Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[growler23]

Making less money now is not a good way to bring more affordable EVs to the masses more quickly. You want high profits now so you can invest more money into building more factories. This is why Tesla started out making high margin low volume cars.

OTOH when less than 20% of the public want an EV regardless of price, there is a massive information gap you will need to bridge before there is mass adoption of EVs. Ignoring this problem while minimizing current profits works against Tesla's master plan.

It also bears repeating that the masses don't necessarily want affordable EVs. They need affordable transport.
What's terrible for the environment? An ICE car. An EV (less bad but still bad). What's better for the environment? No car.
In Elon-ish terms: general-use Robotaxi ((soon may it appear)) can advance the mission by greatly reducing the number of atoms we have to dig up, the number of atoms we have to transport, and the number of electrons we need to raise to a higher energy level, to transition The Fleet. The Fleet will be much smaller. Best EV is no EV.
Don't want to count on this in any specific timeframe, but don't want to forget it.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Classic cup with handle on daily chart
Bullish

 

[2daMoon]

One thing we have learned in recent years is that fidelity to a political tribe causes people to act irrationally.

It may quickly become an article of faith that to be a good conservative you have to be anti-EV. This is the kind of irrational belief that can last a lifetime.

This is hardly something that has been learned in recent years.

It is common knowledge and accepted as being an aspect of the human condition which has always existed, and, at some level must have played a part in survival of the species.

You can fool some of the people all of the time, and you can fool all of the people some of the time, but, you can't fool all of the people all of the time.

This is as true today as it was in Lincoln's time, or in Socrates' time.

 

[GOVA]

Advertising has many faces.

Tesla will not pay corrupt media an effing penny.

 

[insaneoctane]

As a general rule the dealer model costs between 20 and 30 percent of retail sales, depending on country (that includes sales, F&I, warranty profit, service profit.). The equivalent for Tesla is around 15%.

I have no data to support, but this difference (15% vs 20%-30%) is staggeringly lower than I would have thought! I see the dealership model as unscrupulous, wildly greedy and inefficient.

 

[Knightshade]

Advertising has many faces.

Tesla will not pay corrupt media an effing penny.

If only Tesla has access to some other platform that was, I dunno, owned by their largest shareholder or something.

 

[Stormy24]

Classic cup with handle on daily chart
Bullish View attachment 976234

Bull something…..

 

[Rarity]

In short, nobody arguing for “advertising” to increase profitability or sales seems to understand 21st century marketing. More specifically, 21st century promotion including AÍ aided targeting. In this world nobody cares if non-prospects even recognize the name. In this world BEV adoption is similar to that of telephones, refrigerators, household electricity, cellular phones, automobiles , commercial airplane travel and all those other revolutionary products.

It's just baffling. Musk is one of the OG 21st century marketers in introducing technology to the masses. He knows this stuff cold and intuitively, going back to his days of X.com's war for survival with Confinity. He has conviction about what works and what doesn't and when it would work and when it wouldn't.

But some people don't want to rely on Musk's deep and long-held convictions. That he has conviction is his best trait as CEO.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Classic cup with handle on daily chart
Bullish View attachment 976234

Was just noticing, since Jan '22 (Edit: meant '23) there's a nice channel and we could be riding the lower limit.
I'm just wondering... what is Bullish in a tanking economy? I imagine folks dipping into 401Ks S&P funds (TSLA along with it) just to keep up with inflation.

 

[Singuy]

People say they don't pay attention, but it's not true. Advertising can literally brainwash you to prefer a less tasty soda for example. For Tesla, I'd just be happy with basic specs being sold. Price, ease of home charging etc.

Only 19% of buyers would buy an EV regardless of price right now. That's terrible.

Something is off with that number. I would believe it if all people surveyed leaned right, but if only 19% of the people are willing to buy EVs while the other 81% will not no matter what, then it seems like the Whitehouse is focusing on the wrong agenda.

Also it almost seem like there's a net hate for EVs, as If they surveyed motor heads and not a typical citizen. Only a die hard motor head dies on a hill and would not take an EV even if it's free.

 

[SOULPEDL]

What’s with all the ad talk? Same points made as last time and time before. Why are some second guessing Tesla. It’s never an issue here when the stock rises.

 

[Rarity]

What’s with all the ad talk? Same points made as last time and time before. Why are some second guessing Tesla. It’s never an issue here when the stock rises.

Beats me. Why focus on ads when we should instead be focusing on superchargers to convince the 81%.

 

[Singuy]

Was just noticing, since Jan '22 there's a nice channel and we could be riding the lower limit.
I'm just wondering... what is Bullish in a tanking economy? I imagine folks dipping into 401Ks S&P funds (TSLA along with it) just to keep up with inflation.

Dipping into 401k is not bullish as that is selling stocks for survival.

Also inflation is like the last thing that happens in a tanking economy. Deflation is usually what happens.

 

[Drumheller]

Rob delves into survey results which really point to needing to advertise. It's surprising to me how unknowledgeable most people are about EVs in general and Tesla specifically. Clearly, we here on TMC are a small minority.

I know Farzed earlier pointed to this survey as evidence that price cuts were more important than advertising to sell more cars. But I side with Rob on this topic. It seems obvious to me some informational advertising would go a long way to opening up the market to many more potential buyers. I hope the folks at Tesla (and Elon in particular) watch this.

Yes, the anti-EV lies and misinformation has been spread daily for years on social media. I still use Facebook and every day I see posts about an oil change being better than replacing a $20,000 battery, not having to worry about your ev catching fire, how evs are for men that can't change a tire, etc. It's relentless and each post has thousands of likes and comments bashing Tesla.

Very recently, perhaps this week, I started seeing posts from a singular account about how the cybertruck is "America's truck" and how it will be thr best truck, etc. Each one is met with ridicule by the Facebook crowd , but I think that may actually be some marketing efforts by Tesla.

Reddit is very toxic against Tesla and Elon.

And I still get asked basic ev questions (range? Isn't charging super slow?) . I was asked those again last night.

I don't know the right answer / approach but I do see the damage done by years of FUD being spread every day.

 

[GrandEnigma]

Something is off with that number. I would believe it if all people surveyed leaned right, but if only 19% of the people are willing to buy EVs while the other 81% will not no matter what, then it seems like the Whitehouse is focusing on the wrong agenda.

Also it almost seem like there's a net hate for EVs, as If they surveyed motor heads and not a typical citizen. Only a die hard motor head dies on a hill and would not take an EV even if it's free.

I think that stat is likely correct. Many people think about a car once a decade or so, or have very specific needs, or brand loyalty, the type of drive train the vehicle has is often not the motivating factor in a vehicle purchase, nor is 0-60 times of 3sec. For example, I have 5 kids, my options are mini van or 3 row SUV. There are few options available to me so I am going to simply get what best fits my needs, an $80k Model X or $90k R1S are the only options available to me currently if I want an EV SUV, and there are no mini vans. EVs are still a fairly niche market. There are many classes of vehicles that there are still simply no viable alternatives for at the same price point. The only no brainier EV purchase for me is someone looking for a compact sedan, IE a Model 3.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Dipping into 401k is not bullish as that is selling stocks for survival.

Also inflation is like the last thing that happens in a tanking economy. Deflation is usually what happens.

Agree. My question was "What is Bullish in a Tanking economy?" (ie, jumping in an elevator going down, stays still?)

 

[thx1139]

Rob delves into survey results which really point to needing to advertise. It's surprising to me how unknowledgeable most people are about EVs in general and Tesla specifically. Clearly, we here on TMC are a small minority.

I know Farzed earlier pointed to this survey as evidence that price cuts were more important than advertising to sell more cars. But I side with Rob on this topic. It seems obvious to me some informational advertising would go a long way to opening up the market to many more potential buyers. I hope the folks at Tesla (and Elon in particular) watch this.

I used to spend time pushing Tesla, but cant do that in public anymore because of Elon. So now I spend that time fighting EV FUD. The amount of FUD and misinformation going around is amazing and this survey shows it. I cant believe that Farzed came away with price cuts is what is needed. Just yesterday I got into a conversation with someone who believes only a few EVs are available under $100K. Look if someone thinks that is the case they wont go out and check out Tesla.Com to find out that nope that isnt the case. Doesnt do any good for EVs prices to go down if people dont know that the prices have gone down.

Not sure if education is advertising. I dont want some stupid Tesla commercial with a Model Y up on some mountain or some celebrity driving a car. I think general information that combats the FUD and misinformation.

 

[Singuy]

I think that stat is likely correct. Many people think about a car once a decade or so, or have very specific needs, or brand loyalty, the type of drive train the vehicle has is often not the motiviting factor in a vehicle purchase. For example, I have 5 kids, my options are mini van or 3 row SUV. There are few options available to me so I am going to simply get what best fits my needs, an $80k Model X or $90k R1S are the only options available to me currently if I want an EV SUV, and there are no mini vans. EVs are still a fairly niche market.

Yeah but the question asked, would you take an ev if it's free or any price you wish it to be?

 

[Knightshade]

It's just baffling. Musk is one of the OG 21st century marketers in introducing technology to the masses. He knows this stuff cold and intuitively, going back to his days of X.com's war for survival with Confinity. He has conviction about what works and what doesn't and when it would work and when it wouldn't.

But some people don't want to rely on Musk's deep and long-held convictions. That he has conviction is his best trait as CEO.

Elon is brilliant at tech and engineering--- he's got a pretty poor track record when it comes to understanding that what is personally super cool to him might not be to EVERYONE though.


Remember he's the one who wanted to drop the name paypal and keep using x, even though he kept being shown reams of real-world real-customer data that everyone actually using, or considering using, the product said he was wrong and that people thought x.com was a porn site and wasn't going to trust them with banking info, but they loved paypal? Elon was wrong because X.com is cool to him and was unwilling to believe that wasn't true of everyone. This is a lesson he never learned and now he's doing it with the formerly-bird-app too.


See also what happened with the Yoke-- first "everyone will love it and it's your only choice" then forced to "Ok we'll give you a choice" then finally "ok yoke is not even the default and the few who love it like me can pay extra for it to cover the MFG complexity of having 2 wheel options for no reason in a company that hates options but I REALLY like the yoke"

See also Teslas dismissal of the idea of blind spot indicators near the side mirrors-- for years-- who needs that when FSD TOMORROW? But the highland refresh finally adds em because it was getting embarrassing holding to that conviction at this point when even basic econ cars had the feature.


Early adopters of new tech are more likely to be the sort Elons thinking is most in line with about what they'll like... but that's not true of Joe Average that you're gonna need to sell to eventually if you want to be mass market.

Heck Elon himself has admitted getting some stuff wrong (over-reliance on robots during the Model 3 ramp for example) and some people STILL insist we should just trust he's always right about everything forever-- it's bizarre.

Elon is right a lot. Far more than most. But some people don't want to admit he's not always right about everything.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Tesla Giga Texas is looking to employ 60k workers when Cybertruck ramps: report

Tesla director of manufacturing at Giga Texas Jason Shawhan recently gave a rare talk about the facility's existing operations.

www.teslarati.com

Texas Gigafactory employees

• "12,277 employees that Tesla confirmed at the end of 2022"
• "20,000 workers today"
• "Once the Cybertruck’s production is ramped, Tesla expects to employ a whopping 60,000 people in Gigafactory Texas. "