Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cliff harris]

I think people sometimes think that cars all over the world are the same as cars in their country. Not so.
You have a hard time selling pickup trucks in the UK. You have a hard time selling cars that are not hatchbacks in the UK. You have a real hard time selling wide vehicles of any sort to people who live in old cities in western Europe. You will have one hell of a job selling anything too large anywhere in Japan.
Similarly, you wont find it easy selling a mini or a smart car in Texas.

Ultimately, if its to remain a global brand, selling 20m a year, Tesla will have to adapt its design to each locale. Different weather, different geography, different laws, different priorities and expectations really matter.

Right now, Teslas still feel like they are designed in California or Texas. Too big, too wide, and totally unprepared for bad weather. When I got my 2015 model S the fact it had no rear wiper confused the hell out of me. My 2022 model Y constantly says 'parking assist degraded' or 'cameras blocked'.

I look forward to the small tesla van, and the small urban model 2. Both would sell like crazy in Europe.

 

[hobbes]

Silicon anodes coming to Tesla via Panasonic for their new US factory?

Bessere Tesla-Batterien ab 2025? Panasonic kauft Anoden-Material bei britischem Startup

Panasonic kauft für eine weitere US-Fabrik Anoden-Material bei einem britischen Spezialisten – wahrscheinlich für Elektroautos von Tesla.

teslamag-de.translate.goog

If this works they might incorporate it into 4680 also when they have the rest of the production running at scale, probably a good idea to first put the silicon anode into a production process that is well established.

 

[Skryll]

I think people sometimes think that cars all over the world are the same as cars in their country. Not so.
You have a hard time selling pickup trucks in the UK. You have a hard time selling cars that are not hatchbacks in the UK. You have a real hard time selling wide vehicles of any sort to people who live in old cities in western Europe. You will have one hell of a job selling anything too large anywhere in Japan.
Similarly, you wont find it easy selling a mini or a smart car in Texas.

Ultimately, if its to remain a global brand, selling 20m a year, Tesla will have to adapt its design to each locale. Different weather, different geography, different laws, different priorities and expectations really matter.

Right now, Teslas still feel like they are designed in California or Texas. Too big, too wide, and totally unprepared for bad weather. When I got my 2015 model S the fact it had no rear wiper confused the hell out of me. My 2022 model Y constantly says 'parking assist degraded' or 'cameras blocked'.

I look forward to the small tesla van, and the small urban model 2. Both would sell like crazy in Europe.

Same impression I got visiting Hamburg in Germany.

Positively surprised that Uber Green from the airport is 100% BEV unlike in the US where hybrid gas burners will show up most of the time.

Looks like most of Uber Green vehicles in Hamburg are VW ID4 and ID5, some polestar also.

In the neighborhood I mostly see small hatchbacks that are electric. ID3, Hyndai, some other Chinese company. I only saw one single Model Y in the local neighborhood, but quite a few smaller and medium sized electric cars, VW ID4/5 being the larger ones.

Hopefully Tesla building out Berlin will make them more visible in the streets too. Once Model Y/3 demand for Europe is satisfied hopefully they also add a smaller form factor for the more local taste.

 

[MaChiMiB]

Looks like that there is an active attacker in Gigatexas.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1684872181421948928

Police is at the site. Little more info on that X (Twitter) account.

 

[mongo]

You have a hard time selling pickup trucks in the UK. You have a hard time selling cars that are not hatchbacks in the UK. You have a real hard time selling wide vehicles of any sort to people who live in old cities in western Europe. You will have one hell of a job selling anything too large anywhere in Japan.
Similarly, you wont find it easy selling a mini or a smart car in Texas.

Ultimately, if its to remain a global brand, selling 20m a year, Tesla will have to adapt its design to each locale. Different weather, different geography, different laws, different priorities and expectations really matter.

World-wide vehicle sales in 2021: 66.7 million
UK vehicle sales in 2021: 2 million
UK is 3% of world market and 10% of Tesla total, so the need to fully saturate it is questionable.

Still, the world is made of subregions. Tesla thrives on mass production, not multiple models. One factory complex could supply 100% of UK demand. Even a 250k factory would be 25% of UK's total market. So a smaller (say $25k-$30k) multiregion hatchback could be successful, especially with unboxed manufacturing where the left/right hand drive variations can be handled in the front section assembly line.

Really interesting would be different rear sections for hatch vs estate vs saloon, but that may be too different structurally.

 

[scaesare]

Looks like that there is an active attacker in Gigatexas.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1684872181421948928

Police is at the site. Little more info on that X (Twitter) account.

@Stormy24 Laughing reaction at that?

Not cool.

 

[scaesare]

The new V4 Supercharger pedestals are rated for 1000v/1000A:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1684651760709767168

Given that the max's aren't necessarily at the same time, I wonder what the actual power delivery capability is. 500KW?

 

[scaesare]

I’m calling zero chance of a hatchback for Highland. Franz doesn’t design that kind of boxy (typical of hatchbacks) shaped butt end on vehicles, I don’t see Tesla shortening up the back piece of glass nor elongating the sides of the lift gate to have it hinged higher along the roof line, and I doubt hatchbacks are aesthetically appealing to Elon.

A core ingredient to the mission was to make compelling EVs that didn’t look like glorified golf carts. While a hatchback may add usage value for people, they ain’t ‘pretty’. Pretty is important to Tesla.

I think it's not necessarily just aesthetics, aerodynamics are very important to EV's, especially at highway speeds. Boxy, blunt rear ends are bad for Cd.

As @bkp_duke mentions below, the S has a liftback/hatchback, which would be interesting to see the on the 3... I think there's much greater than 0% chance of that appearing on another Tesla vehicle...

 

[2daMoon]

Looks like that there is an active attacker in Gigatexas.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1684872181421948928

Police is at the site. Little more info on that X (Twitter) account.

False Alarm, No Shooter at Giga Texas.

 

[EVMeister]

False Alarm, No Shooter at Giga Texas.

I'll assume the headline is accurate as "This content is not available in your country/region".

Edit: Google cache workaround.

 

[Baumisch]

I'll assume the headline is accurate as "This content is not available in your country/region".

Edit: Google cache workaround.

same here in GER - just use 12ft.io 12ft |

 

[Chenkers]

There's a massive wall of $270 Put options expiring today, the biggest in over a month. With the stock price drop these are now in the money, which is quite unusual for such a large wall. It'll be interesting to see how today unfolds.
View attachment 960286

And just like that the massive Put wall at $270 is gone, leaving just the $250 Put wall. Looks like it could be a nothing Friday in terms of TSLA price action with the MM target price currently looking under or around $260 (Max Pain now $265).

Yesterday, while everyone here was so busy talking about double glazing there was actually a major bear raid going on in the wider market and particularly TSLA. That caused a major reshuffling of positions for this and coming weeks, which could limit upside in the short term.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

View attachment 960170

Now that's just funny. Anyone in the media calling them out on this BS? Current production is what, somewhere around 25K Mach-Es and 15k Lightnings, and they can't sell those.

 

[2daMoon]

I’m calling zero chance of a hatchback for Highland. Franz doesn’t design that kind of boxy (typical of hatchbacks) shaped butt end on vehicles, I don’t see Tesla shortening up the back piece of glass nor elongating the sides of the lift gate to have it hinged higher along the roof line, and I doubt hatchbacks are aesthetically appealing to Elon.

A core ingredient to the mission was to make compelling EVs that didn’t look like glorified golf carts. While a hatchback may add usage value for people, they ain’t ‘pretty’. Pretty is important to Tesla.

I love the utility of a hatchback and consider three of the four models of Tesla as being hatchbacks. (SUVs are hatchbacks in my book)

If a vehicle has a hatch on the back of the car that opens completely to the roof line it is a hatchback.
I think Franz is on board with this. The M3 is the only sedan Tesla makes, and this alone is reason enough not to make it a hatch as well. There will be more hatchbacks coming though.

A hatchback doesn't have to look like an AMC Pacer. (thank goodness)

 

[Thekiwi]

Tesla Owners Have Soured on Elon Musk, But Still Love Their Model 3s

After five years on the road, we asked 5,000 customers what they thought of their cars and the Tesla brand.

www.bloomberg.com

Tesla’s Model 3 Still Holds Up After Five Years on the Road: Tesla Survey

After five years on the road, we asked 5,000 customers what they thought of their cars and the Tesla brand.

www.bloomberg.com

Tesla Autopilot Test Drivers Rate Full Self-Driving Feature: Tesla Survey

After five years on the road, we asked 5,000 customers what they thought of their cars and the Tesla brand.

www.bloomberg.com

This is an excellent survey from Tom Randall - tracking responses from actual model 3 owners over years of ownership.

Unfortunately it does confirm the massive personal brand damage that Elon has done to himself (and this is coming from Tesla owners!), but at least from this survey it appears that it doesn’t always translate that those model 3 owners with deeply unfavorable opinions on Musk will not continue to buy teslas in future. Amongst Tesla owners at least, the company supersedes the man running it.

 

[mongo]

Given that the max's aren't necessarily at the same time, I wonder what the actual power delivery capability is. 500KW?

Yeah, a source cabinet has a power limit along with voltage and current. For example, 350kW could be 1000A @ 350V or 350A at 1000V. However, the pedestal cam support both maximums simultaneously.

Voltage rating is based on insulation and conducting spacing. Current rating is based on self heating. 1000A@ 400V is the same as 1000A @ 800v from a thermal perspective.

A V3 cabinet can output over 900kW when cross linked on the 880-1000V DC bus.
Tesla called out tests of ~900 Amps in the NACS documents with no liquid cooling on the vehicle's charge port.
So the pedestal can do 1MW and the current cabinet nearly that much (if linked to 2-3 others). Question is, what can the pack handle.

 

[dhrivnak]

I’m calling zero chance of a hatchback for Highland. Franz doesn’t design that kind of boxy (typical of hatchbacks) shaped butt end on vehicles, I don’t see Tesla shortening up the back piece of glass nor elongating the sides of the lift gate to have it hinged higher along the roof line, and I doubt hatchbacks are aesthetically appealing to Elon.

A core ingredient to the mission was to make compelling EVs that didn’t look like glorified golf carts. While a hatchback may add usage value for people, they ain’t ‘pretty’. Pretty is important to Tesla.

It can work as it did in my Volt. The Volt was definitely a sedan but the large hatch allowed me to carry more than I can in my Model 3.

 

[2daMoon]

Now, Ford joins the likes of VW and Stelantis with a statement of how the pace of EV adoption will be slow.

Ford CEO predicts ‘pace of EV adoption will be slower than expected’ in the near term

Ford CEO Jim Farley recently predicted that EV adoption will be slower than expected. The automaker also recently released its Q2 results.

www.teslarati.com

It seems they are unable to further qualify such statements with pertinent data. They should be perfectly honest with themselves and say,

The pace of EV adoption will be slow...
for manufacturers who are unable to produce a compelling BEV​

 

[SO16]

This is an excellent survey from Tom Randall - tracking responses from actual model 3 owners over years of ownership.

Unfortunately it does confirm the massive personal brand damage that Elon has done to himself (and this is coming from Tesla owners!), but at least from this survey it appears that it doesn’t always translate that those model 3 owners with deeply unfavorable opinions on Musk will not continue to buy teslas in future. Amongst Tesla owners at least, the company supersedes the man running it.

This video also shows the brand loyalty with Tesla is outstanding.

Of course the Rueters guy gets a lot of things wrong and they focus on many people going back to gas cars after buying an EV. But they glaze over the fact that if one buys an EV from Tesla, a person is more likely to stick with an EV. Just shows how well the ownership experience and ecosystem works with Tesla. I suspect that other companies going with NACS and superchargers will help improve their ownership experience as well.

A couple of them cant seem to figure out that reducing trims is a good way to reduce complexity and costs.

And Gary still gets excited when he hears bad news about Tesla.

Still worth listening to though, IMO. Tesla is discussed quite a bit in this throughout. Tom Libby gave quite a few interesting stats but also came up short a few times with how to look at things in regards to Tesla.

Tesla's Owner Loyalty Blows The Rest Of The Industry Away - AAH 657

TOPICS:- Who has the best owner loyalty- How loyal Are EV buyers?- Tesla Discourages Owners From Making Service Appointments Related to Range- Brand Loyalty ...

www.youtube.com

 

[winfield100]

I think it's not necessarily just aesthetics, aerodynamics are very important to EV's, especially at highway speeds. Boxy, blunt rear ends are bad for Cd.

As @bkp_duke mentions below, the S has a liftback/hatchback, which would be interesting to see the on the 3... I think there's much greater than 0% chance of that appearing on another Tesla vehicle...

@scaesare
the prevailing reason we got the Y and not the 3, which we got a reservation for on 3/31/2016 (day i retired) was the hatchback.
we cart stuff around everywhere, 10 bags of topsoil or mulch, projects, etc