Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

So roughly 1 year in 7, TSLA is close to fair value. The other 6 years are constantly referred to as short term and buying opportunities. We've been in our current buying opportunity for nearly 2 years.

The economy and general market state are playing a large part in the decline of TSLA, but I think the lowered expectations for Q3 P&D is part of it too. Plus most auto stocks are quite down today as well.

It is true TSLA just can't seem to catch a break, but I'd say that's largely due to the insanely high options market centered around TSLA. Our stock is a plaything for the money makers right now, and until something happens to break it out of that rut I don't think we'll be seeing anything close to ATH's for us.

It's why I stick to my opinion we won't cross over $415 again until late 2025, no matter what positive catalysts occur. I don't think Wall Street will let us go that high until they are positioned for it and have exhausted the options game around TSLA, and I don't see that happening for a few years yet.

Long term TSLA is going to Mars, but short term we are stuck in the mud at Boca Chica. In my honest opinion.

 

[betstarship]

The economy and general market state are playing a large part in the decline of TSLA, but I think the lowered expectations for Q3 P&D is part of it too. Plus most auto stocks are quite down today as well.

It is true TSLA just can't seem to catch a break, but I'd say that's largely due to the insanely high options market centered around TSLA. Our stock is a plaything for the money makers right now, and until something happens to break it out of that rut I don't think we'll be seeing anything close to ATH's for us.

It's why I stick to my opinion we won't cross over $415 again until late 2025, no matter what positive catalysts occur. I don't think Wall Street will let us go that high until they are positioned for it and have exhausted the options game around TSLA, and I don't see that happening for a few years yet.

Long term TSLA is going to Mars, but short term we are stuck in the mud at Boca Chica. In my honest opinion.

With index funds owning more TSLA than Elon Musk, I'm not sure of that price target anymore. If TSLA continues to execute, the investment is still great relatively to anything else out there as an individual stock.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I did tow it once for a flat tire, but that's not a failure of the car.

That's it. Tesla should just buy Goodyear and make tires more reliable - offer them 2B (3.5B Market Cap) and have them do the wiper blades too. Same with the 12V battery (oh ya, they pretty much did that already). Seats? Check. Main battery, check.

So what's left that Tesla didn't make and could therefore fail in under 1M cycles? (I do worry about my music button wearing out, so I try to favor the touchscreen... )

 

[GOVA]

Watch out your limits. They will do their best to repeat December 2022.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla : Q3 will be lower production than Q2 due to upgrades
Wall St : yah, yah, whatever
Wall St now : OMG! Production below Q2, why didn't anyone tell us?

 

[JupiterMan]

It's why I stick to my opinion we won't cross over $415 again until late 2025, no matter what positive catalysts occur. I don't think Wall Street will let us go that high until they are positioned for it and have exhausted the options game around TSLA, and I don't see that happening for a few years yet.

I disagree.

TSLA price should go up as soon as there is something tangible that can be baked into analysts financial forecasts.

One of the most likely short term is a licensing deal on FSD with a large OEM. That could be a significant moment.

 

[jerry33]

The nice thing is that ultimately, push will come to shove. FSD will be out, bot will be in production. All those doubters and haters will be crying goober tears while we swim laps in our pools full of their money. And I won't shed a tear for them.

That would be nice, but the doubters and haters will just find something else to doubt and hate.

 

[LodiEVFan]

When people throw the lithium mining argument in my face, I always point out that my lithium was mined once while every single litre of fuel they burn has to be continually mined; every time they use their vehicle someone somewhere is mining more fuel for it.

Great response. I will use that one.

 

[Mengy]

I disagree.

TSLA price should go up as soon as there is something tangible that can be baked into analysts financial forecasts.

One of the most likely short term is a licensing deal on FSD with a large OEM. That could be a significant moment.

I agree, but "should" and "will" are two different things. We haven't seen much of a rise from everyone adopting NACS, and I honestly don't think we'll see a permanent bump from anyone licensing FSD.

At least, not until the revenues are being posted regularly every quarter, but that takes time, which would allow WS to reposition and prepare while still holding TSLA down to the best of their ability.

Optimus impressing the AI world isn't bumping us up, CT's driving around and rolling out of Austin hasn't bumped us up, China producing Highlands en masse hasn't bumped us up. I simply believe WS won't allow us to go up right now, not in any meaningful or lasting way at least. They are likely going to walk us down again as low as they can before all of these future revenue sources start posting meaningful revenues a year or two from now.

It's inevitable that TSLA will go up, the financial math will dictate it has to in time, but for right NOW I don't think much of anything can.

 

[AndrewZ]

Tesla : Q3 will be lower production than Q2 due to upgrades
Wall St : yah, yah, whatever
Wall St now : OMG! Production below Q2, why didn't anyone tell us?

What's happening today is again all about treasuries and rates, not Q3 delivery speculation.

There are massive moves happening in treasuries. Bond yields go up, long-dated risk equities go down.

 

[LodiEVFan]

You're indeed correct...but the folks on the other side of the argument comparing lithium to gas might be better convinced (if it's possible to convince them) just comparing mining to mining, or weights to weights, even if the items aren't exactly analagous. The real trouble is that they literally have no idea about the current state of things in terms of the mining or mass of stuff the ICE economy requires.

For example:

Comparing an entire lithium ion battery vs gasoline:
- That battery weighs about 1000 lbs (very round number estimate). People have a feel for what 1000 lbs is, and they think it is a lot.
- Well, how much gasoline does your car burn? Most people literally never see the gasoline that goes into the car, or where it goes, and have no idea how much it actually is. Make them realize the numbers and MAYBE they'll make a connection. My first line on this: the Tesla's battery is warrantied for 120,000 miles (or whatever it is for your car), and is expected to last much much longer. But, sticking just with that 120,000 mile warranty -- how much gasoline does it take to go that far? If their car gets 30mpg, then it takes 4,000 gallons of gas to go 120,000 miles. 4,000 gallons of gas would weigh about 24,000 pounds...and it just gets burned up and sent into the air as ~75,000 pounds of CO2, plus other worse things. Hey Mr. EV_Hater: are you really comparing a recycleable 1000lb battery to the 24,000 lbs of gasoline your car is going to burn up to go 120,000 miles?

Realizing that lithium isn't the fuel, comparing green electricity vs gasoline:
- Yup...but another 1000 lbs of solar panels (probably a big over-estimate?) on my roof will last 25+ years and provide my EV with all the "fuel" it needs, plus power my house. Honestly...if the average driver only goes about 40 miles per day, that requires about 10 kWh of electricity each day, so about 2 or 3 kW of solar panels. So, about 8 of Tesla's 400 Watt panels? A few hundred pounds?
- No, seriously Mr. EV_Hater...how are you going to seriously compare a 1000 lb battery plus 1000 lbs of solar panels to the 10,000+ gallons, or 60,000+ pounds of gasoline you're going to burn in the next 25 years?

Even better! Thanks.

 

[wipster]

For me, paywalls can be so frustrating in that teaser headlines sometimes really make me wonder just what possibly could the article be discussing?

Today, we have the Wall St Journal: This Ford vs GM Feud Could Shape the Future of EVs in America

In fairness, the word "could" is rather all-encompassing in its spanning the spectrum of possibilities.

It appears that it deals with the use of Chinese battery technology by Ford... GM is fighting it. Hence the "feud"

 

[Knightshade]

TSLA price should go up as soon as there is something tangible that can be baked into analysts financial forecasts.

One of the most likely short term is a licensing deal on FSD with a large OEM. That could be a significant moment.

Still baffled anyone finds this likely short term.... From Teslas side it'd require a (relatively) finished product, which they don't have (they're in the midst of Yet Another Nearly Complete Rewrite per Elon himself)- and it'd require Tesla mandating a bunch of HW they're still not finalized on in their own cars (S/X, Highland, and Y all appear to have different variants of the HW>3 configs) as well as mandating certain minimum requirements for all the vehicle control capabilities, redundancies, ties into other HW in the vehicle, etc... and from the OEM side it'd require abandoning existing contracts with folks like Mobileeye, and entirely redesigning vehicles and manufacturing to accommodate the Tesla mandated HW and controls and redundancies AND sourcing all the parts to do all that AND refitting factories to handle the changes. All while they're also currently on strike for the big 3.

I'm not saying this isn't a thing that'd happen some day... but "short term" is exactly 0.00% chance.

Remember it took 7 years from Tesla saying they're open to other OEMs accessing superchargers till the first deal was inked... and superchargers were a "complete" product requiring virtually no comparable "change" from the OEMs other than one part on the car.

 

[growler23]

Tesla : Q3 will be lower production than Q2 due to upgrades
Wall St : yah, yah, whatever
Wall St now : OMG! Production below Q2, why didn't anyone tell us?

I think it was actually:
Tesla: Q3 will be lower (or same) as Q2 due to upgrades
Wall St: Demand problems. Stock go down.
Wall St now: OMG! Production below Q2. Fail to meet expectations. Stock go down.

That way they get a double-dip cone. (Not sure how that relates to a cup with handle.)

 

[AudubonB]

It appears that it deals with the use of Chinese battery technology by Ford... GM is fighting it. Hence the "feud"

You do understand my query dealt with the question: "What is going to shape the future of EVs in America?"? That it might be any tiff between F and GM....Nope, WSJ. Try again.

 

[AndrewZ]

Still baffled anyone finds this likely short term.... From Teslas side it'd require a (relatively) finished product, which they don't have (they're in the midst of Yet Another Nearly Complete Rewrite per Elon himself)- and it'd require Tesla mandating a bunch of HW they're still not finalized on in their own cars (S/X, Highland, and Y all appear to have different variants of the HW>3 configs) as well as mandating certain minimum requirements for all the vehicle control capabilities, redundancies, ties into other HW in the vehicle, etc... and from the OEM side it'd require abandoning existing contracts with folks like Mobileeye, and entirely redesigning vehicles and manufacturing to accommodate the Tesla mandated HW and controls and redundancies AND sourcing all the parts to do all that AND refitting factories to handle the changes. All while they're also currently on strike for the big 3.

I'm not saying this isn't a thing that'd happen some day... but "short term" is exactly 0.00% chance.

Remember it took 7 years from Tesla saying they're open to other OEMs accessing superchargers till the first deal was inked... and superchargers were a "complete" product requiring virtually no comparable "change" from the OEMs other than one part on the car.

The Tesla IR team is already telling institutional investors that any revenue from this is years in the future

 

[scaesare]

I think rather than arguing, when folks drop negative pronouncements about lithium mining or battery manufacture (they can't be recycled you know!! /s), just ask them "What would you propose as an alternative", and they will have no answer...

Argument from someone on a forum I run:

When your home electric bill is ALREADY over $850/mo without EV charging, I cannot fathom the expense of having it connected, drawing power even at reduced amts, and having to make the home modifications to accommodate the panel being a good offset to a $50/tank of gas 2xmo due to hybrid work schedule (2 office/3 home). So No, we will not be buying an EV for the VERY forseeable future!!

Comment from another non-EV-owning member:

Humorously, some people don’t make the connection of electric bill going up $100/mo but gas bill dropping $200 as a win. Seriously, I have seen people sell their EV truck because their electric bill went up $125/mo but couldn’t do the math that their gas truck *had* been costing them $400/mo when it was $4/gal.

“Home modification” A 220v outlet in the garage is typically not that expensive – that’s all most people would need.

My additional comments:

Yeah, It’s why I encourage calculating, TCO. Folks often get hung up on one aspect of ownership and don’t look at the big picture.

Certainly, usage plays a role… my TCO/savings over an ICE vehicle is different now that I’m driving a couple hundred miles a month, rather than 2500. Then again, a Model 3 today costs ~1/3rd what I paid for my S… so the actual cost to own surprises many.

And I’m not even sure you need to bother with a 240V outlet… Using that $50 2x a month example for a hybrid:

My buddy gets somewhere in the mid 40’s MPG with his hybrid. Let’s be generous and call it 50MPG. And AAA says the national gas price is $3.83. Let’s be conservative and say $3.50/gal

That means ((($50/$3.50)*50MPG)/60days) = 11.9 miles per day driven on average.

A Model 3 will charge at a rate of 4-5 miles per hour (depending on if you have a 15 or 20 amp 120V circuit… garages often have the latter). Worst case: you plug in when you get and your have re-couped your charge in 3 hours on average. No additional home circuit cost necessary. And no wall charger.. the cable that comes with the car is just fine.

Original person's response: **CRICKETS**


Conclusion: some people don't want to let facts get in the way...

 

[totoro722]

For me, paywalls can be so frustrating in that teaser headlines sometimes really make me wonder just what possibly could the article be discussing?

Today, we have the Wall St Journal: This Ford vs GM Feud Could Shape the Future of EVs in America

In fairness, the word "could" is rather all-encompassing in its spanning the spectrum of possibilities.

Try this link. This Ford vs. GM Feud Could Shape the Future of EVs in America

 

[SOULPEDL]

Cool, so still more pricey, but not far away and not for long!

"The average price of a new electric vehicle was $53,469 in July, higher than the $48,334 average for gasoline-powered cars, according to Kelley Blue Book data."

 

[Usain]

Try this link. This Ford vs. GM Feud Could Shape the Future of EVs in America

Letting Ford license LFP technology from China is better for the planet.

But the real intent of the IRA is to help the US compete with China. And so far it seems to be working.

We are about to see if the Biden administration is more concerned about the climate crisis or politics.

Either way, it won't shape the future of EVs in America like the headline says. There is this little company called Tesla that will continue to dominate no matter what.