Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

Not to be the downer of the party, amazing progress, but not much on term of vehicles, I will wait for CleanerWatt video since he has been keeping track of production pretty close

If those cells are going into Model Y and that number are only from good cells, this is around 11500 4680 Model Ys

If they are 4680 V2 and that is being set aside for Cybertruck, this is around 5000 Cybertrucks with 500 miles of range

Looking forward to the 100 million mark and hope it comes soon, which would be a really good sign for the ramp

I'm finding it increasingly helpful to cross-check assumptions against the latest public statements made by Tesla.

On Investor Day Drew made the following statements (my wording approximates what he said):-

1. The DBE process at Austin has 20X the productivity of the Kato Rd line shown on Battery Day.
2. The cathode facility being built at Austin has a 60GWh capacity. (Ramping in Q2/Q3)

I haven't checked the latest earnings call.

My interpretation, Tesla intends to to produce at least 60 GWh of 4680 cells per year at Austin, and that ramp will be steeper once that cathode facility is built.

We don't really know what the current bottleneck is, but my hunch is raw materials and cathodes can't simply be assumed to be present in sufficient quantities to support a fast ramp.

Austin should produce far more cells than Kato Rd, because there are more lines, and most of the equipment is an improved design.

Training of staff is another potential bottleneck, and might be an area where Kato Rd currently retains an edge.

We also know Cybertruck is only going to be built in low volumes this year and that 2024 is likely to be when the 4680 ramp accelerates.

Tesla had sufficient cells for 1.8 million vehicles at the start of the year, Elon has bumped that up to 2 Million being possible, but we also know the Semi ramp is slowing down and it is likely some 2170 cells that may have been used to build semis are being used to build Model Ys.

So 4680 production is probably worse than the best case scenario, we don't know how much of that is a surprise, unplanned or unintended.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

So 4680 production is probably worse than the best case scenario, we don't know how much of that is a surprise, unplanned or unintended.

A Tesla tradition is Elon saying "____ turned out to be a lot harder than we expected"

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anybody else notice that today TSLA 'filled the gap' to Sep 30, 2022?

Intraday low then was $262.47 vs today's intraday high at $263.60. So that's 179 trading sessions...

Cheers to the LEAPS!

 

[CaliBear1]

the new Prius looks better than any before them to me:

Just a story that reminded me that despite all you losers, there is still the odd human being who gets an open invitation.

After yesterday’s work on The Mountain, I chatted with my self-proclaimed redneck general contractor for what turned into 4 hours.

Topics were wide and varied, but included Tesla, Elon, Cybertruck, EV transition, electric grid, GM, Ford, government bailouts, media/journalism, AI, Optimus, Neuralink, Boring Co., Vegas Loop, SpaceX, Starlink, Mars, coming Zombie Apocalypse etc…. He’s definitely been Googling since becoming by GC. Way more up on topics than I’d imagined.

- mad respect for Elon geared quite specifically toward the fact he’s a big thinker, a ‘doer’ rather than a talker, and doesn’t back down
- bring on EV adoption but is concerned about the electric grid - felt better after discussing renewables
- terrified of AI and it becoming self-aware
- thinks the prospects of neuralink are fantastic but concerned it may be used by others for nefarious reasons (same with AI)
- doesn’t trust a single media outlet and knows he’s being lied to to some degree about everything
- pretty sure the government will bail out GM/Ford if needs be but hopes they don’t
- disappointed the current government doesn’t much acknowledge Tesla nor support them as a home grown American company
- not a fan of unions
- no loyalty to any brand of truck and is wanting to see what Cybertruck will bring to the table, especially for off-roading

He does have an uncle who has one of the early Model Ss and is always blown away by it when he’s in it for a ride.

I just found it intriguing that he’d taken the time to do some research into things he knows his client has an interest in, form his own opinion, and openly and candidly share.

Your mountain citadel appears to be in great hands with this GC.

 

[GhostSkater]

L

I'm finding it increasingly helpful to cross-check assumptions against the latest public statements made by Tesla.

On Investor Day Drew made the following statements (my wording approximates what he said):-

1. The DBE process at Austin has 20X the productivity of the Kato Rd line shown on Battery Day.
2. The cathode facility being built at Austin has a 60GWh capacity. (Ramping in Q2/Q3)

I haven't checked the latest earnings call.

My interpretation, Tesla intends to to produce at least 60 GWh of 4680 cells per year at Austin, and that ramp will be steeper once that cathode facility is built.

We don't really know what the current bottleneck is, but my hunch is raw materials and cathodes can't simply be assumed to be present in sufficient quantities to support a fast ramp.

Austin should produce far more cells than Kato Rd, because there are more lines, and most of the equipment is an improved design.

Training of staff is another potential bottleneck, and might be an area where Kato Rd currently retains an edge.

We also know Cybertruck is only going to be built in low volumes this year and that 2024 is likely to be when the 4680 ramp accelerates.

Tesla had sufficient cells for 1.8 million vehicles at the start of the year, Elon has bumped that up to 2 Million being possible, but we also know the Semi ramp is slowing down and it is likely some 2170 cells that may have been used to build semis are being used to build Model Ys.

So 4680 production is probably worse than the best case scenario, we don't know how much of that is a surprise, unplanned or unintended.

Latest speculation and compilation of information from Cleanerwatt, but doesn't help much since we have no Clue what is Kato Rd and what is Texas

When it starts to get to multiple 10's of GWh we will know it's Texas

Source:

 

[wipster]

On the contrary, seems like the put volume at 260 has been growing which is making the incentive to keep it under 260 much less. I think we're actually looking at a close slightly under 262.

261.49... Not too shabby!

 

[TrendTrader007]

TSLA call options became very expensive very fast. I had sold my $290 December 2025 calls sometime last week at $38. Now trading over $84 when I last checked earlier today
Weekly chart shows week #5 of very strong weekly bollinger breakout which is indicating possible gap up Tuesday morning and lots of further TSLA sp appreciation over next several weeks to months with fast and furious pullbacks, similar to 2019 through 2021 timeframe. Not investment advice. I’m posting several weekly charts from current and prior periods for comparison.
I continued to buy TSLA yesterday and all day today. Anything below $261 was great buy
Not investment advice
Have a great weekend all

 

[TrendTrader007]

For what it’s worth, here is what I think are the 2 biggest risks in my opinion currently:
#1 not owning enough TSLA
#2 underestimate power of current rally and sell too soon
Just my opinion. Not investment advice
Here’s a great weekend video for traders that I watched last night. The guy makes great points about flexibility and daily recalibration of expectations. I will watch again

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla has increased the discounts for S & X inventory cars by $2500

https://twitter.com/x/status/1669908285661511681

 

[Robertj]

Maybe Tesla could make a few right hand drive S & X and not drop the price ?

 

[Electroman]

This looks new. 4 hrs ago. Almost like an ad. Says Tesla a lot. Branding all over it.

Where do you see this screen? which app is this?

 

[Electroman]

Color me surprised.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1669415407055421440

Almost every other reply to that tweet is asking about NACS support.

 

[winfield100]

Where do you see this screen? which app is this?

View attachment 947773

watch the video @ 1/4 speed.
@~9 seconds, It's a S with a yoke at 11:31, few seconds later it's 1:02pm, both on the S screen
@Around 29 seconds it's a _computer_ screen with up in the upper right hand corner "log out" and a username@tesla

i suspect it's a version of SW that is in testing phase (want! please!)

much more sophisticated, imagine whats past that...

I wonder how it will handle the ICE'd spaces, (twice to us at same place) at one popular charge spot that was at a burger joint with tight parking in Florida, with several quite vocal rowdy Tesla drivers "hootin and hollering about ICE'd charging spaces"
a tesla pulling a U-haul trailer sideways blocking 3-4 spaces to charge,
a Tesla pulling a pocket sailboat that passed through unable to charge without disconnecting at another place,

plus a _very_ grumpy person who was "discombobulated and venting bouts of steam from orafices in my direction" (probably unhappy due to Bucee's food prices but who knows)
because at a 250kw charging site I parked right next to him, (spot 3C was reporting down and most rest full and supposedly at 250's there is no sharing twixt pedastals)
(yes those are edge cases, but...)

 

[Todd Burch]

Tesla has talked for awhile now about their “next-gen” architecture. Drew hinted at higher charging speeds during the semi reveal but Elon seemed to stop him to prevent spilling any beans.

It seems likely that there will be some sort of special Tesla event where they reveal their latest architecture. Do we know for sure if this will be the Cybertruck, or some later vehicle?

If the Cybertruck, do we think it will be during their Cybertruck delivery event? Usually delivery events aren’t used for such reveals.

For this reason I feel there may be a new tech reveal event this summer which should help boost the stock price and sales.

I suspect it will go over this new tech:
-48V architecture
-FSD HW 4
-Upgraded charging speeds
-Higher range(?)

This will help put them ahead of Lucid and further ahead of Rivian, neither of which have money to redesign their architecture.
Perhaps Tesla is waiting for 4680 production to spool up more and to get comfortable with the new ingredients for their v2 4680 cell chemistry to be ready.

 

[petit_bateau]

... and yet not a single word about European Regulators which are preventing FSD Beta from being deployed in those countries. Truly embarrassing.

DEFINITELY:
- European regulators are not stopping Tesla getting parking sensors/etc working;
- European regulators are not stopping Tesla getting windscreen wipers/etc working;

PROBABLY:
- European regulators are not stopping Tesla testing autopilot/FSD/etc provided that Tesla complies with the same legislation as all other manufacturers and road users at all times;

As to embarassment, YMMV.

 

[cliff harris]

... and yet not a single word about European Regulators which are preventing FSD Beta from being deployed in those countries. Truly embarrassing.

There is no European regulation that forces auto-wipers and teslavisions 'park assist' to be so absolutely terrible.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Where do you see this screen? which app is this?

View attachment 947773

That's from Tesla's back end monitoring control center for employees to monitor all the SuC locations. The other website open is "OpsGenie" which is an alerting platform which they could use to have incidents assigned when there are issues with a stall or location.

I think they are just showing off their monitoring/integration capability and how much real time visibility they have into their charging network. They've shown some quick screenshots of their internal systems software before, I think it was the virtual power plant monitoring but I am unable to find a link easily.

 

[Ipcress]

the new Prius looks better than any before them to me:

View attachment 946849
View attachment 946851

I absolutely agree. Seems they decided to scrape off all the weird Darth Vader spindle-grilles, fake brake ducts and other accretions and go with some non-offensive sheet metal. Maybe they will sell some...

 

[StapleGun]

A Tesla tradition is Elon saying "____ turned out to be a lot harder than we expected"

Good. I'd rather invest in a company that is a year late solving hard problems than a company who can only solve easy problems but does so right on schedule.

 

[Skryll]

DEFINITELY:
- European regulators are not stopping Tesla getting parking sensors/etc working;
- European regulators are not stopping Tesla getting windscreen wipers/etc working;

PROBABLY:
- European regulators are not stopping Tesla testing autopilot/FSD/etc provided that Tesla complies with the same legislation as all other manufacturers and road users at all times;

As to embarassment, YMMV.

LOL well, that is exactly the point, all those are work in progress and will become much better with time, just like FSD. You can wait until its perfect, or you can have early access. You can't have both. And perfect will happen a lot sooner if early access is the norm as there will be a lot more testing and feedback into the development from the field, probably leading to weekly improvements/stepback patterns that converge much faster. At least FSD beta is an opt-in early access.

And explain to me again maybe why the steepness of the autopilot/fsd turn has to be restricted in Europe, in order to comply with those weird local laws, the software is actually less safe than it could be.

Also consider the possibility that 'experts' from legacy industry are helping shape those laws and policy with an anticompetitive mindset. (They would never cheat like that! VW would never....)