV adoption but is concerned about the electric grid - felt better after discussing renewables
- terrified of AI and it becoming self-aware
- thinks the prospects of neuralink are fantastic but concerned it may be used by others for nefarious reasons (same with AI)
- doesn’t trust a single media outlet and knows he’s being lied to to some degree about everything
- pretty sure the government will bail out GM/Ford if needs be but hopes they don’t
- disappointed the current government doesn’t much acknowledge Tesla nor support them as a home grown American company
- not a fan of unions
- no loyalty to any brand of truck and is wanting to see what Cybertruck will bring to the table, especially for off-roading

He does have an uncle who has one of the early Model Ss and is always blown away by it when he’s in it for a ride.

I just found it intriguing that he’d taken the time to do some research into things he knows his client has an interest in, form his own opinion, and openly and candidly share.

There's a few jobs I need doing around my house in Liverpool if he's interested

 

[H Mak]

So all the 260 puts expired worthless. Clever. But look at the volume. Again.

 

[DutchDriver]

Let's go for the $270 next week

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Let's go for the $270 next week

Nah..think big...$420

Happy Father's day to all the dad's out there who strive to be the best father that you can be. Just remember one thing, Enjoy the day because that is the only day father's get, every other day during the year is mother's day

 

[cdub]

Re Giga... I think he's looking to have a factory in most countries eventually. That's needed to meet the 20m unit goal I think.

 

[TesLeif]

The next 6-8 months could be quite choppy for TSLA and the market in general. Not because I think the bear case for interest rates, the economic damage, and a recession are legit. But because I think Wall St will run with whatever narrative they can to achieve as much volatility on the up and downside as possible until it's crystal clear that we're exiting this Fed rate hike cycle and we're entering a new bull market.

As for Tesla specifically, the compression on margin is only going to last until the Fed pivots and start reducing rates. The affordability of a 3/Y greatly increases when auto loan rates aren't in the 7-8%. In the meantime, I feel Tesla is going to use this year to be a lean as possible, so I expect margins and profits to recover strongly at the end of this year and into 2024. There's also the fact that the EV credit changes into a point of sale beginning on Jan 1st 2024. That will have major implications. Not just because consumers always care more about up front savings over waiting for their tax return, but it also immediately lowers monthly payments since the loan amount is less from the start.

Then obviously we have the Cybertruck, Energy, and Gen 3 catalysts for end of year and for 2024. Also a sleeping giant that no one is really talking about is Tesla insurance. As US production keeps increasing thanks to Austin and as Tesla gets more states approved, Insurance can actually become something material in 2024.

But I've been vocal over the past couple of months because I'm becoming increasingly more and more bullish on FSD since they merged into single stack and my bullishness in TSLA's performance over the next 2 years has correspondingly increased. There's been a material increase in frequency of updates and there's been some big jumps in how good it's gotten. Not perfect at all. I'm sure the usual people here that for whatever reason, operate FSD in a area where it has many issues and will say FSD/Robotaxi is still many years away. I don't think it's the case. And I don't think FSD = Robotaxi's just to have major high margin revenue.

Wall St just needs to see Tesla as a SAAS business and once the recurring revenue starts to show up in earnings...even if it's small, Wall St will be foaming at the mouth. Just remember how highly AWS was valued for Amazon while it only made a small amount of revenue/profit in relation to Amazon's overall business. It took many, many years for AWS to grow enough to where it had big impacts into Amazon's earning and yet Amazon stock was handsomely rewarded for AWS SAAS revenue very early on.

Not just single-stack FSD Beta and quick software iterations (new versions), but also broad roll-out to users in North America, and much progress in getting FSD Beta approved in several other countries. Fingers crossed!