Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

It didn't seem right to call it a bad spike.

 

[Krugerrand]

So yesterday we find out more US jobs - therefore 2 rate hikes this year. Bad for TSLA
Today, job payroll not so good - therefore only July rate hike required. Good for TSLA
Difficult to see a US recession now? Making Elon wrong - in a good way.
UK recession seems much more likely.

 

[Buckminster]

Mercedes has joined Tesla charging network.

 

[2daMoon]

View attachment 953966

"Vivacious" could be has been substituted for "Nice" as it works well enough without taking the enthusiasm so far as to attribute a more positive aspect than deserved for the meager gain it represented.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla is beginning to catch fire deliver the goods in Thailand

FTFY.

Cheers!

 

[2daMoon]

Compounded vivaciousness at the open?

 

[MP3Mike]

Mercedes has joined Tesla charging network.

Article here: Mercedes-Benz Expands Charging Options for Customers: Access to Tesla Supercharger Network in North America While Building Its Own High-Power Charging Network

most interesting part:

Mercedes-Benz adds to existing infrastructure with 2,500 high-power chargers in North America

In addition to ensuring compatibility with an expanded network of existing charging stations, Mercedes-Benz will establish its own High-Power Charging Network with more than 400 Charging Hubs, including more than 2,500 high-power chargers in North America by the end of the decade, together with its American partners. The first Mercedes-Benz Charging Hubs in North America will be opened by the end of 2023 and will be equipped with both CCS1 and NACS plugs.

So they are going to likely be the first partner to install NACS DC fast chargers? I wonder what equipment they will be using.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Very likely the new line will be more efficient, and as such will result in some people that will be let go.

... to make room for the Robots.
Wouldn't that be a pleasant surprise, although wishful at this stage. What will HR do in the future?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Governments pouring huge sums of money into battery factories is good news for the mission. Not everything has to have a tesla sign on the side of the building to be beneficial.

You know what would be good for the Mission? Government fast-tracking mining permits for battery materials in less than the current 10 years. Money does not beat NIMBYism, especially when the nimrods have their own $$$.

 

[Cobbler]

You know what would be good for the Mission? Government fast-tracking mining permits for battery materials in less than the current 10 years. Money does not beat NIMBYism, especially when the nimrods have their own $$$.

Any good plays you suggest in US based miners? Jervois mining? $JRV ?

 

[Artful Dodger]

...and note that 4680 technology has not been sent lock stock and barrel to China, yet.

Largely agree, and good take on the China 'new factory' situation overall, but I'd add this nuance on the 4680 cells. Model 2 will not use 4680s, it will be built with locally manufactured Chinese structural LFP packs (or LFMP as the chemistry improves), which are largely pouch cells.

The only vehicle Tesla is likely to produce in China that requires 4680s is the LR Semi. But I think in China the Std Rge Semi will be much more important for day-trips in large conurbations, and at the busy congested ports. Further, intramodal via train and ship is already a much bigger and more developed system in China, so there will be less need for LR Semi. Finally, it will be the placement and density of Tesla Megachargers that will determine the usefulness of LR vs. Std Rge Semi, so even that is still under the control of Tesla China.

TL;dr We many never see a Tesla 4680 plant in China (nor ever need one).

Cheers!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Why do people say this? Is there reliable information that this is true?

Here’s an article out today that states it as fact.

Tesla Giga Shanghai cuts workers from battery line: Report

Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai is laying off workers. The Tesla China layoffs specifically affect workers in the EV battery assembly line.

www.teslarati.com

 

[jerry33]

Any good plays you suggest in US based miners? Jervois mining? $JRV ?

TRAPPED | New Play Exchange

newplayexchange.org

 

[JoRoMo]

... to make room for the Robots.
Wouldn't that be a pleasant surprise, although wishful at this stage. What will HR do in the future?

RR.

 

[growler23]

Mercedes has joined Tesla charging network.

Oh man, someone generate a meme of Herbert Diess in front of the Board of VW....
"Miss me yet?"

 

[gtrplyr1]

Sold about 20% of TSLA in my IRA yesterday to go into RIVN. Tesla is far better as a company but TSLA has been a poor performer for a while. I'm still a TSLA long but I've decided that there are many other great opportunities out there and I need to make some moves to free up some $$. I was 100% TSLA in my Roth. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good and RIVN has been on a tear since I bought in yesterday.

I hate to say this but short term I feel RIVN is a much better place to park $$. I'm hoping we get some momentum after Cybertruck is released, so there is a lot to look forward to but, I'm not sure earnings will be a net positive for the stock as I'm concerned the market will only want to focus on margins. I'm sure Tesla will have a healthy beat on the the top and bottom line but if margins drop we could be in for a rocky few months.

Cheers to the longs.

 

[Stretch2727]

Some pretty good Cybertruck Videos cold weather testing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1677207961662545920

 

[Cosmacelf]

My suspicion from watching what has actually been happening is as follows (the Shanghai watchers can doubtless fill in the details) which has elements of both strategic and tactical decision making:

- Tesla dumped lots of earth on the land nearby the existing Shanghai factory, so as to preload the land in readiness for the construction of the next factory. Since Tesla Shanghai are already (by now, not then) doing 1m/yr the tentative conclusion is that the next chunk would be sized for another 1m/yr (whether one calls this a new factory or an expansion of the existing one does not matter hugely). That took place a couple of years ago and the land ought to be preloaded by now, sufficient that they could have started construction by now;
- Tesla was also wandering around China kicking the tyres on other locations for the next factory site, so as to keep everyone guessing and honest (whether this was a for-real exercise, or a Potemkin looksee is unclear);
- Tesla cell suppliers in China brought to market additional LFP capacity that enabled the existing Shanghai factory to reach capacity, and those cell suppliers continued to ramp;
- The 4680 cell ramp ran late and was in any case re-focussed towards Austin leaving Berlin with the possibility of a cell gap;
- So excess and core LFP was diverted from Shanghai towards Berlin, which meant that Shanghai was actually hobled in reaching full plateau production rate by a quarter or so. One has to look at the detail in the quarterly and monthly production rates to form this tentative conclusion (see below, and note that Fremont use of China packs has been likely fairly stable in this period*);
- But in the meantime the political winds inside of China (i.e. squeals from local BEV manufacturers that Tesla is obliterating them); and the rising political tension between China and USA (and wider West); and the related rise in US-protectionism (i.e. US-IRA acts etc) caused Tesla to think it wise not to put too many eggs in the China basket at this time, and therefore the decision was to delay the next China factory/expansion;
- And instead the decision was taken by Tesla to pull forwards the Mexico option so as to get a plant that was inside NAFTA (so fairly robust in specific US-IRA terms and more general nearshoring/friendshoring terms), cheap labour, easier coordination, and opens up the wider LatAm/Mercosur/AndeanPact markets;
- And the latest part of this 2-3 year evolving situation is that Tesla has likely reached near-plateau in Shanghai and has kept the lines full through pricing games, and can now assuage Beijing concerns over rapacious foreign capitalists eating the local pseudo-capitalist-statist lunch;
- and all along that cell supply constraint was real which is why the design of the model 2/Z platform has been delayed and delayed, meaning we are unsure what really the China design office has actually been doing for the bulk of their workload for the last few years;


- and that 2/Z will likely only really come to fruition in (say ??) 2025 when Mexico (Monterrey) starts production (insert your Elon time modifier of choice) .... and by then I strongly suspect the decision will also have been taken to make use of that land for the Shanghai expansion .... provided that in the meantime US-China relations have become somewhat steadier (note that the decision on this can possibly be delayed until after a US-election cycle so as to take any wildness into account, and by then Ukraine should have stabilised and the outcome of that - one way or the other - will mean that China is either risk-on or risk-off in rules-based-global-order terms).
- and note that 4680 technology has not been sent lock stock and barrel to China, yet.

That's just my 2c on watching the pattern.

*View attachment 953940

Ok, how does Shanghai laying off people assembling packs with LFP batteries sourced from LG and CATL fit into all this? Assuming this is true, of course.

Tesla Starts to Lay Off Some Battery Workers at China Factory

Tesla Inc. is laying off some electric-vehicle battery workers at its Shanghai plant, people familiar with the matter said, just as a bruising price war among manufacturers in China is showing signs of easing.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[SOULPEDL]

280 seems to be the focus... for now. Given no other news... That might come out soon...

 

[cliff harris]

Sold about 20% of TSLA in my IRA yesterday to go into RIVN. Tesla is far better as a company but TSLA has been a poor performer for a while. I'm still a TSLA long but I've decided that there are many other great opportunities out there and I need to make some moves to free up some $$. I was 100% TSLA in my Roth. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good and RIVN has been on a tear since I bought in yesterday.

I hate to say this but short term I feel RIVN is a much better place to park $$. I'm hoping we get some momentum after Cybertruck is released, so there is a lot to look forward to but, I'm not sure earnings will be a net positive for the stock as I'm concerned the market will only want to focus on margins. I'm sure Tesla will have a healthy beat on the the top and bottom line but if margins drop we could be in for a rocky few months.

Cheers to the longs.

Rivian make some great vehicles, there is no denying that. They also know how to make an electric truck that the masses will instantly like, there is little denying that. Rivian have some great technicians and some great engineers and designers. They understand branding too. People I know with a rivian absolutely love them.

But there is a big difference between the product and the company. I whine endlessly on here to anyone who will listen about parking sensors, FSD rollout, and a lack of some basic features in a Tesla. But speaking as an investor is very different. I don't buy shares in the company with the best product, I buy shares in the best company from a long term financial point of view.

I don't see how Rivian turn around their finances. They have shown no ability to get costs under control, and a failure to scale up at speed. The company looks fantastic right up until you look at the finances, then it looks horrendous. I don't think they will *actually* go bankrupt, because I see someone like GM/Ford/Toyota/VW will buy them out at a vast discount in a desperate bid to compete with Tesla, but that situation will be a bloodbath for investors.

I understand diversifying from TSLA, and am keen to do that from $300-400 a share with some of my stake, but Rivian aren't even in my top 100 stocks I'd shift capital to. YMMV.