Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

I would say your first sentence contradicts itself based on any study of economic history, including an analysis of Tesla as you are insinuating that somehow Tesla has a profitable FSD solution...which they don't. Was Amazon a competitor in e-commerce? They didn't make money for a decade but they had a solution and were dominate. Uber in rideshare? Uber is a capital destroying monster but has a solution and maybe just maybe has found profits. We have no idea what Teslas solution will be, at this time it is years away from a product so purely academic. What we do know is that the industry is in the very infancy, two entities have products in the USA and several have products in China. Nobody knows how they'll get to market at scale but only these 2 have products. Tesla doesn't. Waymo is the clearest but I still wouldn't bet that we understand the strategy in full. When Tesla can deliver a FSD Robotaxi then we'll know how Tesla plans to attack the market and be able to discuss Tesla as a competitor to Waymo or Cruise.

Point 3 is obviously incorrect. That is a potential way for Tesla to differentiate but clearly absolutely not a requirement. Rideshare profits are in urban metro regions. Why offer anything else unless govt subsidies support it? Uber, Didi, Lyft, Grab has already profit tested the business models. I can't get an Uber to my home and I can't get one at my parents house. I see no reason for Tesla to offer a robotaxi in either location.

Without a doubt Tesla is the best positioned to actually build a robotaxi and software. Maybe unique in this regards. FSD can also become a very profitable product without robotaxis. EM has also said something else about robotaxis- he said it was critical for Tesla to have a solution early in the field.

My last post on any of these for a few years- right now its just been the same rehash as last year with the only update being Waymo and Cruise are moving to offer actual services at a faster and faster rate. For you investors this is just a data point to watch- how much of your investment thesis is FSD robotaxi revenue?

Tesla is the only company on earth right now with a profitable FSD business...so yeah I am insinuating that Tesla has a profitable FSD business.

Point 3 is the most important because as of today, 99.999% of the US transportation has been sold to people in the form of public, ride hailing, or personal transportation. There are certain ingredients you need to sell transportation to people and steal from the current saturated market share.

1. Time saving and comfort = biggest reason why people choose cars/trains/planes over walking.
2. Cost = second biggest reason why people choose what they choose

Are waymos cheaper than incumbent transport alternatives?
Are waymos faster than incumbent alternatives?

If both answers are no, then what is the point of a waymo? Selling novelty can only get you so far. Because "I would like to pay 3x more and get to my destination 3x slower..." is said by no one ever in the history of people paying for transport (unless if the transport vehicle is the actual event..think cruising or the novelty of sitting in a waymo to take a selfie).

 

[mongo]

At the local level, most chips are still 3.3V. So just a step down rail is needed to power whole boards (but I guess on board regulation is also possible, but that's a new part # then). The real 48V savings are with things like power seats, tailgate, windows and other small dc motors where the hot wires need to travel several feet.

HW3 was 75W limit, HW4 has 2-3x the cores, 150 W is 3A @ 48V vs 9A @ 16 vs 15A @ 12V. Less impactful than motor draws, but the module needs to work with the voltage that exists. Cybertruck is 48V so S/Y isn't a drop in and Tesla would respin the board instead of adding an additional step down module.

As to the voltages involved, they're not 3.3V. Many modern 3.3V processors actually have internal regulators to produce the real core voltage, but it's often more efficient to feed it from an external converter.

For the Y, on the GUI side the Samsung GDDR6 RAM K4ZAF325BM-HC14 is 1.1V.
On the FSD side, the TRIP NN chip runs on LPDDR4-4266 in the 0.6V to 1.8V range.

 

[SOULPEDL]

As to the voltages involved, they're not 3.3V. Many modern 3.3V processors actually have internal regulators to produce the real core voltage, but it's often more efficient to feed it from an external converter.

Ok…. supply was implied. New boards vs a step-down for boards… we shall see. Likely OT.

 

[AndrewZ]

FSD License means others can't do it themselves in time before their entire platform becomes irrelevant. I'm not going to pretend to figure out the system or levels without more details. But to believe it's not happening is to dismiss Elon when he clearly states that one or more OEMs are interested. And it could even be at basic levels to eliminate 80% of safety risks, or could be their next platform and the whole computer with full sensor suite. But I'm dying to find out!

The OEMs are already using tech from other companies like NVIDIA and Mobileye, both of which have implementations capable of attempting urban driving like Tesla's Autosteer on City Streets (what most people call FSD these days).

FSD gets all the attention but this type of licensing has been happening for a long time now, Tesla was using Mobileye's gear back in the early AP1 days. Mercedes is using NVIDIA's Drive Orin, Mobileye is in who knows how many brands around the world -- figuring out who uses what requires some digging.

 

[dhanson865]

I'm surprised this hasn't been posted:

“We believe that anything that can bring fans to the site without having to drive their cars or making it more convenient for people is a real positive.”

https://www.sfgate.com/athletics/article/oakland-athletics-want-elon-musk-boring-loop-18272173.php

Pretty awesome to have a major sports team get behind Boring Loop!

Wow, Alex Shultz is anti Elon Muisk, Anti Tesla, and Anti Boring company. I haven't seen that overt a spin on an article in a while.

and it continues like that all the way down, nothing but negative spin on every possible topic.

 

[unk45]

The screen and GUI is separate from the hardware driving it.
That said, CT likely has a completely different board set to support 48V.

I suggest 'likely has' be replaced with 'does have'. Reasoning, much of the advantages of 48V will be dissipated by using legacy 12V ancillary electrical equipment. Both suppliers and competitors are quite eager to make that transition but, except for a few hybrid powertrains, nobody has been willing to be first mover. Since Tesla has every suppliers knows all future Tesla's will have 48V with other manufacturers moving quickly.

Why? Because electric loads are rising for every car including ICE and 12V is distinctly sub-optimal for functionality and expense. Every OEM has been wanting this but none were willing to be first mover.
FWIW, World War II demands for light and rugged Jeeps had such examples as a 1942 Chevrolet Jeep with 12V electrics and an alternator!

Delco Remy Division - World War Two Products for Military Vehicles

Until 1953 there was US civilian production that nearly all used prewar electrical technology. Then GM introduced 12V on their highest-price versions, resulting in a bizarre Buick Roadster 12V and Buick Special 6V. By 1956 everyone switched.

Further some UK vehicles had 12V very early and switched to 6V for the US makers. That consideration is exactly analogous to the present one. Until somebody breaks the supplier/OEM 'installed base' inertia nothing can change.

Tesl already has done quite successful inertia-breaking with li-ion batteries, electric cars, OTA updates and much more. This 48V transition is one that will quickly spread primarily because it is cost-reducing, reliability increasing without negative consequences. This has waited 50 years to happen!

 

[scaesare]

I'm not sure how it's confusing though given as you say he specifically calls this out as applying to the Y? We already knew there's higher-end infotainment specs with the S/X than even the HW3 Ys had let alone the more downspec HW4 Y (which again makes sense since that's the only models with discrete GPU and that runs steam).

We don't know which of those two versions (Y or S/X) will be used in CT of course... have recent versions of it shown the rear screen we saw in original versions? If so that makes the S/X version more likely... and we don't know which will go in the refresh 3 either (though it'd be pretty weird if it wasn't the Y version in that case at least). They could even do some 3rd version, but Tesla tends to like fewer variants of parts, not more.

Because the infotainment specs, and FSD version, can all change independent of the vehicle model.

So, if in 6 months Tesla starts shipping a Y with an additional 2GB of infotainment RAM, but it's still a "model Y HW4" FSD system, then ambiguity results.

 

[mongo]

I suggest 'likely has' be replaced with 'does have'. Reasoning, much of the advantages of 48V will be dissipated by using legacy 12V ancillary electrical equipment. Both suppliers and competitors are quite eager to make that transition but, except for a few hybrid powertrains, nobody has been willing to be first mover. Since Tesla has every suppliers knows all future Tesla's will have 48V with other manufacturers moving quickly.

And here I specifically used "likely" to avoid arguments based on certainty . I try to be sure to caveat my statements when I do not have a source to confirm.

I agree, Tesla would use 48V to LV buck converters on the board, not 48V to 12V to LV converters.
Non Cybertruck, the patents gave called out network modules that Hyrdra out to legacy carryover loads at 12V.

Tesl already has done quite successful inertia-breaking with li-ion batteries, electric cars, OTA updates and much more. This 48V transition is one that will quickly spread primarily because it is cost-reducing, reliability increasing without negative consequences. This has waited 50 years to happen!

I'd caveat this as limited to EVs. ICE at 48V has other implications due to alternator fault survival, plus breaking jump starting.

 

[SOULPEDL]

The OEMs are already using tech from other companies like NVIDIA and Mobileye, both of which have implementations capable of attempting urban driving like Tesla's Autosteer on City Streets (what most people call FSD these days).

FSD gets all the attention but this type of licensing has been happening for a long time now, Tesla was using Mobileye's gear back in the early AP1 days. Mercedes is using NVIDIA's Drive Orin, Mobileye is in who knows how many brands around the world -- figuring out who uses what requires some digging.

I thought it might be a good idea to review Mobileye, been a while, video summary of hardware below.

They present many systems, pretty confusing. And some say they are L4 capable, 360 cameras with lidar. “AV kit.”

What’s their strategy for data collection? Has it begun yet or is it those test vehicles they mention in Israel for example?

2024 will introduce a new vehicle in partner with Geely. Who is Geely?Sounds like a test bed is all for their hardware? This is all going to be too late IMO.

Now I see why we are hearing on TMC how long it will take Tesla… this FUD narrative gives Mobileye a chance in theory. However, data volume and crunching capability still missing.

Still more Bullish FSD. This is going to be fun to watch.

 

[Max Plaid]

2024 will introduce a new vehicle in partner with Geely. Who is Geely? Sounds like a test bed is all for their hardware? This is all going to be too late IMO.

Geely is a major Chinese manufacturer, most well-known in the western world for buying Volvo some years back, and guess what, increasing the quality of the cars a lot

 

[AndrewZ]

I thought it might be a good idea to review Mobileye, been a while, video summary of hardware below.

They present many systems, pretty confusing. And some say they are L4 capable, 360 cameras with lidar. “AV kit.”

What’s their strategy for data collection? Has it begun yet or is it those test vehicles they mention in Israel for example?

2024 will introduce a new vehicle in partner with Geely. Who is Geely?Sounds like a test bed is all for their hardware? This is all going to be too late IMO.

Now I see why we are hearing on TMC how long it will take Tesla… this FUD narrative gives Mobileye a chance in theory. However, data volume and crunching capability still missing.

Still more Bullish FSD. This is going to be fun to watch.

They say they've been collecting and annotating visual data for 25+ years and have 200PB of it, as far as I know they're the commercial originators of all this and are what Tesla based its system on after their partnership was severed back in the day

Mobileye’s Self-Driving Secret? 200PB of Data

At CES, Mobileye describes the computer vision tech and natural language models that use an industry-leading dataset for autonomous vehicle training.

www.businesswire.com

Nowadays I believe they've more or less stopped collecting visual data and just focus on "semantics" that are sourced from the fleet, those break out road markings and signage etc that feed into their maps

Mobileye REM™ | Road Experience Management

Mobileye’s Road Experience Management™ (REM) is the basis of a highly accurate, constantly refreshed HD map built for AVs that can benefit driver-assist tech and road maintenance.

www.mobileye.com

Last year Mobileye said their fleet was around 70million vehicles


And here's an example of NVIDIA's DRIVE system with an implementation similar to FSD Beta (aka Autosteer on City Streets) in a Mercedes

 

[Words of HABIT]

2024 will introduce a new vehicle in partner with Geely. Who is Geely?Sounds like a test bed is all for their hardware? This is all going to be too late IMO.

Wikipedia knows:

Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co., Ltd. (ZGH), commonly known as Geely (/ˈdʒiːli/ JEE-lee; Chinese: 吉利; pinyin: Jílì; lit. 'auspicious'), is a Chinese multinational automotive company headquartered in Hangzhou, Zhejiang. The company is privately held by Chinese billionaire entrepreneur Li Shufu. It was established in 1986 and entered the automotive industry in 1997 with its Geely Auto subsidiary.[18] Geely Auto is currently the seventh largest automobile manufacturer in China, with 1.328 million sales in China in 2021. Globally, the group sold over 2.2 million cars in 2021,[19] and over 17,926 plug-in electric vehicles in January 2022.[20]

The company produces and sells vehicles under its own branding such as Geely Auto, Geometry, Livan, and Zeekr, and under foreign-located subsidiaries, such as Volvo Cars, Polestar, Lynk & Co, Proton, and Lotus, as well as commercial only vehicles under the London EV Company, Ouling Auto and Farizon Auto brands. It also produces electric vehicles under some of the previously listed brandings, and motorcycles under its subsidiary Zhejiang Geely Ming Industrial (Jiming and Geely brands), Qianjiang Motorcycle(QJMotor and Keeway brands) and Benelli. In September 2022, the group acquired a 7.6% shareholding in Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc, the ultra-luxury British performance brand Aston Martin.[21]

 

[nativewolf]

Waymo robotaxi by Zeekr spy shots

Zeekr is developing a vehicle that will hit U.S. roads as part of the Waymo One self-driving taxi service.

www.motorauthority.com

 

[SOULPEDL]

Has Dan O’Dude reviewed Mobileye system yet? I didn’t see any hit pieces in that direction, maybe it wasn't on network TV was why. It could be he’s not as concerned with it as compared to Tesla FSD.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The OEMs are already using tech from other companies like NVIDIA and Mobileye, both of which have implementations capable of attempting urban driving like Tesla's Autosteer on City Streets (what most people call FSD these days).

FSD gets all the attention but this type of licensing has been happening for a long time now, Tesla was using Mobileye's gear back in the early AP1 days. Mercedes is using NVIDIA's Drive Orin, Mobileye is in who knows how many brands around the world -- figuring out who uses what requires some digging.

This is one dilusional take lol. Name some other auto companies that have FSD beta capabilities vehicles on the road today….not in the future or their announcements. Today. That are able to perform the same things FSD beta does.

Mercedes doesn’t. Mobile Eye doesn’t have any vehicles on the road doing it on commercial vehicles that are out in the world today. The only auto companies that have anything comparable are in China..and we all know the reasons how and why.

 

[AndrewZ]

Has Dan O’Dude reviewed Mobileye system yet? I didn’t see any hit pieces in that direction, maybe it wasn't on network TV was why. It could be he’s not as concerned with it as compared to Tesla FSD.

Tesla is the only company who puts this stuff in consumer hands, Mobileye and NVIDIA's equivalents to Autosteer on City Streets are all limited to their test vehicles/drivers.

If you really dig into the history, disagreement around deployment/strategy is what likely led to Tesla and Mobileye ending their partnership and Tesla suddenly deciding to do its own thing, collecting and annotating its own set of visual data, etc.

This is one dilusional take lol. Name some other auto companies that have FSD beta capabilities vehicles on the road today….not in the future or their announcements. Today. That are able to perform the same things FSD beta does.

Mercedes doesn’t. Mobile Eye doesn’t have any vehicles on the road doing it on commercial vehicles that are out in the world today. The only auto companies that have anything comparable are in China..and we all know the reasons how and why.

Here for your clicking and reading enjoyment

Disengagement Reports - California DMV

Autonomous vehicle manufacturers that are testing vehicles in the Autonomous Vehicle Tester (AVT) Program and AVT Driverless Program are required to submit annual reports to share how often their vehicles disengaged from autonomous mode during tests.

www.dmv.ca.gov

Open up the 2022 AV Disengagement Reports spreadsheet, filter by manufacturer, this tracks all of the disengagement data from various companies trying to build out autonomous vehicle systems within California -- Mobileye is listed as Intel.

You can even count up the unique VINs to get an idea of how many vehicles are out there, assuming they've registered a disengagement in the reporting period.

 

[SOULPEDL]

They say they've been collecting and annotating visual data for 25+ years and have 200PB of it, as far as I know they're the commercial originators of all this and are what Tesla based its system on after their partnership was severed back in the day

Mobileye’s Self-Driving Secret? 200PB of Data

At CES, Mobileye describes the computer vision tech and natural language models that use an industry-leading dataset for autonomous vehicle training.

www.businesswire.com

Nowadays I believe they've more or less stopped collecting visual data and just focus on "semantics" that are sourced from the fleet, those break out road markings and signage etc that feed into their maps

Mobileye REM™ | Road Experience Management

Mobileye’s Road Experience Management™ (REM) is the basis of a highly accurate, constantly refreshed HD map built for AVs that can benefit driver-assist tech and road maintenance.

www.mobileye.com

Last year Mobileye said their fleet was around 70million vehicles


And here's an example of NVIDIA's DRIVE system with an implementation similar to FSD Beta (aka Autosteer on City Streets) in a Mercedes

Wait, is that an add on Lidar unit on the roof of the Mercedes? Looks good. /s

 

[bkp_duke]

Tesla is the only company who puts this stuff in consumer hands, Mobileye and NVIDIA's equivalents to Autosteer on City Streets are all limited to their test vehicles/drivers.

If you really dig into the history, disagreement around deployment/strategy is what likely led to Tesla and Mobileye ending their partnership and Tesla suddenly deciding to do its own thing, collecting and annotating its own set of visual data, etc.


Here for your clicking and reading enjoyment

Disengagement Reports - California DMV

Autonomous vehicle manufacturers that are testing vehicles in the Autonomous Vehicle Tester (AVT) Program and AVT Driverless Program are required to submit annual reports to share how often their vehicles disengaged from autonomous mode during tests.

www.dmv.ca.gov

Open up the 2022 AV Disengagement Reports spreadsheet, filter by manufacturer, this tracks all of the disengagement data from various companies trying to build out autonomous vehicle systems within California -- Mobileye is listed as Intel.

You can even count up the unique VINs to get an idea of how many vehicles are out there, assuming they've registered a disengagement in the reporting period.

Been over this in the Waymo thread. Horribly incomplete data set there on that site.

 

[AndrewZ]

Been over this in the Waymo thread. Horribly incomplete data set there on that site.

Last time I looked at the one where Tesla's data were broken out, dang near everything was redacted and the entire thing was all but intentionally useless.

Haven't actually gone through these data in detail myself, I just know there's a lot happening that gets very little attention and I believe the companies prefer it that way.

 

[GhostSkater]

Today something happened that I didn't think it was possible

Found one of those that spew every single FUD point about EVs in real life, and as it happens, it's one of my best friend that we know each other close to 15 years now and we see each other almost weekly

Every, single, one.

That EVs haven't proven that they can replace ICE yet

That the grid won't handle EVs if everybody has one, didn't matter that I showed him on the spot the grid demand curve and that at night when most people would be charging there is tons of spare demand

That he couldn't charge one in his house because it takes too much power. When I asked how much he drives daily and calculate how much power/energy it would take to charge that back, and that he could do in a regular outlet, still didn't accept

That he knows that EVs are worse than ICE for the environment, no matter what he wouldn't believe, that the data Tesla shows can't be trusted because he saw people saying it so

That once the batteries dies, it gets send to South East Asia for it to be disposed, completely ignoring that a dead battery is the most valuable ore for someone making new batteries

That the life of a EV is short and the battery dies soon, much quicker than ICE, by this point I stopped refuting and just nodded

Shame, because I though he was a smart guy knowing him all this time