Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[growler23]

Apologies if this has been posted. Should relate to Cybertruck sales when they start ramping for real (late 2024 hopefully).

Lightship L1 electric camper (MotorTrend)

The price tag on these seems high but travel trailers are not cheap to begin with. I have a friend who is rather excited about the amount of time you could spend boondocking (i.e. off grid) in one of these.

 

[GhostSkater]

750kW sustained? Pepsi management are using this figure, higher peaks before thermal effects seen as a bonus?

Would be a weird way for them to be rated, specially for Tesla

 

[dhanson865]

The supervisor said that. Later on (~4:30) the manager guy says "0-80% in 45 minutes".

You believe they are towing back the truck sitting on 0%? Or do you think they drive it around in circles every day trying to get it to 0%?

I'd believe the guy saying 5% to 10% at the end of the day over the guy saying 0%.

Sure the 0-80% 45 minute blurb might be technically accurate, but I don't see them driving to 0% state of charge on a regular basis.

Charging curves start charging very slow at 0% and don't hit full charge speed until later in the charge cycle.

 

[MartinAustin]

You believe they are towing back the truck sitting on 0%? Or do you think they drive it around in circles every day trying to get it to 0%?

I'd believe the guy saying 5% to 10% at the end of the day over the guy saying 0%.

Yes, I doubt they're charging it from less than 5% but perhaps it has happened once or twice due to accidental driving situations?

Either way, I think it's more likely that max charging rate of the Semi is currently limited by software as they test out the charging stations and the vehicles in the field. Yes this means they are costing the customers money - since time is money - but I'll wager the customers are already happy with what is happening (the lower, 750kW charging rate). Not sure what conditions have to be met before it goes higher - 800kW, 850kW etc. but I believe it will.

 

[y_naught]

Elon Musk interview at the PG&E Innovation Summit starts at minute 14:00:

 

[GhostSkater]

You believe they are towing back the truck sitting on 0%? Or do you think they drive it around in circles every day trying to get it to 0%?

I'd believe the guy saying 5% to 10% at the end of the day over the guy saying 0%.

Sure the 0-80% 45 minute blurb might be technically accurate, but I don't see them driving to 0% state of charge on a regular basis.

Charging curves start charging very slow at 0% and don't hit full charge speed until later in the charge cycle.

View attachment 962265

Keep in mind that chart is quite old

Tesla significantly improved Model 3/Y curve over the years via OTA, same Model 3

 

[EQC_]

Tim S said:
The supervisor said that. Later on (~4:30) the manager guy says "0-80% in 45 minutes".

You believe they are towing back the truck sitting on 0%? Or do you think they drive it around in circles every day trying to get it to 0%?

I'd believe the guy saying 5% to 10% at the end of the day over the guy saying 0%.

Sure the 0-80% 45 minute blurb might be technically accurate, but I don't see them driving to 0% state of charge on a regular basis.

Charging curves start charging very slow at 0% and don't hit full charge speed until later in the charge cycle.

Personally I wouldn't expect either a manager or a supervisor to have the most reliable statements on a detail like this. They're likely just saying what they vaguely remember hearing, probably a combination of Tesla's statements and the statements of their workers.

An actual driver would be most accurate for a particular driving and charging pattern....

Nice confirmation of range at about 2:30 -- the guy says the longer routes for the Tesla Semis range from 250-450 miles and says it is a "fully loaded tractor." [[although, I doubt it is fully loaded the whole time, since it is making drop-offs and perhaps pick-ups along the way]]

 

[dhanson865]

Keep in mind that chart is quite old

Tesla significantly improved Model 3/Y curve over the years via OTA, same Model 3

Who cares about the varous improvements in 3/Y supercharging curves? I posted that graph as a simple concept that 0% SOC isn't good for supercharging speeds.

I think that concept will apply to the Semi no matter the actual shape of the curve at higher states of charge.

I also made the post in general to debunk the notion that someone would regularly start charging at 0% no matter the EV.

I don't care if you drive a Tesla Semi or a Nissan Leaf you aren't taking your vehicle to 0% on a daily basis. At least I'm saying if you have any smarts you won't be.

 

[MC3OZ]

And if so at what point does production rise enough at American factories to supply the Canadian market again.

That must be dependent on 4680 cell production at Austin, the Model Y and Cybertruck ramps at Austin, and Gen3 progress in Mexico.

The IRA is probably dragging forward some US demand, the IRA rules may change, or it may become less of a factor.

We may see more meaningful volumes of alternative EVs available in the US market, sometime, but probably not soon.

It will happen one day, but probably not in the next 12 months.

It is also contingent on Tesla finding other markets for Chinese made vehicles, they can slowly expand to new markets.
IMO the lowest priced car in the range being affordable fir a significant slice of the population is a factor in opening new markets. If Model 3 Highland or a Gen3 car prize the door open in a new market, then Tesla can also sell some Model Ys there.

 

[WattsHappening]

Please forgive me for taking up space in this thread by posting about TSLA related investing.

Today is a weekly options expiration day. The TSLA range $255-$260 appears to include the most profitable closing prices for option writers with the ability to temporarily manipulate the share price.

Why does it seem like max pain or most profitable closing price only works to cap the stock price on the upside but doesn't seem to work to buoy the SP on the downside?

 

[Singuy]

Why does it seem like max pain or most profitable closing price only works to cap the stock price on the upside but doesn't seem to work to buoy the SP on the downside?

Probably because you're a bull and sees it with biased eyes. Gordon Johnson complains about the same thing on twitter when stock goes positive to reach max pain.

 

[Buckminster]

Five CTs plus look at fairly big frunk:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687664970367193088

 

[Atomsla]

Five CTs plus look at fairly big frunk:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687664970367193088

Fairly big frunk? You must be seeing a different video than I am. The frunk in my old S is about three times bigger.

edit: Very nice to see more trucks appearing though - can't wait for production to start up in earnest.

 

[Buckminster]

Fairly big frunk? You must be seeing a different video than I am. The frunk in my old S is about three times bigger.

edit: Very nice to see more trucks appearing though - can't wait for production to start up in earnest.

Look at the volume under the open hood. This will be good for golf bags or hiding a body… probably compartment below also.

 

[petit_bateau]

This article may be of interest re how some media are beginning to see and tell a more rounded BEV story

How electric cars became a battleground in the culture wars

EVs have become weaponised amid fears over cost of shift to battery power and job losses at carmakers

www.theguardian.com

 

[CyberShy]

Five CTs plus look at fairly big frunk:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687664970367193088

Lol. It’s blurry like bad UFO footage.

 

[2daMoon]

Lol. It’s blurry like bad UFO footage.

Well, after all, to many people it looks like it could be a UFO.

 

[EverettRuess]

This article may be of interest re how some media are beginning to see and tell a more rounded BEV story

How electric cars became a battleground in the culture wars

EVs have become weaponised amid fears over cost of shift to battery power and job losses at carmakers

www.theguardian.com

I have won over a few people in my rural Utah community by giving them a ride in my Model Y. They talk about it every time they see me. For most it is still, "They will have to pry the diesel F-150 out of my cold dead hands."

 

[scaesare]

Yeah, 750kW is the nominal rating per post. A site with 4 posts and 8 cabinets is then rated at 3 MW. With all the cabinets DC crosslinked, they could pump out nearly 2MW to a single post. With two groups of 4 cabinets linked, they could source 1.5MW to two semis.

I wonder if a single post/cable can handle 2MW. The slide does say greater than 1MW:

Also cool in that video: Pepsi says they are averaging using less energy than the 1.7Kwh/mi the trucks are rated at...

 

[Usain]

Tim S said:
The supervisor said that. Later on (~4:30) the manager guy says "0-80% in 45 minutes".


Personally I wouldn't expect either a manager or a supervisor to have the most reliable statements on a detail like this. They're likely just saying what they vaguely remember hearing, probably a combination of Tesla's statements and the statements of their workers.

An actual driver would be most accurate for a particular driving and charging pattern....

Nice confirmation of range at about 2:30 -- the guy says the longer routes for the Tesla Semis range from 250-450 miles and says it is a "fully loaded tractor." [[although, I doubt it is fully loaded the whole time, since it is making drop-offs and perhaps pick-ups along the way]]

And keep in mind, "fully loaded" might mean fully loaded with potato chips.