Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

Not to be a hater, but I'm not sure that this fsd "transfer" will work out all that well anyway - they just low ball your trade in even more.
Right?

In theory a car with FSD has FSD included in the trade in value.

When transferring FSD they will simply deduct the value of FSD included in the trade in, which might not be the current price of FSD.

Not that many cars as a percentage of the fleet currently have FSD and some of them may be newer.

Those benefiting are mainly long standing loyal customers, with older cars, who purchased FSD sometime ago, those customers have earned the reward. And I think many of those customers will be inclined to take the deal.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Not so fast!!

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I rest my case...

 

[Stretch2727]

FSD transferability will be good for moving vehicles, but of course selling those new vehicles anyways with +$15k would be preferable

If that drives more demand, will Tesla offset by increasing prices/reducing discounts? There will be some interesting pulls in all directions from this

Considering the long delay in FSD this is a win-win for Tesla and the customers. Tesla might not have to discount as much as you get a lot of people to upgrade their car. In some ways FSD was slowing sales as people were holding onto a car they normally would have traded but they did not want to pay for FSD a second time. After Q3 we will have Highland and Cybertruck to drive more sales.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

First FSD licensed announcement will break through the 2 year downtrend after multiple days, not earnings.

I seriously doubt we get a FSD license announcement this year.

Yes a FSD announcement would certainly break the stock out of the 2 year downtrend line. But I think other factors achieve that anyways. The longer the stock stays under the downtrend line, the harder it is to actually keep it below the line. Case in point, the downtrend line would point to a share price of 250’ish by the end of Q3

 

[Artful Dodger]

I really don't understand how we aren't bright green after this call so far but I have cash on the side and I'm happy to spend it all at a lower price.

That's a sublime question: Understanding the answer means understanding that the Market does not care about actual 'news', or 'performance', or all other such Fintech-no-bable.

All they care about is how they are positioned, and that is the closest held secret on Wallstreet (perhaps in the world). A glimpse of the underlying data that matters is revealed 1 day in arrears at 7:00 a.m. Guess where hedge fund / MMs want the stock to move?

Moving the SP below any of those big red humps means $millions in options payout in just 2 days. Think they'll tilt the board for their desired outcome? How're they doing so far?

Just know that TSLA is not Tesla, and Wall-E can not stop the tide.

 

[Singuy]

I seriously doubt we get a FSD license announcement this year.

Yes a FSD announcement would certainly break the stock out of the 2 year downtrend line. But I think other factors achieve that anyways. The longer the stock stays under the downtrend line, the harder it is to actually keep it below the line. Case in point, the downtrend line would point to a share price of 250’ish by the end of Q3

I think people feel that "FSD licensing" = FSD needs to be done.

No, Tesla will license out AP and AEB using FSD software stack. It is the most reliable based on all major governmental agency test vs the rest of the industry.

There are many parts to FSD, and the part conversative legacy auto want will be what mobile eye or whoever is currently supplying their AEB/lane keep software. This will be the first Tesla will replace.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Yeah. Bummer. So I just scooped up 130 more shares. I'm running out to the tool shed and grab the snow shovel.

Edit - May I have 80 more @ $274?? Come to Papa...

50 more - the ones I dropped off at daycare yesterday. They fed my kids I see!

 

[Unpilot]

50 more - the ones I dropped off at daycare yesterday. They fed my kids I see!

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Exactly how many couches do you have?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Exactly how many couches do you have?

Exactly! Same # as I had 2 days ago.

 

[MP3Mike]

What if the next announcement is that due to off the hook demand, as a result of the FSD transfer program, we are raising vehicle prices by $7k.

 

[Singuy]

What if the next announcement is that due to off the hook demand, as a result of the FSD transfer program, we are raising vehicle prices by $7k.

I foresee Y getting a price increase. Lots of 3 owners from 2018/2019 would love to upgrade to a Y especially when there's a 7500 dollar tax credit going on, however FSD kept them at bay.

Even though it's great to transfer FSD, I think Tesla probably require you to trade in your car which we heard they give you pennies on the dollar vs reselling it online. So I am on the fence but DEFINITELY thinking about it.

 

[mikevbf]

Here are my post earnings ramblings:
-Disappointed there were no questions about terms with automakers using the supercharger network and long term how much of a profit center the supercharger network might become.
-Batteries seem to be progressing well and the robots are becoming more and more real with each update
-I also found Elon's answer about xai interesting. Just like Elon's past answers on gigafactory locations, a lot of the decisions Tesla makes is based on how they can continue to attract more talent. One of the reasons I have so much financial exposure to Tesla is because they are able to attract the brightest and most competent people on the planet.
-xai exists separate from Tesla largely because the tallent Elon wants to attract want to work in a smaller start up. Makes sense now and I think xai will benefit Tesla a lot.
-My theory is Elon is not structuring the use of the supercharging network by other companies so much as a profit move but more as a mission and relations move. Because Elon is always in the mindset that "FSD is coming this year" he sees other companies producing electric cars as part of this fleet. As companies become used to using Tesla for one service, they become more open to using Tesla for other services. Tonight's announcement that a major car company is in talks with Tesla about licencing FSD supports this theory.
-in terms of market reacting negatively to the possibility that Tesla might need to reduce prices in the future and margins could go lower, this is not new info. TSLA came in hot to earnings so a little cooling off from the hopium crowd is in order.
-My prediction is the stock will really take off when Giga Mexico starts to show its potential

 

[SOULPEDL]

I foresee Y getting a price increase. Lots of 3 owners from 2018/2019 would love to upgrade to a Y especially when there's a 7500 dollar tax credit going on, however FSD kept them at bay.

Even though it's great to transfer FSD, I think Tesla probably require you to trade in your car which we heard they give you pennies on the dollar vs reselling it online. So I am on the fence but DEFINITELY thinking about it.

I was hoping to upgrade the Y for a CT, but that's unlikely. The offer is only through Q3, right?
At least Model 3 upgrades to Y can help ease used 3 prices and circulation in the markets more broadly.

 

[kbM3]

Yes, but the margin hits become a smaller piece of the overall pie with each step.

How? 50% growth is 50% growth.

So if in year 2026 they need to go from 5M to 7.5M / year, then 1/3 of their production lines will be ramping. In 2027 to go from 7.5M to 11.25M again 1/3 of the lines will be ramping…. It will be just as large a percentage of overall production as ramping Berlin and Austin In year 2023.

Assuming they maintain 50% growth and a production ramp takes 1 year, then 1/3 of the lines are ramping on average every year. It’s not a smaller piece of the pie. It’s always 1/3 of the pie.

 

[Mike Smith]

I don't understand why a major auto maker would want to license FSD when there's so many better options. Autonomous A2Z sounds like a complete solution - I'd pick that one.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I don't understand why a major auto maker would want to license FSD when there's so many better options. Autonomous A2Z sounds like a complete solution - I'd pick that one.

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That's a completely subjective graph with no context. You could easily put Tesla on the far right for strategy that it's trying to do it, on all roads, with less sensors...which would end up being the fraction of the cost.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I was hoping to upgrade the Y for a CT, but that's unlikely. The offer is only through Q3, right?
At least Model 3 upgrades to Y can help ease used 3 prices and circulation in the markets more broadly.

Yeah, I think it just became extremely likely that no one will be able to finalize a Cybertruck order in Q3. Elon talking about this year instead of Q3 for Cybertrucks and transferring FSD in Q3 only. That's not a coincident.

 

[Singuy]

I don't understand why a major auto maker would want to license FSD when there's so many better options. Autonomous A2Z sounds like a complete solution - I'd pick that one.

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Perhaps a sarcastic statement?

Currently even basic AP equivalent from other suppliers are geofenced (and are still terrible). No one wants geofenced FSD. It's literally worth less than 0. Ask Waymo and Cruise how worthless it is. About -2 billion/year.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think the notion that Q3 P&D might be less than Q2 due to shutdowns is the main reason TSLA is dropping now. Lowered guidance will normally do that.

Long term it won't matter of course, but I can see how that might be negative in the short term.

... and then upgrade the factories. Good time to do this.

Demand is strong (at the right price) so rather than drop the prices further on any weakness, instead keep it flat or even raise the prices and make fewer. Then do all the upgrades and annuals that you can afford without breaking the bank. Steady as she goes

 

[JRP3]

I didn't hear the entire call, any mention of Solar Roof, or solar at all? No Solar Roof in the shareholder deck.