Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Really the solutions are quite simple and specific IMHO.

1. tax all short sales including any made by market makers, say, 2% of security price when shorted, deducted from transaction at time of short initiation;
2. tax securities lending operations by taxing borrowers 3% of borrowed share value and lenders also 3%, each deducted at initiation date;
3. tax gains on shorted stock sale at mandatory 15% of gain, deducted from proceeds;

Those are wildly implausible in the present environment, although FDR would have liked it;

Good ideas, which all sound quite complicated (just the way tax accountants like it), also way above my pay grade...

You know what simple change might fix all the unfair advantages given to shortzes? Change the Clearing House rules so that shortzes don't get paid for selling until AFTER they buy to cover. Hold the funds until then, don't let them short positions exponentially based on the false assumption of "infinite liquidity" (that shortzes will always be able to buy any volume at the current spot price).

Note that it's this unhinged exponential which is the problem, as it's separate from reality.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[wipster]

A Freudian slip, subconsciously referencing how the truck should go on a diet?

Perhaps he needs to be enlightened...

 

[Artful Dodger]

This share price at this time is just absurd...

... one man's absurd is another man's egregious.

Did you notice that move was 'filling the gap'?

 

[wipster]

<snip>
We know cars and battery storage are set, but FSD and bots + share price will determine when I pull out.

I normally do that when I'm done...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I normally do that when I'm done...

He had posted <snip> so no need

 

[Ocelot]

You have lost it here. Tesla's HISTORICAL growth over the past 7.5 years is MORE than 50% (I challenge you to find out exactly what the HISTORY is for Tesla since the 2015 10-K). Report that number here, post charts if you dare.

Tesla right now has the most exciting new product roadmap of any megacap company. What to you have (other than incredulity) which indicates Tesla will not do exactly as they've said they will do in the future, as they have in the past?

Argument by analogy ("nobody's ever done that before") will not cut it with Tesla. Personally, I've been lucky: My 5.25 yr CAGR is 66.7% as of now (charts posted upthread). In fact, the BIGGEST difference between Tesla today vs Jan 01, 2016 (just before Model 3) is that Tesla no longer needs to go to the Market to raise cash. Indeed Tesla is printing $4B cash per quarter right now, and that's even while investing $8B/yr in CapEx FUTURE GROWTH.

So, please mark all of the following which you consider "unrealistic":

• Dojo production begining in July
• Cybertruck delivery event in Q3
• Model 3 "Highland" released in the $30K price range
• Megapacks 10K/yr in Lathrop in '23, + Shg in '24
• FSD Feature Complete within 18 mths (auto gross margins ↑ 15%)
• Optimus humanoid robot working in Tesla factories in 2024
• "Model 2" Compact car hits the streets in 2025, 2M/yr by 2026
• Semi production ramps to 100K/yr by 2026
• Compact car factories open in Asia and Europe by 2026
• Robotaxi's approved, total auto production hits 20M/yr by 2030
• all the while, COGS on existing products grind down -7%/yr due to:
  • 48v architecture
  • lower labor per unit
  • $1K drive line cost per car
  • Tesla battery + cathode production
  • unboxed process backfilled to current factories

Now, I've purposely kept this list short, so it doesn't include Auto Insurance, Home solar/battery w. charger + HVAC, a worldwide charging network, Electrical grid innovations, or AI training and Robotics services. But you should get the idea.

You really should. As should all TSLA investors.

Good luck!

Optimus working in 2024 in factories I would mark as unrealistic (in terms of replacing a human job).

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:
Project Dojo - the SaaS Product? Dojo online
Wiki - Falcon Super Heavy/Starship - General Development Discussion 20% more raptor power
Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot Rumour last week was that they are already working in Tesla factory

@TrendTrader007 Can I suggest you post here:
Super Bulls Only
The readers will be more open to your posts and I basically dedicated the thread to your leaving previously. The second word being your name.
I will be posting here more often as talking robotaxis and bots is where it is at.

 

[EVMeister]

According to "sources" on Twitter which may not be trustworthy or accurate (original Tweet, I think), the Cybertruck ramp starts today. Take this with the pinch or 69 of salt it requires.

 

[Mengy]

According to "sources" on Twitter which may not be trustworthy or accurate (original Tweet, I think), the Cybertruck ramp starts today. Take this with the pinch or 69 of salt it requires.

That sounds too good to be true, but MAN ALIVE if it is!!!!

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1678436662228172803

My understanding is that this completes 19th July and is not good for TSLA.

 

[Mengy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1678436662228172803

My understanding is that this completes 19th July and is not good for TSLA.

I would think this will lower the share prices of all the big seven, not just Tesla?

 

[AudubonB]

I am not a particular fan of posters bullying other posters to, for example, go away and post elsewhere. Were I to be particular, for example, about 2/3 of this thread's posts and close to 1/2 of its participants would be sent packing for posting -

• garbage
• yucks for yuckety-yuck's sake and no other
• numerological nonsense
• memes that do absolutely nothing either to augment the post itself or edify others
• repetition of far too-often demonstrated positions, points of view or opinions unreinforced by background material
• conspiracies
• items repeatedly warned by Moderators as being Off Topic

Or maybe I should do such anyway? Certainly would quickly fill up the electron trash bins

 

[EQC_]

Optimus working in 2024 in factories I would mark as unrealistic (in terms of replacing a human job).

There are various levels of human jobs, in terms of complexity for robot replacement...although most of the "simple tasks" I'm envisioning can be, and probably have been, replaced with automated systems that have no reason to look like a human. There are already automated systems and/or robots to read badges and verify faces at entry doors, or clean floors, or install a series of fasteners, or do some welding, or lift heavy things and move them from one place to another. I'm pretty curious about the benefits of a generalized human-shaped robot that can be trained to do a wide variety of things, versus individual bots more customized for each individual task.

That being said, in my mind, the first step toward a humanoid robot being useful in a factory is to exist-in and navigate the factory environment, without causing any problems. After that is achieved with 100% success for some time, then tasks to actually add value can be gradually increased.

Personally, I'd be impressed if 2024 brings us: Several Optimus bots routinely walk untethered around the entire factory, going every place that humans can go, perhaps merely monitoring and recording events, and NEVER EVER EVER tear off anybody's arms, knock humans into vats of molten metal, or hinder production.

 

[Stretch2727]

I would think this will lower the share prices of all the big seven, not just Tesla?

And that is exactly what happened except for Meta.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1678436662228172803

My understanding is that this completes 19th July and is not good for TSLA.

Given that TSLA is the lowest of the market caps in that group, theoretically, TSLA should be impacted the least from this.

But we all know that's not going to be the case

 

[Words of HABIT]

I would think this will lower the share prices of all the big seven, not just Tesla?

Exactly.

Fizzle: Seven of the top eight companies on Nasdaq 100 down strong while while NASDAQ was up +0.18%

Sizzle: EV stocks sans Tesla. FSR (+17.17%), NIO (+7.91%), LCID (+6.44%), RIVN (+3.28%). Only Lucid of those just mentioned is in the Nasdaq 100.

https://www.slickcharts.com/nasdaq100

Us holders care not, however the question for the options and short strokes guys is that will this trend continue until the rebalancing of the Nasdaq 100 is adjusted on July 24th. Time will tell.

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finance.yahoo.com

 

[Stretch2727]

There are various levels of human jobs, in terms of complexity for robot replacement...although most of the "simple tasks" I'm envisioning can be, and probably have been, replaced with automated systems that have no reason to look like a human. There are already automated systems and/or robots to read badges and verify faces at entry doors, or clean floors, or install a series of fasteners, or do some welding, or lift heavy things and move them from one place to another. I'm pretty curious about the benefits of a generalized human-shaped robot that can be trained to do a wide variety of things, versus individual bots more customized for each individual task.

That being said, in my mind, the first step toward a humanoid robot being useful in a factory is to exist-in and navigate the factory environment, without causing any problems. After that is achieved with 100% success for some time, then tasks to actually add value can be gradually increased.

Personally, I'd be impressed if 2024 brings us: Several Optimus bots routinely walk untethered around the entire factory, going every place that humans can go, perhaps merely monitoring and recording events, and NEVER EVER EVER tear off anybody's arms, knock humans into vats of molten metal, or hinder production.

One thing most people don't realize in factory automation is that in most cases the challenge for the robot is not the actual job task. The challenge is getting all the material to the right place and orienting/aligning it correctly. In a traditional robot cell the actual robot will be only 10-20% of the total cost. The material feeding systems typically are dedicated to a certain part and get very costly or may be handled by a human if the task is too complex to automate cost effectively.

One area where Optimus will likely be used first is unloading boxed/totes of material and setting up the parts to feed the automation. This is an area where either humans are used or the costs are pretty high. It will greatly lower the cost of automation and it many cases you still may have a dedicated machine doing the actual task for speed, quality or technical reasons.

 

[cliff harris]

One thing most people don't realize in factory automation is that in most cases the challenge for the robot is not the actual job task. The challenge is getting all the material to the right place and orienting/aligning it correctly. In a traditional robot cell the actual robot will be only 10-20% of the total cost. The material feeding systems typically are dedicated to a certain part and get very costly or may be handled by a human if the task is too complex to automate cost effectively.

One area where Optimus will likely be used first is unloading boxed/totes of material and setting up the parts to feed the automation. This is an area where either humans are used or the costs are pretty high. It will greatly lower the cost of automation and it many cases you still may have a dedicated machine doing the actual task for speed, quality or technical reasons.

YES this!
Optimus isnt going to take away any of the ABB or KUKA robots Tesla already use. They will be invaluable when it comes to unpacking, and placing stuff for those existing robots to use.
I think the stock-to-the-moon moment will be when an optimus can climb in the back of an open truck, carry out a box of components, open the box and unpack those components ready to place them for either robot or human operators to use.

I think we are a long away from that now, but I wouldn't be surprised to discover that Tesla already have a 'test case', of a particular 3rd party component that arrives in a jumbled box, or in fiddly packaging., that they are working on getting optimus to deal with.

I would also expect that they are already pre-emptively installing cameras at strategic places where components are unloaded, to capture as much training data regarding images/video of all the different ways headlights can be placed in a box on arrival etc

 

[MikeC]

Tesla Van leak? What do you all think?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1678509827981451265

“Leaked video of the secret Tesla van prototype designed for Elon Musk's Vegas Loop, from inside The Boring Company's Las Vegas headquarters”

 

[Christine69420]

Tesla Van leak? What do you all think?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1678509827981451265

“Leaked video of the secret Tesla van prototype designed for Elon Musk's Vegas Loop, from inside The Boring Company's Las Vegas headquarters”

It is a prototype of something. Could be a special van variant for Boring only.