Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

This could explain why the Model 3 Highland isn't using front/rear castings - could it be getting a single casting?

Haha, no! Tesla is working on possible ways to cast the underbody of the forthcoming Model 2/Robotaxi at Giga Texas as we speak. They have not settled on an approach yet, as always they are experimenting with multiple technologies and will choose the best one. This was covered here last wee as the 'sand die-casting' discusion, along with a potential 16K ton Gigapress.

Gigacasting 2.0: Tesla reinvents carmaking with quiet breakthrough | REUTERS (Sep 14, 2023)

The innovation is rapid, low-cost production of prototype dies for the gigapress: think "weeks vs. years" to get a new candidate die into testing, and $30K for each prototype vs. $1M (keep in mind they may need to go through half a dozen prototypes before reaching a production-ready design). The ability to make their own dies for the gigapress is a huge win for Tesla, that's why they're spending the effort on R&D to create this tech.

So this won't happen in Shanghai, or for the Model 3 / Highland, or on the timeline you suggest. It'll happen in Austin in time for Model 2/Robotaxi, then in Monterrey, MX then go wide... Of course, roto-REUTERS drops the soap.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Usain]

Cool, so still more pricey, but not far away and not for long!

"The average price of a new electric vehicle was $53,469 in July, higher than the $48,334 average for gasoline-powered cars, according to Kelley Blue Book data."

I'd like to know how the average is calculated. Is that just the average MSRP over all offered models or is it the average transaction price? Or is it something else? Without context, those numbers are meaningless.

 

[Cosmacelf]

For me, paywalls can be so frustrating in that teaser headlines sometimes really make me wonder just what possibly could the article be discussing?

Today, we have the Wall St Journal: This Ford vs GM Feud Could Shape the Future of EVs in America

In fairness, the word "could" is rather all-encompassing in its spanning the spectrum of possibilities.

Can people see the article via the other link that was posted? It is a shockingly well written and researched article by the WSJ. Nuances about the IRA and what “manufactured in the US” really means. I believe Tesla has positioned itself to be immune from all of this, so it’s really political jockeying between GM and Ford.

I actually agree with Ford and don’t see the problem. Maybe they just haven’t bribed the right people yet.

 

[Usain]

Try this link. This Ford vs. GM Feud Could Shape the Future of EVs in America

Something else occurs to me. Ford and GM look so pathetic. Both are depending on foreign companies to build all of their batteries. And there are no plans to ever make batteries themselves. Stellantis is even further behind.

Battery Day was three years ago. All they had to do was watch and learn.

 

[LodiEVFan]

Ugh.

I'm hoping some support shows up as we get closer to the final trading day before end of the month. Bound to be traders wanting to get in before the Q3 numbers

Or AFTER Q3 numbers, the way it has been acting.

 

[Usain]

Can people see the article via the other link that was posted? It is a shockingly well written and researched article by the WSJ. Nuances about the IRA and what “manufactured in the US” really means. I believe Tesla has positioned itself to be immune from all of this, so it’s really political jockeying between GM and Ford.

I actually agree with Ford and don’t see the problem. Maybe they just haven’t bribed the right people yet.

Yes, I could read without paywall.

And I totally agree. It's a very good article and I also side with Ford on this.

I followed the sausage-making of the IRA very closely and I never got an impression that a licensing deal would exclude a car from qualifying for the tax credit. It was always about where the battery was manufactured and where the raw materials came from.

The ironic thing here is that GM is complaining about this when every car in their lineup is riddled with Chinese parts.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'd like to know how the average is calculated. Is that just the average MSRP over all offered models or is it the average transaction price? Or is it something else? Without context, those numbers are meaningless.

Me too, but we couldn't even come to an agreement on what's an equivalent EV. Like "apples and oranges" according to some.

It's already cheaper for EVs IMO (gut) if we snapshot Tesla current prices x volume - and if not, then shortly. Trucks and Semi's are next. But they'll never admit that in writing.

 

[scaesare]

Cool, so still more pricey, but not far away and not for long!

"The average price of a new electric vehicle was $53,469 in July, higher than the $48,334 average for gasoline-powered cars, according to Kelley Blue Book data."

About a $5K difference.

Using quickly Googled national averages of:

Gas: $3.83/gal
MPG: 25.4
KWh: $0.23
Model 3 MPKWh: 4.17
Miles driven/month 1350

It costs $207/month for gas. It costs $74.50 for electricity. That's a $132.50 savings in "fuel" alone. In less than 38 months you've recouped that difference. Anything after that is profit. A typical car loan is 60 months.

Not to mention all the other things we know: , the lower "fuel" costs, maintenance, having a full charge every morning, etc...

Even if you trade your car in every 3 years, that $5K "premium" pays for itself, and then some. And the delta between EV and ICE is shrinking all the time...

 

[Knightshade]

Something else occurs to me. Ford and GM look so pathetic. Both are depending on foreign companies to build all of their batteries. And there are no plans to ever make batteries themselves. Stellantis is even further behind.

That's the same case for a large % of all parts in a car anymore from a legacy company though. The reason GM had to pull a bunch of corvette engineers over to EVs is they have so few actual engineers anywhere else anymore.

 

[wipster]

Can people see the article via the other link that was posted? It is a shockingly well written and researched article by the WSJ. Nuances about the IRA and what “manufactured in the US” really means. I believe Tesla has positioned itself to be immune from all of this, so it’s really political jockeying between GM and Ford.

I actually agree with Ford and don’t see the problem. Maybe they just haven’t bribed the right people yet.

Good article, but @AudubonB 's objection was to the insinuation of the misleading headline...

 

[Stretch2727]

Can people see the article via the other link that was posted? It is a shockingly well written and researched article by the WSJ. Nuances about the IRA and what “manufactured in the US” really means. I believe Tesla has positioned itself to be immune from all of this, so it’s really political jockeying between GM and Ford.

I actually agree with Ford and don’t see the problem. Maybe they just haven’t bribed the right people yet.

Tesla is buying all the LFP batteries they are using from China (CATL and BYD). They have not openly shared any plan to make LFP in house that I am aware, but I hope there is a plan.

Long term LFP may end up dominating the light vehicle market due to its cost and its durability. It's not always the technically superior product that wins. Many times lower cost, material availability and scale allow a solution to dominate.

Fords joint venture with CATL is at least a step in the right direction to bring this to North America. If nothing is done the battle might completely be lost to the Chinese battery manufacturers.

 

[cusetownusa]

About a $5K difference.

Using quickly Googled national averages of:

Gas: $3.83/gal
MPG: 25.4
KWh: $0.23
Model 3 MPKWh: 4.17
Miles driven/month 1350

It costs $207/month for gas. It costs $74.50 for electricity. That's a $132.50 savings if "fuel" alone. In less than 38 months you've recouped that difference. Anything after that is profit. A typical car loan is 60 months.

Anything after that is pure savings. Not to mention all the other things we know: , the lower "fuel" costs, maintenance, having a full charge every morning,

Even if you trade your car in every 3 years, that $5K "premium" pays for itself, and then some. And the delta between EV and ICE is shrinking all the time...

That’s a high electricity rate also. At least for around here. My September off peak rate was only about $0.05 per kWh. Compared to my Jeep that got less than 20mpg, the savings add up real quick.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

...
MPG: 25.4
Model 3 MPKWh: 4.17
...

The average midsize gasoline sedan efficiency is about 30mpg. And that's rating. I recently had a Sonata loaner and that was an easy 36mpg or a bit more.

 

[scaesare]

That’s a high electricity rate also. At least for around here. My September off peak rate was only about $0.05 per kWh. Compared to my Jeep that got less than 20mpg, the savings add up real quick.

The average midsize gasoline sedan efficiency is about 30mpg. And that's rating. I recently had a Sonata loaner and that was an easy 36mpg or a bit more.

Like I say, I used quickly Google'd numbers. But I'll let your two posts cancel out and the general point remains.

 

[kbM3]

According to Al Root EV inventory at dealer lots is 97 days, while traditional vehicles is 57 days. This is why the OEMs are cancelling their future EV plans, and also why Tesla did price cuts instead of advertising. Now the competition is destroyed for years into the future, giving Tesla all the batteries they need to make all the vehicles and battery storage they want.

I don’t get your logic.

If Tesla sells 1.8M vehicles this year, that comes directly from competition whether Tesla does it by advertising or price cuts or price raises. The bottom line is how many Teslas are being delivered. Not the price they’re selling for.

Tesla did not start a price war for marketshare. They would have VERY happily kept their prices up or raised them if they could have still sold 1.8M vehicles this year.

What i believe happened is that EV demand fell (or did not grow as fast as production) mostly because of interest rate increases. Only Tesla had the positive gross margins large enough to allow them to lower prices enough to offset that drop in demand.

Tesla didn’t start a price war. They started a production war with GigaBerlin and Austin. That’s when the (current) war began. The prices thereafter are purely set by consumer demand. Tesla has told us they set prices such that order flow roughly matches the near term production. That’s it. There’s no strategy meeting where they say ”Hey let’s cut prices to hurt everyone or to take even more marketshare“.

Most companies are demand constrained. So they can start a price war to generate enough demand to warrant increasing production. The difference is Tesla KNEW that they had enough cost advantage that they could decide to increase production as rapidly as possible from the beginning of this decade and trust that their cost advantage would allow pricing to sell out that production.

 

[Artful Dodger]

how Tesla will be able to source all the batteries its long term 50% YoY growth calls for. Given mineral and battery forecasts, it is possible, but it’ll have to be at the expense of all the other manufacturers

Not even close. All other manufacturers combined use half of what Tesla delivers in batteries already. But Tesla plans to expand auto production 10x, and match that battery use in Tesla Energy storage products. So even if all the other carmakers gave up on EVs completely, Tesla still plans still require 40x more batteries than legacy auto uses.

Tesla's plan to source these cells is public information: (Master Plan 3 PDF)

1. in-house 4680 cell manufacturing (built in 25GWh/yr modular factories)
2. DBE cathode plant for major battery material expense (1st one in Austin 2023Q4)
3. company-owned lithium hydroxide refinery (modular; photo-copier ready;2024)
4. long-term contracts and/or equity stakes in nickel & lithium production (as req'd)
5. research on energy density, alternate battery materials (Jeff Dahn 2nd 5-yr term)
6. improved vehicle efficiency mean lower energy use resulting in higher market share

So no, the ultimate success of Tesla's mission does not depend on starving other manufacturers of battery cells. Indeed, as Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas often says, Tesla may become a Tier 1 supplier of batteries to N. American automakers. They will be dragged (kicking and striking no doubt) into the EV future. Or their revived companies will be, after emerging from bankruptcy (only to compete with a Teslabot-augmented workforce).

 

[growler23]

Tesla is buying all the LFP batteries they are using from China (CATL and BYD). They have not openly shared any plan to make LFP in house that I am aware, but I hope there is a plan.

Long term LFP may end up dominating the light vehicle market due to its cost and its durability. It's not always the technically superior product that wins. Many times lower cost, material availability and scale allow a solution to dominate.

Fords joint venture with CATL is at least a step in the right direction to bring this to North America. If nothing is done the battle might completely be lost to the Chinese battery manufacturers.

Good points, and hopefully Tesla is (has been!) planning in light of the direction US policy is taking regarding China and materials.
I did read the WSJ article; it was pretty informative.

Regarding NCA batteries (not LFP), doesn't Tesla pretty much have that intellectual property owned in house? Could they not throw Ford and GM yet another lifeline by offering to license NCA 4680 technology to them, assuming F/GM can find their own raw material flows from an entity not "of concern"? Would that not just take the cake? (Not sure if this is feasible but would love to hear why not)...

And if somehow it does happen, FFS charge them for it this time!!! Just enough. For the mission, you know.

 

[Fred42]

Something else occurs to me. Ford and GM look so pathetic. Both are depending on foreign companies to build all of their batteries. And there are no plans to ever make batteries themselves. Stellantis is even further behind.

Battery Day was three years ago. All they had to do was watch and learn.

Tesla buys 100% of the battery cells it puts in its current products from foreign companies, and I have never read that they plan to make LFP cells themselves, which is what Ford's plant is intended to make.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's inevitable that TSLA will go up, the financial math will dictate it has to in time, but for right NOW I don't think much of anything can.

Haha, two** words: A. J. His recent 80-page research report was worth $1B per page on TSLA Mkt Cap, and now it's back to below where it started (just like they wanted, all along).

P.S. The pirates want TSLA to go up, so they can short it back down. A.J. least of all. **Twice a Quarter. It's all 'bout the churn, baby...

Morgan Stanley says Tesla can reach $400 per share | CNBC Television (Sep 11, 2023)

 

[jerry33]

Something else occurs to me. Ford and GM look so pathetic. Both are depending on foreign companies to build all of their batteries. And there are no plans to ever make batteries themselves. Stellantis is even further behind.

Battery Day was three years ago. All they had to do was watch and learn.

Problem is that they would have needed the right talent to watch and learn. Without the battery engineering folks, there was nothing they could do but watch. (Well, they also put out press releases on how many EVs they would make in 2023.)