I don't think you are cut out to hang out with us at TMC if you are trying to find something else to do other than watch the ticker!!! Prob should put you on probation for even typing that!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Well, it is obvious that I wasn't successful, and, here you are posting instead. At least I'll have company in detention.
Stone_Watcher
Member
Looks like another busy day for new supercharging locations. At least
The last flurry was only 10 days ago on July 3rd with 10 locations.
I won’t bother listing the new locations; they can be found on the official Tesla again Charging Twitter account.
Superchargers are going to be everywhere if this pace continues. I imagine the rate will only increase over the next 3-5 years until they are as ubiquitous as gas stations. But instead of splitting the revenue between Shell, Exxon Mobil, etc all the dollars can flow to Tesla.
Exciting times ahead!
Edit: Each Twitter refresh seems to produce a new location. I’ll keep refreshing
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Another thing pointing in Tesla's favor for the 2nd half of 2023 when it comes to their earnings......the US dollar
Calling @The Accountant . I believe Zach stated on Tesla's most recent earnings call was that the way currencies effect Tesla is on a YoY basis, not QoQ, like some of us originally believed. Thus if you look at Q1 2023, even though the Dollar was down significantly from Q4, it was still much higher than it was in Q1 of 2022. Which is way Tesla stated that Q1 earnings were still being impacted negatively by currency headwinds. Now, in Q2, if you look at the YoY, the Dollar will be slightly down.
So it might not be much of a tailwind in Q2. But....look into Q3 and Q4. Q3 and Q4 earnings might be blowout earnings from analyst expectations simply from currency tailwinds....major currency tailwinds.
Calling @The Accountant . I believe Zach stated on Tesla's most recent earnings call was that the way currencies effect Tesla is on a YoY basis, not QoQ, like some of us originally believed. Thus if you look at Q1 2023, even though the Dollar was down significantly from Q4, it was still much higher than it was in Q1 of 2022. Which is way Tesla stated that Q1 earnings were still being impacted negatively by currency headwinds. Now, in Q2, if you look at the YoY, the Dollar will be slightly down.
So it might not be much of a tailwind in Q2. But....look into Q3 and Q4. Q3 and Q4 earnings might be blowout earnings from analyst expectations simply from currency tailwinds....major currency tailwinds.
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@adiggs
take a glance at the US Energy Flow charts from 2010 and 2021 (11 years but hey, all I could find
(98,000 Trillion BTU energy is a bit more than 97.3 Quads but tuff to do in my head)
Solar .130 vs 1.5 (factor of vauguely 11
wind .920 vs 3.33 (factor of ~3.5)
Coal 21 vs 10.5 (div by 2)(50% _down)
Petro 36 vs 35, (down a tad but remember, EV's are 3-4x as efficient as ICE so that will accelerate)
(2021 is the most recent graph they have)
(I am unable to shrink the graphs so apologies there)
Also you can see increase in Nat Gas use
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But amazingly, society was still able to waste more energy than in 2010. hahaha. stupid humans. stupid fossil fuels.
notice generation of electricity by coal is down 50%.
then get BP Statistical Review of world energy excel sheet and look and Wind and PV gains since 2010 to present date
the slopes of the curves are getting more positive, and 1 EV's energy usage replaces 3-4 ICE vehicle
The Model 3 only had a single motor at first, so maybe they don't do the LR Tri-motor at first and decide to give Ford a fighting chance. 350-400 range could be enough initially. Anyone buying that would be in it for the show and tell or lighter duty. But I'm with you on the max range for towing (and charging a boat at the lake somehow).
MountainRatMat
Member
6-12 month window of $250-$350 is not sideways. If it gets to $350 in the next 6-12 months that would be a 26% increase in under a year. Most people would kill for those kinds of returns.
Us $TSLA investors are so jaded.
Well, I see the desire for a stock buyback has popped up again. Let’s see…… a plant in India, a plant in South Korea, something in Indonesia, something in Canada all maybes. A plant in Mexico, doubling Berlin, more in China, expansion in Nevada and spending money like a drunken sailor in Texas. Where do they get the money for a buyback? Tesla needs every dime they can scrape up to advance the cause.
The hope is that rates can come down allowing prices to inflate and that said goods inflation won't lead to higher rates again?
I don't think there is a scenario where car prices can ascend without eliciting a response from the central banks, an uptick in goods inflation will lead to higherer rates for longerer. And IMO this is a real risk right now in this year of strikes or borderline strikes with workers fighting for their slice of the profit pie and higher wages to combat the inflation, but companies need to not raise prices in response.
Disinflation here is effectively margin compression for corporations, wages need to go up and prices need to stay the same or come down. We just had a strike at a major port here in BC, UPS is currently gearing up for what could be the costliest strike in a century and there will be pressure from investors who want the company (and all the other companies out there) to maintain profit margins amid the labour cost increases.
The Fed will be keeping rates high for a lot longer than 2-3 months IMO, this will take a long time to play out.
I'd prefer a split. Not yet but when we hit $400 or 500. TSLA buys back shares and the shorts will just create more shares out of nothing to sell to drive down the SP.
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Krugerrand
Meow
Vehemently disagree. That would be Tesla being dumb.
1) Tesla has never cared to hype their SP. So, just no.
2) It’s not smart for Tesla to do what you suggest and why they’ve NEVER done it that way. Smart is CT to employees and to customers who live very close to Austin factory so any potential problems can easily be rectified, then expand outwards.
3) No extra hype needed for Tesla as the CT is already sold out for the first 2+ years. Dumb to specifically try and create hype and thus longer wait list.
Since Tesla is smart, they’ll ignore your idea.
We've gotten into this before. Unions do not make up that much of the workforce in the US. I posted statistic after statistics showing Union wages are non-material last time we had a back n forth about union strikes/wages.
Also, we just saw significant wage growth. Wage growth is above inflation growth now....and yet inflation kept dropping. Gee how can that be????
Oh right....because this inflation cycle was in fact a supply shortage induced inflation cycle.
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I believe the tipping point will occur at about 15%.Here's an article from Teslarati about Model Y holding its #1 spot this year, and mentions US BEV sales are now 7%, up from 4.6% at the same point last year. Tipping point? BAF?
Tesla Model Y registrations are surging in the United States: study
Americans registered twice as many Tesla Model Y crossovers year-over-year in the period between January and May 2023.www.teslarati.com
While Canadian winters are cold, their summers can be pretty darn hot, humid, and full of biting insects. Luckily(?) they are also short
It is of course not just unions who are seeing big pay increases, but I know what I see in my industry: unions set the precedence, and then non-union companies play catch up until they're back at parity.
It can definitely be a land of extremes, especially in the prairies! But that might smooth out too, I'm not sure how it would all be expected to work out.While Canadian winters are cold, their summers can be pretty darn hot, humid, and full of biting insects. Luckily(?) they are also short
Nothing like going from -40 Celsius to +40 in the same year.
Drumheller
Active Member
I don't believe the govt numbers on inflation or wages. First, because the govt keeps going back and revising numbers a few months later when less people are paying attention. Second, the govt numbers don't match what I'm seeing in my professional circles or my social circles. I manage teams in software development. No one is getting the wage growth I see claims of. Go post that elsewhere online and watch the responses. It isn't real for the majority. Inflation has also been worse than reported. House prices are rising here again. Food prices are still rising here as well. Etc.
I don't think Tesla will do a stock buyback anytime soon. I believe Elon still considers a hard recession a strong possibility and I think Tesla will hang onto cash. I also see Tesla pushing harder to sell vehicles than I've witnessed in the past. I've had several texts regarding trying to talk me into buying a Model S. I've also received more emails from Tesla in the past few months than in any past equivalent time.
I hope things get better and the economy improves. As it is, the working class are hurting.
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