Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FireMedic]

Me as well but if they are cell constrained it could be for now.

I’d be good with that. Frankly, my Tesla habit is a bit consuming; and hitting above my weight if I want to keep all my shares. Probably better for my bank accounts if the 350 mile version is the only one available. Otherwise I WILL “find” the money for the tri-motor version.

I just want one!

 

[kbM3]

Btw 250k/year is Elon's definition of volume production as this is 5k/week+downtime. It doesn't really say anything about projected sales. If Tesla is keeping this product at 250k/year while demand far exceeds demand tells me they are projecting a battery shortage in 2 years. So most likely they will cap CT at this volume as it takes a stupid number of batteries and sell high margin version while making the single motor version disappear from the menu.

In 2 years Mexico is suppose to be up and running with the 25k high volume car needing batteries. Megapack is at full ramp by then as well as Semi.

So to me Tesla is projecting a bottle neck in 2 years time. We will see how they maneuver out of the situation. I think they are being conservative with their lithium refinery (which will be done in 2 years) not producing as expect since it's their first time getting into that market.

Everyone needs to remember that when CT was announced, Musk projected that world wide demand for 3/Y would be around 500k/year, not 2M/year. CT was suppose to fill the void to 2M but got pushed way back due to 3/Y demand. When Musk on earnings call said "we will build the same or less cars if we push out our new products due to battery shortage" tells you that his projection of battery usage by 2021 was right on, however not the product mix he predicted.

You’re remembering wrong on 3/Y predicted volume. From the earliest days Elon predicted 500k / year for Model 3 alone. And from very early on he predicted 2M for 3/Y combined.

 

[Thekiwi]

Elon has toned it down a lot and has been humbled by Tesla's road to autonomy. He has said many times "turns out to be a lot harder than we expected". This is the first time I hear him say "it's a lot easier than we expected". This is not something anyone would say without the answer...wtf is going on?

Some cocky mathematician can look at a problem and in the middle of solving it can say "I consider this solved"...and then hit a brick wall. Only the guy who has solved it would say "well turns out that was easier than I expected".

Maybe they realized there are some big shortcuts to the march of 9s.

Brute force hard-coding intersections maybe an example. Intersections rarely ever change layout/markings, so hard coding every intersection in USA one time (and thereafter only when a change is reported by fleet data) could be a valid option that might eliminate many current disengagement events. The difference between this approach and that of Waymo etc, is that when a change to an intersection occurs, Tesla FSD can fall back to its non hard coded abilities to navigate it as best it can.

The above is purely hypothetical guess from me to be clear. Just trying to point out what a “simple” move might be that reduces complexity of perfecting FSD.

For instance after that Dan O’Dowd stop sign saga a few weeks back, where Tesla eliminated the issue by simply hard coding that particularly troublesome intersection, maybe they could have questioned why not simply do that for every other troublesome intersection?

 

[Thekiwi]

It seems this is Q1 data - based on a match on the number of TSLA shares that Blackrock bought in Q1 (930k). In which case, meh - we'll have to wait for a few more days for Q2 13Fs

13Fs arent required to be filed until 45 days after quarter end, so we wont see most of the Q2 filings until mid-August.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

You’re remembering wrong on 3/Y predicted volume. From the earliest days Elon predicted 500k / year for Model 3 alone. And from very early on he predicted 2M for 3/Y combined.

The 500k number was probably from when Elon believed fremont production would reach those numbers.

Tech crunch article that mentions it.

 

[Thekiwi]

I think Toyota wastes too much time on the environmental aspects of EV's. They never seemed to recognize that they just are better cars.

My neighbor has a beautiful Lexus LS. Every time I walk past it, I think why is that thing not an EV more than 10 years after the Model S. My opinion is it's premium in every way except for the drivetrain.

Toyota/japan bet wrong on Hydrogen. Everything you see now is probably a cope to deal with that. They are a decade behind setting up battery supply infrastructure, and as such are taking the dual approach to try and keep there ICE sales up with both an attempt to ridicule current EV tech as non-performant and/or somehow bad for the environment, while at the same time also trying to say its magic beans solid state batteries that are 5 years away from release (at best) are way better than current EVs so don’t bother buying one of them.

 

[Thekiwi]

Not sure why everyone is getting their knickers in a twist over a supposed 350 mile range cybertruck at launch.

Remember the original launch lineup was:

Single motor - 250m+ range
Dual Motor - 300m+ range
Tri-Motor - 500m+ range

So I don’t see how a potential launch model having 350 mile range is somehow a massive fail. That is better range than the mid range dual motor variant was initially stated as having.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680242871503409152

Sure hope this rumor is not true. One reason I reserved the CT was the 500 miles range.

Yah. Us too. We’ll wait for the longer range.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Not sure why everyone is getting their knickers in a twist over a supposed 350 mile range cybertruck at launch.

Remember the original launch lineup was:

Single motor - 250m+ range
Dual Motor - 300m+ range
Tri-Motor - 500m+ range

So I don’t see how a potential launch model having 350 mile range is somehow a massive fail. That is better range than the mid range dual motor variant was initially stated as having.

Only an issue if the 500 mile is off the table.

 

[Knightshade]

For all the nobody gonna buy a truck with only 350 miles of range because TOWING folks-

75 percent of truck owners use their truck for towing one time a year or less (meaning, never). Nearly 70 percent of truck owners go off-road one time a year or less

It'd be years before Tesla made enough CTs just to fill orders from folks who never tow.

So starting production with the mid-range truck to capture more IRA credits seems like a much smarter move, regardless of if/when a 500 mile one comes along.... (especially if the 500 mile one would be north of 80 and miss out on the credits entirely)

From:

You Don't Need A Full-Size Pickup Truck, You Need a Cowboy Costume

The full-size pickup truck has become America's best-selling vehicle by a country mile. But most Silverado, Ram, and F-Series buyers would be better served with a cheaper means of role-playing.

www.thedrive.com

 

[Mengy]

For all the nobody gonna buy a truck with only 350 miles of range because TOWING folks-




It'd be years before Tesla made enough CTs just to fill orders from folks who never tow.

I'm not so sure. If the Chevy Silverado EV does launch with a 400 mile range (like GM claims) and the CT launches with only a 350 mile range, well that could be bad for anyone who DOES want to tow with their EV truck. By bad I mean it could hurt CT sales. Not at first because it will be new and early adopters will eat them up, but in time the Silverado could emerge as the "EV truck for towing" if it has a superior range to the CT.

Range is king when it comes to EV towing.

 

[Beltsbear]

That would make it completely worthless to tow with, unless you stay local.

Every one I know who actually tows big stuff, tows it 40 miles or less. That is mostly equipment and boats. yes, I know 1 in 30 tow mobile homes but that is not a major market segment. 350 miles is good for for more people than Tesla can build for in the next three years.

 

[AudubonB]

The Logic Police are taking down names of all those CT range apologists for committing Logical Fallacies, and just might be issuing Summonses shortly. This has been going on since Unveiling Day +1....or even earlier. That's meant plenty of time for the miscreants to learn logic....or to pay out even more Illogical Rope with which to hang themselves.

 

[MC3OZ]

So, what you are saying is that they shouldn't call it autopilot because it cannot fly like an airplane?

The primary difference between the CT and the Y design is the much thicker Stainless Steel exterior, which, by comparison to traditional cosmetic panels could and should be considered exo-skeletal, even when built upon an endo-skeletal framework.

When the bent stainless steel is designed to be more than only a superficial skin for the vehicle, that is enough in my book to meet the definition of being exo-skeletal. It seems it is not enough for you. That is fine. Potato, potahto.

The one doesn't take away from the other in any way. There is no rule that says it must be an either/or proposition. What leads you to believe it cannot be both?

Watch the reveal where they hit the traditional door, then hit the CT door and let me know which one comes closer to meeting the definition of the skin of the vehicle being exo-skeletal more like bone than it is like skin.

From what I got out of the reveal, the CT design goals were to:

• simplify the production line in order to reduce costs;
• bring in a vehicle with a Blade Runner style employing simple, yet strong, unpainted bent panels;
• offer a truly tough, long-lasting truck that resists the sort of common damage (dents, scratched paint, etc.) that traditional ICE pickups quickly acquire from use in a working environment.

The CT differentiates itself from the run-of-the-mill by being a truck that should be much easier to build and will last decades because of these design parameters.

I hope to see a van and a car from Tesla built using the same techniques.

A Munro teardown of a CT will provide good answers to many of these questions.

I expect that the Munro team will be impressed, and that some of the design decisions will have been taken for multiple reasons.

In particular, I expect that the exo-skeleton will make "some contribution" to towing and hauling, in addition to reducing costs and being a tough long lasting, low maintenance exterior.

 

[jerry33]

Not sure why everyone is getting their knickers in a twist over a supposed 350 mile range cybertruck at launch.

Remember the original launch lineup was:

Single motor - 250m+ range
Dual Motor - 300m+ range
Tri-Motor - 500m+ range

So I don’t see how a potential launch model having 350 mile range is somehow a massive fail. That is better range than the mid range dual motor variant was initially stated as having.

80% of the reason I made a reservation was the 500 mile range. 350 miles adds nothing to the current X.

 

[MC3OZ]

80% of the reason I made a reservation was the 500 mile range. 350 miles adds nothing to the current X.

Are we talking range while towing or hauling or range with very light loads?

There will be a big difference, IMO to achieve decent range while towing the range while driving with very light loads might be quite good.

I am not expecting CT to defy the law of physics while towing, so it needs a large enough battery to make it between Supercharger stops, and fast enough charging to be convenient.

The maximum I expect most people towing would want to do is 2 Super charger stops for 20-30 mins on an 8-9 hour trip.

Say 8-9 hours averaging 55 miles per hour, covering say 450-500 miles per day. I think that is what they would like to achieve.

So ideally a CT set up for long distance towing can travel at least 250 miles between charging stops while towing. 200 Miles is less than ideal, but might be acceptable.

The first model available might not have the ideal towing range.

A longer range vehicle suitable for towing might depend on the 4680 ramp, which may in turn be dependent on things like Lithium refining.
Hopefully if the initial vehicle has a shorter range, they provide a rough timeline for the longer range version.

 

[SarahsDad]

Sure hope this rumor is not true. One reason I reserved the CT was the 500 miles range.

Feels like Déjà Vu. I'd reserved the 520 mile range Model S Plaid Plus. Was initially pissed when it got cancelled. But got a "regular" Plaid instead and turns out I couldn't be happier. Plenty of range for road trips. But of course I don't tow with it.

Elon Musk Says the Tesla Model S Plaid Plus Is Canceled

Tesla Model S Plaid Plus canceled, Elon Musk says on Twitter, but cancellation could fuel rumors of technical issues with a new battery type.

www.autoweek.com

 

[ggies07]

For those interested: tomorrow night JB will be giving a presentation. Online ticket is only $5.

JB Straubel on Tesla, Redwood Materials and Building a Better Battery Supply Chain | Climate One

Demand for lithium ion batteries is expected to grow 500% by 2030, and the race for raw materials is on. Lithium mines around the world are opening or expanding, while children as young as six in the Congo carry sacks of cobalt-laced rocks on their backs for less than $2 a day. Recycling...

www.climateone.org

 

[Thekiwi]

80% of the reason I made a reservation was the 500 mile range. 350 miles adds nothing to the current X.

Is anyone saying the 500 mile option has been cancelled? (Honest question)

 

[Drumheller]

For all the nobody gonna buy a truck with only 350 miles of range because TOWING folks-

First, this discussion started by a rumor spread by a name I don't recognize. As of now, I consider it just a rumor

Second, I reserved the top trim cybertruck because of the estimated range. As I've mentioned previously, my real world range in good weather with my long range model Y is about 220 miles. In the heat of Phoenix summer, 115F days, the cooling systems run non stop and my real range drops below 200 miles. The difference between real world range and EPA estimate for Model Y is my only disappointment with it. I did recently ask a deeper level support to take a look at my vehicle to ensure something isn't wrong... nope that's real world usage.

I doubt I will tow often with the cybertruck, if ever, but I like to do road trips and I like to go off the beaten path. Range is king. If I get comparible real world to EPA from the Model Y Long Range, 220 / 326 = about 67.5% 500 * .675 = 337 miles of real range.

If the cybertruck gets revised to a max of 350 EPA miles, I think I will change my mind on buying one.