Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lascavarian]

Looks like Tesla is getting some traction on Tribal lands.

Tesla Finds Havens on Tribal Lands to Get Around Direct Sales Ban

Tesla Finds Havens on Tribal Lands to Get Around Direct Sales Ban

www.marketwatch.com

 

[lascavarian]

IMO if this pans out then we’re going to get a glimpse of a real singularity timeline.

It is still a coin flip. The markets seem unimpressed and looks like a weak open coming.

 

[petit_bateau]

Odds of LK99 being true are going up fast now(from 23% to ~50% and bouncing around):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686208153157881856

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

5% chance. Preprint here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008 Companion paper here with description of synthesis: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037 Update 2023-08-05: Updating to answer some more common questions. If anything here differs from the 2023-07-27 update, this update should supersede...

manifold.markets

Polymarket | Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real?

Polymarket | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the results of the paper titled "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" (https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) regarding LK99 are ...

polymarket.com

So I guess the important question is how does this affect TSLA if this is true? How could Tesla use room temperature ambient pressure superconductors? How will it affect the broad market?

I assume LK99-> Nuclear Fusion -> abundance of electricity is the main impact, but I would guess that's at least 5-10years in the future.

If this room temperature superconductor news is true - which is something I have no opinion on - then it would tend to reduce the value of Tesla Energy a fair bit, but increase the value of Tesla Automotive a little.

My rationale is as follows.

Growth of BEVs is somewhat constrained by growth in charger networks: both Superchargers/etc for fast charging and home/work slowcharging. In their own different ways they stress the electrical 'grid' networks and over time a certain amount of grid reinforcement and extension becomes necessary. To the extent that practical superconductivity makes grid build out easier/faster/cheaper then that will increase penetration rates of BEVs and hence Tesla Automotive. Also there may be applications within the vehicles themselves, especially around the high current areas, i.e. motors and main harnesses. So perhaps some increae in Tesla Automotive value.

Turning to Tesla Energy the only real value there is in the storage game as Tesla solar is as dead as a dead duck thing can get. One can debate (and model) whether storage deployment will be utility led or consumer led; namely being widely dispersed and low in the grid architecture, or relatively concentrated and high in the grid architecture at the main nodes. But either way storage capacity tends to substitute for increased grid capacity. If one tries the thought experiments of how much storage one would buy if the grid build was infinitely cheap (answer = zero) vs the reverse of how much grid capacity one would buy & build if storage was infinitely cheap (answer = remarkably little) then one gets insight. So one can see that anything that tends to reduce grid costs in a material and practicable manner, will also reduce storage build out and hence the value of any storage business.

(Where it might make a significant difference in the shorter term is in wind energy where getting down the weight of the nacelle assembly is very helpful. This would especially help offshore wind - accelerating the march towards 20MW and then 30MW turbines, and associated array and landward cabling. So if this is true then one should expect the wind/solar blend to bias slightly towards wind, but that does not really affect Tesla valuation. Also it is helpful in defence, aerospace, marine, and rail applications none of which affect Tesla).

But - even if this is true - then I would expect at least 10-years before real products, and 20-years before serious scale. By which time the bulk of the global energy transformation to non-fossil and to BEV is over imho.

 

[jerry33]

Growth of BEVs is somewhat constrained by growth in charger networks: both Superchargers/etc for fast charging and home/work slowcharging. In their own different ways they stress the electrical 'grid' networks and over time a certain amount of grid reinforcement and extension becomes necessary. To the extent that practical superconductivity makes grid build out easier/faster/cheaper then that will increase penetration rates of BEVs and hence Tesla Automotive. Also there may be applications within the vehicles themselves, especially around the high current areas, i.e. motors and main harnesses. So perhaps some increae in Tesla Automotive value.

My understanding has been that the holdups in Supercharger expansion are negotiations with property owners, permitting, and getting the utility power (and of course budget). Superconductors will only help one of these three, so, yes an improvement, but how big an improvement will depend on each case. Agreed that it won't be tomorrow.

 

[unk45]

Especially when discussing shares of a company that doesn't issue dividends, making the shares merely collectibles with no inherent value.

Oops! Asset value has inherent value as does an unoccupied house, but the house costs money by its existence while TSLA increased in tangible value as it generates cash and earnings plus growth in valuable physical assets. Of course your comments was implicitly marked with an /s so I apologize for responding as if your comment were serious.

 

[unk45]

Why not?

The answer is contained in the definition.

 

[2daMoon]

Looks like Tesla is getting some traction on Tribal lands.

Tesla Finds Havens on Tribal Lands to Get Around Direct Sales Ban

Tesla Finds Havens on Tribal Lands to Get Around Direct Sales Ban

www.marketwatch.com

I particularly enjoyed reading this line from that article,

Karl acknowledges that Tesla has been “responsible for a significant portion of the movement to EVs, but I just don’t believe the path they have chosen is sustainable for the long term.”​

Yeah Karl, you just keep believing that while the stealership path you have chosen goes the way of the Dodo.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yeah, "LK99" hasn't been shown to be a superconductor yet, but there are numerous other red flags swirling around this unsubstantiated claim:

• an ARXIV pre-print paper by 3 authors was published on July 22, but was uploaded w/o the knowledge of the first 2 authors (what, can't wait?)
• Alex Kaplan on Twitter (4 days ago)
  • 1. Kwon is no longer affiliated with Korea University.
  • 2. Kwon resigned as CTO of Q-Centre four months ago
  • 3. Kwon published to the archive without the permission of any other authors
• LK99 stands for Lee & Kim 1999, the year they 1st synthesized the material (what, now, 24 years later, it's suddenly urgent?)
• an original paper was published in Korean in April '23 by 6 authors (press converage?)
• a similar paper was uploaded to the archive on July 22 just 3 hrs later by the 3 other authors (neither of these 2 pre-print papers have been peer reviewed)
• this smaks of jostling to claim the '3 max authors' eligible for a Nobel (follow the $$)

Then, the claim itself is far from substantiated. Here's a timeline and summary of claims:

LK99 -- A new room temperature superconductor? | Sabine Hossenfelder (Sun 2023-07-30)

• the July 22 paper doesn't contain a measurement for the drop in resistivity (you know, what actually determines if a material is a superconductor? - redflag #1)
• video uploaded by the authors of a LK99 disc partially floating above a magnet doesn't look like the Meissner effect, it looks like LK99 may be a diamagnetic material. (redflag #2)
• video author claimed it only partially floated due to "defects" in their material (masquerading attempt to shore up claims + deceive the unwarely?)

So then, what will be the primary affect on Tesla? We get to add yet another SuC to the alphabet soup of acroynms such as SuperCharger, Service Center, SuperConductor... As for this LK99 story, it sounds like typical Wall-E hype with random Tweets claiming "We're OFFICIALLY Back" for a repply paper merely saying was there may be a theorical mechanism. That's not "back", that's not even science yet, as no other physicist has examined that claim either.

LK99 smaks of "flubber". I'm pretty sure one tweet even compared it to dilithium crystals already. What, can't afford to spend August in the Hamptons? Better gin up some tweets then...

IMO this is hype, and will inevitably be shown to be a false claim, but not until some $$ changes hands...

Don't be deceived.

 

[CHGolferJim]

IMO - Summer, no COVID, we're not stuck at home on random internet chatrooms trying to make friends anymore.

Airlines Are Thriving as People Keep Traveling

Three large U.S. airlines have reported strong quarterly sales and profits in recent days because of strong demand, high fares and relatively low fuel prices.

www.nytimes.com

The 7 flights on recent trip to France and Estonia were 100% full. Yuck.

 

[FreqFlyer]

2024 Chevy Blazer EV prices and range revealed, starting at $57K with as much as 320 miles range

The newest electric SUV is about to hit the streets. Chevrolet confirmed on Monday that the Blazer EV is leaving...

electrek.co

HA HA HA HA HA


Wasn't this supposed to be a $30k SUV?

EDIT - apparently it was the Equinox that was supposed to drop at 30k.

Yes, the Equinox is the smaller vehicle.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Surprised no one posted this yet. When the music stops the big energy corporations will always have the a seat.

Exxon in Early Talks with Tesla, Ford, and Volkswagen to Supply Lithium - TeslaNorth.com

Exxon Mobil, one of the world's largest oil companies, is reportedly in preliminary discussions with leading automakers, including Tesla, Ford Motor, and Volkswagen, to supply lithium, a crucial component in electric vehicle batteries. The news was reported by Bloomberg Law on Monday, citing...

teslanorth.com

 

[ggies07]

Surprised no one posted this yet. When the music stops the big energy corporations will always have the a seat.

Exxon in Early Talks with Tesla, Ford, and Volkswagen to Supply Lithium - TeslaNorth.com

Exxon Mobil, one of the world's largest oil companies, is reportedly in preliminary discussions with leading automakers, including Tesla, Ford Motor, and Volkswagen, to supply lithium, a crucial component in electric vehicle batteries. The news was reported by Bloomberg Law on Monday, citing...

teslanorth.com

Greetings MFs. And this is why I think The Limiting Factor or Gali, someone, wanted Tesla to buy their own Lithium plant so they can cut out the middle man and reduce costs.

 

[JusRelax]

First economic indicators just came in for July, and they're all below expectations:

 

[Cosmacelf]

Odds of LK99 being true are going up fast now(from 23% to ~50% and bouncing around):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686208153157881856

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

5% chance. Preprint here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008 Companion paper here with description of synthesis: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037 Update 2023-08-05: Updating to answer some more common questions. If anything here differs from the 2023-07-27 update, this update should supersede...

manifold.markets

Polymarket | Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real?

Polymarket | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the results of the paper titled "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" (https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) regarding LK99 are ...

polymarket.com

So I guess the important question is how does this affect TSLA if this is true? How could Tesla use room temperature ambient pressure superconductors? How will it affect the broad market?

I assume LK99-> Nuclear Fusion -> abundance of electricity is the main impact, but I would guess that's at least 5-10years in the future.

Why aren’t people paying attention to cost? It’s the latest battery breakthrough of the week all over again, and no one seems to learn the fundamental underlying lesson.

If it is expensive to make, it’ll have limited impact.

It isn’t that hard a concept, yet everyone ignores it thinking a room temp SC will of course impact every walk of life. It was the same thinking in the 1950s when the popular press touted nuclear fission energy as “free” energy that was going to transform the world.

The latest info on this implies that it will be very very hard to make in any meaningful quantity. Meaning it’ll be super expensive. It might give us cheaper MRI machines and slightly cheaper particle accelerators, but you can forget trying to replace transmission lines. An 8% energy loss will be peanuts compared to the cost of this material.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Yeah, "LK99" hasn't been shown to be a superconductor yet, but there are numerous other red flags swirling around this unsubstantiated claim:

• an ARXIV pre-print paper by 3 authors was published on July 22, but was uploaded w/o the knowledge of the first 2 authors (what, can't wait?)
• Alex Kaplan on Twitter (4 days ago)
  • 1. Kwon is no longer affiliated with Korea University.
  • 2. Kwon resigned as CTO of Q-Centre four months ago
  • 3. Kwon published to the archive without the permission of any other authors
• LK99 stands for Lee & Kim 1999, the year they 1st synthesized the material (what, now, 24 years later, it's suddenly urgent?)
• an original paper was published in Korean in April '23 by 6 authors (press converage?)
• a similar paper was uploaded to the archive on July 22 just 3 hrs later by the 3 other authors (neither of these 2 pre-print papers have been peer reviewed)
• this smaks of jostling to claim the '3 max authors' eligible for a Nobel (follow the $$)

Then, the claim itself is far from substantiated. Here's a timeline and summary of claims:

LK99 -- A new room temperature superconductor? | Sabine Hossenfelder (Sun 2023-07-30)

• the July 22 paper doesn't contain a measurement for the drop in resistivity (you know, what actually determines if a material is a superconductor? - redflag #1)
• video uploaded by the authors of a LK99 disc partially floating above a magnet doesn't look like the Meissner effect, it looks like LK99 may be a diamagnetic material. (redflag #2)
• video author claimed it only partially floated due to "defects" in their material (masquerading attempt to shore up claims + deceive the unwarely?)

So then, what will be the primary affect on Tesla? We get to add yet another SuC to the alphabet soup of acroynms such as SuperCharger, Service Center, SuperConductor... As for this LK99 story, it sounds like typical Wall-E hype with random Tweets claiming "We're OFFICIALLY Back" for a repply paper merely saying was there may be a theorical mechanism. That's not "back", that's not even science yet, as no other physicist has examined that claim either.

LK99 smaks of "flubber". I'm pretty sure one tweet even compared it to dilithium crystals already. What, can't afford to spend August in the Hamptons? Better gin up some tweets then...

IMO this is hype, and will inevitably be shown to be a false claim, but not until some $$ changes hands...

Don't be deceived.

I agree that it seems very cold fusion-y

If others do happen to replicate it, it will probably be a long time before it is commercially viable (cheap and easy to scale). For Tesla, I don't think this will impact their business at all one way or another for a long time. It was 7 years between the invention of the transistor (1947) and the first commercially viable transistor radio (1954), and at least another decade before they were mass market (late 60s and early 70s).

 

[adiggs]

Why not?

Maybe because the original need would have already been filled by somebody else, instead of by somebody feeling the need to grab the then-existent industry by the hair and drag them kicking and screaming into electrification.

 

[Nocturnal]

This is our competition. HoHumEV goes from charging at 180kw to 33kw when you turn the AC on. Seemingly due to ambient temp.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1685019236945608705

 

[Zero CO2]

what do we make of this ? there is so much FUD i want to just dismiss it... loss of steering is pretty serious claim...

https://www.thestreet.com/electric-vehicles/tesla-faces-a-troubling-new-investigation-into-several-of-its-most-popular-models?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

 

[madodel]

This is our competition. HoHumEV goes from charging at 180kw to 33kw when you turn the AC on. Seemingly due to ambient temp.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1685019236945608705

Would this qualify as a "Hummer Killer"?

 

[growler23]

Looks like Tesla is getting some traction on Tribal lands.

Tesla Finds Havens on Tribal Lands to Get Around Direct Sales Ban

Tesla Finds Havens on Tribal Lands to Get Around Direct Sales Ban

www.marketwatch.com

From the article (emphasis mine):

A key supporter of the dealers’ position in the legislature, Republican Tony Hwang, the ranking member of the transportation committee, didn’t to return calls for comment. Leo Karl III, president of Karl Chevrolet in New Canaan, Conn., says he’s surprised that Tesla “continues to seemingly only work in the shadows outside of widely available legal avenues to go to market.” Karl acknowledges that Tesla has been “responsible for a significant portion of the movement to EVs, but I just don’t believe the path they have chosen is sustainable for the long term.”

Irony anyone?

(*** Darn - ninja'ed by @2daMoon )