Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Christine69420]

It is not going to be as wide.
It is not going to be as tall.
It is not going to be as long.
It is not going to have the same front.
It has no REAL exoskeleton
It has a body on frame.
It is not going to get 500 miles per charge.
It will not have the foretold energy dense batteries
It is not going to have a tailgate ramp.
It is not going to have channels for tie downs in the bed.
It is not going to have a stainless bed.
It is not going to have "bullet-proof" glass anywhere.
It is not going to have an optional ATV.
It is not going to have a yoke steering wheel.

And those are just a few of the long list of changes. The cyber we put a deposit on is not close to the vehicle that is going to be debuted in a few days. Things like the size should have been finalized before a prototype was made. It is an easy engineering issue. Bullshit to all the "it wouldn't fit in MY garage." Size matters. Elon has fallen short on every major Physical goal of the engineering of the cyber(nota)truck. Even the wiper blade.
Pretty much it is a Model X with some flat steel panels, and "unique" look.

And now my point: We invest in TSLA because we believed in Musk. He ain't right.

But it is The Cybertruck!

 

[lafrisbee]

CT:

• Is Wide enough (how would being wider make it better?)
• Is Tall enough (how would being taller make it better?)
• Is Long enough (cavernous interior and a 6.5' bed and able to carry 4' x 8' sheet with the tailgate down is the spec for most people)
• Front styling looks more like the CT reveal version than does the front of any other pickup on the market
• Just because the 3mm thick body panels mount to sub-structure does not prevent them from providing an exoskeleton that can't be dented with a sledge hammer or pierced by small arms fire (having an endo-skeleton and an exo-skeleton are not mutually exclusive)
• Is NOT body on frame by any stretch of the imagination (can't envision removing a few bolts to separate body/bed from a rolling drive-train/frame)
• A little early to make any claims about the battery / range, as this will be unique for each version of the truck
• The tailgate ramp would have been a handy item, though fraught with potential for issues and higher costs to manufacture
• The logistic track in the bed would have been nice, and can easily be retrofitted for those who would like that feature
• The lighter, tougher, scratch/ding resistant bed material is an improvement
• Never was it said that the glass would be bullet proof

As it is, the CT still meets quite well with all expectations held when I placed a reservation.

Don't bet against Elon

My point isn't what the cyber NOTA truck is or is not..it is what Elon said it would be so he ain't someone you can believe.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

The skin might not be a primary load bearing structure but unless they mounted it with silly putty it's going to be part of the overall stiffness and will carry some loads just by virtue of being 3mm steel.

So saying it lacks an exoskeleton is being a bit pedantic.

 

[lascavarian]

I think what will generate some buzz come launch will be a moderate cost CT with an unexpected, margin boosting, mind blowing menu of options and augmentations. What we see revealed this week is but the canvas…

Suit up and clip in!

 

[2daMoon]

My point isn't what the cyber NOTA truck is or is not..it is what Elon said it would be so he ain't someone you can believe.

Please, in order to support this claim, do provide the quotes of what Elon said of which you take issue.
If possible, provide reference to when and where (video timestamp, etc.), so anyone can find them and have the context in which they were stated.

 

[Knightshade]

Again, the value a vehicle represents is the product of the frequency of a given task and vehicle applicability.

You commute daily or get groceries weekly, however many vehicles are capable of that task, so the value of a truck in that application is not very high.

You may only tow or carry substantial loads in the bed a few times a year, but there are NO other vehicles capable of that task, so the value of a truck in that situation may be quite high.

I think is misleading to conflate frequency with value.

But again the data we have isn't "they only tow a few times a year" it's they tow zero or for some a max of one time a year.

If I had to move a bunch of stuff 0 times a year I definitely don't need a pickup truck....but lots of people like that still buy em.

If I had to move a bunch of stuff 1 time a year I definitely don't need a pickup truck- I need a rental truck that one time because it's gonna be massively cheaper than taking the cost hit of owning a truck instead of a more practical vehicle for what I actually use a vehicle for the other 364 days a year.

What I try to keep in mind is the people that ordered 5 or 10 CTs, or more. If each of those is only allowed one purchase , the preorder book would thin fast (which is good, so people can get a CT sooner).

FWIW most folks I'm aware of who did that planned to use them as robotaxis, on the assumption FSD L5 would be done by now- I expect you're not gonna see a very high conversion rate on those deposits.

I don't think that'll make a ton of difference as even without them any reasonable ramp estimate suggests a minimum of 1-2 years to fill backorders (I guess it'll matter to folks further back in the line they get to move up- but I mean to the overall business) and by the end of that time it'll either be selling itself quite quickly to additional new customers or it won't.

i vaguely remember Elon was forced to buy twitter by the courts

Mods would probably prefer we don't rehash this- but that is not what actually happened- at all.

The courts never made any final ruling because Elon realized the unprompted offer he made to buy the company was actually binding and the court would likely reach the same conclusion if he let it run through trial, so he went through with the unsolicited purchase offer he made of his own free will, thus removing the need for the court to do anything. The idea he never wanted twitter but was "forced" to buy it anyway is complete nonsense.

 

[stevej119]

"Your post in the thread Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable was deleted. Reason: banned discussion of Elon's tweets, or name calling, or both.

• Today at 2:06 PM
• Read: Today at 2:07 PM

Today at 2:07 PM"

Seriously? My posts have been deleted because I talked about Elon and free speech? No message of explanation? No mention of who deleted my messages? Can someone direct me to "the rules" and explain why simply mentioning that "free speech" sometimes has a cost associated with it is banned?

I'm 100% a Tesla supporter and investor. I never have/never will short Tesla. I'm in it for the long haul. Please explain this to me. Does any reference whatsoever to Elon's tweets result in messages being deleted without comment?

 

[2daMoon]

"Your post in the thread Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable was deleted. Reason: banned discussion of Elon's tweets, or name calling, or both.

• Today at 2:06 PM
• Read: Today at 2:07 PM

Today at 2:07 PM"

Seriously? My posts have been deleted because I talked about Elon and free speech? No message of explanation? No mention of who deleted my messages? Can someone direct me to "the rules" and explain why simply mentioning that "free speech" sometimes has a cost associated with it is banned?

I'm 100% a Tesla supporter and investor. I never have/never will short Tesla. I'm in it for the long haul. Please explain this to me. Does any reference whatsoever to Elon's tweets result in messages being deleted without comment?

Some topics easily derail the Investor aspect of the forum and have become shouting matches. The Mods have found the simplest way to avoid this sort of problem is to ban them.

Look at this locked thread to find examples of the things they are trying to corral.

Don't take the deletion of your post personally.

 

[stevej119]

Some topics easily derail the Investor aspect of the forum and have become shouting matches. The Mods have found the simplest way to avoid this sort of problem is to ban them.

Search for the Twitter thread to find examples of the things they are trying to corral.

Don't take the deletion of your post personally.

As an investor, I find this quite disturbing. This post I'm certain will be deleted, as well. "Free Speech, Free Speech, Free Speech! Let Elon be Elon and say whatever he wants." I guess there's free speech for Elon, but not for anyone who respectfully, and I believe I was being quite respectful, suggests that you have the right to say just about anything you want, but there can be a cost associated with it. There was no shouting going on and, specifically to avoid such activity, I invited those who clicked "disagree" to direct message me if they wanted to have a conversation about it.

If you ever want to see this post again I guess you would have to take a screen shot, as I'm sure it will be deleted as well. Or maybe not, just to prove me wrong?

Mod: The logic has been explained multiple times. I deleted 11 posts, and indeed some had devolved to name-calling. Also this is a private forum; you have no right of free speech here, having agreed to the terms and conditions. Do not (anyone) follow up further. --ggr

 

[GhostSkater]

It has no REAL exoskeleton

I had stopped commenting here, but this one I have to

If you read the exoskeleton patent, in no point at it Tesla says it will be a exoskeleton as in taking load in normal usage, as in, road load, cargo as so on

This is the first sentence in the patent:

A vehicle having an exoskeleton exterior panel that provides crash resistance is described

I don't know how people missed that all that time because they hear what they want to hear, the exoskeleton design is mostly if not completely focused on crash scenarios, as in, they don't have internal crash structures, or have them in reduced number, with a side benefit of having a though exterior for day to day dings and blemishes

This means for example, on the doors they don't have to add reinforcement steel rails for side impact protection like all other vehicles, since the stainless sheet does that role

If you regularly watch Munro videos, you can see how much parts and features manufactures add just for safety in crash scenarios, and this design eliminate most if not all cost and complexity, both on manufacturing and assembly process

Vehicle With Exoskeleton Patent Application

U.S. Patent Application 20210155292 for Vehicle With Exoskeleton

uspto.report

 

[Words of HABIT]

I thought it would be interesting to see the past effects of a new Model release on the Tesla share price. I've captured the 5 month prior and 5 month after the first sales (turnover to Customers) release Event dates:

Model S - June 22, 2012
run up prior, drop off after before recovering (+8% five months after release)

Model X - Sept. 29, 2015
run up prior, significant drop off afterwards (-19% five months after release date)

Model 3 - July 28, 2017
significant run up prior, level to drop off after (-13% five months after release)

Model Y - March 13, 2020
pre-release bump up and fall back, then after release a very significant ramp up in share price.
+386% 5 months after release date, however most of this can be attributed to the covid-bump. Realization also that Tesla is not a one hit wonder.

Cybertruck - November 30th, 2023
downward pressure prior to release. Time will tell post release.

The above stats tell me the release of a new Model does not necessarily facilitate an immediate increase in TSLA share price. The Cybertruck does carry the least expectations of a new Model from shareholders with downward pressure on TSLA over the past five months. During the last quarterly conference call, Elon stated "We dug our own grave with Tesla Cybertruck". This quote is a talking point of the Media to discredit the Cybertruck, however Media are taking this out of context. The word "dug" is past tense, not present (dig) nor future tense. The real hard work of getting the prototype Cybertuck ready for mass production has already happened. Tesla only now needs to scale. I remember the Cybertruck reveal of November 21, 2019 (just over four years ago) like it was yesterday. My first impression was "Is this a joke? Will they now bring the real Cybertruck on the stage?". My impression now when viewing the latest release photos and videos of the release Cybertruck which is even more badass than the prototype (a feat only achieveable by Tesla) is "absolutely brilliant first principles thinking". Kudos to the entire Tesla Team for all their hard work over the past four years to get to where they are today, for taking the hard road. On November 21st, 2019 Tesla began digging their grave. On November 30th, 2023, Tesla will have its Lazarus moment.

 

[2daMoon]

As an investor, I find this quite disturbing. This post I'm certain will be deleted, as well. "Free Speech, Free Speech, Free Speech! Let Elon be Elon and say whatever he wants." I guess there's free speech for Elon, but not for anyone who respectfully, and I believe I was being quite respectful, suggests that you have the right to say just about anything you want, but there can be a cost associated with it. There was no shouting going on and, specifically to avoid such activity, I invited those who clicked "disagree" to direct message me if they wanted to have a conversation about it.

If you ever want to see this post again I guess you would have to take a screen shot, as I'm sure it will be deleted as well. Or maybe not, just to prove me wrong?

You do always have the option to take things personally. Nobody will take away your right to lash out.
Though they may not let you do it here.

Likewise, you can also find a more appropriated thread, or, start another thread to discuss such things, and, you may also delete your own posts if it suits you.

 

[aronth5]

Good questions. If I were to guess, and I am, I’d guess someone at the top is standing at the end of the line making sure that the vehicles leaving for the showrooms, YouTubers, and for first customers are perfect. So, I’m leaning toward a lot of elbow grease.

Obviously, Optimus has completed training by watching videos of the initial hand made production CT's and is already applying elbow grease on every CT going out the door. I feel better already knowing this.

 

[willow_hiller]

Stopped by the mall in Bethesda, MD this evening to see the Cybertruck. Besides the excellent build quality and the crowds/lines, I'm surprised that nobody has yet mentioned how Tesla is capitalizing on the buzz. When I arrived, there was a short line to get into the showroom; one of the reasons for the line was the fact that Tesla had set up a desk at the front of the store with several iPads. Every person that wanted to see the Cybertruck was asked to "Check in," and enter their contact details.

The Cybertruck was attracting a large group of people, and not all seemed super familiar with Tesla. The fellow in front of me asked an associate how many models of car Tesla had.

About an hour after my visit, Tesla followed up to see if I wanted to schedule a S3XY test drive or buy one. I'm presuming at this point they're not prompting people to reserve the Cybertruck itself because the wait-list is so long.

 

[stevej119]

You do always have the option to take things personally. Nobody will take away your right to lash out.
Though they may not let you do it here.

Likewise, you can also find a more appropriated thread, or, start another thread to discuss such things, and, you may also delete your own posts if it suits you.

Thank you for taking the time. I'll try to wrap my head around how things work in this particular thread. It didn't occur to me that discussing how statements made by a CEO could have an effect on earnings would be a banned topic.

 

[scaesare]

But again the data we have isn't "they only tow a few times a year" it's they tow zero or for some a max of one time a year.

If I had to move a bunch of stuff 0 times a year I definitely don't need a pickup truck....but lots of people like that still buy em.

Certainly "zero" as a multiplier in any value equation negates that value for that application. However, 1 does fall on the scale, and I deliberately included hauling things in the bed as an example of a infrequently used application. I've also seen your argument made for folks only loading up for vacation a couple of times a year. Or going off road. There are several applications that may not be used often, but those events are higher on the "criticality" scale for the need to have a vehicle capable of that, hence it scores high on the criticality axis for having a vehicle that has that capability. And if, although each application is only used once a year, but you use several different applications, the collective value increases.

If I had to move a bunch of stuff 1 time a year I definitely don't need a pickup truck- I need a rental truck that one time because it's gonna be massively cheaper than taking the cost hit of owning a truck instead of a more practical vehicle for what I actually use a vehicle for the other 364 days a year.

You use "definitely" there as if it's a given. I don't believe it is. I had a travel trailer and tow rig. I don't believe I've seen rigs for rent that are necessarily set up for towing a large travel-trailer/5th-wheel, with appropriate suspension, shocks, brake controllers, tires, etc... that I'd also want to load my family up and drive across country for 2 weeks. I can certainly tell you that my comfort level in driving a rig like that I don't also maintain is close to zero.

That having been said, a quick search suggests a 3/4 ton runs a bit over $200/day. call it $1500/week with fees, taxes, etc... So a 1-2 week vacation will cost you $1500-3000 just in rental for a single yearly vacation. Take the average of $2250 and multiply that by a 72 mo. loan and you're at ~$16K.

As for " masively cheaper", if talking purchase price, I've quite frankly seen luxury sedans go for as much or more than a nice tow rig. Heck, I paid more for my S than my F-350 Crew Cab Long Bed with turbo diesel... towing upgrades included. A Model Y is about $50K, lets say a Cybertruck is $70K. A quick search suggests a 3/4 ton runs a bit over $200/day. Call it $1500/week with fees, taxes, etc... So a 1-2 week vacation will cost you $1500-3000 just in rental for a single yearly vacation. Take the average of $2250 and multiply that by a 72 mo. loan and you're at ~$16K... add that to your Model Y purchase price and your massive savings evaporates. So that argument doesn't hold.

As for operation costs, the cost to for "fuel" for the Cybertruck is already substantially lower than an ICE mid-size sedan. If I have solar on my roof, energy costs may approach zero, and EV maintenance costs are also quite low. So that argument doesn't really hold either.

I often see these "you don't use it often, just go rent" arguments from folks I suspect never towed/hauled/off-roaded. Have you?

 

[Krugerrand]

As an investor, I find this quite disturbing. This post I'm certain will be deleted, as well. "Free Speech, Free Speech, Free Speech! Let Elon be Elon and say whatever he wants." I guess there's free speech for Elon, but not for anyone who respectfully, and I believe I was being quite respectful, suggests that you have the right to say just about anything you want, but there can be a cost associated with it. There was no shouting going on and, specifically to avoid such activity, I invited those who clicked "disagree" to direct message me if they wanted to have a conversation about it.

If you ever want to see this post again I guess you would have to take a screen shot, as I'm sure it will be deleted as well. Or maybe not, just to prove me wrong?

When you own your own social platform, be it a forum like this or one like what Elon owns, is the very moment you can say whatever you want when you want on said platform.

Until such time, this forum and thread have rules of which you broke one - unbeknownst to you, but known now. Being an investor has no relevance.

And rest assured you aren’t the first nor will you be the last who gets miffed.

Additionally, nothing you said in your deleted post was new, a revelation, or otherwise. Been said before. Discussed to death before. Not allowed in this thread and deleted by one of the moderators.

 

[Mengy]

My point isn't what the cyber NOTA truck is or is not..it is what Elon said it would be so he ain't someone you can believe.

Your "point" is ridiculous. You're all up in arms because a few things on the prototype CT changed during development over the last four years? And because of this you are saying Elon can't be trusted?

 

[Krugerrand]

Thank you for taking the time. I'll try to wrap my head around how things work in this particular thread. It didn't occur to me that discussing how statements made by a CEO could have an effect on earnings would be a banned topic.

No need to wrap your brain around it. Just go visit the thread you were pointed to and read it. That should clarify things for you.

 

[Knightshade]

Certainly "zero" as a multiplier in any value equation negates that value for that application. However, 1 does fall on the scale, and I deliberately included hauling things in the bed as an example of a infrequently used application.

If you go back to my original posts I specifically cite towing and off-roading as the "only a minority of truck owners actually do it" items.

Using the bed, on the contrary, I pointed out roughly 2/3rds do more than 0 or 1 times.

So I think it'd be helpful for you not to conflate those.

You use "definitely" there as if it's a given. I don't believe it is. I had a travel trailer and tow rig.

Unless you only ever used it 0 or 1 times each year you're not in the majority of truck owners we're discussing though.

Someone using it daily for a multi-week vacation is towing more than 0 or 1 times a year after all.

I admit it's unfortunate the data doesn't break out the % that is 0 vs the % that is 1, but I can think of very very few applications where it's just ONE tow a year that a rented truck (or a tow truck can't handle (for example I do know a guy who NEVER tows apart from when a neighbor gets stuck someplace and a tow truck'd do that fine)

That having been said, a quick search suggests a 3/4 ton runs a bit over $200/day. call it $1500/week with fees, taxes, etc... So a 1-2 week vacation will cost you $1500-3000 just in rental for a single yearly vacation. Take the average of $2250 and multiply that by a 72 mo. loan and you're at ~$16K.

Again, towing daily for 1-2 weeks is not the 0 or 1 time group, which is 75% of truck owners, we're discussing. (Ditto the 70% of truck owners who go off-road 0 or 1 times a year.




In any event, since trading is open tomorrow this might be better taken to one of the CT-specific threads where much of this discussion has already happened anyway- may I suggest:

Launch is Imminent

140 should be doable. One of those side by side weighs what around 1000 to 1500 lbs? Unless you are towing it inside a large Toy Hauler. 1,825lbs for the machine, trailer is around 800lbs. Toy hauler or enclosed v nose trailer are off the table.

teslamotorsclub.com

I often see these "you don't use it often, just go rent" arguments from folks I suspect never towed/hauled/off-roaded. Have you?

Yes.

In time it became so rarely that I no longer own any sort of truck or SUV (having owned both) and I just rent when needed (which again is rare). Works fine and I don't have to get garbage mileage all the rest of the year (or any mileage now that the last ICE vehicle is a Model 3)