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IMHO, just as Model Y is outselling the car competition in the US, the Cybertruck will similarly outsell the pickup truck competition. So plan for 720,000 annually (240,000 X 3) just for the US. Should not be a stretch to see worldwide Cybertruck sales of 1,000,000 within three to four years and stay consistent at that level.

Errr... the Y is the best selling vehicle in the world... but isn't outselling the next best car 3:1- nor even 2:1, more like 5-10% higher than #2.... So if CT was performing similarly it'd be around 250k annual sales, not 750k. and Y is a LOT less polarizing a design than CT is. It's also significantly cheaper than the CT is likely to be in the early years.

Also your target #s are 2-3x higher than Elon said they plan to actually make of the thing- having recently cited 250k and maybe higher depending on demand annually, and specifically pointing out it's been hard to make it more affordable (and I expect Elons cited production #s reflect their expected high pricing and what demand at that pricing is likely to look like)



My son's 2018 Model 3 has old school cruise.

"dumb" cruise was available on Teslas right up until spring of 2019 when they made basic AP (which included TACC) standard instead of a paid option.

Most other car makers with active cruise do offer a toggle to turn the smart part off and go back to dumb cruise- but Tesla does not.
 
From my weekend Were I God file...
Were I Elon I'd consider having some less experienced SW engineers earn their Keeper Badge by expanding the voice control options. Pretty much any screen input could be associated with a voice command. Even better, allow some latitude in wording so >2 ways of saying the same command would be "understood" by the voice input software and call the appropriate action as done from the screen.
 
Errr... the Y is the best selling vehicle in the world... but isn't outselling the next best car 3:1- nor even 2:1, more like 5-10% higher than #2.... So if CT was performing similarly it'd be around 250k annual sales, not 750k. and Y is a LOT less polarizing a design than CT is. It's also significantly cheaper than the CT is likely to be in the early years.

Also your target #s are 2-3x higher than Elon said they plan to actually make of the thing- having recently cited 250k and maybe higher depending on demand annually, and specifically pointing out it's been hard to make it more affordable (and I expect Elons cited production #s reflect their expected high pricing and what demand at that pricing is likely to look like)
Please re-read.
 
Anyone who thinks they can do better also has the option of starting their own car company.
You don't need to start your own car company, just get a job at Tesla and do what this guy did 🤣

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Here's what you wrote:



But as I pointed out, Model Y is only outselling the next best selling non-pickup by about 5-10% worldwide (which is the corolla)--if you want to stay US focused the Y is only outselling the next best selling non-pickup (the Rav4) by about -1- percent in the US.

So your suggested 720k/x3 annually in the US would not be, at all, "similarly" outselling by the CT over the next best selling pickup truck.

A similar outsell by the CT would be more like 250k units a year.

Which, as I also mention, is about what Elon said they expect to make once they ramp.
4 months of F pickup sales 240k. 12 months 3x that. So if it were to outsell the F series (or is it just 150?) it would be around that 720k mark, no?
 
4 months of F pickup sales 240k. 12 months 3x that. So if it were to outsell the F series (or is it just 150?) it would be around that 720k mark, no?


Yes!

My apologies for conflating part year and annual sales figures, and thanks for pointing it out.

That said, the suggested annual sales # is still 3x the amount Elon recently suggested annual production was targeting after scaling up, with him citing trouble on making it affordable enough as a reason for that.

Certainly might be something we'd expect them to solve in the coming years though.
 
You don't need to start your own car company, just get a job at Tesla and do what this guy did 🤣

View attachment 948429
Actually, I was *just* thinking that if I were in charge of Tesla development, I would put together a program where programmers could offer to fix various bugs that were bugging them for free. I would bet Tesla would get loads of offers for free development work.

Just to take a minor example, some of the problems with FSD is caused by bad map data. I drive on a local rural road that has posted 25 mph speed limits, but for some reason, the car thinks a 1/8 mile stretch in the middle of it has a 45 mph speed limit, so it speeds up and then slows down when doing FSD. The reverse also happens to other people, which is more aggravating. Anyways, you can conceive of a whole bunch of algorithms to find and clean up bad data like this which would make FSD that much better.

Since I'm a retired programmer, I would love to work on this particular problem, which would a nice easy bit of work, no stress, and would help everyone.
 
Actually, I was *just* thinking that if I were in charge of Tesla development, I would put together a program where programmers could offer to fix various bugs that were bugging them for free. I would bet Tesla would get loads of offers for free development work.

Just to take a minor example, some of the problems with FSD is caused by bad map data. I drive on a local rural road that has posted 25 mph speed limits, but for some reason, the car thinks a 1/8 mile stretch in the middle of it has a 45 mph speed limit, so it speeds up and then slows down when doing FSD. The reverse also happens to other people, which is more aggravating. Anyways, you can conceive of a whole bunch of algorithms to find and clean up bad data like this which would make FSD that much better.

Since I'm a retired programmer, I would love to work on this particular problem, which would a nice easy bit of work, no stress, and would help everyone.
I thought Tesla bought the map data, so there’s not much they can do about it other than making FSD less reliant on the map.
 
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Actually, I was *just* thinking that if I were in charge of Tesla development, I would put together a program where programmers could offer to fix various bugs that were bugging them for free. I would bet Tesla would get loads of offers for free development work.
They could make it a profit center. I'm reminded of the sign that hangs in a mechanics shop. "My rate is $80/hour. $120 if you want to watch. $160 if you want to help."
 
Actually, I was *just* thinking that if I were in charge of Tesla development, I would put together a program where programmers could offer to fix various bugs that were bugging them for free. I would bet Tesla would get loads of offers for free development work.

Just to take a minor example, some of the problems with FSD is caused by bad map data. I drive on a local rural road that has posted 25 mph speed limits, but for some reason, the car thinks a 1/8 mile stretch in the middle of it has a 45 mph speed limit, so it speeds up and then slows down when doing FSD. The reverse also happens to other people, which is more aggravating. Anyways, you can conceive of a whole bunch of algorithms to find and clean up bad data like this which would make FSD that much better.

Since I'm a retired programmer, I would love to work on this particular problem, which would a nice easy bit of work, no stress, and would help everyone.
I have those exact problems near my home and on my commute.

35mph road with houses on both sides...FSD jumps to a 55mph speed limit for a short section, until it sees the next 35mph sign. It used to accelerate much harder for the "fast" section, and I think that has at least tamed a little lately, but it still aims to go much faster than it should so I need to be ready to scroll-down the speed.

Some time ago, another nearby area had a 25mph speed limit sign that the car would literally display on-screen, but ignore and target its own 55mph speed limit. That one got fixed, so FSD follows the correct 25mph limit now.

And for FSD trying to go too slow: much of my commute is through somewhat remote desert areas, on 1-lane-each-way roads with an assumed 55 mph speed limit. There are sections where FSD assumes a 25mph speed limit, so I need to correct that upward. In one particularly annoying spot, it assumes a 25mph speed limit for a short section -- I get that corrected with the scroll wheel -- then the map data jumps very briefly to the correct 55, and then drops back down to 25mph again, demanding another manual correction.

Also a couple sections with oddly placed speed limit signs (one sign is far across a dirt shoulder from the road, and another sign is mounted low on the pole, beneath another road sign) that FSD doesn't acknowledge...so I'm accustomed to manually adjust for those too.

A couple years ago, Elon's line about FSD (and really all the automated features in the cars) was that "any [user] input is error [on the car's part]." So, on some level, I tell myself that as I make inputs to correct FSD's errors, that might be getting logged somewhere, and Tesla's engineers are just working their way down the list of priorities to correct the errors over time.

Related thought: Does anybody else feel like FSD puts them in an odd/unique state of mind? For me, it's like a combination of opposites -- it really is a more relaxing drive, but at the same time I feel more focused and vigilant as I watch for any need for my input/correction.
 
From my weekend Were I God file...
Were I Elon I'd consider having some less experienced SW engineers earn their Keeper Badge by expanding the voice control options. Pretty much any screen input could be associated with a voice command. Even better, allow some latitude in wording so >2 ways of saying the same command would be "understood" by the voice input software and call the appropriate action as done from the screen.
Faraday Future uses cloud-based AI to offer great flexibility:
Review :
The voice activation worked very well and would understand commands even if you didn't ask it a certain way. There's no need to say "navigate to..." before the address like to have to in many vehicles. You could say "Take me to..." or "Let's go to..." or "I want a hamburger" and the system will intelligently understand what you're asking for. When asking for a dining destination, the navigation screen shows many options in the area and has the establishment's ratings and Yelp reviews available.

Video queued up to demonstrate:


Of course, FF wants $15K annually for this feature..
 
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From my weekend Were I God file...
Were I Elon I'd consider having some less experienced SW engineers earn their Keeper Badge by expanding the voice control options. Pretty much any screen input could be associated with a voice command. Even better, allow some latitude in wording so >2 ways of saying the same command would be "understood" by the voice input software and call the appropriate action as done from the screen.
Such as “turn on headlamps”…which still doesn’t work via voice command.