Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cab]

this is a pretty massive pricing move made yesterday, surprised more digital ink wasn’t spilled here about it.

The RWD is a very popular model internationally with its pricing far cheaper than the AWD models, will be interesting to see how heavily USA sales skew towards it. Some big ASP impacts possibly.

View attachment 979514

The question for me on this car is "where is the battery made". It APPEARS it could be the same LFP battery made in China that the RWD Model 3s sent to China get. If so, then the rebate for the RWD Model Y will drop to just $3750 come January. If the long range Model Y ends up keeping the full rebate, then the delta between the two cars is pretty low. One of two things could happen in that scenario:

1. People decide to forgo the Model Y altogether as the $3750 rebate just doesn't quite make it affordable enough for them.
2. People decide to stretch for the MYLR since it is just " a little bit more".

Of course, the two options above are not mutually exclusive and both will likely occur. Indeed, I think we always think "Is the lower end car cheap enough to make it worth the loss of range, performance, etc.?"....but maybe the whole point is to make it just a tease to get people interested and then have them go for the more expensive car. Car companies have been doing that since the dawn of time!

 

[unk45]

I actually know a number of Brits, most well off and in various walks of life. They’re definitely a different breed of human. That’s neither good nor bad, it’s just true. They think uniquely.

Having lived in 16 countries during my peripatetic and, perhaps, unstable, life I do have a perspective on differences among people. I've noticed significant differences based on family background, ethnic identity and national residence/education/employment elements.

Since Tesla, much more since TSLA I've noticed much less differences among the road-vehicle-owning people regarding TSLA than about almost anything else. Among my present day acquaintances are people who live on every continent other than Antartica. Most of those with whom I have close connections are now TSLA shareholders, whether they live in countries served by TSLA or not. As for the British Isles and the subset thereof called colloquially 'Brits' my three decades or so living among them, working with them etc has taught me they cannot be clearly categorized and more than can be US citizens, which does not stop many people from forming firm opinions of how 'they' behave.

The TSLA factor though is always intriguing to me precisely because TSLA and Tesla are 'larger than life' in many places. Among my present acquaintances people in Brazil, former Russians living in other countries, Pakistani, Indian, Iranian, Greek, various Arab countries and a few in the USA too all are now TSLA shareholders. It's bizarre, perhaps, but nearly all the people I know well are TSLA shareholders, many of them without knowing anything of my own Tesla history.

As we think about volatility, Elon's 'bigger than life' image and worldwide expansion we might well realize that TSLA and Tesla awareness and positive image is very widespread among people who are likely part of the addressable market for Tesla products whenever Tesla enters their markets. Despite the NA, EU, China centric present business the global opportunities for sales and shareholding are enormous.

In the process of all that the local flavours, colours and perspectives will continue to become more important. Just consider that the Tesla UI is now available in more than twenty (20) languages. Tesl already knows the opportunity but production for cars, TE and trucks is still ramping as are countries served.

Sorry about these thoughts just now but @Krugerrand always makes me think! Cats everywhere, even my prized Onça-pintada, appreciate his contributions.
For the record I have only owned one vehicle branded after the English name for that graceful, reclusive cat.

By the way, many of those non-resident owners of TSLA do NOT have access to margin accounts for US-domiciled shares so these tend to be HODL, not least because many have high transaction costs. Many too live where imported vehicles have significant extra costs. TSLA is already negotiating to open various types of TE businesses, including energy storage and the growing propensity for something akin to VPP. We should not be surprised if elements if Tesla Energy evolves to be the first entry to many markets, with Supercharging being in place as Tesla vehicles begin to arrive.The Tesla model simply is irresistible!
(this last paragraph was suggested to me by experience this week with a pair of TSLA shareholders who are presently installing storage products to serve their residence in Brazil, where they are planning to house their BEVs. They are both frustrated that Tesla is not yet in Brazil, but they continue to hold their 2018 Model 3 reservations,)

 

[Snerruc]

I understand where you are coming from and I get the brand value of having a flagship model. On the surface it certainly seems like an unusual decision but keep in mind that the refreshed S/X are not exactly setting sales records in Europe and Asia. Part of that is the preference for smaller cars in the UK and Japan. I suspect that Tesla got market feedback that they were unlikely to match the previous numbers making it even less worth it.
Tesla opened reservations in RHD markets when they first revealed the new S/X and then canceled over a year later so it seems that they intended to produce the RHD at reveal time in 2021 but changed their minds later.

Edit: To get an idea of the scale of the model S sales collapse in Europe, Norway is at 87 YTD. The Taycan is at 146. So you have completion from 3/Y at the low end and Porsche/MB/BMW at the high end.
The prospect of selling 20-ish cars a quarter in the uk is probably why the RHD was cancelled

As I wrote before, the last rework of the S was an unforced error. Not only was it delayed months, but it moved the long range away from its market. Black trim is fine for the hot rod to differentiate it, but look at the Long Range’s competition. Almost all bright with considerably more options. If Tesla is going to stay in the upscale market ,they need to move to the market. I know never a popular opinion around here.

 

[CaliBear1]

Buy These 3 Stocks for Fortress Balance Sheets

Companies with favorable balance sheet characteristics are better equipped to weather downturns, can pursue growth opportunities, and give peace of mind to investors.

finance.yahoo.com

View attachment 979426

This article noted that the market shrugged off Tesla's P&D miss. I think this is actually a very significant development. In previous years all the FUD surrounding such a dip, no matter any positive guidance, would have sent the stock into a downward spiral. The actual minimal drop suggests the FUD is finally beginning to lose power in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. You can only cry wolf so many times!

 

[phantasms]

This article noted that the market shrugged off Tesla's P&D miss. I think this is actually a very significant development. In previous years all the FUD surrounding such a dip, no matter any positive guidance, would have sent the stock into a downward spiral. The actual minimal drop suggests the FUD is finally beginning to lose power in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. You can only cry wolf so many times!

"Wait for it" - Aaron Burr

 

[FreqFlyer]

I very much suspect automatic blinkers/indicators will be coming soon.

The code is basically already there with FSDBeta, and would also help as a navigation tool, to tell those not using FSD when to turn, change lane etc. I can see us getting to a point where we rarely use indicators manually.

Problem with that is how does the car know where I am going to turn to? If a daily commuter, sure, the computer can learn the route but elsewhere......

 

[unk45]

There is a really good reason for the clutch and why the Semi has but the passenger vehicles don't

The two climb motors have a significantly higher gear ratio, close to double the cruising motor, there is a whole another stage to them. The climb motors are likely reaching 20k rpm under 100 mph, we can calculate that, been meaning to do that for a while, just need to find a bit of time

View attachment 979237

On a Model S/X, you will only get to 20k rpm at over 200 mph. The problem is that rpm related losses (core losses) grows somewhere between to the square to the cube of rpm, so if your motor is off but running at close to 20k rpm with you just cruising it can be a significant power hog, on top of you also having to spend energy to cool it

Here is an example from some real data from real motors, these are palm sized ones weighting around 1 kg and capable of 3 to 5 hp, so power density is comparable to the motors Tesla makes, but the principle is the same, it becomes a heater just by being off and spun fast

View attachment 979240

Another way to look at it is that when you need the power, you need to spin a motor really fast because that is where it's most efficient and can make the most power, but spinning it really fast when little power is needed, such as cruising on flat, it's really inefficient

A Semi needs around 80 kW for cruising of flat road fully loaded, a single motor spinning at half of the 20k rpm limit can easily do that all day long and efficiently

A few more plots of one of the motors from the graph above, first one is an efficiency map and second is a power output map, ignore all the white labels and lines, not relevant

Let's say we need low power for cruising at just 640 W, if we spin the motor at 11000 rpm, we will operate at 75% efficiency and have 160 W of waste heat, or we can operate at 2500 rpm at 90%+ efficiency and have just 64 W of waste heat

Now for the other scenario, climbing a big hill and we need 2.5 kW of power, at 2500 rpm this would be 80% efficiency and 500 W of waste heat, that motor would cook in no time, but at 11000 rpm we operate at 92% efficiency and just 200 W of waste heat, way more manageable

View attachment 979241
View attachment 979242

Now circling back to why the passenger cars doesn't need the axle clutch, the motor are always operating at slow rpm at normal driving speeds, such as the power lost is so low that it doesn't warrant the complexity added

The Semi is pushing the motors to it's limit, from the above about needing high rpm for high power, in my opinion the two acceleration motors are putting significantly more power each than the cruise motor, if we go from the gear ratios and 1500 hp Dan gave us, I would say each climb motor does close to 600 hp while the cruise motor are on the high 300s hp

Interesting but in one respect not really correct:
"Another way to look at it is that when you need the power, you need to spin a motor really fast because that is where it's most efficient and can make the most power,"
An electric motor is not more efficient at higher rotation speeds:
"By inserting resistance into the rotor circuit and varying the resistance, it is possible to obtain the maximum torque at any desired slip or speed."

Maximum Torque Condition of Induction Motor & Expression

In this article, we will discuss the condition for which the induction motor delivers the maximum torque. The torque of induction motor

www.electricalvolt.com

Since in the Semi case and most use cases for BEV torque is more important than other measures, this article deals with torque. Unlike combustion engines, electric motors tend to like modest rotational speed. In the specific case of BEV applications, specially Plaid and Semi, both have carbon fiber wrapping to allow high motor speeds with high reliability. That is, we understand, not to increase power but to simplify drivetrain. Since the drivetrains with multiple gears and associated inefficiencies are unnecessary if the power sources do not have tight rotational limits (i.e. Diesel, gasoline, hydrogen, an ICE at all) there much increase efficiency, reduced weight and complexity by eliminating traditional transmissions and the associated moving parts.

As every BEV driver senses, BEV electric motors have incredible initial torque so every one is quick 'off the mark', whether or not it is capable of high speed.
That fact is the physical reminder that an electric motor has high starting torque. That gearing does play a major part in torque multiplication is exactly why Tesla Semi has different gearing on the two rear axles. That is not to have higher rotor speed but to reduce rotor speed at low load conditions, so as to reduce the heat/energy loss for higher rotational speeds, so disconnecting the low speed motor at highway speed.

 

[NicoV]

Problem with that is how does the car know where I am going to turn to? If a daily commuter, sure, the computer can learn the route but elsewhere......

By always using the navigation, even for routes you’re very familiar with. That prevents losing time in traffic jams (sometimes even police controls).

 

[scaesare]

Not specifically investment related so main post in a more appropriate forum, but there has been interest here in Cybertruck sightings, given it's impending release, so: Cybertruck working at Starabse TX

 

[FreqFlyer]

As I wrote before, the last rework of the S was an unforced error. Not only was it delayed months, but it moved the long range away from its market. Black trim is fine for the hot rod to differentiate it, but look at the Long Range’s competition. Almost all bright with considerably more options. If Tesla is going to stay in the upscale market ,they need to move to the market. I know never a popular opinion around here.

That is the question isn't? Does Tesla let the S/X grow stale or introduce a true flagship with the latest battery tech and platform. I can see an argument for either way.

1. Elon's ego and personality will not allow the Model S to be sidelined in attention by the now crowded luxury EV ( more debuting in two years) market and responds with a new Model S that leaves the competition in a fetal position in the corner whimpering. As I stated before, add two more doors to the Roadster and call it a day. Make the Model X a true, three row CUV with room and go after the KIa EV9 market (more competitors have products coming in that space in two years, and frankly Tesla does not).

2. Or...The Model S/X are pretty much paid for and every one sold is profit gravy. They have done their job and there are more pressing projects to fund than two niche products. India and countries like it are more apt to buy Model 2s or whatever its called than a highend sedan and CUV. More money to be made from the sub Model 3 car than next gen Model S that may not move the sales needle. Tesla can keep lowering prices of the S/X to a point. The backstop is the 3/Y.

Just because robots "Iceman" and "Wolverine" (if they are still there) are paid for, doesn't mean Tesla will keep making the S/X if sales continue to trend downward.

Old video

 

[-=buzz=-]

I honestly feel that Tesla should rapid flash the brake lights anytime the vehicle stops rapidly, ie stops above a threshold like ~0.75 G's or so. Since they're computers on wheels, safety features like that are trivial. Reducing the odds of a rear-end due to a sudden stop by enhanced visibility seems like a no brainer to me.

At least the EU/swiss versions already do so.
As does a 2014 Kia...

 

[UkNorthampton]

From a longer post elsewhere, I thought it might be useful to show the percentage of market Tesla has captured in Turkey (nearly 6%) & compare to VW & Toyota.. This is 6% of ALL DRIVE TRAINS and ALL CAR TYPES - with a single car - Model Y from Berlin. No S/3/X

Turkey is having a surge in car sales, even so Tesla was able to take 5.95% of Turkey's car sales (ODMD September 2023) - 4,700 of 78,971

Just for info, just look at Tesla vs Toyota & VW - astonishing, especially if you beliveve as I do that Turkey supply is restricted by Tesla due to Berlin production limitations, port IT system failures & Tesla's reported allocation of 10,000 cars for the whole of 2023.

Brand	Turkey made	Imported	Total
TESLA		4,700	4,700 (5.95%)
TOGG	2,204		2,204
TOYOTA	1,586	857	2,443
VOLKSWAGEN		4,857	4,857
VOLVO		924	924
TOPLAM: (total for all brands)	26,442	52,529	78,971

 

[2daMoon]

SELL SELL SELL!!!!!

GM delivered 18 EV Silverado pickups in Q3

Wasn't it Paul Revere who said, "The competition is coming, the competition is coming"... oh, wait, that's not what he said.

I guess it was GJ and Toilet Boy who said that, wasn't it?

Edit: noting how in all actuality Tesla is yet to deliver a CT, but still...

 

[FreqFlyer]

SELL SELL SELL!!!!!

GM delivered 18 EV Silverado pickups in Q3

Wasn't it Paul Revere who said, "The competition is coming, the competition is coming"... oh, wait, that's not what he said.

I guess it was GJ and Toilet Boy who said that, wasn't it?

Edit: noting how in all actuality Tesla is yet to deliver a CT, but still...

Surprised there are trucks delivered this early. Mass production does not start till next spring.

 

[Krugerrand]

The horn is mostly there to give you something to do while waiting for a crash. I can't recall using it (except to test the camera save on honk) in the past couple of decades.

Typically I find it reflexively faster to flip the bird than honk the horn. ‍ I just have never needed to use the horn enough in decades of driving to have developed any muscle memory substance. I literally have to take a split second to a) remember I even have a horn and, b) where exactly is the sweet spot on the wheel to get it to go off. By that time I can have done a whole Shakespearean soliloquy in sign language.

Seriously, as a serial defensive driver I just don’t often find myself in situations requiring the use of a horn. I quite literally expect people to not look, not be aware, or simply not care when they drive, so I stay out of everyone’s way. With CyberTruck in my arsenal, I may consider changing that way of driving altogether.

It was quite recently that I discovered there are a number of people who drive by feel. As in, they purposely hit curbs and objects as a way to park etc… and to move about the world in their vehicles.

Extrapolating based on that discovery and the intense focus on horn placement; I suspect these people drive by horn a lot and why they’re so upset they can’t locate it via muscle memory.

 

[2daMoon]

The SP just jumped.

Did somebody honk the horn at it?

if so, do it again please

 

[Krugerrand]

Having lived in 16 countries during my peripatetic and, perhaps, unstable, life I do have a perspective on differences among people. I've noticed significant differences based on family background, ethnic identity and national residence/education/employment elements.

Since Tesla, much more since TSLA I've noticed much less differences among the road-vehicle-owning people regarding TSLA than about almost anything else. Among my present day acquaintances are people who live on every continent other than Antartica. Most of those with whom I have close connections are now TSLA shareholders, whether they live in countries served by TSLA or not. As for the British Isles and the subset thereof called colloquially 'Brits' my three decades or so living among them, working with them etc has taught me they cannot be clearly categorized and more than can be US citizens, which does not stop many people from forming firm opinions of how 'they' behave.

The TSLA factor though is always intriguing to me precisely because TSLA and Tesla are 'larger than life' in many places. Among my present acquaintances people in Brazil, former Russians living in other countries, Pakistani, Indian, Iranian, Greek, various Arab countries and a few in the USA too all are now TSLA shareholders. It's bizarre, perhaps, but nearly all the people I know well are TSLA shareholders, many of them without knowing anything of my own Tesla history.

As we think about volatility, Elon's 'bigger than life' image and worldwide expansion we might well realize that TSLA and Tesla awareness and positive image is very widespread among people who are likely part of the addressable market for Tesla products whenever Tesla enters their markets. Despite the NA, EU, China centric present business the global opportunities for sales and shareholding are enormous.

In the process of all that the local flavours, colours and perspectives will continue to become more important. Just consider that the Tesla UI is now available in more than twenty (20) languages. Tesl already knows the opportunity but production for cars, TE and trucks is still ramping as are countries served.

Sorry about these thoughts just now but @Krugerrand always makes me think! Cats everywhere, even my prized Onça-pintada, appreciate his contributions.
For the record I have only owned one vehicle branded after the English name for that graceful, reclusive cat.

By the way, many of those non-resident owners of TSLA do NOT have access to margin accounts for US-domiciled shares so these tend to be HODL, not least because many have high transaction costs. Many too live where imported vehicles have significant extra costs. TSLA is already negotiating to open various types of TE businesses, including energy storage and the growing propensity for something akin to VPP. We should not be surprised if elements if Tesla Energy evolves to be the first entry to many markets, with Supercharging being in place as Tesla vehicles begin to arrive.The Tesla model simply is irresistible!
(this last paragraph was suggested to me by experience this week with a pair of TSLA shareholders who are presently installing storage products to serve their residence in Brazil, where they are planning to house their BEVs. They are both frustrated that Tesla is not yet in Brazil, but they continue to hold their 2018 Model 3 reservations,)

My post, in my head, was directly related to Tesla. I just didn’t explain that part because why isn’t everyone able to read my mind. ‍

For instance when Tesla first started producing the S, my ‘English’ acquaintances and business colleagues unanimously wrinkled their noses and declared quite staunchly they’d NEVER buy one nor would anyone they know because the interior of the car was not nearly posh enough. We heard that argument here as well as all the others about it’s too big, too this, too that, and now all the new complaints.

Not everyone is going to be happy about what Tesla/Elon does or does not do. But they should hurry up and buy what they want for whatever reasons they have because the day is coming they’ll have a lot less selection, and God forbid they have to lower their standards and buy a car from that company that makes stalkless yoke vehicles run by that fool.

 

[Krugerrand]

As I wrote before, the last rework of the S was an unforced error. Not only was it delayed months, but it moved the long range away from its market. Black trim is fine for the hot rod to differentiate it, but look at the Long Range’s competition. Almost all bright with considerably more options. If Tesla is going to stay in the upscale market ,they need to move to the market. I know never a popular opinion around here.

You’re assuming Tesla wants to stay in that market. Here’s my unpopular opinion I’ve stated for years; Tesla doesn’t want to be in that market and will move out of it for all intents and purposes because it no longer serves the mission. We’re way past proof of concept. We’re now trying for widespread affordability.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Funding Secured!

Just got a check in the mail for my "share of the Fair Fund established by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in Elon Musk, Civil Action No. 1:18-cv-8865-(LJL) and Tesla, Inc., Civil Action No. 1:18-cv-8947-(LJL)."

I hadn't heard a peep about this since I put in my claim over a year ago. Suddenly, a check!

Of the amount that I lost that was eligible for a claim, I'm recovering about half. I lost a bunch more that wasn't eligible for a claim because rather than buying shares I traded some shares for calls. Seemed like a good idea at the time.

My post from last June describing how this was supposed to work is #344,744. It's been only five years or so since the SEC screwed us over. And TSLA is up about 10x. Glad to get something back. And, of course, I keep in mind that if things went the way Elon expected at the time, we'd all be out of the company's stock because it would be private.

Any suggestions on how to put this $34,677.94 to use? I'm tempted to try the long shot -- 10 Jan 2026, 510 calls. Or I could just get about 136 shares. Or I could earmark it for buying an Optimus when it finally appears in a few years?

 

[elasalle]