Nope, I'm complaining about people saying Elon 'promised' Q3 deliveries recently (or ever) .Are you also complaining that the Cybertruck is late? (Can't tell) If so... my message to all the complainers is... look, they've got to get the Cybertruck right. Just like every other vehicle they've released. Do you want them to release a shambols shoddy product - but on the original schedule? And we then have to endure years of FUD related to quality? Just so you can say "they're on schedule with their product releases"
IMO we will see Cybertrucks released to customers this year, but they reserve the right to polish ot and make it as good as possible. I think the release date will be known by the end of next week.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
cliff harris
Member
TBH a lot has happened in the world since the cybertruck announcement. I'm sure geopolitics and global supply chains and trying to push the limits of battery/EV tech are all problems that would stretch the best and most capable minds. Covid didnt help, wars in europe don't help. The cybertruck is almost here, we see new sightings every day. There are semi's in customer hands, doing real world work.
Its been a long wait, but its easy to always fixate on whats not delivered, rather than what has be. FSD progress looks good, Highland is out, and well received. Not long until we cross CT and semi off the list.
Its been a long wait, but its easy to always fixate on whats not delivered, rather than what has be. FSD progress looks good, Highland is out, and well received. Not long until we cross CT and semi off the list.
I'm accepting short pithy entries for the Q3 Bingo card for next week. Replies here: Bingo Card for 23Q3 Conference Call
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Perhaps you don't have the necessary security clearance to access the Secret Tesla Master Plan.
If that is the case it would be understandable how you could be out of the loop on the bigger picture.
Here's the relevant bit, taken from the document linked above, published in 2006.
Don't tell anyone I've shared this secret information publicly, my Secret-level clearance could be revoked.
"The strategy of Tesla is to enter at the high end of the market, where customers are prepared to pay a premium, and then drive down market as fast as possible to higher unit volume and lower prices with each successive model."
Maybe this will help to grok the concept that there may be other, valid, documented reasons for lowering prices that have absolutely nothing at all to do with any alleged absence of demand.
The reason why Tesla prices have "dropped so much" is simply because they are making more of them. Economy of Scale allows them to bring prices lower as production capacity grows.
Tesla's goal isn't to maximize profits, it is to get as many of these cars in the hands of drivers as quickly as they possibly can. To accomplish this, they closely monitor supply and demand and frequently adjust prices, both up and down, in order to regulate the flow of vehicles from factory to consumer.
The more vehicles Tesla makes, the lower the prices will be.
If you see prices going down on Tesla vehicles, that is but a sign that everything is going according to plan.
Suggested reading:
Last edited:
And remember, legacy car manufacturers adjust the prices just as often. You just don't see it because the adjustments are hidden behind the dealer network. Among other things, this takes power away from the consumer because it's never known what the actual price is (until the papers are signed).Perhaps you don't have the necessary security clearance to access the Secret Tesla Master Plan.
If that is the case it would be understandable how you could be out of the loop on the bigger picture.
Here's the relevant bit, taken from the document linked above, published in 2006.
Don't tell anyone I've shared this secret information publicly, my Secret-level clearance could be revoked.
"The strategy of Tesla is to enter at the high end of the market, where customers are prepared to pay a premium, and then drive down market as fast as possible to higher unit volume and lower prices with each successive model."
Maybe this will help to grok the concept that there may be other, valid, documented reasons for lowering prices that have absolutely nothing at all to do with any alleged absence of demand.
The reason why Tesla prices have "dropped so much" is simply because they are making more of them. Economy of Scale allows them to bring prices lower as production capacity grows.
Tesla's goal isn't to maximize profits, it is to get as many of these cars in the hands of drivers as quickly as they possibly can. To accomplish this, they closely monitor supply and demand and frequently adjust prices, both up and down, in order to regulate the flow of vehicles from factory to consumer.
The more vehicles Tesla makes, the lower the prices will be.
If you see prices going down on Tesla vehicles, that is but a sign that everything is going according to plan.
Suggested reading:
It has been speculated that these are for front and rear castings for Highland Model 3 being built at Fremont.
If possible, it makes sense to move all Model 3/Y produced in the US to front and rear castings and structural 4680 battery packs, especially in 2024.
The requires a "step change" in 4680 cell production, what I was suggesting was the rebuilt Kato Rd facility would produce more 4680s than previously.
4680 production in Nevada could also supply cells to Fremont & Austin, once that is built.
The best possible scenario is that they can squeeze in a small pilot line to build a small number of Model 3 Highland cars, in Fremont Q1 2024 while keeping the existing line running. If that can't be done, and they need to shutdown the line, I think the shutdown would occur after they have built sufficient inventory for Q1 deliveries.
If the speculation on castings is wrong, then I have no idea what is happening.
But I think the castings and a rebooted Kato Rd should be ready by Q1 2024.
One more possibility I hadn't considered. The articles I've seen were a little fragmented and confusing, it's not clear to me if the were referring to sand-casting in regard to prototype parts, or for production of the molds/dies. I assumed they were discussing casting the dies, simply because I never associate sand molds with high pressure die casting. Need to look them over again and pay more attention. Now, I never considered the possibilities of sand casting molds being used for "one shot" use in the high-pressure die casting machines. Sand casting is typically used with a gravity fill, they can't stand much pressure (the sand is fairly fragile and will crumble under a fast, high pressure fill). Now it's possible that the rapid prototype molds are both more durable than a conventional sand-cast mold due to the use of an RP process, and also possible that entire sand-filled part will be housed within a 5-sided open box, with the box supplying the strength to withstand the pressure of casting, and the sand merely providing the shape of the mold cavity. I still don't THINK that would work, given the thousands of tons of clamping pressure required simply to hold the mold halves together and the very high flow rates required. But...maybe? Would be seriously cool if true.
Last edited:
Thumper
Active Member
Count me as skeptical of the entire sand casting theory. Regardless of the problems cited by others, any casting done on site will require a large enough furnace to melt the full charge of the mold cavity plus spurs, risers and runners. The metal can't just be liquid, it must be exactly the right temperature and it is not a sure thing that the cavity will completely fill on the first try. The mold may have to be tweaked. I may be wrong but I don't see this happening for a limited run like dies for the gigapress.
Last edited:
The "die-shop" at Austin does have what seems to be a large furnace mounted outside the building.
If there is any sandcasting happening, that is the most likely location for it.
I do think that Reuters may have jumbled up the information, and their source may have only have a partial understanding.
At a minimum, the ability to rapidly iterate on prototypes is very valuable.
We also suggested that the sandcast molds could be 3d-printed, we know that is possible, we don't currently know how it is done.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
A developer API also introduces big risks. Suddenly, there's a whole new way to cause system failures that can affect everybody. Tesla has been very good so far at avoiding security-related bugs. But once this door is opened, it's a whole new ballgame.
If you know nothing about this, here's a term to understand that will provide a conceptual context:
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Tesla CyberBeer + Stein Set in the North American Store...
Edit: There is also a Cyber Bottle Opener
Edit: There is also a Cyber Bottle Opener
Last edited:
Tesla improves in Universum's 'Most Attractive Employers' list
Tesla has made its first appearance in Universum's "Most Attractive Employers" list, which asks students across the globe which companies they want to work for.
www.teslarati.com
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
This is true (pending IRS guidance) for all China/LFP-equipped cars sold in the USA. It does not (again, subject to updated IRS rules) apply to leased cars, which will be able to capture the entire $7,500 IRA credit as a commercial vehicle (I defer to @mongo for the correct IRS interpretation).
And, lo-and-behold, what did we see today? A $100/mth drop in the cost on a 36-mth term lease. That's a total of $3,600 which is SUSPICIOUSLY close to the $3,750 battery portion which China/LFP-cars may lose starting Jan 2nd, 2024 due to battery sourcing requirements of the IRA.
Now, where does this money come from to finance the leases? I submit that Tesla raised over a billion USD in bonds last month from Wall-E and that is this leasing program that they are intending to fund.
Now, I just wonder if the lease-backers will have some residual ownership of the returned cars? This is yet another way that Tesla could be planning to build it's own fleet of 3/Y cars for the Tesla Network (robotaxis). Note well that there cars will ALL be long-life LFP-battery equipped, which is the best choice for high annual-mileage fleet vehicles.
Nawh, Elon can't play 4-D chess at this level. Must be a scam... /s
Cheers to the ScramJets!
Carl Raymond
Active Member
Perhaps you don't have the necessary security clearance to access the Secret Tesla Master Plan.
If that is the case it would be understandable how you could be out of the loop on the bigger picture.
Here's the relevant bit, taken from the document linked above, published in 2006.
Don't tell anyone I've shared this secret information publicly, my Secret-level clearance could be revoked.
"The strategy of Tesla is to enter at the high end of the market, where customers are prepared to pay a premium, and then drive down market as fast as possible to higher unit volume and lower prices with each successive model."
Maybe this will help to grok the concept that there may be other, valid, documented reasons for lowering prices that have absolutely nothing at all to do with any alleged absence of demand.
The reason why Tesla prices have "dropped so much" is simply because they are making more of them. Economy of Scale allows them to bring prices lower as production capacity grows.
Tesla's goal isn't to maximize profits, it is to get as many of these cars in the hands of drivers as quickly as they possibly can. To accomplish this, they closely monitor supply and demand and frequently adjust prices, both up and down, in order to regulate the flow of vehicles from factory to consumer.
The more vehicles Tesla makes, the lower the prices will be.
If you see prices going down on Tesla vehicles, that is but a sign that everything is going according to plan.
Suggested reading:
Elon says that he thinks about the fall of Rome. I’m betting he at least sometimes thinks about the day CRT televisions vanished from the shelves of electrical stores.
What caused that exactly? Was it flat screen TVs that were better than CRT units, but more expensive? Or was it because the flat screens were now *cheaper*, such that no right minded person would touch the CRT with a barge pole?
The mission is to…. (you guys know the rest).
The first widely available flat screen TVs (e.g., Philips plasma) in the mid-'90s were like $16k. As prices dropped, CRTs quickly went out of favor. By the early 2000s it was over. The switch to digital TV came about then as well. So a lot of folks were upgrading anyway. We just sent off our last CRT TV for recycling a few months ago. Literally had to pay to have it taken away. Same story with computer monitors. (Though I still have my original Mac+ hiding from my wife in my workshop.)
Interestingly, flat panel displays have been around the computer industry for quite some time. The PLATO system developed at the U of Illinois used them in the 1970s. (I used PLATO a bit back then.) Though the pixels were orange against a black background. So really an "black and orange" display, rather than "black and white". But generally CRTs have been used in the computer industry until the LCD and LED displays became economical.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
$167 probably is a lot more fun than spending $167 on taking a small family to a cheap restaurant. There is something fundamentally wrong with this equivalence in prices.
Oreo milkshake at Cheesecake Factory is $10.95 (add a 20% tip plus for a family of 4 and you are over $50). You won't be buying steaks to get up to $167.
Oreo milkshake at Cheesecake Factory is $10.95 (add a 20% tip plus for a family of 4 and you are over $50). You won't be buying steaks to get up to $167.
The attack surface hasn’t really changed. There was a REST API (developed for the Tesla app) that is now a bit expanded with more granular security. Any company that has an app has the same security concerns.A developer API also introduces big risks. Suddenly, there's a whole new way to cause system failures that can affect everybody. Tesla has been very good so far at avoiding security-related bugs. But once this door is opened, it's a whole new ballgame.
If you know nothing about this, here's a term to understand that will provide a conceptual context:
The last words about the burned Tesla on an ice lake from a couple of years ago: Man who swindled 5 free cars from Tesla gets 4 years sentence
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
