Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Exactly my thoughts. Ford Osborned their own e-Lightening until they install the NACS connection. (Why not wait on the announcement right?)

As a result, they will save money (reduce losses) while they retool/design for better margins. And if they go all in (castings, 48V etc...), this would be a great time to plan for FSD integration, or at least a pathway for a future intersect there.

You’re a hopeless dreamer, huh?

 

[insaneoctane]

This should absolutely be the top say.com question. I agree with you if it's just phrased as "How does Tesla benefit from these partnerships?" then the answer we will be given is Elon saying "We're not sure if we will benefit, but it seems like the right thing to do."

I'd prefer to see a question like "Zach, when will Tesla begin to recognize revenue from Supercharger network partnerships?". I think that improves the chances that we get an insight into whether there is any licensing agreement in place or if Tesla only intends to make money selling the energy. Or perhaps even ask that more directly "Are other OEMs paying Tesla directly for access to the Supercharge network?".

Or "Can you help justify the value proposition to investors that have funded well over $2B+ as an investment in an exclusive Supercharger network only to seemingly be opened to anyone willing to adopt the NACS? How do you convince current owners that the extra traffic won't compromise the experience on busy weekends and that investors are getting a fair ROI?"

 

[TesslaBull]

I just did a search on Autotrader for new Ford Mustang Mach-e. I assume not every new Mach-e available for sale is listed on Autotrader.

Search result turned this up for availability:

8,902

 

[Motor Mouth]

I just did a search on Autotrader for new Ford Mustang Mach-e. I assume not every new Mach-e available for sale is listed on Autotrader.

Search result turned this up for availability:

8,902

Honestly, I find this sad and pathetic. I would've wished Ford did a better job in build and pricing to move toward a sustainable alternative to Tesla's lineup for those consumers who (for whatever misguided reason) want to drive an EV but don't want a Tesla. In fact, the mission needs this from somebody. I thought Ford was closer to fulfilling this role. Seems like no US companies are close to capable of picking up any appreciable market share.

 

[unk45]

But it sort of backfired on them. They used a coolant that crystalized in the system clogging it. That required a recall where they flush the system, and replace the coolant with a different variety. A number of people waited as long as possible to go in for the recall so that their first battery coolant flush was covered for free by the recall.

"Replace low conductivity coolant" at every 40k miles is in the "factory required" section.

View attachment 953764

Indeed! Their plan, IIRC (I do) was to fulfill their obligation to make dealer service mandatory but they outsmarted themselves so it turned into a recall, even more profitable for the dealers. Never underestimate the greed of car dealers. Never!

 

[unk45]

Honestly, I find this sad and pathetic. I would've wished Ford did a better job in build and pricing to move toward a sustainable alternative to Tesla's lineup for those consumers who (for whatever misguided reason) want to drive an EV but don't want a Tesla. In fact, the mission needs this from somebody. I thought Ford was closer to fulfilling this role. Seems like no US companies are close to capable of picking up any appreciable market share.

There is a reason why Tesla chose direct sales and service. BTW, if anyone has access to complete auto dealer P&L including specific functional costs and revenues (this detail is never, afaik, publicly disclosed) the problems are self-evident.
First, in nearly every dealership in most countries, the product profitability is roughly in this order. I disclose no proprietary data:
F&I is the source of essentially all most dealer profits:
-extended warranty: typical markups are 100%, sometimes higher;
-Insurance( where offered): credit life: >150%; forced place: >200%;
-loans: rarely less than 300bp, except for very high credit;
-leases: varies widely but usually 400-500bp with capitalized cost including 'options' and residual values manipulated. These are massively profitable for dealers, mostly because even professionals can be scammed and never know.
-dealer options: They're called 'trash and trinkets' in F&I circles,
Warranty service is always highly profitable with diagnosis trumping (pun?) everything else in service,
Used car sales are invariably profitable but are driven also entirely by 'get-'em' done loans and leasing.
Everything else, including new car sales itself, is much less profitable. Cash sales with no trade are the loss-makers, so are usually avoided.

Keep all this in mind when complaining about Tesla customer service. The very best high-end dealers are very, very smooth but a;ways manage to convert as many customers as possible to leasing, precisely because smart people think they understand. They do not.

Tesla really cannot be compared to a dealer-modeled OEM because every single metric is structured differently and opaquely. Disclosure laws are invariably written by the culprits themselves.

This all is quite different when there are manufacturer-owned, separately incorporated, non-consolidated dealers. VAG has several quite stellar examples.
Some countries, such as South Korea, operate very differently. The tricks differ markedly when the distribution changes but the effects on buyers remain similar.

This post would be very much longer were Ito explain how advertising and promotion work in non-Tesla cases. That is entertaining and makes tons of money for the perpetrators. TV ads are the mother lode! They stay because of their profits to everyone except OEM customers and the shareholders. They do not know.


...Except for Tesla
...and buying through and financing with credit unions in the US and Canada, especially Quebec. That avoids most of the worst pitfalls.

 

[Stretch2727]

I just did a search on Autotrader for new Ford Mustang Mach-e. I assume not every new Mach-e available for sale is listed on Autotrader.

Search result turned this up for availability:

8,902

The official number from Ford is even worse. 16.4K.

Even though they don't own it the legacy manufacturers do track dealer stock closely.

https://s201.q4cdn.com/693218008/files/doc_news/2023/07/q2-2023-sales-final.pdf

 

[insaneoctane]

The official number from Ford is even worse. 16.4K.

Even though they don't own it the legacy manufacturers do track dealer stock closely.

https://s201.q4cdn.com/693218008/files/doc_news/2023/07/q2-2023-sales-final.pdf

View attachment 953799

How many of those 16K Mach-e are simply because the "dealer model" expects to have some inventory at each of the dealers? The Mach-e numbers are inline with most other vehicles on that list.

 

[bpjod]

I just did a search on Autotrader for new Ford Mustang Mach-e. I assume not every new Mach-e available for sale is listed on Autotrader.

Search result turned this up for availability:

8,902

The official number from Ford is even worse. 16.4K.

Just tried the AutoTrader trick for Canada. My piddly little farming town has 3 new Mach-es listed!!! Nationwide (Canada) we have 826 listed as new. 1,133 if I select for New, Used and Certified Pre-Owned. And that's just in AutoTrader. Unfortunately I don't know how to access the dealer numbers for Canada.

 

[Fred42]

And is also why I think they should retool the Lightning, ICE frame on up, and address costs in Mfg,

They are doing this. The new Lightning will be on the market in 2025.

and sell direct if at all possible at this later date.

Illegal and they will never get these laws changed.

 

[Stretch2727]

How many of those 16K Mach-e are simply because the "dealer model" expects to have some inventory at each of the dealers? The Mach-e numbers are inline with most other vehicles on that list.

Considering they only sold 9K units in Q2 2023 this is about 5.5 months of inventory. The other vehicles on that list have much higher run rates hence the larger numbers. 2 months is considered "Normal" for legacy.

Mach-e has been the vehicle most directly effected by the Model Y price reductions.

Edit: correct volume for q2 which was 9k not 11k.

 

[jerry33]

But it sort of backfired on them. They used a coolant that crystalized in the system clogging it. That required a recall where they flush the system, and replace the coolant with a different variety. A number of people waited as long as possible to go in for the recall so that their first battery coolant flush was covered for free by the recall.

"Replace low conductivity coolant" at every 40k miles is in the "factory required" section.

View attachment 953764

Doesn't that cut the dealers' oil change profits by 75%? It's been a long time since I had a gas car, but I recall oil change every 10K miles.

 

[unk45]

How many of those 16K Mach-e are simply because the "dealer model" expects to have some inventory at each of the dealers? The Mach-e numbers are inline with most other vehicles on that list.

Unless something changes quickly tat will continue to worsen. The kerfuffles are just beginning, or so it seems.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

many still believe Cybertruck will not get made.

I've come to the conclusion everyone believes the Cybertruck will get made. I believe this because of all the attempts I made to bet people on Twitter. The typical exchange is "I'm certain the CyberTruck will never get made and you are all fools for believing it will". I say, "Okay I bet it will. I'll bet you any amount of money you're comfortable with. If they haven't started delivering trucks within 3 years I'll pay up. When they start delivering within 3 years, you pay up." They immediately go from active posting to crickets. Every Single Time.

 

[Surfer of Life]

Or "Can you help justify the value proposition to investors that have funded well over $2B+ as an investment in an exclusive Supercharger network only to seemingly be opened to anyone willing to adopt the NACS? How do you convince current owners that the extra traffic won't compromise the experience on busy weekends and that investors are getting a fair ROI?"

Did Elon promise us exclusivity?

We’ve already hashed out the pros and cons of opening the network in this forum… Unless we’re asking it again for publicity purposes even though we know the answer??

 

[SOULPEDL]

Illegal and they will never get these laws changed.

Not going to pretend to be a lawyer, but I think Washington has some skin in this as well. Or do you really believe they'd stand by and watch them all sink? They can't channel through dealerships and survive in an EV future. It is illogical, both the law and the business model when maintenance is near zero.

 

[Yuha]

But it might get us down to three main "standards":

• CCS2
• NACS
• GB/T

CCS1 and CHAdeMO will likely be left to die. (CCS1 would have had a chance if CPO built out the network faster and had higher reliability.)

GB/T and CHAdeMO will be replaced by a new standard called ChaoJi, jointly developed by the Chinese and the Japanese (with a few other unofficial partners). Here's nice article on the background and development:
Project ChaoJi: the background and challenges of harmonising DC charging standards

 

[Knightshade]

Not going to pretend to be a lawyer, but I think Washington has some skin in this as well. Or do you really believe they'd stand by and watch them all sink? They can't channel through dealerships and survive in an EV future. It is illogical, both the law and the business model when maintenance is near zero.

This stuff mostly is regulated by the individual states- If a federal case could've been won on this Tesla would already be legal selling in all 50 states- and they're not- in fact they just recently had a federal case on this very topic tossed out by the court.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Just read somewhere in twitter land (sorry, lost the reference) that Tesla is considering putting Teslabots into Chinese stores as an experiment to see if it'll drive foot traffic. The units don't even have to work to drive traffic.

At some point, these things are going to be live (especially as Tesla is now hiring manufacturing engineers for them), and I, for one, will be lining up at my local store to ask it questions like explain to me how your actuators work. I'll probably get a response "Sure, but first, can I sign you up for a test drive?"

 

[SOULPEDL]

This stuff mostly is regulated by the individual states- If a federal case could've been won on this Tesla would already be legal selling in all 50 states- and they're not- in fact they just recently had a federal case on this very topic tossed out by the court.

They're screwed then.