Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StapleGun]

Consensus/analyst estimates, with data on margin of error in recent quarters, for anyone who cares

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681428023634198532

Generous of him not to multiply his error in Q1 2023 by 3 given the price split 3-for-1 before Q1 earnings. So an error of 4 cents was equal to an error of 12 cents in all other quarters. If he did the math honestly @tesladaily and Honey Jam would have similar error rates and he would be 1 cent better than wall street.

 

[jerry33]

A.

And Tesla's energy graphing could be used to prove this by driving the same route under similar conditions, in the same car, and reporting the data.

But windows open kills aerodynamics, much more so than range lost to A/C utilization.

Unless you are going very slow and the windows are only open 30-50 mm.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Xpeng is copying so fast I feel like someone at Tesla is passing them notes daily.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681419874319622144

You write that as if you think it isn't true? Of course they're furiously copying Tesla, that was the devil's bargain to allow Tesla to own their factory in China. Unspoken (shh!), of course.

Won't matter, Tesla has tons of other innovations that are harder to copy.

I find it hilarious that the (copied, stolen) soundtrack is an instrumental version of "Staying Alive"!

 

[Cosmacelf]

I did it. I fully paid off my margin.

I really hated letting go of shares that I know will be worth > $1k each (and were worth > $400 at the peak) for only $293, but it gives a far greater sense of security.

Considering, I’m no longer working, being > 100% invested in Tesla was crazy! I was not at very high margin when we peaked at $4xx per share, but I bought more and increased it on the way down. It got pretty scary when we got down to $107 last year. Had it gone down below $80, I would have had margin calls and had to to sell nearly half of my position or risk losing my retirement altogether.

I know I won’t do as well in the long run, but I don’t want that stress anymore (or smaller monthly budgets). Life’s too short.

So yes margin paid off for me, but at my age, trading a year or more of very high stress for more money later in life was not wise.

Still ~90% Tesla, but I plan to reduce that gradually over time.

You learned a lot, have the gray hairs to prove it, and you still made money from it all. Win win!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Timing is impeccable:

Fatal Tesla crash in California draws federal investigators to site of head-on collision

A fatal crash involving a Tesla in California has drawn the attention of federal investigators, who sent a team to the site of the collision in South Lake Tahoe. A Tesla Model 3 and Subaru Impreza collided head on during the evening of July 5, according to state police, and the driver of the...

finance.yahoo.com

The usual drive by smear implying by association that autopilot MAY have been involved. Sigh.

 

[SunCatcher]

Troy at $0.80:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681432630842253312

Is there a way to tell from this chart what Tesla's net profit might be at the end of Q2? How much is added to Tesla's coffers? And what then will their cash reserves be?

 

[EQC_]

Which begs the question- which gives us the best least bad mileage:?

A- Windows closed, A/C on
B- A/C off, windows open
C- AC on AND Windows open

D - Toughen up. Windows Closed, A/C off.

* I used to actually do this occasionally on hot summer days for my hour-plus commute home, southern CA desert area, in my ICE car. I think I'd usually turn on the vent fan, but not the AC. Might have also tried it with the fan off a few times. I'd also do similar in the winter, leaving home on 20-degree mornings and never turn the heater on. Warmth when needed was gloves and a beanie, but usually a short sleeve shirt. Didn't notice any improvement in MPG...mostly did it for the "fun" of it.

 

[Knightshade]

Generous of him not to multiply his error in Q1 2023 by 3 given the price split 3-for-1 before Q1 earnings. So an error of 4 cents was equal to an error of 12 cents in all other quarters. If he did the math honestly @tesladaily and Honey Jam would have similar error rates and he would be 1 cent better than wall street.

@Troy care to clarify?

 

[wipster]

Which begs the question- which gives us the best least bad mileage:?

A- Windows closed, A/C on
B- A/C off, windows open
C- AC on AND Windows open

A, post heat pump that is...

 

[Prunesquallor]

I did it. I fully paid off my margin.

I really hated letting go of shares that I know will be worth > $1k each (and were worth > $400 at the peak) for only $293, but it gives a far greater sense of security.

Considering, I’m no longer working, being > 100% invested in Tesla was crazy! I was not at very high margin when we peaked at $4xx per share, but I bought more and increased it on the way down. It got pretty scary when we got down to $107 last year. Had it gone down below $80, I would have had margin calls and had to to sell nearly half of my position or risk losing my retirement altogether.

I know I won’t do as well in the long run, but I don’t want that stress anymore (or smaller monthly budgets). Life’s too short.

So yes margin paid off for me, but at my age, trading a year or more of very high stress for more money later in life was not wise.

Still ~90% Tesla, but I plan to reduce that gradually over time.

I’m there with ya. I swore I’d take some profits if we made it back to $300. Got a SBLOC that’s not so low interest anymore along with some other loans. Good news-it will only take around 5% of my TSLA. Bad news- taxes.

 

[Troy]

Generous of him not to multiply his error in Q1 2023 by 3 given the price split 3-for-1 before Q1 earnings. So an error of 4 cents was equal to an error of 12 cents in all other quarters. If he did the math honestly @tesladaily and Honey Jam would have similar error rates and he would be 1 cent better than wall street.

Tesla's 3 for 1 stock split happened on August 25, 2022. There is nothing to multiply or change in any of these quarters:

• Q3 2022
• Q4 2022
• Q1 2023

These 3 quarters happened after the stock split. However, Q2 2022 happened before the stock split. Therefore all estimates and errors by all analysts for Q2 2022 are divided by 3 to make them comparable to more recent quarters, Tesla does the same.
Tesla's shareholder letter used to say that the EPS for Q2 2022 was $2.27 but more recent shareholder letters show $0.76. In other words, Tesla is dividing the 2.27 by 3 and showing us what the EPS would have been with the current share count.

That makes perfect sense because EPS did not suddenly drop from $2.27 in Q2 2022 to $1.05 in Q3 2022.

We are not multiplying the current EPS numbers and current estimates or errors by 3. They stay the same. Instead, the actual EPS number and all estimates and errors for Q2 2022 by all retail analysts are divided by 3 to make that quarter comparable to more recent quarters. The actual number for Q2 2022 was $2.27 at the time but it's now $0.76.

 

[The Accountant]

Is there a way to tell from this chart what Tesla's net profit might be at the end of Q2? How much is added to Tesla's coffers? And what then will their cash reserves be?

Troy does not provide a Cash Flow projection but a back of the envelope calculation based on his $2,779 Net Income would be:

$2,779m Net Income
+ 423m Stock Based Comp
+1,100m Depreciation
-1,200m Working Capital
$3,100m Cash from Operation
-2,100m Capital Expenditure
$1,000m Free Cash flow
- 500m Repayment of vehicle financing
$ 500m Increase in Cash Balance

I can be wildly off but in theory they could add $500m to their cash balance.

 

[Etna]

Walter Isaacson on the origins of Cybertruck:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681304525767086085

 

[The Accountant]

Q2 Estimates:

 

[navguy12]

Xpeng is copying so fast I feel like someone at Tesla is passing them notes daily.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681419874319622144

Only oversight: disco versus techno pop for background music.

 

[WattsHappening]

Evening prior to earnings. Once again, I'm reminded there is no better reality TV than Tesla and TSLA.

As usual, I feel like a kid on Christmas Eve, giddy with anticipation. I just hope Santa doesn't bring us a lump of coals (patting myself on the back for this analogy).

 

[The Accountant]

Troy does not provide a Cash Flow projection but a back of the envelope calculation based on his $2,779 Net Income would be:

$2,779m Net Income
+ 423m Stock Based Comp
+1,100m Depreciation
-1,200m Working Capital
$3,100m Cash from Operation
-2,100m Capital Expenditure
$1,000m Free Cash flow
- 500m Repayment of vehicle financing
$ 500m Increase in Cash Balance

I can be wildly off but in theory they could add $500m to their cash balance.

Correction: I started with the wrong number. Cash increase would be around $80m

$2,356m Net Income (GAAP)
+ 423m Stock Based Comp
+1,100m Depreciation
-1,200m Working Capital
$2,680m Cash from Operation
-2,100m Capital Expenditure
$ 580m Free Cash flow
- 500m Repayment of vehicle financing
$ 80m Increase in Cash Balance

 

[WattsHappening]

Correction: I started with the wrong number. Cash increase would be around $80m

$2,356m Net Income (GAAP)
+ 423m Stock Based Comp
+1,100m Depreciation
-1,200m Working Capital
$2,680m Cash from Operation
-2,100m Capital Expenditure
$ 580m Free Cash flow
- 500m Repayment of vehicle financing
$ 80m Increase in Cash Balance

It's great to see you back here. I know I'm speaking for everyone when I say we are looking forward to your quarterly forecasts going forward.

 

[EldestOyster]

You write that as if you think it isn't true? Of course they're furiously copying Tesla, that was the devil's bargain to allow Tesla to own their factory in China. Unspoken (shh!), of course.

Not really the devil's bargain.
Competitive EV is not the enemy.
ICE is the enemy.

Once upon a time, Tesla hoped the U.S. carmakers would do this.
Review quote below.

 

[EldestOyster]

I did it. I fully paid off my margin.

I really hated letting go of shares that I know will be worth > $1k each (and were worth > $400 at the peak) for only $293, but it gives a far greater sense of security.

Considering, I’m no longer working, being > 100% invested in Tesla was crazy! I was not at very high margin when we peaked at $4xx per share, but I bought more and increased it on the way down. It got pretty scary when we got down to $107 last year. Had it gone down below $80, I would have had margin calls and had to to sell nearly half of my position or risk losing my retirement altogether.

I know I won’t do as well in the long run, but I don’t want that stress anymore (or smaller monthly budgets). Life’s too short.

So yes margin paid off for me, but at my age, trading a year or more of very high stress for more money later in life was not wise.

Still ~90% Tesla, but I plan to reduce that gradually over time.

I'm optimistic that you paid less than 293 for those shares. In which case, you worked it well.
Consider how much better this sale is than being forced to sell twice as many at $180, (or 3x at $90), which is a common fate.
As you reduce your holdings, that turns into cash (or yes, other investments) which makes the "unbalanced portfolio" seem a lot less important.
Unless it's one's hobby, being the one to die with the most $$ isn't really the goal (and they don't give awards for it anyway).

A toast to you and freedom from that stress.