Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

A third update from Tobias:

View attachment 957700

In the south-east they will also add another cell production building as well as another building for drive units and battery packs.
- Green is part of the first partical permit
- Yellow will be the second partial permit
- Red will be the third partial permit

Source:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681681589380567041

I would like to take this moment to thank Tesla mgmt for having the vision to create more parking lots to park all the unsold vehicles! /s

Exciting!

 

[jkirkwood001]

...Speaking of which, who did that really useful and fun bingo card last time?

Paging @Buckminster

 

[AudubonB]

Nailed it!. Love that immense parking garage, too.

More info about the Giga Berlin extension:

The top half of the new building will be for production.
The bottom half will be for storage and logistics.
And between those there will be a logistics tunnel.
On the roof there will be parking for 7300 cars.

 

[Fred42]

One of the most interesting things I see is that Tesla is starting with battery recycling in Berlin.
In that way not only taking care of it’s own environmental footprint, but directly addressing the need for battery materials at the same time.
Kudos for Tesla here!

Are they really going to do battery recycling on this site? I had guessed that was a mistranslation for battery production. They are cramming so much into this site, and battery recycling could be done elsewhere.

 

[Causalien]

btw, is there a place that you guys go to XXXXXX about tsla that doesn't require it being good quality content? Preferably a chat room.

What there IS is an adamantine rule regarding pottymouthed posting here. New around here, are you?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

btw, is there a place that you guys go to about tsla that doesn't require it being good quality content? Preferably a chat room.

I think there's this site called reddit where tesla content is questionable at best.

 

[FireMedic]

hoping for CT release date info, maybe pricing today. would also love an update on tesla insurance particularly in Florida which has been delayed for some time. cheers to all the longs!

Is there any precedent for that? None that I can recall…but I only converted to the church of Elon in 2017…so I missed a lot of important context.

 

[EQC_]

Totally Agree!

He is me lol

2500 cells for 216 kWh, 887 kg in cells and at $100/kWh it is $21600 in cells alone

We can also try to extrapolate pack weight from the ratio of cells to pack weight from other Tesla vehicles, which is around 1.4, so 1240 kg or 2733 lbs, thick boy

With more recent discussions it might be possible that Tesla can get to 500 miles with a sub 200 kWh pack. Model X is rated at 287 Wh/mi EPA, and with recent pictures side by side I think it's fair that assume Cybertruck will consume 25% more, or 360 Wh/mi EPA, which would mean a 180 kWh pack for 500 miles of range

Just as a bit more data for the comparison above, Model S has 15% less frontal area and it's 15% more efficient, there is also a 9% weight difference built into that

Cybertruck has around 11% more frontal area than a Model X, add more weight and worse drag coefficient and 25% more consumption seems reasonable if not quite conservative

All in all, if they can do 180 kWh, improve cell to pack weight ratio and get the 4680s cost down to $70/kWh, the pack might weight as "little" 960 kg or 2116 lbs and cost $12600 in cells

Add the $45/kWh IRA credit at a 500 mile Cybertruck pack might cost Tesla less than $5000, even if there is none of the improvement above and the pack ends up being huge, the credits will still make it costing less than $12000 in cells

Seems reasonable to sell that for $80k, or at least makes me confident that the lower range version but not the lowest will be bellow the $80k cap for the IRA credit

Totally Agree! I don't remember the exact Model S timeline...but wasn't there a time when the 85kWh battery back was estimated to be at least $20-$25K and Tesla was making a profit selling those cars starting at about $80K?

Given 10 more years of company advancement and efficiency and economies of scale, seems quite reasonable that a 500 mile Cybertruck could be sold profitably for under $80K even if it is a $25K pack...and even more reasonable considering all the extra battery and pack production credits as you noted.

 

[FireMedic]

Paging @Papafox …how in the world am I to understand what transpired without your daily analysis…and on such an important day.

We (I) am lost without your wisdom. Hope we didn’t confuse you with all of that discussion about towing range requirements and passing lane versus fast lane discussion .

 

[EQC_]

More info about the Giga Berlin extension:

...

I think there was a post yesterday noting that a new supercharger install permit noted something called a "CyberCanopy".

Looking at your image...CyberCanopy secured?

 

[ThisStockGood]

Somebody knows something..?

Or is it only the case when stock moves upwards?

/s

 

[SOULPEDL]

Eps estimates are quite mediocre, nonetheless the stock
rallies into the report. It goes to show how unpredictable
the short term price action is. We need all the cushion
we can get.

There's enough foreshadowing to recognize a potential bear attack (Max Pain, Head-on, ARK yesterday, and Margins of course). OTOH, it could be a trap with any number of reveals, big tech or otherwise at the Earnings Conf.

The scenario I see is that there are a bunch of day traders latched on to today's peak and about to dump it. (And I just had to run an errand only to notice today's sell-off after I wrote that, lol).

Continuing... I sold a bit more at yesterday's peak as well as today's within a point, which gives me some "cushion" to either survive a long downturn in the macro or buy some more tomorrow, or do nothing and pay off more debt. Having all the rest in TSLA is still the insurance long game, no options still. 100% Tesla and some cash.

Of course, I could have left it alone in case Tesla rocks the world in new ways today, or even if it stays flat only to continue to rise. In that case, don't listen to me as this was the wrong advise - YMMV.

Anyway, good luck everyone!

 

[kpanda17]

Guys, sorry if you answered already

What are the critical times today for TLSA?

2023 Q2 earnings

 

[elasalle]

Just the messenger ...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681702582543056907

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679907086614790146

 

[Cult Member]

Paging @Papafox …how in the world am I to understand what transpired without your daily analysis…and on such an important day.

We (I) am lost without your wisdom. Hope we didn’t confuse you with all of that discussion about towing range requirements and passing lane versus fast lane discussion .

Your plea was heard!

 

[mongo]

You think 4680 ramp is to the point it can support 222 kwh battery packs for a vehicle selling in volume in 2024 (in addition to its increasing use in Y structural packs)?

Number_of_lines = cellsNeeded/ Cells_Per_Line
Only constraints are lead time and floor space (and that is addressable)

They just received a bunch of Schuler stamping equipment... it ain't for soda cans.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Number_of_lines = cellsNeeded/ Cells_Per_Line
Only constraints are lead time and floor space (and that is addressable)

They just received a bunch of Schuler stamping equipment... it ain't for soda cans.

An announcement like "The 4680 Fix" would be welcome news. That affects ramps and margins, along with the long riding overhang on Tesla. But I don't recall Wall St. invest in TSLA without actual numbers (not so much on forecasts). So if solved and the next unit sold has better margins or something, today, then SP could take notice. I doubt they're ready to announce CT margins, but who know, would be a teaser without the actual price known still.

 

[MP3Mike]

Are they really going to do battery recycling on this site? I had guessed that was a mistranslation for battery production. They are cramming so much into this site, and battery recycling could be done elsewhere.

By that logic why build motors on-site, that can be done elsewhere. Why do stamping on-site, that can be done elsewhere.... (This is like the legacy OEMs thinking, why do it ourselves, just outsource it.)

If you have room on-site, why would you pay to transport the materials somewhere else to be recycled and then pay to transport the recycled materials back again to be used? (Didn't JB say that battery minerals currently travel more than 50,000 miles before they are made into a cell? Why add more to that?)

Maybe you are thinking mainly about end-of-life packs? I suspect that currently most of the recycled materials are pre-consumer, i.e. cells that failed testing and never made it into a pack.

 

[Dutchie]

Happy earnings day everyone!



At least let's hope it turns out happy....

Even if it is not a happy one it would be a mere blip in the grand scheme of things.

 

[cab]

So we've all seen the "competition is coming" and "Tesla's EV market share is shrinking" headlines and both have been true, BUT they fail to recognize the competition is underperforming and Tesla is much less concerned with EV competition and is entirely focused on stealing ICE share. HOWEVER, when I look at Tesla's performance in the U.S. (currently 60% of all EV sales), I'm starting to think Tesla's EV market share in the U.S. will start to INCREASE even with the competition!

Years ago when my stepson was heading off to college (an engineering degree no less) I tried to convince him to get a Windows-based laptop as it would likely better support his degree. I made all the arguments around software availability, price vs. performance, etc. At the end of the day he simply said "No one wants to be the only kid in class without a Mac". Tesla CONTINUES to be the "cool" choice and even with competition I suspect we will see it begin to be preferred over almost any other choices and their EV market share could begin to climb. After all, no one wants to be the only one at work/school/church/play without a Tesla.