Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Gonna be long n boring Q3 when it comes to TSLA.

The stock is comfortably above the 2 yr downtrend line which should "hopefully" act as strong support. The current uptrend line from the low back in Jan is like 205/share today and would be roughly 235 by the time Q3 numbers come out. I can see Wall St continuously pushing TSLA lower and underperforming it's beta to try and test the uptrend line.

I don't think we get Cybertruck and Highland delivery announcements until very end of Q3. I think bears/shorts will get plenty of ammo to issue their "concerns" between now and then because first month of European daily registration data is tracking decently behind Q2. They'll also point out China registrations 20% behind Q2 while leaving out that Q3 is the first complete quarter where China is supplying Canada and also is now supplying South Korea too.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

4) lol the fud slinging around discrediting the team sounding real TSLAQ-ish. You’re going to look bad in history.

Once bitten (eg cold fusion, numerous solid state battery "breakthroughs" that went nowhere), twice shy.

It would be great if it turns out to be real, though. So much energy is wasted from electrical resistance. But for now, as Carl Sagan said, "extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof"

 

[elasalle]

Wonder if this had anything to do with it:
View attachment 961404

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/31/business/ford-f-150-parking-brake-recall/index.html

Ford has recalled more than 870,000 of its full-sized F-150 trucks because the electronic parking brake could engage unexpectedly at any time, including while the vehicle is being driven. That could cause a loss of control and possibly a crash.

 

[Christine69420]

And of course, lots of Teslas are made in China as well.

I don't think you got my point. Sorry if I was vague.

For years some have been warning us that the Chinese EV companies would come and eat market shares in the (EV) car market. And recently many Chinese brands have been launching vehicles in Norway to test the water for their products in the most EV country before eventually launching in the rest of Europe and the US.

And the news media write a lot about this and implying Tesla will be outrun by the new brands and models from China.

At the same time we read about the fossils having problems making EV that are both profitable and capable.

So it is interesting to see that when Tesla ship their cars elsewhere the Norwegians buy more from the established European and Korean brands than from the new breed of Chinese brands.

Personally I hope that both established and new brands succeed in making EVs that people want to buy and are profitable.

At the same time my friend who bought the quite popular MG is looking into trading it in for a Model 3. Mainly before it's second hand value go down even more. And also because of charging and range issues.

 

[Singuy]

Wonder if this had anything to do with it:
View attachment 961404

Maybe you should at least read the highlights beside just the headline. Then you'll know if it's related to US cars this is affecting or not....

 

[GOVA]

This is getting woefully off topic so I’m just going to leave this here:

1) It’s been less than a week but in that timespan one of the most reputable labs in America have validated the results in simulation and a lab in China actually replicated it

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686286684424691712

you can choose not to believe it that’s fine but there’s enough signal here to get reasonably excited.

2) This is not difficult to replicate, any grad student at a lab could do this. Only hard part is securing purity levels, but with further research this is going to be worked around. Like when Tesla said “hey you can shove a bunch of normal batteries in a car and make it drive well” and people scoffed for a thousand reasons. Don’t be that hypocritical skeptic.

3) The implications of this are so huge for so many fields it’s not going to be decades, it’s going to be now. This is national security, ip-law-ignoring levels of impact. Like how the whole world threw resources at Covid, there’s going to be unlimited resources thrown at this.

4) lol the fud slinging around discrediting the team sounding real TSLAQ-ish. You’re going to look bad in history.

It might be as well - legit. People have voiced their concerns more about pricing to volume production ratio rather than its faithfulness.

 

[AndrewZ]

Wonder if this had anything to do with it:
View attachment 961404

Don't think so, this was a component that would have been for SAE Level 3+ autonomous features where redundancies are necessary in critical systems

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

If Volvo Cars, AB is 100% Geelyowned then you should explain how this can be:
Volvo Car AB (VOLCAR-B) Stock Price & NewsGooglehttps://www.google.com › finance › quote › VOLCAR...

To clarify, Geely took Volvo Cars, AB public some time ago in order to help fund the conversion to all BEV. They did the same with Polestar for the same reason. Perhaps you were thinking of LEVC which is 100% owned.

LEVC | London Electric Vehicle Company

LEVC is a leading manufacturer and retailer of electric vehicles in the UK, including the iconic TX electric black cab.

levc.com

No, sorry, I missed it. I only knew about the Polestar float. Geely owns 82% of Volvo Cars. Volvo Cars owns almost half of Polestar.

 

[Surfer of Life]

I'm in Ibiza and I've rented a VW Polo. Compared to my Model 3 it's like stepping back in time.
It has a key which you must press to unlock the car.
You put the key into a slot and turn it but unless you press the clutch it won't start
Then you engage a gear with the gear stick. If you want reverse you must press down on the gear stick. It's tricky
There's a thing called a handbrake which you release to pull away. You also need to engage this handbrake on a hill or the car rolls backwards. And release it again to move off. Also tricky
You are constantly changing gears, up and down.
When you leave the car you must remember to press the key again to lock it.
It all feels very old fashioned, clunky and like its from a different era.

Still, at least it has a satnav which I desperately need because I don't know Ibiza.

Except it doesn't bloody well work! It's a VW
Oh for a Tesla, everything is so easy

View attachment 961391

@H Mak ’s observations, plus the remote possibility of forgetting to turn it off in the garage have me looking back wondering why we waited so long to sell the last ICE in our household.

There’s no going back, likewise for the lawn maintenance industry after buying my first commercial electric mower, it’s mostly in retrospect that the difference really sinks in, especially when I look at all the worn out parts on an old gas powered one I am selling, all parts non- existent on new electric mowers.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Maybe you should at least read the highlights beside just the headline. Then you'll know if it's related to US cars this is affecting or not....

Maybe i just forgot to put the /s after my statement, we all make mistakes sometimes At least 2 people got my sarcastic post

 

[phoggy123]

LK99... hmmm. Remember graphene? It was going to change everything. I'm still waiting. This has zero impact on TSLA stock, until you have multiple independent sources creating the same material and verifying all the claims AND then when some company can produce it by the ton, not the gram, and has a path to truly mass production at commodity prices.
Gold has amazing properties too, but it has an annoyingly high price.

I'm more excited by the news of semi mega-charger rollout plans than any wonder material.

Comparing this to gold is a comical misunderstanding of the opportunity here. It's been a week, the most prestigious labs in the world are working on independent verification, maybe some patience before calling the 21st century transistor a flop.

If this comes to fruition the race to commercialize LK-99 will give the Manhattan project a run for its money.

 

[EVWatcher]

Comparing this to gold is a comical misunderstanding of the opportunity here. It's been a week, the most prestigious labs in the world are working on independent verification, maybe some patience before calling the 21st century transistor a flop.

If this comes to fruition the race to commercialize LK-99 will give the Manhattan project a run for its money.

Anyone have enough knowledge of materials sciences and metallurgy to comment on how well positioned tesla would be to decide to build a wing of the company that mass produces this?

Edit: before anyone says “that’s stupid, get back on topic” a majority of the applications of this are energy related either directly or by way of efficiency. It’s very much in the tesla master plan wheelhouse. And as far as competency between spacex and tesla I have to believe they have the know how to get started on this and start looking at how to improve and automate mass production of metal alloys. Don’t forget, tesla is also into lithium refining.

 

[insaneoctane]

The thing that continues to impress me is that Tesla never had these kind of dumb issues with their Model S back in 2012 and after. Yet 10+ years later these large companies can’t engineer a car as good as Tesla did. Sad really.

Just evidence of how everyone underestimated the challenges associated with the design of BEV. I think the financial liability of bad decisions will haunt many companies that are just now scrambling to embrace BEV. This is a legitimate risk even for Tesla, honestly... but Tesla has demonstrated that they have been serious about minimizing this risk and I feel much better knowing that they have been. I think my money is still on the right horse...

 

[heltok]

It might be as well - legit. People have voiced their concerns more about pricing to volume production ratio rather than its faithfulness.

It might be legit. Current odds are at 41% of being legit.

Imo the claim the it will be pricy like graphene seems premature. The material is:
The chemical composition of LK-99 is approximately Pb9Cu(PO4)6O such that—compared to pure lead-apatite (Pb10(PO4)6O)[8]: 5 —approximately one quarter of Pb(II) ions in position 2 of the apatite structure are replaced by Cu(II) ions.[2]: 9 

The process of making it is:
Lee et al. provide a method for chemical synthesis of LK-99 material[8]: 2  by producing lanarkite from a 1:1 molar mixing of lead(II) oxide (PbO) and lead(II) sulfate (Pb(SO4)) powders, then heating at 725 °C (1,000 K; 1,340 °F) for 24 hours:

PbO + Pb(SO4) → Pb2(SO4)O
Additionally, copper(I) phosphide (Cu3P) was produced by mixing copper (Cu) and phosphorus (P) powders in a 3:1 molar ratio in a sealed tube under a vacuum and heated to 550 °C (820 K; 1,000 °F) for 48 hours:[8]: 3 

Cu + P → Cu3P
Lanarkite and copper phosphide crystals were ground into a powder, placed in a sealed tube under a vacuum, and heated to 925 °C (1,200 K; 1,700 °F) for between 5‒20 hours:[8]: 3 

Pb2(SO4)O + Cu3P + O2 (g) → Pb10-xCux(PO4)6O + S (g), where (0.9 < x < 1.1)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686408227662282752

I assume that if it turns out to be true, then this method will be optimised and Wright's law will apply to it. If Chinese labs can make it in a week, then it doesn't seem super hard to do. I would guess SpaceX materials science and Tesla 30X stainless steal are showing that Tesla and SpaceX should be a in good position to quickly iterate materials and setting up a process.

Looking forward to hearing what Elon thinks about it. Hopefully in a few more days the situation should be more clear and the odds should go from 40% to <10% or >90%. Imo 40% chance of a world changing discovery and power abundance is imo worth to not just dismiss calling it graphene/cold fusion.

 

[EVWatcher]

It might be legit. Current odds are at 41% of being legit.

Imo the claim the it will be pricy like graphene seems premature. The material is:
The chemical composition of LK-99 is approximately Pb9Cu(PO4)6O such that—compared to pure lead-apatite (Pb10(PO4)6O)[8]: 5 —approximately one quarter of Pb(II) ions in position 2 of the apatite structure are replaced by Cu(II) ions.[2]: 9 

The process of making it is:
Lee et al. provide a method for chemical synthesis of LK-99 material[8]: 2  by producing lanarkite from a 1:1 molar mixing of lead(II) oxide (PbO) and lead(II) sulfate (Pb(SO4)) powders, then heating at 725 °C (1,000 K; 1,340 °F) for 24 hours:

PbO + Pb(SO4) → Pb2(SO4)O
Additionally, copper(I) phosphide (Cu3P) was produced by mixing copper (Cu) and phosphorus (P) powders in a 3:1 molar ratio in a sealed tube under a vacuum and heated to 550 °C (820 K; 1,000 °F) for 48 hours:[8]: 3 

Cu + P → Cu3P
Lanarkite and copper phosphide crystals were ground into a powder, placed in a sealed tube under a vacuum, and heated to 925 °C (1,200 K; 1,700 °F) for between 5‒20 hours:[8]: 3 

Pb2(SO4)O + Cu3P + O2 (g) → Pb10-xCux(PO4)6O + S (g), where (0.9 < x < 1.1)

I assume that if it turns out to be true, then this method will be optimised and Wright's law will apply to it. If Chinese labs can make it in a week, then it doesn't seem super hard to do. I would guess SpaceX materials science and Tesla 30X stainless steal are showing that Tesla and SpaceX should be a in good position to quickly iterate materials and setting up a process.

Looking forward to hearing what Elon thinks about it. Hopefully in a few more days the situation should be more clear and the odds should go from 40% to <10% or >90%. Imo 40% chance of a world changing discovery and power abundance is imo worth to not just dismiss calling it graphene/cold fusion.

Chemical composition doesn’t seem the right argument that it won’t be expensive given that chemically graphen is just carbon.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I don't think you got my point. Sorry if I was vague.

For years some have been warning us that the Chinese EV companies would come and eat market shares in the (EV) car market. And recently many Chinese brands have been launching vehicles in Norway to test the water for their products in the most EV country before eventually launching in the rest of Europe and the US.

And the news media write a lot about this and implying Tesla will be outrun by the new brands and models from China.

At the same time we read about the fossils having problems making EV that are both profitable and capable.

So it is interesting to see that when Tesla ship their cars elsewhere the Norwegians buy more from the established European and Korean brands than from the new breed of Chinese brands.

Personally I hope that both established and new brands succeed in making EVs that people want to buy and are profitable.

At the same time my friend who bought the quite popular MG is looking into trading it in for a Model 3. Mainly before it's second hand value go down even more. And also because of charging and range issues.

No, I got it. I was actually adding to it.

There's a lot of talking them up in media without noting that so far it hasn't really happened.

However, those markets do have people buying a lot of cars that are manufactured in China, such as many RWD Teslas, old brand names that were bought by Chinese companies, such as MG and Volvo, and in some other markets cheap Chinese-manufactured cars like the Dacia Spring are doing relatively well.

But, we're also still at a point where EV prices are high, even the relatively cheaper ones like the MG ZS EV or MG5, so the typical buyers can afford to pay the extra. That might not continue as EV prices drop and you get into the lower-priced new vehicle markets.

 

[Speedr117]

It might be as well - legit. People have voiced their concerns more about pricing to volume production ratio rather than its faithfulness.

If it is real, then it moves from a physics problem to an engineering problem. Once this happens, it's just a matter of time and money before it's being used everywhere (that makes sense).

 

[Knightshade]

It might be legit. Current odds are at 41% of being legit.

Randos betting on what is true seems a really weird way to judge science?

Like, a poll up into the late 1400s would've had the "odds" of the geocentric model being legit extremely high.

 

[heltok]

Randos betting on what is true seems a really weird way to judge science?

Like, a poll up into the late 1400s would've had the "odds" of the geocentric model being legit extremely high.

If you disagree on the odds, there is some easy money for you to collect. Currently $448k has been wagered on LK99. Prediction markets have been found to greatly outperform polls and experts in many other domains such as elections. Imo it's pretty obvious that they should, if they didn't then the experts could enter the market and make easy profits and correct the odds.

Fwiw I have wagered tens of thousands of dollars on some prediction markets where I believed the odds were off and I believed I had an edge over the market. This one I would not bet on as I am not an expert. If you are then imo bet.

 

[bpjod]

Almost like everyone went on summer vacation on the same day…

Sorry, too busy enjoying my Tesla to opine on TSLA.