Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cliff harris]

Has anyone seen the current Honda ads? Shows a series of CGI vehicles, including a rendering of the upcoming car they are licensing from Chevy. In the small print it says ‘imaginary vehicles shown throughout’ and it also shows a VTOL and some guy playing with a toy moon station.

The punchline is ‘We won’t ever stop dreaming’, I expected them to say innovating but perhaps some truth in advertising crept in!

Toyota are the same. It seems like a lot of legay auto companies advertising strategy is to plaintively cry "we are still relevant! maybe!".
Meanwhile Tesla casually films the actual-real cybertruck towing an actual-real rocket engine for a promo...

 

[madodel]

What, again? That must be I believe the 10th leapfrog in the last 5 years. Very impressive indeed.

/s

Does it also tell you before the wheels fall off?

 

[madodel]

Has anyone seen the current Honda ads? Shows a series of CGI vehicles, including a rendering of the upcoming car they are licensing from Chevy. In the small print it says ‘imaginary vehicles shown throughout’ and it also shows a VTOL and some guy playing with a toy moon station.

The punchline is ‘We won’t ever stop dreaming’, I expected them to say innovating but perhaps some truth in advertising crept in!

Reminds me of the KIA TV ad several years ago with a dealer lot full of KIAs blinking their lights to music. Never saw an actual KIS do that though. But my Model X does.

 

[Todd Burch]

Wow, while Elon was distracted with Twitter Toyota just leapfrogged Tesla with new game-changing technology.

Toyota's FT-3e EV concept displays your charge level on the side of the car

The Toyota FT-3e EV shows your remaining battery level before you even get in. It's debuting at the Japan Mobility Show 2023.

electrek.co

Gee I would love for everyone to know the charge state of my car. Hopefully it will show my social security number on the side too, for kicks.

Toyota is lost...

 

[MountainRatMat]

Some important numbers from Limiting Factor guy Jordan. Further savings I think by avoiding transport from afar when the cells/pack is made at the car factory.

View attachment 982691

Spoiler: Link

https://twitter.com/x/status/1713966694626914670

Is this a WAG or is there are good source. I've come to question The Limiting Factor's numbers a lot after seeing some of his other predictions.

I think it is fine to have good educated guesses but sometimes I feel this his numbers are quite optimistic.

 

[MC3OZ]

FTFY. Pepsico/Tesla Semi already hauls the legal max load: 82K lbs. It's the range and cost that are variables.

They will want more range and faster charging for the sleeper-cab version, and that also requires a charging network.

For the day-cab version, some might need longer range but many could be happy with lower cost and the ability to haul a bit more freight within that 82K lbs (combined) weight limit.

What they have at present is a small pilot line. I think it is likely that the build/ramp of 4680 cell production at Sparks can keep pace with the build/ramp of the main semi line.

 

[StapleGun]

Reminds me of the KIA TV ad several years ago with a dealer lot full of KIAs blinking their lights to music. Never saw an actual KIS do that though. But my Model X does.

They might as well save some of their art budget and just start showing Teslas in their ads now like Exxon does.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

They might as well save some of their art budget and just start showing Teslas in their ads now like Exxon does.

View attachment 982705

Sad to say but $3.79 is actually cheap af.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I know everyone is excited about the CT, and I think its awesome too, but I have to admit, the climate-change-campaigner in me would much rather any battery cells go into more tesla semi's that CTs. A lot of CTs will be a fashion statement, or an everyday vehicle to commute in, where frankly a 60kwh battery in a much smaller vehicle would have been fine. They are also going to be driven for 2 hours a day on average max.
Tesla semi will be in constant use, replacing huge gas guzzling vehicles, that absolutely need big battery packs. In terms of reducing emissions, building a semi is dramatically more important than a CT.
Personally I would have preferred a small model 2 before the CT.
Also there are other mass-market EV pickups now, but not a real mass-market semi competitor.

I am really hoping Tesla can scale batteries fast enough to make simultaneous ramps of semi and CT a possibility. I am disappointed none of the earnings call questions push the semi though...

@cliff harris , I think you are reading too much into Ford's CEO, Jim Farley's, bash that Cybertruck is for "Silicon Valley people, (not) real people who do real work."
Pick-up trucks in North America have always been used predominantly as work vehicles, whether by tradesmen, landscapers, for snow removal, for towing small recreational vehicles or campers, etc. the list is endless. In Europe work vans are popular. In North America, it is pickups. I would guess that perhaps <5% of pickup trucks are used for a daily commute to the office. The Cybertruck, with its external battery ports for power tools and equipment will be ideal for construction crews and the like. They will sell like hotcakes. One Semi with a 800 kWh battery pack would be equal to eight Cybertruck with 100 kWh battery pack (or 5.3 Cybertrucks with 150 kWh battery pack).

I do agree that Semi is an important priority, however pickup trucks are also just as important, if not more so (in North America). Once the pickup truck market goes EV, all other markets will fold like cards. The pickup truck market is the bellwether of vehicles. Ford is finding out how difficult it is to do pickup EVs. Rivian is trying but won't have volume for many years. It is up to Tesla.

Thankfully Tesla will build out both Cybertruck and Semi profitably, as quickly as possible, and of the highest quality standards.
And Tesla will build out the Model 2 commuter car too.
Wow, what a company to be invested in and to believe in. Bring it!

 

[Words of HABIT]

Has anyone seen the current Honda ads? Shows a series of CGI vehicles, including a rendering of the upcoming car they are licensing from Chevy. In the small print it says ‘imaginary vehicles shown throughout’ and it also shows a VTOL and some guy playing with a toy moon station.

The punchline is ‘We won’t ever stop dreaming’, I expected them to say innovating but perhaps some truth in advertising crept in!

This?

Honda manufactures the Honda Jet, and they are well known in Formula 1 racing (ugh!, noisy gas and oil cars, I know...I know) as the powertrain behind Red Bull's Max Verstappen who is currently unstoppable. This does add a panache to the brand.

I drove four Hondas ('83, '91, '98 and '08) prior to discovering Tesla, so a lot of good memories there. This is what EVs must overcome. I did it in a heartbeat, however others are more nostalgic. If Honda sold a BEV, I would definitlely consider it. For me they already had a winner with the Honda e, however it does not appear they can manufacture them profitably so the Honda e will just remain a concept vehicle.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If Honda sold a BEV, I would definitlely consider it.

Honda's problem, indeed all Japan Auto's problem, is sourcing batteries. They are deathly afraid (probably rightly so) of becoming dependant upon China for a key component of their native auto industry. China wants to dethrone Japan as the World's biggest auto exporter, and could easily do so if they controlled Japan's access to battery supply. China has done it to them before in other industries.

IMO, what Japan needs to do is become become a 1st-mover in Malaysia, get access to nickel and other strategic minerals, and setup local manufacturing with a friendly partner nation. But Toyoda-san prefers pretend innovatation: "Solid state is only 5 years away (and always will be)." That way, the old guard can be safely in their graves before their economy collapses, so all good, rite?

 

[phoggy123]

@cliff harris , I think you are reading too much into Ford's CEO, Jim Farley's, bash that Cybertruck is for "Silicon Valley people, (not) real people who do real work."
Pick-up trucks in North America have always been used predominantly as work vehicles, whether by tradesmen, landscapers, for snow removal, for towing small recreational vehicles or campers, etc. the list is endless. In Europe work vans are popular. In North America, it is pickups. I would guess that perhaps <5% of pickup trucks are used for a daily commute to the office. The Cybertruck, with its external battery ports for power tools and equipment will be ideal for construction crews and the like. They will sell like hotcakes. One Semi with a 800 kWh battery pack would be equal to eight Cybertruck with 100 kWh battery pack (or 5.3 Cybertrucks with 150 kWh battery pack).

I do agree that Semi is an important priority, however pickup trucks are also just as important, if not more so (in North America). Once the pickup truck market goes EV, all other markets will fold like cards. The pickup truck market is the bellwether of vehicles. Ford is finding out how difficult it is to do pickup EVs. Rivian is trying but won't have volume for many years. It is up to Tesla.

Thankfully Tesla will build out both Cybertruck and Semi profitably, as quickly as possible, and of the highest quality standards.
And Tesla will build out the Model 2 commuter car too.
Wow, what a company to be invested in and to believe in. Bring it!

We don't remotely share the same experience. In the midwest, it's trucks everywhere...and most of these people aren't building homes or doing labor. In the midwest it's probably greater than 50% of trucks never have more than mulch or luggage in the bed of the pickup. Until the reviews come out and MT does a heads up comparison with people that use these for "work" I think they will be regarded in the same way the hummer, Rivian, and probably Jeep is purchased/used. It's going to take some time for people to see it as a work vehicle like an F150 is. Range needs to be real, towing needs to be real, durability needs to be real....

 

[MC3OZ]

It's going to take some time for people to see it as a work vehicle like an F150 is. Range needs to be real, towing needs to be real, durability needs to be real....

IMO Tesla knows the CT needs to deliver in these areas, the unusual aesthetics of the CT are partially required to hit the required specs.

The first CT on a job site / farm, hopefully sells a lot more, on that site, or in that area.

My thinking is for a work truck what it can do is way more important how it looks, and more important than the brand. Next important after what it can do is, what it costs including running costs. If it is doing real work, running costs a big part of ROI, as is time off road for maintenance.

Only a fool buys an inferior truck for reasons of brand loyalty.

Most successful people on building sites, or farms, are not fools.

For the city truck driver market mostly buying a truck for looks, size, holidays/recreation and the occasional bit or work, CT has them covered.

I agree that range when towing, and fast charging when towing needs to work.

A lot of towing is boats and trailers is around the local area, 30-60 minutes towing a boat before putting it in the water is the maximum amount of time most people want to spend,

 

[Drumheller]

For amusement, I share this real post made by the SEC a few hours ago. The replies are entertaining.

Screenshot

Live link

https://twitter.com/x/status/1714020932509982771

 

[Fred42]

IMO Tesla knows the CT needs to deliver in these areas, the unusual aesthetics of the CT are partially required to hit the required specs.

The first CT on a job site / farm, hopefully sells a lot more, on that site, or in that area.

My thinking is for a work truck what it can do is way more important how it looks, and more important than the brand. Next important after what it can do is, what it costs including running costs. If it is doing real work, running costs a big part of ROI, as is time off road for maintenance.

Only a fool buys an inferior truck for reasons of brand loyalty.

Most successful people on building sites, or farms, are not fools.

Brand loyalty is a big deal with private and small business pickup buyers, which is at least half the US market. Not easily overcome.

 

[MC3OZ]

Brand loyalty is a big deal with private and small business pickup buyers, which is at least half the US market. Not easily overcome.

The same was said for luxury German cars in China, people need good reasons to change their mind, but with enough good reasons, many people can change their mind.

There was a time when Nokia mobile phones had some brand loyalty.

Ford does have a fairly good electric pickup, good enough to keep some customers, assuming production volumes are sufficient.

 

[Electroman]

Cybertruck is coming.

2021: Cybertruck is coming
2022: Cybertruck is coming
2023: Cybertruck is coming
2024: Cybertruck is co...

 

[Electroman]

Wow, while Elon was distracted with Twitter Toyota just leapfrogged Tesla with new game-changing technology.

Toyota's FT-3e EV concept displays your charge level on the side of the car

The Toyota FT-3e EV shows your remaining battery level before you even get in. It's debuting at the Japan Mobility Show 2023.

electrek.co

From that article:

I’ve got to admit: This is pretty slick. It’s also wildly unlikely to enter production. Imagine getting a door ding and needing to replace a screen. Not exactly practical in the real world! But still, as a concept, I dig it.

 

[Electroman]

The OT curb rash discussion gave me a rash and has been exiled to Off topic galore

Moderators are following the edict of a famous eccentric billionaire who runs his own social media company:

"Freedom of speech does not mean freedom of reach"

I love that policy there and here. Keep it up mods.

 

[Xepa777]

Saw this on the Cybertruck forum. Surprised no one posted it here yet. Someone finally got a measuring tape to see if it'll fit in garages.
https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...s-w-my-measurement-tape-📏-🤣.9483/#post-185117
They also got a measurement of the bottom of the bed.

It's 78-ish inches wide.